Degrowth,the past,the future,and the human nature

In the last years, different sources point to a same message: industrial civilization has entered an overshoot mode, the natural limits to growth have been already surpassed. This frontier does not wait for us in the future; it already belongs to our past. If population and the economy are truly beyond the limits, then current visions and theories of social change would be deeply perturbed. If the development era is approaching its end, then many sociological theories on current societies will share the same destiny, sustainable development doctrines between them. It is worth to examine theories that explicitly look at the social world this way or that – at least – are not incompatible with it. Differences between these theories depend on sociological, psychological and anthropological questions; or, in other words, they depend on the human nature. Exploring the relationship between degrowth and the human nature gives rise to debates about selective pressures under conditions of scarcity (human evolution), historical and anthropological evidence, philosophy, and sociology (institutional resilience, utopies as whole society experiments…). As its conclusion, the argument accepts that an evolutionary perspective supports that there are some potentials for conscious social change even in a way-down era, but it does not justify the belief in a particular only line of history. This conclusion does not satisfy the desire of knowing the future; nevertheless it may be the only one possible. The future is not written. Neither in history nor in evolution; not even in the mixture of history and evolution that conforms us as inhabitants of the Earth.     

Dating,discounting, and the robustness of the Lucas-Sargent proposition

From recent work by Thomas Sargent and others, it has become well known that, if expectations are formed rationally, monetary stabilization policy will be entirely ineffective in an economy in which the aggregate supply function relates output (relative to capacity) to the difference between the current price level and the value expected one period earlier. This paper considers whether this neutrality proposition holds when the expectation of some future price is compared with the current actual price in the supply equation. It is shown that the proposition remains valid if the future price is appropriately discounted.     

Bookbuidling, Auctions, and the Future of the IPO Process

Auction theorists predict that bookbuilding, long the standard process for selling equity IPOs in the U.S., is about to give way to an Internet‐based IPO auction process that is both more efficient and more fair. The promise of auctions is that, by using an electronic platform that gives all investors the opportunity to bid on IPOs, the underpricing of IPOs and commissions to underwriters will be reduced, leading to an increase in net proceeds to issuers. Largely missing from such arguments, however, is an appreciation of why bookbuilding has dominated U.S. practice (and continues to supplant auctions in IPOs in most countries outside the U.S) and the role of undepricing in the IPO process. Rather than canvassing all investors, bookbuilding involves eliciting expressions of interest from institutional investors, and then allocating shares mainly according to the strength of their professed interest. In contrast to auctions, which allocate shares according to a set of explicit rules, bookbuilding involves a set of implicit “rules” that provide considerable room for judgment by the underwriter. This does not mean that the rules are arbitrary or not well understood by participants, particularly after thousands of IPOs conducted over the better part of two centuries. But to manage the exchange of information between issuers and investors, and the potential conflicts of interest in representing both groups, such rules must be administered by an intermediary with a considerable stake in protecting its reputation for fair dealing. Investment banks that deal with both issuers and the investment community on a regular basis are well positioned to perform this function. The underpricing of IPOs is best viewed not as a transfer of wealth from issuers to favored investors but rather as compensation to the large influential investors that play a major role in the price discovery process. By opening the process to all comers, auctions will discourage these large investors from bidding aggressively because less sophisticated investors will be able to “free ride” on their research and due diligence. To the extent this happens, auctions may suc ceed in reducing underpricing (in fact, they may even lead to over pricing), but they will also reduce the net proceeds for issuers. Nevertheless, recent advances in communications technology and auction theory will undoubtedly reshape current securities underwriting practices. In particular, Internet auctions are likely to replace bookbuilding in debt IPOs and less risky equity issues (say, IPOs of LBOs). But the argument that Bookbuilding will be completely cast aside in favor of largely untested alternatives fails to appreciate a successful institutional response to major market imperfections, some of which can never be wholly eliminated. Especially in the case of risky (first‐time) equity IPOs, there will continue to be an important role for managing the information exchange between issuers and investors that is critical to the IPO process.     

Liquidity,the Value of the Firm,and Corporate Finance

The theory of corporate finance has been based on the idea that a company's market value is determined mainly by just two variables: the company's expected after‐tax operating cash flows or earnings, and the risk associated with producing them. The authors argue that there is another important factor affecting a company's value: the liquidity of its own securities, debt as well as equity. The paper supports this argument by reviewing the large and growing body of evidence showing that differences—and changes—in liquidity can have major effects on the pricing of corporate stocks and bonds or, equivalently, on investors' required returns for holding them. The authors also suggest that the liquidity of a company's securities can be managed by corporate policies and actions. For those companies whose value is likely to be increased by having more liquid securities—which is by no means true of all companies (mature firms that don't need outside capital may well benefit from having more concentrated ownership and hence less liquidity)—management should consider actions such as reducing leverage and substituting dividends for stock repurchases as well as measures designed to increase the effectiveness of their disclosure and investor relations program and the size of their investor base.     

