Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity

The paper investigates the relation between retail investors’ participation in trading and aggregate stock market liquidity. The findings show a positive and significant relation between retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity. Examination of the determinants of retail investors’ trading reveals that, on average, retail investors with more diversified trading activity tend to trade when liquidity is higher, the frequency of their arrival to the market is not affected by the level of liquidity, and retail investors are willing to trade at a lower liquidity level as sellers than as buyers. Moreover, retail investors’ trading does not create price noise at the aggregate market level. Overall, the evidence suggests that retail investors contribute to market quality.     

Evolution of price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of price effects after one-day abnormal returns and their evolution in the US stock market, using Dow Jones Index over the period 1890–2018. We utilise several statistical tests and econometric methods (the modified cumulative abnormal return approach, regression analysis with dummy variables, R/S analysis (Hurst, 1951), and the trading simulation approach). The results suggest that a strong momentum effect between 1940 and 1980 after a day of positive abnormal returns was present in the US stock market, and it was exploitable for profit. However, after the 1980s this has since disappeared. Overall, price effects after one-day abnormal returns during the analysed period tend to be unstable in terms of their strength and direction (momentum or contrarian effect). Nowadays, the evidence for the price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market is weak. Our results, therefore, are consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo, 2004).     

Contrarian strategies and investor overreaction under price limits

This study investigates the effects of price limits on investment performance of contrarian trading strategies in Taiwan’s stock market over the period 1997 to 2006. All contrarian strategies in intraday limit-hit stocks lead to superior returns relative to the benchmark index return, and the findings support the overreaction effect. Also, there is evidence of delayed overreaction reflected by price continuations for the overnight period and price reversals for the subsequent trading day. Moreover, investment performance of contrarian strategies is related to firm characteristics where investors tend to overreact more in small-size, high-turnover, and non-high-tech stocks. Finally, price overreaction is strong for up-hit stocks in the aftermath of catastrophic events. If overreaction exists, price-limit regulation designed to cool off investors and reduce price volatility may not be effective.     

An Investigation of Stock Price Declines Following Corporate Financing Events: Further Evidence

Prior research documents a large downward drift in stock prices following issuances of debt and equity by US firms. We conduct tests based on both stock price and trading volume to provide evidence on the reasons for this apparent market anomaly. We document evidence of earnings management through accruals prior to external financing and lower operating performance afterward that is associated with the amount of capital raised. The earnings management that precedes external financing and the amount of capital raised are associated with both the post-financing decline in stock price and trading volume around earnings announcements that follow for a period of three years. This evidence is consistent with the proposition that firms raise external capital prior to predictable declines in their operating performance and they release upward biased earnings before these events to manage investor expectations. The failure of many investors to incorporate this information into their trading decisions in a timely manner consistent with limited attention and over-confidence appears to drive stock mispricing. Our evidence does not support the conjecture that the financing anomaly is primarily a statistical artifact or that it is a manifestation of the accrual anomaly.     

Stock overreaction to extreme market events

The paper investigates the behavior of individual US stocks during the 21 trading days following the event of extreme movement in the market index on a day. We find that stocks tend to overreact after both positive and negative events, but in a more pronounced way in the latter case. This behavior is more intense when the market exhibits clustered extreme swings, indicating that the overreaction and market volatility are related. We also identify that the overreaction is driven by the performance of loser stocks that revert more strongly, even as they exhibit a lower market beta than winners.     

Disclosure quality,price efficiency,and expected returns

Using a composite disclosure quality measure, we examine the effect of disclosure quality on price delay and the effect of price delay determined by disclosure quality on expected returns in the Taiwan stock market. We find that higher disclosure quality can reduce stock price delay through more investor attention and higher stock liquidity after we control for accounting quality variables and consider the endogeneity issue. Furthermore, we show that disclosure quality reduces expected stock returns through the price efficiency channel associated with both investor attention and stock liquidity. Our results indicate that increasing a firm’s standardized information rating by one standard deviation can reduce its expected stock return by 0.63% annually. Taken together, our evidence suggests that regulatory activities enforced to improve public firms’ disclosure quality in the Taiwan stock market can make the stock market more efficient and therefore lower investors’ required return for stocks.     

