Trade,Migration, and Inequality in a World without Factor Price Equalization

The behavior of trading economies in the absence of factor price equalization is not well understood, although empirical evidence against factor price equalization is overwhelming. We map regions of diversification and specialization for competitive world economies with different factor endowment partitions. Goods and factor price responses as economies move within and across different regions of specialization are explored using a series of novel diagrams. The usefulness of endogenizing patterns of specialization is illustrated by considering the impact on inequality of migration flows (such as US–Mexico), the substitutability of trade and migration, and the impact of the entry of a large unskilled labor‐intensive economy (such as China) on factor prices and factor flows.     

General equilibrium with trade balance and real interest rate parity

This paper demonstrates, in the context of a two-sector OLG neoclassical growth model, conditions under which international trade in consumption goods alone may be sufficient for the equalization of real returns to physical capital across countries; that is, under which commodity arbitrage is sufficient for real interest rate parity (RIRP). This role for repeated commodity arbitrage is established via a dynamic extension of the factor price equalization (FPE) theorem which is valid at all dates comprising the equilibrium path as well as its steady state. The results are at odds with the conventional view regarding RIRP which arises from open one-sector growth models, in which case steady state trade balance and RIRP are irreconcilable, and are also a contradiction to frequent assertions of lon-run specialization in two-sector frameworks. An equilibrium path for an integrated world economy yields an endogenous, time-variant cone of diversification which implies sufficient conditions for the dynamic paths of a cross-section of economies to exhibit FPE, and hence RIRP with trade balance, at all points in time. These conditions require that the savings rates and initial capital-labor ratios of individual countries do not deviate too significantly from world averages, and that both sectors absorb capital easily. The first of these requirements is sufficient to establish steady state FPE and RIRP in the general specification. The first two requirements are sufficient for the entire equilibrium path to be characterized by FPE and RIRP in a log-linear example. Received: September 22, 1998; revised version: February 10, 2000     

Regional Heterogeneity and China's Trade: Sufficient Lumpiness or Not?

This paper explores whether there is sufficient lumpiness or heterogeneity in the relative endowments (capital, labor, and skills) of the regions of China to affect China's specialization and trade patterns. It does so using both the lens condition to identify the violation of factor price equalization across regions, and direct evidence on regional trade and specialization. The results are sensitive to the level of regional aggregation. The paper concludes, however, that China was sufficiently lumpy as recently as 2004 to affect its pattern of international trade.     

Trade,growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model

In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model—a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher–Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model—with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.     

INTERNATIONAL AND INTRA‐NATIONAL TRADE: A CONTINUUM APPROACH*

We build up a Ricardian trade model with multiple regions within a nation and examine how international trade determines interregional patterns of production and specialization. We show that the degree of interregional concentration of economic activities moves in different directions in two trading nations. The role of “absolute advantage” becomes crucial in dictating the course of income disparity across regions. We discuss cases with varying degrees of labour mobility and reconfirm the result on post‐trade interregional concentration and dispersion. Later we explore the impact of “scale factor” in this model and show how principle of comparative advantage and economies of scale interact to determine the pattern of specialization and volume of trade.     

The Transmission of Sustained Growth through the Terms of Trade in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper develops a two‐country model of endogenous growth and international trade in intermediate goods. In autarky just one of the economies enjoys sustained growth. The trade situation may be characterized by complete specialization of both countries, or by incomplete specialization of the growing economy. In either case, trade transmits perpetual growth to the stagnant economy because of the permanent improvements in its terms of trade. The existence of a non‐reproducible factor in the growing economy is crucial to ensure propagation of growth. Moreover, under incomplete specialization countries converge in per capita income. This result relies on two assumptions. First, there must be a large enough share of world income to pay for the input in which the stagnant economy has comparative advantage. Second, all technologies producing intermediate goods should be equally intensive in the non‐reproducible factor.     

