China’s Antitrust Policy: Recent Developments and Decision Patterns

Abstract:

In this paper, we review recent antitrust policy developments in China. First, we use a sample of all merger cases reviewed by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) from August 2008 to September 2012 to provide an econometric analysis of merger review patterns. We find that MOFCOM tends to impose restrictions on mergers involving large corporations and does not distinguish between horizontal mergers and vertical and conglomerate mergers. In addition, European firms and U.S. firms face higher chances of restrictions than do firms from other countries. Finally, we provide a qualitative analysis of the investigations against price agreements.     

The Politics of M&A Antitrust

Antitrust regulators play a critical role in protecting market competition. We examine whether the political process affects antitrust reviews of merger transactions. We find that acquirers and targets located in the political districts of powerful U.S. congressional members who serve on committees with antitrust regulatory oversight receive relatively favorable antitrust review outcomes. To establish causality, we use plausibly exogenous shocks to firm–politician links and a falsification test. Additional findings suggest congressional members’ incentives to influence antitrust reviews are affected by three channels: special interests, voter and constituent interests, and ideology. In aggregate, our findings suggest that the political process adversely interferes with the ability of antitrust regulators to provide independent recommendations about anticompetitive mergers.     

Distributive inefficiency in horizontal mergers: Evidence from wealth transfers between merging firms and their customers

The ultimate goal of antitrust enforcement is to maximize the surplus consumers enjoy by enhancing production efficiency and eliminating market power. Previous literature focuses on the average net wealth effects on merging firms and their stakeholder firms and reports evidence of efficiency gains while no evidence of market power in horizontal mergers. In this paper, we examine how efficiency gains distribute between the merging firms and their customer firms. We find a significant negative relation between the combined abnormal returns on the merging firms and those on their customer firms, demonstrating a wealth transfer effect. Such a negative relation is more pronounced when market power is likely to be more intensive. On average, the merging firms gain, and their customers do not lose. Our results suggest that market power allows merging firms to withhold merger gains that would have been passed to the downstream under perfect competition and prevents customers from enjoying the whole consumer surplus. Distributive inefficiency exists in horizontal mergers.     

Bond Market Access,Credit Quality,and Capital Structure: Canadian Evidence

We examine the impact of bond market access (measured by having a credit rating) on leverage for Canadian high credit quality (HQ) and low credit quality (LQ) firms, and find that the leverage impact is more pronounced for LQ firms. The results are similar for U.S. firms. Our results are confirmed when we control for the firm's credit quality, examine the change in leverage around rating initiation, and account for the issue size effect. A similar leverage impact for Canadian and U.S. LQ firms suggests that the Canada‐U.S. bond market integration has mitigated the financial constraints for Canadian LQ firms.     

The changing relation between the Canadian and U.S. yield curves

The term structures of Canada and of the United States, two countries with historically interdependent economic ties, have been closely linked. We investigate the link between Canadian and U.S. yield curves and show previously strong correlations between yield curve components dissipate after Canadian monetary policy reforms in the early 1990s. We attribute the separated ties to the adoption of explicit inflation targets in 1991 and the maintenance of credibility in price stability as a central policy goal by the Bank of Canada. The effect is particularly evident in the diminished cross-country correlations of the short term bond yields. Additionally, there exists strong evidence of cointegration before the reforms, evidence which weakens after the policy change date. Lastly, the results on the term structure are shown using a vector autoregression with an endogenously determined break date for Canadian and U.S. estimates of the three-factor Nelson and Siegel (1987) yield curve model.     

A test of the firm characteristics hypothesis for LIFO choice of Canadian firms

This paper examines whether characteristics of Canadian firms can explain the observed difference in the use of LIFO for valuing inventory between the U.S. and Canada. Characteristics that help explain the choice between LIFO and FIFO use in the U.S. are used to compare Canadian firms to U.S. LIFO users and FIFO users separately. If Canadian firms are characteristically similar to U.S. FIFO users, then the firm characteristics hypothesis would be supported and LIFO would be infrequently used in Canada because few firms are LIFO-like in their underlying characteristics. Univariate nonparametric tests are used to compare U.S. and Canadian firms in the same industries on both an unmatched and matched basis. The results of this comparison indicate that Canadian average cost firms have more characteristics in common with U.S. LIFO users than FIFO users and Canadian FIFO firms have characteristics like both U.S. FIFO and U.S. LIFO firms. Logit models were estimated using the U.S. firms. These models predict that between three and 28% of Canadian firms would use LIFO. Thus, the firm characteristics explanation for infrequent use of LIFO in Canada is not supported by the data. These results imply that several Canadian firms may use LIFO if the institutional setting in Canada was more like that in the U.S.     

