A first look at the empirical relation between spot and futures electricity prices in the United States

In this article we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California–Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium for 6‐month futures contracts is estimated to be 0.1328% per day or about 4% per month. Using a GARCH specification, we estimate minimum variance hedge ratios for electricity futures. Finally, we study the dynamic relation between spot and futures prices using an Exponential GARCH model and between the spot and futures returns series using a vector autoregression. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:931–955, 2003     

Market openness and market quality in gold markets

This paper studies the impact of market openness on market quality in gold markets, by investigating the openness event that occurred when the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) launched an international board (SGEI) for foreign investors in China. Investors prefer to trade on the SGE than the SGEI, probably due to the SGE’s higher liquidity. In addition, using the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) gold futures as the benchmark, we show the SGE experiences a significant increase in liquidity without a concomitant increase in volatility. Moreover, the SGE’s contribution to international gold price discovery increases after the openness event.     

Natural gas prices and the gas storage report: Public news and volatility in energy futures markets

This study examines the short‐term volatility of natural gas prices through an examination of the intraday prices of the nearby natural gas futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The influence on volatility of what many regard as a key element of the information set influencing the natural gas market is investigated. Specifically, we examine the impact on natural gas futures price volatility of the Weekly American Gas Storage Survey report compiled and issued by the American Gas Association during the period January 1, 1999 through May 3, 2002 and the subsequent weekly report compiled and issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration after May 6, 2002. We find that the weekly gas storage report announcement was responsible for considerable volatility at the time of its release and that volatility up to 30 minutes following the announcement was also higher than normal. Aside from these results, we document pronounced price volatility in this market both at the beginning of the day and at the end of the day and offer explanations for such behavior. Our results are robust to the manner in which the mean percentage change in the futures price is estimated and to correlation of these changes both within the day and across days. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:283–313, 2004     

The components of bid‐ask spread and their determinants: TAIFEX versus SGX‐DT

This paper compares the intraday components of bid‐ask spread in Taiwan stock index futures traded on Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited (SGX‐DT). Variables that determine the components of spread are also examined. SGX‐DT uses a floor trading system while TAIFEX uses an electronic call system. This study finds that both information asymmetry and order processing cost components exhibit U‐shaped patterns in the two markets, in contrast to previous findings for U.S. equity markets. Moreover, the information asymmetry components are lower in the TAIFEX relative to the SGX‐DT futures, suggesting that the continuous open outcry markets are more vulnerable to information asymmetry than the electronic call markets. The regression results show that volatility and information are the major determinants of the components while number of trades is not the major determinant of the order processing and information asymmetry components for both markets. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:835–860, 2004     

Information Role of U.S. Futures Trading in a Global Financial Market

Using a bivariate, asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, we examine the patterns of information flows for three financial futures contracts that are dual‐listed on U.S. and Asian markets (i.e., Nikkei 225 Index, Eurodollar, and dollar–yen currency futures). The results indicate that the U.S. market plays a leading role in terms of pricing‐information transmission across markets. In terms of volatility spillover across markets, however, foreign markets seem to play a similar role (e.g., Nikkei Index futures) or even a more significant role than the United States (e.g., Eurodollar futures in Singapore and dollar–yen currency futures in Japan). © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1071–1090, 2001     

Cash trading and index futures price volatility

This study examines the effect of cash market liquidity on the volatility of stock index futures. Two facets of cash market liquidity are considered: (1) the level of liquidity trading proxied by the expected New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) trading volume and (2) the noise composition of trading proxied by the average NYSE trading commission cost. Under the framework of spline–GARCH with a liquidity component, both the quarterly average commission cost and the quarterly expected NYSE volume are negatively associated with the ex ante daily volatility of S&P 500 and NYSE composite index futures. Conversely, liquidity and noise trading in the cash market both dampen futures price volatility, ceteris paribus. This negative association between secular cash trading liquidity and daily futures price volatility is amplified during times of market crisis. These results retain statistical significance and materiality after controlling for bid–ask bounce of futures prices and volume of traded futures contracts. This study establishes empirical evidence to affirm the conventional prediction of a liquidity–volatility relationship: the liquidity effect is secular and persistent across markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:465–486, 2011     

Understanding the New Potato Futures Contract and Its Implications for Marketing

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an economic interpretation of the prices for the recently introduced potato futures contract trading on the New York Cotton Exchange, based on a review of economic literature. Potatoes differ from other commodities traded on futures markets, because they are stored from one crop year to the next. Harvest contract prices are expected to be similiar each year when first introduced for trading, but become more variable as specific supply and demand information for that year becomes available. Spreads across crop years will be much less correlated than spreads within a crop year. Inverse carrying charges are not expected within the crop year.     

