Stockholder returns and international acquisitions of financial firms: An emphasis on banking

The wealth effects for shareholders of American financial firms involved in foreign acquisitions and also the wealth effects for shareholders of U.S. target firms acquired by foreign concerns are the topics of this study. The findings indicate that stockholders of U.S. bidding financial firms (and its subset of banks) earn neither abnormal gains nor suffer abnormal losses upon the announcement of an acquisition or regulatory approval. On the other hand, stockholders of U.S. target financial firms (and its subset of banks) earn significant abnormal profits at both the announcement of the proposed acquisition and the announcement of regulatory approval of the acquisition. The wealth effects for these two samples are also compared to samples in which both parties to the acquisition are U.S. firms. The research suggests that there is no significant difference in the size of the announcement gains or losses for either stockholders of the target or bidding firms based on whether the acquisition is foreign or domestic. These findings conflict with prior research which indicates that, for firms in general, stockholders of U.S. targets earn significantly greater wealth benefits when they are acquired by foreign firms than by domestic firms. Overall, these results are consistent with a competitive market for acquisitions of financial firms in which buyers do not earn or lose at the announcement of an acquisition, and in which abnormal gains are received only by the sellers.     

Divestments and financial distress in leveraged buyouts

This paper investigates the wealth effects of 134 divestments by 41 firms that underwent leveraged buyouts in the 1980s. Stock in these companies is privately owned. Bond returns for publicly traded debt are used to measure the wealth effects of the divestment announcement. These divestments are, on average, not associated with significant wealth effects for the full sample. However, firms that experience financial distress have negative and significant abnormal returns associated with their divestments, while returns in non-event months are insignificant. In contrast, non-distressed firms gain when asset sales are announced. The losses suffered by bondholders in distressed sellers are large and significant when core assets are divested. Bondholders in these firms do not suffer significant losses when non-core assets are divested. Finally, abnormal bond returns are related to the structure of the firms' post-buyout debt. Returns are negatively related to the use of private debt in the capital structure and positively related to the use of subordinated debt.     

Price and Volume Effects Associated with 2003’s Major Reorganization of German Stock Indices

This paper investigates whether the announcement and/or the implementation of the major changes in March 2003 to the German stock index landscape led to significant price and volume effects. We examine five stock subgroups that were either removed from their former indices or that were added to existing or newly constructed indices. Around the announcement date, stocks in these groups are subject to (cumulative) positive average abnormal marketadjusted returns, whereas the average trading volume tends to decrease. Around the actual change date, (cumulative) abnormal returns are mainly positive, while findings on abnormal transaction volumes are fairly heterogeneous. Our empirical results are not supported by any of the prevailing theoretical explanations of market reactions to index changes, but, as an important result, all findings depend crucially on the chosen benchmark model.The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for insightful comments and suggestions and for helpful discussions with Stephan Schmidt-Tank. They would like to thank Fabian Zettler for his assistance in collecting the data.     

INDUSTRY PROSPECTS AND ACQUIRER RETURNS IN DIVERSIFYING TAKEOVERS

We use a sample of 816 diversifying takeovers from 1978 to 2003 to examine whether takeover announcements release negative information about the future prospects of the acquirer's main industry. We find that rivals that are most similar to the acquirer (homogeneous rivals) experience significant negative cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) around takeover announcements. Takeovers that result in negative wealth effects to acquirers are associated with negative abnormal revisions in analysts' forecasts of homogeneous rivals' earnings per share. We also find a decline in the posttakeover operating performance of rival firms. The decline is especially pronounced for homogeneous rivals and for takeovers with negative wealth effects to acquirers. Our findings imply that CAR-based estimates of acquirer wealth gains from takeovers that do not account for industrywide information releases are significantly biased downward.     

Do spin-offs really create value? The European case

We study wealth effects for a sample of 156 spin-offs from 15 different European countries that were announced between January 1987 and September 2000. The cumulative average abnormal return over the 3-day event window is 2.62%. This number increases to 2.66% for the subsequently completed spin-offs. The cumulative average abnormal return is 3.57% for completed spin-offs by companies that increase their industrial focus and only 0.76% for non-focus increasing companies. The difference between these two sub-samples is significantly different from zero. These results are in line with previous studies for the US. The long-run returns in excess of matching firms are mostly insignificant for parents, subsidiaries and pro-forma combined firms. This result suggests that, unlike US spin-offs, European spin-offs are not associated with long-run superior performance.     