SPECIALIZATION AND TRADE: A GAME THEORETICAL APPROACH

Abstract.  In this paper we consider the problem of specialization and trade for large economies with a continuum of ex ante identical individuals and with a finite number of goods. Different from the classical treatment, we adopt a game theoretical approach. Therefore in our models the prices of traded goods are endogenously formulated according to the bidding strategies of the producer-consumers. Furthermore, we assume that in the beginning individuals randomly choose their professions. As a result, with a short-run Nash equilibrium different types of professionals may have different utility levels; while through a dynamic process, a long-run Nash equilibrium with utility equalization is reached. Besides, we also attempt to provide a new algorithm for the computation of general equilibrium models in the Yang-Ng framework.     

Conditions for Factor Price Equalization in the Integrated World Economy Model

The lens condition proposed by Deardorff in 1994 has been argued not to be sufficient for factor price equalization in general. This paper shows that the lens condition is necessary and sufficient both in the two‐factor case and in the three‐good case. The results imply that two is the largest number of factors for the lens condition to guarantee factor price equalization when the number of goods and that of countries are arbitrary. A sufficient condition for factor price equalization is also given in the case where the number of goods, that of countries, and that of factors are all arbitrary.     

Environmental Degradation As an Incentive For Trade*

A modified Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model is used in which industries are allocated by historical accident to geographical regions and agents care about their environment. Incentives for international trade arise when economies with identical factor endowments and geophysical characteristics differ in the allocation of industries to regions, and economies will tend to export goods produced in regions with higher environmental assimilative capacity.     

新贸易理论、比较利益理论及其经验研究的新成果:文献综述

此文择要评述否定贸易理论四大命题(比较利益说、要素价格均等说、斯托尔珀-萨缪尔森定理、罗宾辛斯基定理)的理论研究和经验证据,以及最新的内生比较优势理论和区别分工网络效应和规模经济的新贸易理论.大量的理论研究成果证明,上述四大命题不可能是一般规律,它们只在非常不现实的假定条件、特别的模型和特定参数值范围内成立,而相关的经验证据也推翻了这四大命题.但是,交易效率改进会使更多的分工正网络效应被利用的理论,却是有着相当广泛适用性的规律.     

Can Rich Countries Become Pollution Havens?*

This paper bridges the gap between two‐country Ricardian trade models where differences in environmental policies create pollution havens in a poorer region with weaker pollution regulations, and 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin models that predict under certain conditions that pollution havens may occur in a richer region with tighter regulations. By relaxing the Heckscher–Ohlin assumptions of factor price equalization and no specialization, we show how creation of pollution havens in either region is possible, due to the interplay of policy and factor‐endowment motives. We also analyze the conditions for creating pollution havens in the cases of exogenous and endogenous environmental policy.     

The Lens Condition with Two Factors

The authors give a simple, constructive proof that the lens condition implies the factor price equalization condition when there are only two factors. Taking stock of the conditions under which the lens condition is equivalent to the factor price equalization condition, there are the conditions of two factors or two goods or two countries, or the condition that the rank of the factor‐use matrix is equal to the number of goods. It is shown that, in an essential sense, there are no other such conditions.     

Offshoring and Trade Balance in Developed and Emerging Economies

This paper analyzes the effects of off‐shore outsourcing for international trade, especially for the emerging and poor economies, in a two‐sector specific factor model, with a nontraded good being one of the sectors. The phenomenon of offshoring is modeled by incorporating the reduced use of domestic labor in the production function. This is regarded as a characteristic feature of offshoring in the literature. We find that increased offshoring leads to an increase in the relative price of the nontraded good. Given that this relative price can be interpreted as the real exchange rate, increased offshoring leads to exchange rate appreciation. This suggests that offshoring actually makes the goods and services from the emerging economies more competitive in the world market, and thus can be a contributory factor in the positive trade balance experienced by many emerging economies since early 2000s.     