离岸与在岸股指期货市场的价格联动关系研究——基于国内股指期货市场受限的实证分析

金融资产的价格发现权是各国经济主权的重要组成部分,关系到市场秩序和国民财富的安全。从历史经验看,一旦在岸市场出现发展迟滞或过度管制等问题,竞争性离岸市场就会利用契机快速发展。以2015年国内股指期货受限事件为自然实验,分析新加坡交易所A50与国内沪深300股指期货的价格联动关系,研究表明：国内市场受限后,A50股指期货的持仓量呈明显上升趋势,承载的避险需求增大,其夜盘和盘前涨跌能有效预测沪深300指数开盘走势;在同步交易时段,沪深300股指期货在价格发现中的贡献度为64.4%,仍明显高于A50股指期货;境内熔断触发后,A50股指期货的成交量没有显著减少,表明在岸市场暂停无法显著制约离岸市场的价格发现能力。     

International stock exchange listing and the reduction of political risk

The impending 1997 assimilation into the People's Republic of China made the 1980s a challenging period for Hong Kong, one in which Kong Kong-based companies relocated their corporate domiciles to other countries as political insurance. International listing, however, is another way for companies to reduce political risk. This paper examines the post-1985 effects of Hong Kong-based company stocks being quoted on London's International Stock Exchange. We document that there is no price effect for these companies after the first trading day and a significant increase in the average trading volume surrounding the event day. This may be attributed to the London market makers who build up their stakes before the listing and who unwind their positions in the Hong Kong market after the event day. We also find that there is, on average, a decrease in systematic risk of these companies after being traded on the London market. Furthermore, the evidence shows that there is an increase in systematic risk for companies that are not listed in London after 4 June 1989, however, not for those London-listed Hong Kong companies. The results constitute evidence to support the inference that there is a reduction of local political risk for internationally listed companies.     

沪深300股指期货在现货交易和非交易时段交易特征的比较研究

我国沪深300股指期货交易2010年4月16日正式推出,但沪深300股指期货市场与沪深300现货市场的交易时间存在显著的差异,即相对于股票现货市场,沪深300股指期货市场提前15分钟开盘,延迟15分钟收盘。运用日内分笔数据和分钟数据,对沪深300股指期货不同交易时段的交易特征进行比较。研究表明,不同交易时段知情交易者市场参与度存在明显差异,提前交易时段知情交易的概率最高,现货交易时段次之,延迟交易时段最低;沪深300股指期货在开盘时段的交易提供了较大的价格发现,特别是开盘的第一笔交易包含有大量的私有信息,价格贡献最大;提前交易时段私有信息的价格发现贡献度最高;尽管提前交易时段的交易提供了较大的价格发现,但定价效率较低。     

涨跌停板制度对期货市场价格发现过程及波动性的影响--基于上海期货交易所的实证研究

本文通过检验在出现涨跌停板之后一个交易日的期货价格及其波动性的变化情况，研究了涨跌停板制度对上海期货交易所期货价格变动的影响。研究结果显示，对不同的期货品种，涨跌停板制度的影响存在一定的差异，但总体而言，涨跌停板制度并没有起到防范价格过度反应和降低市场波动性的作用。相反，在一定程度上延缓了期货市场价格发现功能的发挥，增大了市场的波动性。     

The impact of option listing on the price volatility and trading volume of underlying OTC stocks

This paper examines the impact of an initial option listing on the price volatility and trading volume of underlying OTC stocks. The sample is divided by market value to determine whether larger firms are impacted differently by option listing than smaller firms. We find relative trading volume increases significantly, with the small and medium market value firms showing the largest gain. However, the tests show no evidence of changes in price volatility following option listing. No significant changes were found in either the firms' betas or variance following option initiation. The results provide further evidence that option listing does not destabilize the market for the underlying stock.     

An analysis of the opening mechanisms of Exchange Traded Fund markets

We examine the opening of Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) markets in a multimarket trading environment. We find that the opening trades on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) are the most costly. This result is consistent with the market power hypothesis which suggests that the specialists use their informational advantage about the order imbalance at the open or take advantage of the inelastic demand at the open by imposing wider spreads. We also find that the transparent opening mechanisms of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Electronic Communication Networks (ECNs) enable them to facilitate greater price discovery at the opening and to have more efficient opening prices. This result implies that the transparency effect dominates the market power effect. Further, we find that peripheral markets do not passively free ride on information revealed through the AMEX because their opening trades contribute significantly to the price discovery process.     

The persistence of the small firm/January effect: Is it consistent with investors’ learning and arbitrage efforts?

Using improved methodology and an expanded research design, we examine whether the small firm/January effect (Keim, D. B. (1983). Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality: further empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics 12:13–32), is declining over time due to market efficiency. First, we find that January returns are smaller after 1963–1979, but have simply reverted to levels that existed before that time. Second, we show that the January effect is not limited to mature markets but also appears in firms trading on the relatively new NASDAQ exchange in the 1970s. Third, trading volume for small firms in December and January is not different from other months, implying that traders are not actively arbitraging the anomaly. Together, our results suggest that this anomaly continues to defy rational explanation in an efficient market.     