Corporate Governance and Investor Reaction to Reported Earnings: An Exploratory Study of Listed Chinese Companies

This study explores the determinants of listed Chinese companies’ governance practices. It also examines how these companies’ governance practices affect domestic investors’ reaction to their earnings reports. Using publicly disclosed financial information and data directly collected from 148 domestically listed Chinese companies, the findings are consistent with investors in these companies basing their valuation decisions, at least in part, on these companies’ earnings reports. This is indicated by the significant relationship between “unexpected” earnings and cumulative abnormal returns. However, the hypothesized effects of governance practice/choice are, on the whole, not supported. There also is no systematic relation between governance choice and ownership structure. We interpret these findings to imply that in the Chinese securities market, the institutional factors and infrastructure (e.g., legal liability, information intermediation, market for managers, and takeovers) are not yet sufficiently developed to permit individual domestic investors to exert significant influence via their actions in the capital markets.     

PRICE AND VOLUME EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CREATION OF STANDARD & POOR'S MIDCAP INDEX

In this paper we explore price and volume effects associated with the 1991 creation of Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 index. Prior work on changes in the composition of existing indices finds a significant price response to the announcement. Various authors link the effect to price pressure, information, an outwardly shifting demand curve for securities, and the increased attention that comes with inclusion in an index. Using event study methodology, we find significant price and volume effects during the two weeks leading up to the Standard & Poor's announcement, but no significant effect in the two-day interval around the event. Apparently, information leakage and/or anticipation preceded the creation of the index. The price run-up is permanent since the positive abnormal returns leading up through the announcement are not associated with significantly negative abnormal returns after the announcement. In addition, MidCap stocks significantly outperform the market during the fifty-two weeks following the announcement. Using cross-sectional regressions, we show that these prior-period abnormal returns are positively related to abnormal volume and institutional holdings. We also find that firms trading over-the-counter had larger price run-ups than NYSE or AMEX firms.     

Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns

We document that purchasing (selling short) stocks with the most (least) favorable consensus recommendations, in conjunction with daily portfolio rebalancing and a timely response to recommendation changes, yield annual abnormal gross returns greater than four percent. Less frequent portfolio rebalancing or a delay in reacting to recommendation changes diminishes these returns; however, they remain significant for the least favorably rated stocks. We also show that high trading levels are required to capture the excess returns generated by the strategies analyzed, entailing substantial transactions costs and leading to abnormal net returns for these strategies that are not reliably greater than zero.     

Hostile bank takeover offers : Analysis and implications

A comparison of the financial characteristics of banks involved in hostile takeover bids with a control group of nonhostile bank mergers indicates: (1) hostile targets experience abnormal returns that are significantly greater than for the targets of nonhostile bank mergers; (2) hostile bidders experience negative abnormal returns that are insignificantly different than for bidders involved in nonhostile bank mergers; (3) hostile bank acquisition announcements produce positive net wealth effects which are larger than the wealth effects of nonhostile acquisitions; (4) a Logit regression model using financial ratios, stock price data, and ownership data is able to distinguish between hostile and nonhostile targets.     

Stabilizing the market with short sale constraint? New evidence from price jump activities

We re-examine the impact of short-sale constraints (SSC) on market stabilization via realized jump activities during 2002–2009 to circumvent the reverse causality in identifying the policy effects of SSC. We observed that the abnormal downturns under tighter short sale constraints are significantly larger whereas there is no difference for abnormal upturns. Our empirical results survive across a sequence of robustness examinations controlled for market illiquidity. The findings do not support the claims by regulators that restraining short-sales can stabilize prices; instead, SSC has led to a less efficient market with stronger extreme downward returns.     

The January effect for individual corporate bonds

We examine the presence, magnitude and determinants of a January effect for individual corporate bonds. Our results provide empirical evidence of positive and statistically (but not economically) significant abnormal returns in January across different event windows and models. Our results suggest that, in the addition to the term and default factors, the excess stock returns, size and book-to-market factors are priced for individual bond returns. We investigate a number of determinants of the January abnormal returns for individual bonds. Our findings suggest that the reversal and tax-loss selling effects are important determinants of the abnormal returns on individual bonds.     

