Poverty analysis in the lowlands of Papua New Guinea underscores climate vulnerability and need for income flexibility*

A severe El Niño event in 2015/16 decimated an important share of Papua New Guinea's (PNG) local crop production, leaving 10 per cent of the population with significant food shortages. Lack of recent socio‐economic data and analysis of the country's rural population impeded efforts to plan and mitigate the ensuing food crisis. This paper presents the most recent poverty analysis in Papua New Guinea in nearly a decade, and a renewed effort to inform rural production, consumption and livelihood patterns in some of the country's most remote, lowland areas. We designed a rural household survey that collected detailed consumption and expenditure data to explore poverty prevalence and correlates of per capita household expenditure. Results suggest that approximately half of the sampled individuals live in households with total per capita expenditures below the poverty line. Climate shocks have significant and possibly long‐term consequences for household welfare. Households that experienced a drought in the last 5 years are associated with significantly lower per capita expenditures. Labour diversification, via migration, is associated with greater welfare. Households with at least one migrant member are associated with 13 per cent greater per capita expenditure.     

The impact of integrated livestock disease management for food security in Togo

In sub-Saharan Africa, livestock is one of the key channels through which most households meet their food security needs. However, diseases such as the African Animal Trypanosomosis (AAT) constrain productivity. Using data from 445 randomly sampled small-scale cattle farmers, this paper investigates the role of integrated livestock disease control on household food security. Using a novel approach to link different food security measures to cattle productivity, the paper identifies the channels of impact at the household level. Methodologically, the paper estimated the propensity score matching algorithm to net out the effect of adoption. The results show that households who adopt RDU have record livestock productivity and higher consumption per capita expenditures. They tend to be more food secure, experience lower seasonal food supply fluctuations and experience a lower probability of falling below the food poverty line.     

Economies of Scale and the Demand for Food in Switzerland: Parametric and Non‐Parametric Analysis

This paper examines the role of household public goods arising from co‐residence and economies of scale in the allocation of household expenditure. Using both parametric and non‐parametric methods, the paper tests the theoretical prediction that in the presence of shared public goods, larger households should have higher per capita consumption of private goods like food, provided that they do not substitute too much towards the effectively cheaper public good. The results indicate that, at constant per capita total expenditure, the per capita demand for food declines with household size. No evidence is found in favour of the hypothesis that the endogeneity of male and female hours of work in the labour force could be responsible for this anomaly. However, an examination of the role of direct economies of scale in explaining this negative relationship yielded a negative relationship between household size and quality adjusted unit values, suggesting that the effects of direct economies of scale dominate those generated by public goods.     

Quantifying the structure of food demand in China: An econometric approach

This article examines food demand structure and its dynamics for 11 commodities in urban China. The analysis is based on household‐level expenditure survey data for two cross‐sectional surveys of Chinese households pertaining to food expenditure patterns during 1995 and 2003. Pre‐committed components of commodity demands, that are insensitive to economic variables, are explored. We use the generalized quadratic almost ideal demand system (GQAIDS) for its empirical superiority to the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS), and estimate the associated parameters via full information maximum likelihood procedure (FIML) accounting for endogeneity of total expenditures on food for home consumption (FAH). We also use quality‐adjusted commodity unit values to control for quality differences resulting from commodity aggregation and food choice. Furthermore, we derive GQAIDS elasticity formulas, and estimate income elasticities without restrictions. The results partially support the hypothesis that an average Chinese household has incorporated elements of Western diet (fine grains) into traditional Chinese food diet over time. Moreover, the outcome of a simple test developed here points to possible preference changes for a majority of food staples under study.     

An assessment of the current structure of food demand in urban China

We evaluate the current structure of food demand in urban China by using household expenditure survey data from five provinces. Two complementary analyses are undertaken. First, an aggregate analysis based on a fractional logit model is used to examine how households allocate food expenditures across the food‐at‐home (FAH) and food‐away‐from‐home (FAFH) categories. This is followed by a disaggregated analysis of how households allocated their FAH expenditures across 12 commodity categories. A Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) is used. We find evidence of significant food purchase substitution and complementarity.     