Recent Changes in the Regulation of Financial Markets and Reporting in Canada*

The regulation of financial reporting and financial markets has undergone significant change in both the United States and Canada since 2000. In Canada, the regulatory regime is particularly complex and politically controversial, with much speculation about possible future directions. This paper's purpose is to explain the current regulatory environment as it stands in mid‐2006 to assist those who teach or conduct research in this domain. On the basis of a review of existing regulations and related studies, this paper first provides an explanation of the major jurisdictional issues that affect financial reporting and regulation in Canada, including identifying the roles of the key players. Second, it identifies specific reporting changes that might be of particular relevance to prospective capital market researchers. Where relevant, comparisons are made with regulatory provisions in the United States, because the majority of capital markets research concerns U.S. securities exchanges regulation, and the Canadian regulations themselves often refer to U.S. regulations as a point of comparison. We find that the lack of a single national securities regulator in Canada and overlaps in federal and provincial jurisdiction and among regulatory bodies mean there is a large range of players involved in financial markets regulation. Ongoing efforts to improve integration include the new passport system, improved harmonization of securities regulation, and consideration of mergers between some of the involved organizations. Other changes have led to a greater emphasis in Canada on the regulation of continuous disclosure and corporate governance than was previously the case. Changes in specific reporting regulations and guidelines since 2002 have generally increased the amount of disclosure.     

MEAN AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS ACROSS MAJOR NATIONAL STOCK MARKETS: FURTHER EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper provides additional insight into the nature and degree of interdependence of stock markets of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Germany, and it reports the extent to which volatility in these markets influences expected returns. The analysis uses the multivariate GARCH-M model. Although they are considered weak, statistically significant mean spillovers radiate from stock markets of the U.S. to the U.K., Canada, and Germany, and then from the stock markets of Japan to Germany. No relation is found between conditional market volatility and expected returns. Strong time-varying conditional volatility exists in the return series of all markets. The own-volatility spillovers in the U.K. and Canadian markets are insignificant, supporting the view that conditional volatility of returns in these markets is “imported” from abroad, specifically from the U.S. Significant volatility spillovers radiate from the U.S. stock market to all four stock markets, from the U.K. stock market to the Canadian stock market, and from the German stock market to the Japanese stock market. The results are robust and no changes occur in the correlation structure of returns over time.     

Oil price shocks and their transmission mechanism in an oil-exporting economy: A VAR analysis informed by a DSGE model

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks and the oil shock transmission mechanism in an oil-exporting country, Canada. We use a structural VAR with sign restrictions that comes from a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to jointly identify oil price, domestic supply and U.S. and domestic monetary policy shocks. This identification strategy not only controls for reverse causality from the Canadian and U.S. macroeconomic conditions to the real oil prices, but more importantly, it also allows for contemporaneous interactions between the Canadian and U.S. variables. We find that oil shocks have a stimulative effect on Canadian aggregate demand, appreciate the Canadian dollar, improve the terms of trade and reduce real wages. Foreign disturbances, including innovations in oil prices and the U.S. interest rate, have a significant influence on Canadian economic activities. Our counterfactual analysis indicates that the reaction of the U.S. interest rate as an indirect transmission channel for oil price shocks plays a moderate role in explaining the real exchange rate and inflation, but has negligible impacts on the Canadian output and interest rate.     

Regroupements d'entreprises et IFRS: le cas de GlobeCom Corporation et Synthetics Inc.

This case addresses the accounting for mergers and acquisitions in Canada. Since January 1, 2011, any new transactions from mergers and acquisitions made by a public company must be recorded in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). In the case of a partial acquisitions, two theoretical approaches to accounting is allowed under IFRS 3: the approach of a separate entity and the modified approach of the parent entity. For mergers and acquisitions that occurred before this date, firms could either be early adopters to IFRS or firms could apply the Canadian standards that were allowed at the time of reunification. Under Canadian GAAP (CICA, Chap. 1581), partial acquisitions are accounted for using the approach of the parent entity. Canadian public companies that have chosen to recognize their business combinations which occurred before January 1, 2011, according to the approach of the parent entity, may continue to do so even after the enforcement of IFRS. Thus for years to come, we can see in the financial statements of various Canadian public companies business combinations presented in three different ways: according to the separate entity approach, the parent entity approach and, the modified approach of the parent entity. We also include in the case the U.S. GAAP for mergers and acquisitions. In this case, we strongly draw on an acquisition that actually happened, which we adapted to illustrate the three theoretical approaches to account for mergers and acquisitions. In particular, we have changed the name of the company.     