Preferences,Country Bias,and International Trade

The paper analyzes international trade in a Ricardian world where consumer preferences exhibit country bias. In particular, consumers differentiate between identical physical goods by country of manufacture. In contrast to the classical Ricardian model, the pattern of international specialization in production depends on the preference structure. Possible equilibrium configurations include ones where both countries specialize incompletely and trade in both commodities, as well as situations where the pattern of specialization and trade is the reverse of that in the classical Ricardian world. Both interindustry and intraindustry trade can occur simultaneously, though there are no market imperfections or scale economies.     

The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited

This paper explores the relation between countries’ pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries’ trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization.     

Factor Price Equalization under Imperfect Competition

The paper describes a class of imperfectly competitive world economies for which factor price equalization is inevitable. Specifically, it is shown that factor price equalization must prevail if the trading economies differ at most in scale, if they share a constant-returns no-joint-products technology, and if each oligopolistic industry produces a commodity which, directly or indirectly, is internationally tradable.     

The Choice of Structural Model in Trade–Wages Decompositions

This paper uses a calibrated general equilibrium model to decompose observed wage changes from trade and technology shocks into portions attributable to each source. It highlights some difficulties with the numerical performance of widely used theoretical trade structures. For small economies, the Heckscher–Ohlin model reveals specialization problems unless the price changes accompanying trade shocks are small. It can also yield strikingly different decompositions of the same wage change. A differentiated-goods model removes specialization problems and accommodates large price changes, but introduces demand-side responses greatly reducing the effect of trade on wages, and performs implausibly with sector-biased technical change.     

External economies as a mechanism of agglomeration in EU manufacturing

Productive externalities are significant determinants of agglomeration, not deeply studied at the industry and international level. We analyse the impact on productivity growth of technological externalities, both inter- and intraindustry, national or international, at the industry level for the EU countries and the period 1995–2002. The results confirm the advisability of considering international externalities when countries are taken as regions, whose omission underestimates national spillovers. Together with national endowments and a central geographical position, the growth of productivity is encouraged by national and international specialization as a general result; moreover, it is fuelled by stronger interindustry spillovers and productive diversification, a result more evident for high technology industries, while lower technology industries are more sensitive to the omission of international externalities. Economic integration seems to be relevant, because supranational regions with less friction for goods and factor movements are more likely to take advantage of external economies as a mechanism of productivity growth and agglomeration.     

A NEW THEORY OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY AND EMERGENCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE FROM DOMESTIC TRADE

Abstract. In the paper a fixed learning cost is introduced into a framework with consumer-producers and transaction costs. The fixed learning cost yields a rate of return on the investment in individual specific learning and training which is increasing in its rate of utilization. Division of labor can avoid duplicated learning costs and generate economies of specialized learning. The tradeoff between economies of specialization and transaction costs can be used to explain concurrent increases in the extent of the market, aggregate demand, productivity, trade dependence, the degree of market integration, the degree of production concentration, diversity of economic structure, variety of different professions, each person's level of specialization, and the extent of endogenous comparative advantage and the emergence of international trade from domestic trade. This model explains demand and supply as two sides of the level of division of labor which is determined by a transaction cost coefficient. Hence, the demand law may not hold even for normal goods owing to complicated interdependencies between the level of specialization and demand and between the level of specialization and prices of traded goods. The extended version of this model with the CES function is used to endogenize variety of consumption in addition to the endogenization of individuals'level of specialization.     

Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius

In this article, we combine the export led and import led growth hypotheses in a growth model in which the importation of foreign capital goods and the demand elasticities of own export products explain the growth opportunities and the technical progress of developing countries. This model, based on imported capital goods, uses Mauritius’ data on capital investment, employment, export partners’ growth and terms of trade to estimate price and income elasticities of export demand, total factor productivity growth and economies of scale. These elasticities are then used to assess how the growth in export partners’ income is converted into domestic growth. The implications of the presence of low or high export demand elasticities are discussed by relating them to various strands of trade and growth literature. Based on the results of this estimation, we also calculate steady state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as the dynamic steady state gains from trade for this latecomer export economy. The implications of steady state results are also discussed in the light of the Mauritian employment and growth perspectives.