| 摘要: |
| ［目的］在我国实施农业供给侧结构改革的大背景下，分析我国主要农产品玉米、大豆、水稻供需及成本收益现状，以把握农业供给侧结构性改革的成效及存在问题，为推进农业供给侧结构性改革及实现农业供需平衡、保证农民受益具有重要意义。［方法］将影响农业经济增长的因素分为市场需求与市场供给两部分，而市场需求包括国内需求和国外需求，市场供给则只指国内供给。分别采集我国玉米、大豆、水稻这3种典型农产品的国内市场需求、国外市场需求和国内市场供给3部分数据，并将市场需求与市场供给数据进行对比，由此分析我国农业供给侧农产品供需现状及存在的问题，指出我国农业供给侧结构性改革发展方向。［结果］（1）我国农产品仍面临着供需不平衡、农民成本收益率低、农产品价格高导致国际市场竞争力低等问题，农业供给侧结构性改革是国家的重大战略，我国通过降低农作物播种面积来降低产能最终实现农产品供需平衡效果微乎其微； （2）我国的农产品产能是相对过剩，并非绝对过剩； （3）我国农产品市场供给一端的要素没有得到有效调节，使农产品生产成本过高，是导致农产品缺少市场竞争力的主要因素。［结论］积极拓宽农产品国外销售市场来增加农产品需求渠道，调节农产品国内市场供给要素，降低农产品生产成本，提高农产品生产质量，增加我国农产品竞争力，是我国通过农业供给侧结构性改革实现农产品供需平衡的必然之路。 |
| 关键词: 农产品去产能供给侧农业改革农业发展 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F121 |
| 基金项目:农业农村部（原农业部）农技推广专项项目“国家重大农技推广服务试点专项”（2015ZDNJTG） |
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| RESEARCH ON THE TREND OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN CHINA BASED ON SUPPLY SIDE REFORM |
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Huang Zequn
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Henan Financial & Industrial VcationalTchnical College Modern Logistics Department, Hengyang 421002, Hunan,China
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| Abstract: |
| Under the background of the implementation of agricultural supply side structure reform in China, this paper analyzed the current situation of supply and demand of corn, soybean and rice and the cost benefit of China′s main agricultural products, in order to grasp the effectiveness and existing problems of structural reform of agricultural supply side, and promote the supply side structure of agriculture. It is of great significance to reform and realize the balance between agricultural supply and demand and ensure the benefits of farmers. The factors affecting agricultural economic growth were divided into two parts: market demand and market supply. Market demand included domestic demand and foreign demand, while market supply referred only to domestic supply. The domestic market demand, foreign market demand and domestic market supply of three typical agricultural products, such as corn, soybean and rice, were collected separately, and the market demand and market supply data were compared to analyze the supply and demand status of agricultural supply side agricultural products in China. And the existing problems, pointing out the development direction of China′s agricultural supply side structural reform. China′s agricultural products still faced imbalances between supply and demand, low farmers′ cost benefit ratio, and high agricultural product prices, which led to low competitiveness in the international market. The structural reform of agricultural supply side was a major national strategy, and China had reduced crops by cropping. The area to reduce production capacity and ultimately achieve the balance between supply and demand of agricultural products is minimal; China′s agricultural product production capacity was relatively surplus, not absolute surplus; The factors at the supply end of China′s agricultural products market had not been effectively regulated, so that the production cost of agricultural products was too high, which is the main factor leading to the lack of market competitiveness of agricultural products. It was an inevitable way for China to realize the balance of supply and demand of agricultural products through the structural reform of agricultural supply side to actively broaden the foreign market of agricultural products to increase the channels of demand for agricultural products, regulate the supply factors of domestic market of agricultural products, reduce the production cost of agricultural products, improve the quality of agricultural products and increase the competitiveness of agricultural products. |
| Key words: agricultural production capacity supply side agricultural reform agricultural development |