Extreme volatility,speculative efficiency,and the hedging effectiveness of the oil futures markets

This study investigates the efficiency of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Division light sweet crude oil futures contract market during recent periods of extreme conditional volatility. Crude oil futures contract prices are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and unbiased predictors of future spot prices, including the period prior to the onset of the Iraqi war and until the formation of the new Iraqi government in April 2005. Both futures and spot prices exhibit asymmetric volatility characteristics. Hedging performance is improved when asymmetries are accounted for. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:61–84, 2007     

A Study of Arbitrage Efficiency Between the FTSE‐100 Index Futures and Options Contracts

Despite the importance of the London markets and the significance of the relationship for market makers, little published research is available on arbitrage between the FTSE‐100 Index futures and the FTSE‐100 European index options contracts. This study uses the put–call–futures parity condition to throw light on the relationship between options and futures written against the FTSE Index. The arbitrage methodology adopted in this study avoids many of the problems that have affected prior research on the relationship between options or futures prices and the underlying index. The problems that arise from nonsynchroneity between options and futures prices are reduced by the matching of options and futures prices within narrow time intervals with time‐stamped transaction data. This study allows for realistic trading and market‐impact costs. The feasibility of strategies such as execute‐and‐hold and early unwinding is examined with both ex‐post and ex‐ante simulation tests that take into consideration possible execution time lags for the arbitrage trade. This study reveals that the occurrence of matched put–call–futures trios exhibits a U‐shaped intraday pattern with a concentration at both open and close, although the magnitude of observed mispricings has no discernible intraday pattern. Ex‐post arbitrage profits for traders facing transaction costs are concentrated in at‐the‐money options. As in other major markets, despite important microstructure differences, opportunities are generally rapidly extinguished in less than 3 min. The results suggest that arbitrage opportunities for traders facing transaction costs are small in number and confirm the efficiency of trading on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:31–58, 2002     

Causality in the VIX futures market

This study examines the price‐discovery function and information efficiency of a fast growing volatility futures market: the Chicago Board of Option Exchange VIX futures market. A linear Engle–Granger cointegration test with an error correction mechanism (ECM) shows that during the full sample period, VIX futures prices lead spot VIX index, which implies that the VIX futures market has some price‐discovery function. But a modified Baek and Brock nonlinear Granger test detects bi‐directional causality between VIX and VIX futures prices, suggesting that both spot and futures prices react simultaneously to new information. Quarter‐by‐quarter investigations show that, on average, the estimated parameters are not significantly different from zero, thus providing further evidence supporting information efficiency in the VIX futures market. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Trading activity in stock index futures markets: The evidence of emerging markets

This study investigates the trading activity of the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited (SGX‐DT) Taiwan Stock Index Futures markets by analyzing the intraday patterns of volume and volatility. In addition, the market closure theory, which may explain such patterns, is examined. Overall, the trading pattern appears to be U‐shaped for the TAIFEX futures and U+W‐shaped for the SGX‐DT. For the SGX‐DT futures, volatility follows the same pattern as that of the number of price changes. For the TAIFEX futures, however, after the peak at the close of the spot market, the volatility in the TAIFEX futures drops consistently until the end of the day while volatility in the SGX‐DT still reaches a smaller peak at the close of the futures market. In addition, a visual inspection of the intraday patterns of these two markets shows that the market closure theory can effectively explain the intraday patterns of these two markets. The empirical results support the market closure theory in that liquidity demand from traders rebalancing their portfolios before and after market closures creates larger volume and volatility at both the open and close. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:983–1003, 2002     

Asymmetric information in commodity futures markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This article examines the theoretical and empirical implications of asymmetric information in commodity futures markets. In particular, it formulates and tests a theoretical model that recognizes two distinct categories of traders: hedgers, who participate in both spot and futures markets, and speculators, who participate only in the futures market. Speculators are assumed to possess differential information about the realized values of selected random variables. Multiperiod futures market equilibria are derived under competitive conditions, and the ability of futures markets to forecast changes in equilibrium spot market prices are examined. The key variable is shown to be the randomness and informational asymmetry in the aggregate supply by participating hedgers in the spot market, whose absence turns out to be the major determinant of the revelation of informational asymmetry. Moreover, under the assumption of independence of error forecasts for prices and spot market supplies, it is shown that futures market equilibrium ends up with linear expressions for prices and futures contract volumes. These linear expressions are then used to develop empirically testable models. The main empirical implications in these models revolve around the role of the basis as a predictor of future spot price changes. The paper provides an empirical investigation of these implications, using three commodities traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:803–825, 1998     

Rational expectations and market efficiency in the U.S. live cattle futures market: The role of proprietary information

