| 基于动态 CGE 模型的碳税政策促进江苏省低碳发展研究 |
| Research on Carbon Tax Policy to Promote Low-carbon Transformation and Development of Jiangsu Province: Based on Dynamic CGE Model |
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| 中文关键词:碳税政策 动态 CGE 模型 碳减排 双重红利 |
| 英文关键词:carbon tax policy dynamic CGE model carbon emission reduction double dividend |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 科学设置碳税政策是发展低碳经济、实现我国“碳达峰，碳中和”目标的重要手段。本文以江苏省为例，利用 2017年江苏省投入产出表数据编制社会核算矩阵，构建包含 16 个部门的动态 CGE 模型，对碳税政策、不同碳税返还方式对江苏省碳减排和宏观经济社会发展的影响进行了模拟分析。研究发现：①按固定税率征收碳税，税率过低时江苏省无法按期实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标，税率过高时则会对经济社会发展会造成较大的负面冲击，且碳税的碳减排政策效力随着时间推移不断衰减。②在合适的税率水平下，江苏省按递增税率征收碳税可按期实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标，且碳税的碳减排政策效力随时间推移不断加强。在政策的经济成本方面，从长期看，江苏省按递增税率征税的政策经济成本高于按固定税率征税；但从中短期看，江苏省按递增税率征税并配以碳税返还，其政策经济成本小于按固定税率征税，能够以更小的经济代价实现 2030 年碳达峰目标。在政策的社会成本方面，如果将碳税以一定比例返还给居民，可缓解碳税政策对居民福利的负面冲击，当返还比例足够高时，碳税政策碳税政策可以实现改善环境绩效和提升社会福利的“双重红利”。可以改善环境绩效和提升社会福利的“双重红利”。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Setting carbon tax policy scientifically is an important means to develop low-carbon economy and achieve the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, this paper uses the input-output table data of Jiangsu Province in 2017 to compile the social accounting matrix, constructs a Dynamic CGE model including 16 departments, and simulates and analyzes the impact of carbon tax policies and different carbon tax return methods on carbon emission reduction and macroeconomic and social development in Jiangsu Province. The study found that: ① When the carbon tax is levied according to the fixed tax rate, if the tax rate is too low, Jiangsu Province is unable to achieve the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization” on schedule. When the tax rate is too high, it will have a great negative impact on the economic and social development of Jiangsu Province, and the effectiveness of the carbon emission reduction policy of the carbon tax will decline over time. ② Under the appropriate tax rate level, Jiangsu Province can achieve the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization” on schedule by levying carbon tax at an increasing tax rate, and the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction policy of carbon tax will continue to strengthen over time. In terms of the economic cost of the policy, in the long run, when the tax is levied at the increasing tax rate, the economic cost of the policy is higher than that of the tax at the fixed tax rate; However, in the medium and short term, the policy economic cost of levying tax at an incremental tax rate with carbon tax return is less than that of levying tax at a fixed tax rate. Levying tax at an incremental tax rate in Jiangsu Province can achieve the carbon peak goal in 2030 at a lower economic cost. In terms of the social cost of the policy, if the carbon tax is returned to residents in a certain proportion, it will alleviate the negative impact of the carbon tax policy on residents’ welfare. When the proportion of carbon tax returned to residents is high enough, the carbon tax policy can improve residents’ welfare, and the effectiveness of this policy will continue to increase before the carbon peak in 2030, at this time, the carbon tax policy has realized the “double dividend” of improving environmental performance and social welfare. |
| 陆春华,李晨光,李虹.基于动态 CGE 模型的碳税政策促进江苏省低碳发展研究[J].科学决策,2022,(06):54~72 |
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