Are chartists artists? The determinants and profitability of recommendations based on technical analysis

The value of technical analysis (TA) has been debated for decades; however, limited evidence exists on the profitability of investment recommendations issued by technical analysts. These ‘chartists’ sometimes claim that TA is an art rather than a science. We evaluated > 5000 TA-based buy and sell recommendations for stocks and a market index in the Netherlands issued during the period 2004–2010. The sign of a recommendation was generally in line with trading signals resulting from technical trading rules. While recommendation levels were positively associated with price trends prior to the recommendation, we did not find evidence of (abnormal) stock returns after the publication of these recommendations. In addition, stop-loss levels did not contain informational value as no meaningful returns were detected after these trigger levels were met. Given that technical recommendations follow well-known trading rules and that these recommendations are not associated with future abnormal returns, we conclude that technical analysts do not exhibit ‘artistic’ skills.     

Announcement effects of convertible bond loans and warrant-bond loans: An empirical analysis for the Dutch market

This study investigates the announcement effects of offerings of convertible bond loans and warrant-bond loans using data for the Dutch market. The event study analysis shows that announcement effects of convertible bonds are associated with positive but insignificant abnormal returns and that announcements of warrant-bonds are associated with significant positive abnormal returns. These findings are similar to the results for Japanese hybrid debt, as reported by Kang et al. (1995) (Kang, J.K., Kim, Y.C., Park, K.J., Stulz, R.M., 1995. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, pp. 257–270) and Kang and Stulz (1996) (Kang, J.K., Stulz, R.M., 1996. Review of Financial Studies, pp. 109–139), but they contrast with studies for the United States that generally find significant negative abnormal returns for convertible bond loans and insignificant negative abnormal returns for warrant-bond loans. Our results cannot be attributed to differences in the corporate governance structures of the Netherlands and the United States. We find that the positive abnormal returns for the warrant-bond loans are caused by the packaging of the announcements with other (good) firm-specific news.     

Are interim management statements redundant?

In 2004 the Transparency Directive increased the reporting frequency by mandating the Interim Management Statement (IMS). However, only nine years later, the EU announced that it was making quarterly reporting voluntary again, arguing that IMSs are redundant as they are unlikely to contain any additional information not already required by the Market Abuse Directive (MAD). The current paper tests this argument empirically. For that it collects data on trading statements from a post-MAD pre-IMS year and uses these statements to predict which IMSs are genuinely incremental firm announcements (‘incremental IMSs’) and not simply substitutes for otherwise disclosed trading statements (‘non-incremental IMSs’). It then calculates three-day abnormal return variability and abnormal trading volume associated with incremental and non-incremental IMSs and it makes three observations. First, the introduction of IMSs coincided with a substantial reduction in other trading statements consistent with a large substitution effect between IMSs and non-periodic trading statements. Second, incremental third-quarter IMSs, but not incremental first-quarter IMSs, exhibit significantly positive abnormal return variability and abnormal trading volume, suggesting that the withdrawal of IMSs will involve the loss of some relevant information. Third, higher abnormal return variability and trading volume for non-incremental IMSs, relative to incremental IMSs, are consistent with the argument that a MAD-only regime will ensure the release of most relevant information.     

Is the M&A announcement effect different across Europe? More evidences from continental Europe and the UK

The United Kingdom (UK) and Continental Europe are two of the most dynamic markets for mergers and acquisitions in the world. Using a sample of 2823 European acquisitions announced between 2002 and 2010, we investigate the effect of M&A announcements on stock returns of acquiring companies located in Continental Europe and the UK. The analysis is based on characteristics of takeover transactions such as method of payment, listing status of the target company, geographic scope (cross-border vs. domestic), industry relatedness of the bidding and the target company, amongst other factors. We find that European bidders earn positive abnormal returns both in cross-border and domestic acquisitions, and there is a significant difference between the abnormal returns of stock and cash deals, and between acquisitions of listed and unlisted target companies. However, the cross-border wealth effects are not significantly different between the UK and Continental Europe. We find that bidding firm’s shareholders gain more in equity than in cash offers if they are located in the UK and if they acquire unlisted targets. Cash bids for listed targets are associated with higher abnormal returns for bidders located in Continental Europe. We do not find supportive evidence that industry diversification destroys value for shareholders of both Continental European and the UK bidders.     