The role of proprietary information in forecasting and market efficiency in the U.S. live cattle futures market is investigated. Using a unique proprietary data source collected by a private firm, we test whether the initial estimates in the USDA Cattle on Feed Report and the Knight‐Ridder pre‐release forecasts are unbiased and efficient forecasts of final revised USDA Cattle on Feed Report numbers. We then use these results to test whether futures price movements are predictable based on information in the proprietary data. We also test whether the initial estimates from the Cattle on Feed Report have new information that moves prices once the information contained in the proprietary data source has been taken into account. Results suggest that the information contained in the proprietary data source does have statistically significant explanatory power for forecasting final revised Cattle on Feed Report numbers and for predicting short‐term price movements of futures contracts. The results are inconsistent with strong‐form market efficiency in the live cattle futures market. We also find that the initial estimates in the Cattle on Feed Report still have new information that moves prices even after accounting for the unique information in both the Knight‐Ridder pre‐release forecasts and the proprietary data. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:429–451, 2004     

Migration of price discovery in semiregulated derivatives markets

This study investigates the information content of futures option prices when the underlying futures price is regulated and the futures option price is not. The New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) provides the empirical setting for this regulatory mismatch. Many commodity derivatives markets regulate the prices of all derivatives on a single underlying commodity simultaneously. Some exchanges, including the NYBOT, regulate only their futures contracts, leaving the options on these futures contracts unregulated. This study takes a particular interest in the option‐implied futures price when the observed futures price is locked limit. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:209–241, 2006     

Price discovery in the treasury futures market

The paper conducts a regression analysis utilizing both futures and cash market prices and net orderflow to determine where price discovery takes place as well as the forces at play that influence the location. Specifically, given the strong theoretical linkage between the U.S. Treasury cash and futures markets, they compare how orderflow contributes to price discovery and analyze how and when information flows from one market to the other. How a number of environmental variables (trader type, financing rates, and liquidity) impact the information flows between these two markets is also considered. Their findings provide new evidence on the extent to which price discovery happens away from a primary market. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27: 1021–1051, 2007     

中美证券市场信息扩散速度比较研究

本文利用信息传播速度模型讨论证券市场信息的有效性。发现在上海证券交易市场上信息传播速度对上证指数条件波动率的影响具有随时间变化逐渐扩大的趋势,而在纽约证券交易市场上信息传播速度对道琼斯指数条件波动率的影响相对稳定。表明上海证券市场消化新信息的效率明显低于纽约证券市场。实证结果较好地刻画了中美证券市场信息流动的基本特征。     

Intradaily periodicity and volatility spillovers between international stock index futures markets

This paper examines short‐run information transmission between the U.S. and U.K. markets using the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 index futures. Ultrahighfrequency futures data are employed—which have a number of advantages over the low‐frequency spot data commonly used in previous studies—in establishing that volatility spillovers are in fact bidirectional. The generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model (GARCH) is employed to estimate the mean and volatility spillovers of intraday returns. A Fourier flexible function is utilized to filter the intradaily periodic patterns that induce serial correlation in return volatility. It was found that estimates of volatility persistence and speed of information transmission are seriously affected by intradaily periodicity. The bias in parameter estimation is removed by filtering out the intradaily periodic component of the transaction data. Contrary to previous findings, there is evidence of spillovers in volatility between the U.S. and U.K. markets. Results indicate that the volatility of the U.S. market is affected by the most recent volatility surprise in the U.K. market. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:553–585, 2005     

Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets

Given a dominant exchange, how should other exchanges set their trading hours? We examine the introduction of a night session by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, allowing trading concurrently with daytime trading at the Commodity Exchange in the United States. After developing hypotheses, results for gold and silver show: trading activity has increased; liquidity in Shanghai has risen and prices are less volatile at market opening; the price discovery share of Chinese gold futures has fallen but this is not a sign of weakening market quality; and volatility spillovers increase bidirectionally. Longer trading hours have decreased market segmentation and increased information flow.     

The intra‐day price discovery process between the Singapore Exchange and Taiwan Futures Exchange

This paper focuses on the increasing competition between exchanges for listing similar index futures contracts and the impact this has on information dissemination between various markets. Specifically, using both the Hasbrouck and Gonzalo–Granger methodologies for extracting the information content held in each market, a comparison of information efficiencies between the Singapore Exchange and the Taiwan Futures Exchange is examined for Taiwan Index Futures listed in both markets. The results show not only a common stochastic trend between index futures and their underlying indices, but also provide strong evidence to suggest price discovery primarily originates from the Singapore futures market. There are direct implications of this result for both financial exchanges and traders—in particular, that traders realize price determination can arise from both futures markets, and the need for exchanges to maintain a reputation as an information center for these similarly traded financial instruments. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22: 219–240, 2002     

Evidence of arbitrage trading activity: The case of Chinese metal futures contracts

Several unique insights are documented based on a study of selected metal futures contracts traded in the U.S. and China. Based on our unique measures, we present intra market evidence that the U.S. gold and silver futures markets reflect a fully arbitraged market and U.S. copper nearly so. In contrast, the Chinese gold and silver futures markets appear to reflect an un-arbitraged market whereas the Chinese copper market is characterized as somewhat arbitraged. We explore various reasons for this evidence as well as document the differences in gold, silver, and copper futures markets between China and the U.S.