基于风险分析的缙云县耕地需求量预测研究

研究目的：从粮食安全角度,结合风险分析理念,进行耕地需求量预测,为制定政策提供依据。研究方法：运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,以县域为例,分析人均粮食消费量、出生率、死亡率、粮食耕地单产、粮经比、复种指数、粮食自给率等因素的可能概率分布,对耕地需求量进行仿真预测。研究结果：得到具有一定可信度的耕地需求量风险区间值,其平均值与常规预测方法的结果接近,但比常规预测得到更多的信息。研究结论：通过风险分析得到的耕地需求量风险区间值比单一特定的值更具有政策意义,分析耕地需求量风险区间值,可协助分析相关政策措施的有效性,有利于土地利用规划的弹性管理。     

Household Food Consumption in a Developing Economy:

The primary objective of this paper is to describe household rice consumption patterns in Nigeria with evidence from Imo State, determine the nature, magnitude and direction of income, price and cross price elasticities of demand, and examine the factors influencing household rice consumption. A budget survey of 50 randomly selected rural and urban households in Imo State, Nigeria, interviewed. The survey was repeated for 14 months between November 1984 and January 1986, providing the data used for analysis. There were significant differences between urban and rural household per capita daily rice consumption. Income (expenditure) elasticity of demand was greater than unity, and decreased, as expected, from low to high income groups. Household income was the most important determinant of food consumption. The implications of these findings for food and international trade policy are discussed.     

Measurement Error in Recall Surveys and the Relationship between Household Size and Food Demand

Variation in household survey design and implementation is used to obtain evidence of nonrandom measurement error in recall surveys of household expenditure. These surveys, which are used especially in developing countries, appear to have measurement errors in food expenditures and in food budget shares that are correlated with household size. These correlated errors may be part of the explanation for a puzzling pattern of falling food demand with rising household size in poorer countries.     

The demand for selected nutrients by Greek households: an empirical analysis with quantile regressions

The article uses information from the 1993–1994 Household Consumption Survey and the semiparametric quantile regression approach to analyze the demand for three macronutrients (carbohydrates, proteins, and fats) and three micronutrients (minerals, vitamins, and cholesterol) in Greece. According to the empirical results the age of the household head, the degree of urbanization, the percentage of food expenditure devoted to food away‐from‐home, and the per capita consumption expenditure affect the intakes of nutrients across all the five quantiles considered. The impact, however, of the household head's gender and the impact of his (her) educational achievement are located only at the lower and the higher quantiles, respectively. The expenditure elasticities are substantially lower than unity, suggesting inelastic responses of nutrient intakes to per capita consumption expenditure.     

陕西农村居住地生态环境影响因素分析

[目的]随着农村城镇化进程的加快,由此引发的农村居住地生态环境恶化已成为制约农业和农村经济可持续发展的瓶颈,加强农村居住地生态环境保护和治理,是目前亟待解决的重要问题。研究分析农村居住地生态环境影响因素,为有效改善居住地生态环境提供重要理论依据。[方法]以陕西省为主要研究区域,采用层次分析法,构建矩阵模型,研究影响陕西省农村居住地生态环境的农民因素、生产活动和政府因素3个层次,包括周边乡镇企业废物排放、农用投入品的使用、畜禽养殖业废物排放、人均消费支出、农村人均家庭纯收入、农村家庭恩格尔系数、环保意识、政府监管力度、环境保护财政支出,相关政策法规等10个因素所占权重,得到不同因素的重要性排序。[结果]乡镇企业废物排放、农用投入品的使用、农村人均家庭纯收入和农村人均消费支出是影响农村居住地生态环境的主要因素,且重要性排序为乡镇企业废物排放农用投入品的使用农村人均家庭纯收入农村人均消费支出。[结论]加强乡镇企业废物排放管理和农用投入品的生产和使用审查,降低不必要的消费支出,同时为农民提供更多的就业机会,提高人均家庭村收入,是目前改善农村居住地生态环境的有效措施,为农民提供一个安全舒适的居住场所,这也将有利于农村经济的可持续发展。     