INDUSTRY EFFECTS OF ANALYST STOCK REVISIONS

We examine the industry valuation effects of analyst stock revisions and identify the variables that influence these effects. Our results show that industry rivals experience significant abnormal returns in response to revision announcements. Although the mean stock price response suggests contagion effects, there is also evidence of significant competitive effects. The valuation effects are influenced by the magnitude of the rated firm's announcement return, along with analyst‐specific and industry‐specific characteristics. However, the sensitivity of the valuation effects to these characteristics is conditioned on whether the industry effects are contagious or competitive.     

Further evidence on analyst and investor misweighting of prior period cash flows and accruals

We empirically investigate three questions: (i) whether analysts and investors mis-estimate the persistence of operating cash flows, (ii) if so, is the cash flow effect distinct from the accrual effect in the sense that one effect holds after controlling for the other, and (iii) if these are distinct effects, which effect is stronger in magnitude? We find that prior period operating cash flows have a significant positive effect on forecast errors and stock returns consistent with analysts and investors underestimating the persistence of operating cash flows. Further, we find that not only is the operating cash flow effect distinct from the accrual (more specifically the working capital accrual) effect but it is also considerably larger in magnitude. To our knowledge, this is the first study that documents the relative magnitude of prior period cash flow and working capital accrual effects on forecast errors and stock returns. Our findings have several implications for future research and practice. First, the consistency of results across the two sets of users (analysts and investors) suggests that analyst-forecast inefficiencies are less likely to be driven by their incentives to promote stocks and more likely to be a manifestation of a broader phenomenon that has not been thoroughly investigated in prior studies. Second, for practitioners, our results suggest that a trading strategy based on prior period working capital accruals and cash flows would earn higher abnormal returns than a trading strategy based on accruals alone.     

股指期货到期日效应在中国存在吗

本文选取1分钟高频数据作为研究对象,采用带有虚拟变量的自回归模型对沪深300股指期货合约是否具有到期日效应展开实证研究。研究的主要结论有：第一,股指期货合约到期日时,现货市场并没有出现交易量异常放大的现象,反而在到期日的最后两个小时,现货市场的交易量出现异常减少的现象;第二,股指期货合约到期日时,现货市场的波动率并没有出现异常的变化。由以上两个结论来看,沪深300股指期货合约并没有出现所谓的到期日效应,这与我国设计合理的交割结算价确定机制以及特殊的期货市场投资者结构有关。     

The joint determination of audit fees, non-audit fees, and abnormal accruals

Prior research has estimated piece-meal the determinants of audit fees, non-audit fees and abnormal accruals. Intuition, informal analysis, and a variety of theories suggest that audit fees, non-audit fees, and abnormal accruals are jointly determined. We address this endogeneity issue by modeling the confluence of audit fees, fees for non-audit services and abnormal accruals in a system of simultaneous equations. Our joint estimation provides a starting point to look simultaneously at several competing theories. Using audit and non-audit fee data from the UK for 1994–2000, we find evidence consistent with knowledge spillovers (or economies of scope) from auditing to non-audit services and from non-audit services to auditing. While knowledge spillovers from non-audit services to auditing have been found in prior research [e.g. see Simunic, 1984], the presence of knowledge spillovers from auditing to non-audit services is a new result. Contrary to recent results in Ferguson et al. (2000) and Frankel et al. (2002), we do not find support for the assertion that fees for non-audit services increase abnormal accruals. In fact, contrary to the results in Ashbaugh et al. (2003) and Chung and Kallapur (2003), we find that non-audit fees decrease abnormal accruals, which we attribute to the productive effects of non-audit services. We also find evidence that audit fees increase abnormal accruals, consistent with behavioral theories of unconscious influence or bias in the auditor-client relation. The findings are robust to tests with US data. JEL Classification C30 · M40 · M41 · M49     

The effects of changes in index composition on stock prices and volume: Evidence from the Istanbul stock exchange

Previous evidence has shown that stocks included in (excluded from) an index exhibit significant positive (negative) abnormal returns on the announcement day, and that trading volume is affected by the event. This study examines the price and volume effects on stocks associated with the changes in the value-weighted index composition of two indices, of the ISE, where the index funds and index derivatives do not exist. Consistent with previous evidence, stocks included in (excluded from) the index tend to generate positive (negative) abnormal returns in ISE. Volume and volume volatility are also significantly affected. Our results seem to support the hypotheses of price-pressure, imperfect substitute and attention due to the lack of index-funds and derivatives market in Turkey.