| 供给侧结构性改革视角下青海工业内部结构优化水平评价——基于熵权TOPSIS模型和灰色系统理论 |
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| 引用本文： | 苟廷佳,王安林.供给侧结构性改革视角下青海工业内部结构优化水平评价——基于熵权TOPSIS模型和灰色系统理论[J].西部经济管理论坛,2020,31(2):11-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苟廷佳 王安林 |
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| 作者单位： | 青海师范大学地理科学学院 青海西宁 810008;青海大学农林科学院 青海西宁 810016 |
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| 基金项目： | 青海省社会科学规划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 定量评估工业内部结构优化水平并预测循环经济发展趋势，是提升工业内部结构优化水平的有效途径。本文以供给侧结构性改革为指导思想，以地方政策为要求，从产业发展水平、产业发展环境、产业结构潜力、产业升级能力出发，构建包含13个二级指标的工业内部结构优化水平评价指标体系。根据2000—2016年青海省面板数据，使用熵权 TOPSIS 模型对青海省工业内部结构优化水平进行定量评价，同时借助灰色系统理论构建GM（1，1）模型，以分析和预测青海省循环经济重点行业的发展趋势。结果表明，青海省工业内部结构优化水平综合指数在2000—2016年期间总体呈上升趋势，年均增长率为13.63%。以 TOPSIS 模型贴进度为研判标准，青海省工业内部结构优化水平经历了从较差—中级—良好的变化过程。依据 GM（1，1）模型预测结果，青海省循环经济发展呈平稳上升趋势，在供给侧结构性改革背景下，对工业内部结构优化和经济的可持续发展起到积极促进作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 供给侧结构性改革 工业内部结构优化 熵权TOPSIS模型 灰色系统理论 青海省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-09-09 |
Evaluation of Qinghai's Industrial Internal Structure Optimization from the Perspective of Supply-side Structural Reform |
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| Authors: | GOU Tingjia Wang Anlin |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Geography Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai 810008 |
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| Abstract: | To quantitatively evaluate the optimization of industrial internal structure and predict the development trend of circular economy is an effective way to improve the optimization of industrial internal structure. This paper takes the structural reform of the supply side as the guiding ideology and local policies as requirements to construct evaluation index system of industrial internal structure optimization that includes 13 secondary indexes with industrial development, industrial development environment, industrial structure potential, and industrial upgrading capability. According to the panel data of Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2016, the study uses Entropy weight TOPSIS model to quantitatively evaluate the optimization of industrial internal structure in Qinghai. It also constructs a GM (1,1) model by Grey System Theory to analyze and predict the circular economy of Qinghai. The overall index of industrial internal structure optimization in Qinghai shows an upward trend from 2000 to 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 13.63%. Taking the progress of TOPSIS Model paste as the research standard, the optimization of industrial internal structure in Qinghai has experienced a change from poor to intermediate, then to positive condition. According to the GM (1,1) model prediction, the development trend of circular economy in Qinghai has increased steadily. The conclusion is that the structural reforms on the supply side has played a positive role in promoting industrial internal structure optimization and sustainable economic development. |
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