基于农户意愿的农村宅基地集约面积估算——以渝东北11区县为例

研究目的：选取地处三峡库区腹地且生态环境脆弱的渝东北11区县为研究区域,从农户意愿角度揭示满足宅基地需求最大化时的人均宅基地集约用地面积,为农村宅基地集约利用乃至农村建设用地集约利用提供建议。研究方法：农户调查法,消费效用函数计算,K值聚类分析法。研究结果：农户宅基地用地需求与农户建房支出水平、农村房屋建造单价、农户消费偏好、房屋需求强度等存在依赖关系;在满足宅基地需求最大化时的最佳户均宅基地面积为122.14 — 140.06 m2/户,最佳人均农村宅基地面积为31.32 — 35.91 m2/人。研究结论：渝东北地区农村宅基地的集约利用潜力巨大,农村建设用地集约利用潜力挖掘具有极强可行性,应扎实推进宅基地内部挖潜,着力探索农村宅基地集约利用新机制。     

Understanding Differences in Self-Reported Expenditures between Household Scanner Data and Diary Survey Data: A Comparison of Homescan and Consumer Expenditure Survey

Household scanner data contain rich information on household demographics and transactions in actual markets over a long time period. To more fully understand the characteristics of these data, we conducted an analysis to determine whether household expenditures in the Nielsen Homescan panel are similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistic's Consumer Expenditure Diary Survey. We found that many differences in reported expenditures across the two datasets can be explained by such household demographics as female head, income, and household size, for example. The largest degrees of discrepancies across datasets occur for food categories containing more random-weight foods without universal product codes.     

The Demand for Food Quality in Rural China

Many studies of food demand do not use actual prices but unit values, obtained by dividing expenditures by the quantity consumed. This can bias empirical analyses because unit values are not exogenous market prices; they reflect household food quality choices within each food category. This article develops a framework for assessing the resulting bias in income and price elasticities of demand and applies the framework to data for rural China. Empirical results indicate that households in rural China tend to consume higher-quality food as income increases, with a greater sensitivity to income for basic foods than for luxury foods.     

长沙市城市居民生活消费的生态足迹分析

生态足迹是一种定量测量人类对自然利用程度的新方法。以长沙市为例,估算出2003年城市居民的食物、衣着、生活用品、生活用能等主要生活消费的生念足迹为1．0612hm^2。居民生活消费的总生态足迹面积为21619．831km^2,其市区面积为591．33km^2,生活消费的总生态足迹面积是其城市实际面积的36．6倍.最后就建立可持续的居民生活消费方式、促进长沙生态城市建设提出了相应的改善意见．     

基于空间马尔科夫链的农村经济发展水平分析——以四川省为例

以2000~2013年四川省各地市(州)农民人均纯收入和人均生活消费支出表征农村经济发展水平,通过传统马尔科夫链和空间马尔科夫链方法,分别构建农村经济发展水平的非空间和空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵,对研究时段的农村经济发展水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析与预测。研究结果表明:(1)各地区农民人均收入水平和消费水平均沿着其最初类型稳步演进,农村经济发展水平存在着"俱乐部趋同"现象。(2)地区间的农村经济发展水平变化受到所邻地区的影响,其在空间上的趋同过程不独立。(3)农村经济发展水平相互作用呈现出显著的空间分异,较发达的川南地区发生向下转移,不发达或欠发达的川西地区则发生向上转移,四川省各地区农村经济发展水平差异将进一步缩小。(4)地区类型转移受周围地区的影响,表现为农民消费水平的空间趋同变化明显于收入水平的空间趋同变化。     

Spanish Household Demand for Seafood

Seafood is an important food commodity in Spain, the second largest consuming nation of seafood in the world. Today, several changes in demographics, socioeconomic factors, and lifestyle changes have affected demand for seafood products. Double‐hurdle models allow an examination of Spanish household expenditures on these products and explicitly account for the value of women's time. The empirical evidence shows that the set of statistically significant factors in the participation and expenditure equations is not the same for fresh and processed seafood goods. Income and household demographic variables are important determinants of both participation and expenditures on seafood products. In addition, the value of women's time affects expenditures on processed products, which include frozen, cured, and canned seafood goods.     