The Announcement Effects of U.S. versus non‐U.S. Bank Mergers: Do They Differ?

Non‐U.S. bank mergers are becoming an increasingly important part of the worldwide economic landscape. Are the market reactions to non‐U.S. bank mergers similar to the reaction in the United States? I address this question by examining abnormal returns of publicly traded partners on the announcement of forty‐one non‐U.S. bank mergers and comparing the returns with a U.S. control group. I find acquirers in non‐U.S. domestic bank mergers earn more and non‐U.S. targets earn less than their U.S. counterparts. However, for the subset of mergers in countries with relatively well‐developed stock markets, I find that partners earn similar returns.     

Establishing banking market definitions through estimation of residual deposit supply equations

We employ a procedure suggested by the Department of Justice's Merger Guidelines (but never before applied to banking) to determine whether nonbank financial institutions should be included as participants in defining the product market relevant to antitrust analyses of proposed bank mergers. We estimate bank “residual supply” relationships indicating the responsiveness of small-scale deposit funds supplied by consumers to the level of interest rates offered for such deposits. Estimated elasticities of residual deposit supply are quite small, implying that only commercial banks should be included as participants in the “antitrust market” relevant to proposed bank mergers.     

Market reaction to announcements of legislative changes and Canadian bank takeovers of Canadian investment dealers

This study examines the market reactions of Canadian banks and investment dealers to regulatory changes regarding the ownership of investment dealers and to announcements of bank takeovers of investment dealers. The statistically significant and negative abnormal returns for the acquiring banks suggest that any potential benefits from economies of scope in joint bank/brokerage activities were totally reflected in the offering prices banks paid to target investment dealers. Consistent with the literature on mergers, positive and statistically significant excess returns are exhibited by the acquired investment dealers prior to takeover announcements. In-play and out-of-play rival (nontarget) investment dealers exhibit statistically significant positive and no abnormal returns, respectively. The findings of this study are consistent with competition in the market for the corporate control of investment dealers, and not with decreased competition in the brokerage industry. The findings imply that consumers of brokerage services are not harmed by takeovers. These findings may be useful to participants in the U.S. and Japanese financial markets as these countries undergo reforms similar to those recently experienced in Canada.     

Seasonality in Canadian treasury bond returns: An institutional explanation

This paper empirically investigates the seasonality in quarterly bond returns in the Canadian government bond market. Four equally weighted bond return indices were calculated for each quarter in the period from 1963:Q2 to 1990:Q3. The seasonality in these quarterly returns was tested and the results support the existence of seasonality in quarterly bond returns in the Canadian government bond market. It appears that bond returns in the last quarter of the year are significantly higher than in any other quarter of the year. This finding contrasts to the results in U.S. studies on Treasury bond returns. An institutional explanation is offered for the documented seasonality in bond returns, linking it to the annual Canada Savings Bond campaign in the last quarter of the year, a unique Canadian phenomenon. This hypothesis is supported by empirical evidence based on a regression analysis. Such finding is consistent with the fact that no seasonality in Treasury bond returns is found in the U.S., at the U.S. Savings Bonds are sold regularly throughout the year.     

The U.S. Share of Trading Volume in Cross‐Listings: Evidence from Canadian Stocks

I analyze the firm‐specific determinants of the U.S. share of trading volume for 126 U.S.‐listed Canadian firms. I find that the U.S. share of volume is directly related to the mass of informed and liquidity traders in the United States relative to Canada, as proxied by relative analyst following, relative duration of listing, and the U.S. share of sales. Evidence also supports the market liquidity argument that the market with lower spreads and greater depths has greater volume. Finally, the U.S. share is directly related to the relative sensitivity of the stock's value to information in the United States.     

Estimating the Equity Risk Premium and Expected Equity Rates of Return: The Case of Canada

It is common to use the average excess return of equities over bonds estimated over long time periods as an expected equity risk premium on the grounds that going back far enough covers most possible economic scenarios. But although this data is useful in guiding the exercise of judgment, it cannot substitute for judgment. Adding more years of data to the near century of Canadian stock and bond returns that inform today's estimate of the equity risk premium will not produce a “random walk” for a simple reason: the historic bond series is the result of a specific historic monetary policy. This is particularly true of and important for the case of Canada, where today's very low current bond yields reflect the emergence of the Canadian dollar as a reserve currency as well as the impact of unconventional monetary policy elsewhere. After analyzing the historic record of the Canadian equity risk premium and noting the need for adjustments when this premium is applied to the current anomalously low Canadian long‐term bond yields, the author reaches the following conclusions:

• The historic Canadian equity risk premium is approximately 5.0% (based on arithmetic returns), which is slightly lower than the roughly 6.0% value for the U.S.
• The historic equity risk premium has not been constant because of obvious changes in the Canadian bond market. To some extent, the huge cycle in which bond yields began their increase from the 4.0% level starting in 1957, when markets were liberalized, and then fell back to the 4.0% level in 2007‐2008 completed an adjustment to changes in fiscal versus monetary policy. However, in 2016, average long Canada bond yields dropped to an anomalously low 1.8%, which is below the long‐term inflation target of the Bank of Canada, and have barely recovered since. It is difficult to view this as an equilibrium rate determined by private investors.
• Of the drop in bond yields, about 0.50% is unique to Government of Canada bonds as they became attractive to sovereign investors as a rare AAA‐rated issuer.
• Using an indicator variable for the post‐2010 years, a simple regression analysis indicates that current long Canada bond yields should be about 2.75% higher but for the recent changes. And for 2018, this means that the 2.35% average long Canada bond yield should have been about 5.0%. Apart from the impact of higher government deficits, this is consistent with average yields before the 2008 financial crisis.
• Adding an adjusted 5.0% long Canada bond yield to the historic equity risk premium in Canada of 4.50% gives 9.50% for the cost of the overall equity market or, given the Bank of Canada's target inflation rate of 2.0%, a real equity return of 7.5%, both slightly higher than the long‐run averages.

In sum, the conventional practice of adding a historic market risk premium to the current low Canada long bond yields would impart a sharp downward bias to current equity cost estimates; use of this method would not be appropriate until long Canada bond yields increase to at least the 4.0% level.     

The stock market and investment

Changes in stock prices have substantial explanatory power forU.S. investment, especially for long-term samples, and evenin the presence of cash flow variables. The stock market dramaticallyout-performs a standard q-variable because the market-equitycomponent of this variable is only a rough proxy for stock marketvalue. Although the stock market did not predict accuratelyafter the crash of October 1987, the errors were not statisticallysignificant. Parallel relationship for Canada raise the puzzlethat Canadian investment appears to react more to the U.S. stockmarket than to the Canadian market.     

Factors affecting transfer pricing and income shifting (?) between Canadian and U.S. transnational corporations

An analysis of organizational, environmental, and financial factors indicates that income shifting may occur among TNCs in the United States and Canada. Some differences in rates of return are partially explained by the larger U.S. TNCs, which experience higher rates of return and prefer non-market methods. Smaller Canadian TNCs, with lower rates of return, prefer market methods.     

Financial structure change and banking income: A Canada–U.S. comparison

Data suggest that the Canadian financial structure, and particularly indirect finance (e.g., banking), have become more market-oriented. We associate this financial trend in part with the regulatory changes that have occurred in Canada since the 1980s. Financial intermediaries are increasingly involved with financial market activities—e.g. off-balance sheet (OBS) activities such as underwriting securities. In this article we analyze the noninterest income attributable to these financial market activities. We find that the variance of Canadian banks’ aggregate operating-income growth is rising because of the increased contribution of noninterest income. Overall, our analysis corroborates the U.S. findings of Stiroh and Rumble (Stiroh, K., 2006. A portfolio view of banking with interest and noninterest assets. Jounal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38, 1351–1361; Stiroh, K., Rumble, A., 2006. The darkside of diversification: the case of U.S. financial holding companies. Journal of Banking and Finance 30, 2131–2161): by contributing to banking income volatility, market-oriented activities do not necessarily yield straightforward diversification benefits to Canadian banks.     

An Empirical Examination of Cash Flow Measures

In recent years in the United States and Canada, there has been an increasing interest in cash flow reporting and a strengthening belief that information on cash flows is valued in the marketplace. However, little research has been devoted to the issue. Regulatory bodies in the U.S. (Financial Accounting Standards Board) and Canada(Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants) require that an enterprise should disclose separately cash flows from operating, financing and investing activities in their cash flow statements. The data in the cash flow statements are expected to help investors assess the firm's liquidity, financial flexibility and risk. On the other hand, the British Accounting Standards Committee (ASC) does not require a statement of cash flows. This study employs a cross-sectional equity valuation model to examine the association of cash flows from operating, financing and investing activities with security prices. A sample of 403 U.S. firms is used for the ten-year period of 1976–85. The results of this study indicate that there exists a strong association between the various cash flow components included in the cash flow statements and the market value of the firm.