中国上海自贸区建设的进展问题及政策建议

建立中国上海自由贸易实验区是新一届政府应对国际经济环境变化的重大举措,也是中国经济进一步深化改革的必经之路。本文从贸易、投资和金融三个领域深入分析了上海自贸区建设的基本框架和最新进展,并从宏观调控、贸易投资以及相关金融改革三个方面研究了上海自贸区建设存在的主要问题和面临的挑战。最后,本文就如何进一步完善上海贸区建设提出了相关政策建议。     

Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future

This article focuses on how cultures are embedded in diverse ways of knowing and how individuals teach (formal, action research, spiritual) and learn the world (action, science, technique or gnosis) differently. We present case-studies or stories of teaching and learning futures and futures generations. These stories tell the fundamental difficulties we face in teaching, communicating and learning across civilization, profession, worldview and pedagogical style. We offer a futures method, causal layered analysis, as one way to enter different knowing spaces. The educational challenge ahead of us is to pass on the rich diversity of culture and ways of knowing to future generations.     

信贷市场、货币市场与资本市场资金流动性分析

信贷市场、货币市场与资本市场是现代金融市场体系不可分割、互相联系的组成部分.但在相当长时期内,由于体制原因,我国主要以信贷市场为主,并没有真正的货币市场与资本市场.从90年代建立股票市场以来,开始逐渐注重资本市场的发展,主要为国有企业筹集长期资金,却又忽略了货币市场的发展,致使三个市场发展极不平衡.     

控制权转移前业绩、收购方性质与控制权转移绩效

本文研究控制权转移前业绩、收购方性质对控制权转移绩效的影响。以1994—2007年中国A股市场发生控制权转移的公司为样本,本文发现:从长期绩效来看,亏损公司控制权转移后,业绩明显上升;盈利公司被转让给无经验的民营收购方后,业绩明显下降,转让给国有收购方和有经验的民营收购方后,业绩没有明显变化。从短期市场反应来看,转让给国有收购方和有经验的民营收购方的市场反应明显优于转让给无经验的民营收购方。     

Forward Markets,Stock Markets,and the Theory of the Firm

This paper models a competitive financial market economy in which there are forward markets as well as stock and bond markets. Although there are separation theorems in the stock and forward markets literatures, this analysis shows that neither separation theorem survives in this integrated financial market economy. Next, the analysis shows that the separation results hold and are equivalent if the manager has an appropriate compensation package. Then the model is modified to allow for depreciation charges and tax credits. A positive theory of hedging is developed that shows that the corporation can preserve deductions and credits by hedging and so increase corporate value.     

Deregulation,Correspondent Banking,and the Role of the Federal Reserve

Intrastate branching deregulation allowed correspondent banks to enter downstream retail deposit markets. Integrated correspondent banks may engage in vertical foreclosure, raising prices to downstream rivals or extracting valuable competitive information. The Federal Reserve would then tend to gain market share from private correspondent banks. Deregulation of restrictions on the formation of multibank holding companies, in contrast, allowed other correspondents to enter, increasing competition. We test these hypotheses using a panel data set of respondent account balances. We find that the Federal Reserve became a more important supplier of correspondent services following branching deregulation and that market power in the correspondent market declined following multibank holding company deregulation. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D43, G21, G28, L11.     

Financial Globalization,Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias

We merge portfolio theories of home bias with corporate finance theories of insider ownership to create the optimal corporate ownership theory of the home bias. The theory has two components: (1) foreign portfolio investors exhibit a large home bias against countries with poor governance because their investment is limited by high optimal ownership by insiders (the “direct effect” of poor governance) and domestic monitoring shareholders (the “indirect effect”) in response to the governance and (2) foreign direct investors from “good governance” countries have a comparative advantage as insider monitors in “poor governance” countries, so that the relative importance of foreign direct investment is negatively related to the quality of governance. Using both country‐level data on U.S. investors' foreign investment allocations and Korean firm‐level data, we find empirical evidence supporting our optimal corporate ownership theory of the home bias.     

The Purpose of the Firm,Valuation, and the Management of Intangibles

This article provides a different way of thinking about, and responding to, four important issues that confront most public companies. First, in articulating the overarching corporate purpose, the author suggests a middle ground between shareholder value maximization and stakeholder theory that aims to achieve the end result of value maximization while taking a “holistic” view that meets most of the demands of stakeholder advocates. As described by the author, there are four critical steps for management and boards in creating such companies: (1) communicating a vision of the company and its purpose to employees as well as investors (and other key outsiders); (2) organizing to survive and prosper through efficiency and innovation; (3) working continuously to develop win‐win relationships with stakeholders and other companies; and (4) taking care of the environment and future generations. Second, in thinking about the corporate purpose and how to evaluate success in achieving it, managements and boards need a valuation model that provides a clear and insightful connection between long‐term corporate performance and market valuation, and how both might be expected to change as the firm matures. A strong case is presented for the life‐cycle valuation model, widely used by money management organizations, in which a company's projected cash flows reflect an expected “fade” in both economic returns on capital and reinvestment rates. The potential uses of this model are illustrated using lifecycle corporate performance data for 3M during the past 50 years. Third, in an effort to capture the value of innovation and investment in intangible assets, the author presents an alternative to the accounting approach of capitalizing and amortizing such assets that attempts to capture their expected future benefits by using more favorable forecasts of long‐term fade rates. Fourth, the author shows how incorporating Life‐cycle Reviews for each of a company's business units as part of its Integrated Reporting could improve management's resource allocation decisions, help build a shareholder base of long‐term investors, and provide management with the support and confidence to resist Wall Street's excessive emphasis on quarterly earnings.     