Can educational expansion improve income inequality? Evidences from the CHNS 1997 and 2006 data

Rapid education expansion and rising income inequality are two striking phenomena occurring in China during the transitional period. Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data collected in 1997 and 2006, this paper studies how education affects individual earnings during the transitional process. We find that education accounts for only a small fraction of the personal earnings and income gap between different groups. We analyze the underlying mechanism of the impact of education on earning. More educated people tend to enter state-owned sectors, have a low probability of changing jobs in the labor market and work less time; all of these will have a pronounced impact on earning and income inequality. Quantile regression analysis shows that the low-income group's education return rate is lower, which helps little in narrowing the income gap. We decompose the earning gap into four factors: population effect, price effect, labor choice effect and unobservable effect. In explaining the earning gap in China, the price effect is more important than the population effect. The labor choice effect is also significant. We conclude that increasing educational expenditure with no complementary measures such as reforming the education system and establishing a competitive labor market helps less in reducing income inequality.     

Animal Behavior in Capital markets: Herding formation dynamics,trading volume,and the role of COVID-19 pandemic

This paper provides new evidence on herding behavior. Using daily frequency data for 336 US listed firms over a five-year period, we investigate three important elements of financial herding behavior. First, trading volume, representing market interest, as a significant variable in capital markets apart from stock prices. Second, herding dynamics since herding formation is a dynamic process. Third, the reaction of possible financial herding to exogenous events-threats, as we use the pandemic event in order to investigate a market under stress. Even though the benchmark herding model used does not provide evidence of herding behavior, our results verify the significance of the above herding elements. We also find that trading volume and positive changes in trading volume result in increased cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD). Most importantly, we find that herding behavior is evident during the COVID-19 pandemic confirming that investors tend to herd during major crisis periods.     

Beating the market? A mathematical puzzle for market efficiency

The efficient market hypothesis is highly discussed in economic literature. In its strongest form, it states that there are no price trends. When weakening the non-trending assumption to arbitrary short, small, and fully unknown trends, we mathematically prove for a specific class of control-based trading strategies positive expected gains. These strategies are model free, i.e., a trader neither has to think about predictable patterns nor has to estimate market parameters such as the trend’s sign like momentum traders have to do. That means, since the trader does not have to know any trend, even trends too small to find are enough to beat the market. Adjustments for risk and comparisons with buy-and-hold strategies do not satisfactorily solve the problem. In detail, we generalize results from the literature on control-based trading strategies to market settings without specific model assumptions, but with time-varying parameters in discrete and continuous time. We give closed-form formulae for the expected gain as well as the gain’s variance and generalize control-based trading rules to a setting where older information counts less. In addition, we perform an exemplary backtesting study taking transaction costs and bid-ask spreads into account and still observe—on average—positive gains.

     

Do price limits hurt the market?

Under an artificial stock market composed of bounded-rational and heterogeneous traders, this paper examines whether or not price limits generate the negative effects on the market. Through testing the volatility spillover hypothesis, the delayed price discovery hypothesis, and the trading interference hypothesis, we find that no evidence of volatility spillover is observed. However, the phenomena of delayed price discovery and trading interference indeed exist, and their significance depends on the level of the price limits.     

Large price movements and short-lived changes in spreads,volume, and selling pressure

In this paper we examine changes in dollar and relative bid-ask spreads of stocks following large price movements. We investigate large increases and decreases separately and link our results to current market microstructure theories on trading activities and spreads. We also look at changes in volume and selling pressure to interpret the changes in trading activity. Our results show that the market reacts differently to price increases and decreases. For large price decreases, trading increases on the sell side even when spreads have increased. For large price increases, trading increases on the buy side during a period of higher spreads. However, the increases in dollar spreads and price pressure are most pronounced at the end of trading day. Our results are consistent with microstructure models that link trading activities and costs to the level of asymmetric information.     

Trading patterns in the European carbon market: The role of trading intensity and OTC transactions

This paper examines the effect of trading intensity and OTC transactions on expected market conditions in the early development period of the European Carbon futures market. Past duration and trading intensity are used as information related order flow variables in modelling time between transactions in two new specifications of Autocorrelation Conditional Duration (ACD) models. This allows for specific investigation of non-linear asymmetric effects on expected duration and the impact of OTC transactions. Evidence is presented of two main types of trading episodes of increased and decreased trading intensity. Both have a significant impact on price volatility, which increases further if an OTC transaction intrudes. OTC transactions also play a dual role. They slow down trading activity in the short term (over the next five transactions) but increase it substantially in the long term (over ten transactions). Both the liquidity and information price impact components increase following an OTC trade, but the information impact is greater. Price volatility calms down faster than liquidity effects following an OTC trade, and this is more pronounced in ECX and in Phase II. The combined evidence points towards increased market depth, efficiency and maturity of the trading environment.     

Modelling the iron ore price index: A new perspective from a hybrid data reconstructed EEMD-GORU model

As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource, predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects. Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network, this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China’s iron ore futures and spot markets, and to forecast the price index series of China’s and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market. The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets. However, the forward price in China’s iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market, and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information. The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets. The results are valuable references for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.