基于忠县农户调查的耕地保护经济补偿机制需求分析

研究目的:从意愿角度揭示农户对耕地保护经济补偿机制需求的影响因素,为构建耕地保护经济补偿机制提供建议。研究方法:农户调查法,多项Logistic回归模型分析法。研究结果:农户经济补偿需求意愿存在较大差异;耕地利用比较效益、家庭人口数、家庭年人均纯收入、耕地保护意愿指数、经济补偿期望值、经济发展水平对农户耕地保护经济补偿机制需求影响显著。研究结论:构建重在保障农户权益的经济补偿机制势在必行,必须从补偿区域、补偿对象、补偿运作、补偿来源等方面创新耕地保护经济补偿机制。     

Food Demand in Mexico: An Application of the Amemiya-Tobin Approach to the Estimation of a Censored Food System

The modeling of micro-level food demand patterns requires not only allowing for household heterogeneity, but also addressing the problem of censoring. In this article, we present a variation of the Amemiya-Tobin framework for estimating a censored demand system that allows for household heterogeneity. The unique aspect of our approach is the use of a procedure that ensures the adding up of both latent and observed expenditure shares and also imposes expenditure share nonnegativity. This system is applied to an analysis of food demand based on a random sample of urban Mexican households.     

中国耕地供需变化规律研究

研究目的：探讨中国城市化 — 工业化用地需求和满足粮食安全的耕地供给之间的消长关系及变化规律,以期为国家土地利用政策提供科学依据。研究方法：首先提出关于最小人均耕地面积（即满足粮食安全的人均耕地需求）和耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂的假设。然后对历年中国耕地的统计数据进行订正,重建1980 — 2006年耕地数据序列。据此计算了同期的最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数（反映耕地需求和供给的对比关系）,并验证耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂假设。研究结果：保障粮食安全的人均耕地需求数量逐渐降低,耕地压力指数虽先降后升但总体呈下降趋势。中国在基本满足城市化 — 工业化用地需求和生态退耕,因而满足粮食安全需求的耕地供给不断减少,同时人口又不断增加的情况下,粮食安全状况非但没有恶化,反而有所改善;耕地压力指数非但没有加重,反而有所减轻,根本原因在于土地生产率的不断提高。耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂增长过程的推导和证明,显示了两个拐点分别出现在1980年和2050年,前者是从缓慢到加速的转折点;后者是从增长到停滞的转折点,保证粮食安全的耕地供给将趋于稳定。其间还有一个由加速到减缓的拐点将出现在2015年。研究结论：城市化 — 工业化用地需求和粮食安全用地需求可以兼顾。     

Do Differences in the Scale of Irrigation Projects Generate Different Impacts on Poverty and Production?

This article investigates differences in household production and consumption among small‐ and large‐scale irrigators to assess whether the scale of an irrigation project increases household welfare in Mali. Much of the evidence of the impact of irrigation does not use counterfactual analysis to estimate such impact or distinguish between the scale of the irrigation projects to be evaluated. In the dataset collected by the author, both a large‐scale irrigation project and small‐scale projects are used to construct counterfactual groups. Propensity score matching is used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated for small and large irrigators relative to non‐irrigators on agricultural production, agricultural income and consumption per capita. Small‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on agricultural production and agricultural income than large‐scale irrigation, but large‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on consumption per capita. This suggests that market integration and non‐farm externalities are important in realising gains in agricultural surplus from irrigation.