Income Inequality,Growth, and the Enlargement of the European Union

This study investigates the relation between income inequality and economic growth, namely, the Kuznets curve, in the context of EU enlargement. The results have implications regarding how the latest enlargement of the European Union affects the relationship between income inequality and growth, for both EU member countries and the European Union as a region. Estimation results show that there is no evidence of a significant original or reverse Kuznets curve for any of the groups of countries in this study. Therefore, empirical results suggest that the latest enlargement, and a possible future accession of the candidates, may not change the fact that a Kuznets curve does not exist for the European Union.     

Bookbuilding,the option to withdraw,and the timing of IPOs

The ability to withdraw IPOs when demand is weak increases expected proceeds and provides issuers with option value. To enhance this value, the SEC adopted in 2001 the ‘public-to-private’ safe harbor Rule 155 and simplified Rule 477 for withdrawing offerings. The option value can exceed the underpricing associated with soliciting investor demand. Hence, issuers might prefer bookbuilding despite the associated underpricing even if they could sell via fixed price at full expected value. The option value increases faster than underpricing with ex ante uncertainty, generating predictions regarding the use of bookbuilding and the timing of IPOs, and leading to a distinct theory of hot IPO markets.     

Liquidity,the Value of the Firm,and Corporate Finance*

The theory of corporate finance has been based on the idea that a company's market value is determined mainly by just two variables: the company's expected aftertax operating cash flows or earnings, and the risk associated with producing them. The authors argue that there is another important factor affecting a company's value: the liquidity of its own securities, debt as well as equity. The paper supports this argument by reviewing the large and growing body of evidence showing that differences—and, perhaps even more important, sudden changes—in liquidity can have major effects on the pricing of corporate stocks and bonds or, equivalently, on investors' required returns for holding them. The authors also suggest that the liquidity of a company's securities can be managed by corporate policies and actions. For those companies whose value is likely to be increased by having more liquid securities—which is by no means true of all companies (for example, mature firms with little need for outside equity are likely to benefit from having more concentrated ownership and hence less liquidity)—management should consider actions such as reducing leverage and substituting dividends for stock repurchases as well as measures designed to increase the effectiveness of their disclosure and investor relations program and the size of their retail investor base.     

Volume, volatility, and the dispersion of beliefs

I examine a two-period noisy rational expectations model ofa futures market and show that the dispersion of expectationsabout a weighted average of future prices measures both theadditional volatility and the additional expected volume oftrade associated with noisy information. The role played bydispersion helps clarify several stylized facts concerning volumeand price behavior. Specifically, dispersion can be a factorcontributing to the positive correlation between volume andabsolute price changes, and the positive correlation betweenconsecutive absolute price changes.     

Taxation, Uncertainty, and the Cost of Equity

Traditionally the pre-tax cost of capital is a function of the interest rate and the tax system. However, uncertainty implies that the market's required return is no single interest rate, but depends on risk. Different tax systems split risk differently between firm and government. Thus the required expected return after corporate taxes depends on the tax system. Expressions for this are derived, based on a CAPM-type model. The weighted average cost of capital is decreasing in the tax rate, even for fully equity financed projects. This effect can be substantial, but is neglected in much of the literature.     

Religion,Corruption, and the Rule of Law

In a 207‐country sample, we find that rule of law and corruption are both associated with a country's religious heritage, thereby partially explaining the correlation between religion and economic growth found in previous research. We also show that our results change when we control for some variables lacking data for all countries in the sample but that these differences are attributable to changes in sample composition rather than the effects of the control variables. Our research suggests that researchers doing cross‐country analysis should distinguish between the effects of adding a control variable and the resulting sample composition effects.     

Disclosure,Liquidity, and the Cost of Capital

This paper shows that revealing public information to reduce information asymmetry can reduce a firm's cost of capital by attracting increased demand from large investors due to increased liquidity of its securities. Large firms will disclose more information since they benefit most. Disclosure also reduces the risk bearing capacity available through market makers. If initial information asymmetry is large, reducing it will increase the current price of the security. However, the maximum current price occurs with some asymmetry of information: further reduction of information asymmetry accentuates the undesirable effects of exit from market making.