Cross-sectional variation in the stock market reaction to bond rating changes

Previous research has found that the stock market reacts negatively to bond rating downgrades and that downgrades tend to follow periods of negative returns, indicating that at least some downgrades are partially predictable. Hypothesizing that the reaction to a downgrade depends on both the implications for cash flows and the degree of surprise, we explore how the reaction to downgrade announcements varies across bond issues. We find that the equity market reacts much more negatively to bond rating downgrades to and within the speculative bond category than to downgrades within the investment grade category. Within the speculative category, the reaction is stronger, the lower the old and new ratings are. The reaction to multiple-level downgrades is not very different from that to single-level downgrades. The market reaction is also stronger if the firm has experienced negative pre-downgrade abnormal returns. Our evidence indicates that downgrades are viewed by the market as providing information on likely future earnings before interest charges, not just likely future interest charges. It is also consistent with Billett's (1996) hypothesis that low rated debt makes a firm less attractive as a takeover target.     

Executive compensation,method of payment and abnormal returns to bidding firms at takeover announcements

This study investigates the association between method of payment, long-term performance plans, managerial stockholdings and abnormal returns to bidding firms at takeover announcements, using a cross-sectional regression methodology. Previous studies have examined each of these factors separately. The results indicate that firms with long-term performance plans and high managerial stockholdings in cash offers experience significantly higher abnormal returns at the announcement of mergers prior to 1980. The study provides additional evidence in explaining the previous conflicting results (Jensen and Ruback, 1985), examining the stock market reaction of bidding firms at merger announcements.     

Private debt, unused credit lines, and seasoned equity offerings

We study a sample of SEOs to examine the impact of private debt and unused credit lines on SEO underpricing and long-run stock and operating performance. We do not find significant effects of private debt financing on SEO underpricing and long-run stock underperformance. However, firms with more bank debt and unused lines of credit exhibit significantly better pre-issue operating performance. Changes in operating performance from the pre-issue year to the post-issue period are negatively related to the size of unused credit lines. Capital spending decreases with the size of unused credit lines in the year prior to SEOs, but increases following SEOs. Our overall evidence suggests that the post-issue operating performance we observed may be a result of overinvestment, which is enhanced by unused credit lines.     

金融发展对企业技术创新模式影响研究——基于中国高技术产业的实证分析

运用中国高技术产业统计数据,实证分析了金融发展对不同技术创新模式的作用机制,并探讨企业所有权性质对这种作用机制是否存在以及存在何种影响。实证分析结果表明：我国信贷市场发展比股票市场发展对自主创新的促进作用更大,并且这种促进作用并不受到企业所有权性质的影响;信贷市场发展对于增加国有企业R&D经费进而促进自主创新的作用更大,而股票市场发展对于增加民营企业R&D经费进而促进自主创新的促进作用更大、更显著;我国金融发展对于国有企业的自主创新与模仿创新的促进作用较大,而对民营企业的促进作用相对较小。     

Wealth transfer effects between stockholders and bondholders

Prior research has addressed the question of whether certain events cause a transfer of wealth between stockholders and bondholders but does not control for the events’ impacts on firms’ credit risk. This may explain why many studies fail to identify wealth transfers. By employing announcements of reductions in credit quality, we find that two types of events cause wealth transfers from bondholders to stockholders. These are unexpected increases in firm leverage, and the firms’ contemporaneous involvement in M&A. Both cases reveal positive excess stock returns and CDS premiums, which exhibit a significantly positive correlation.     

Long-term stock performance following extraordinary and special cash dividends

Using essentially all declared extraordinary and special cash dividends between 1926 and 2001 which are not preceded or followed by the same for a period of three years, we find no robust post-declaration long-term abnormal stock returns, even in sub-samples defined by the special dividend yield, the bang-for-the-buck, the declaration-period abnormal return, the sub-sampling period or the stock market condition at declaration. Only event firms in the smallest CRSP market capitalization quintile display significant positive abnormal returns during the first-year following the declaration. However, these latter are not robust across sub-sampling periods. Overall, there is no compelling evidence that investors under- or over-react to extraordinary or special cash dividends.     

International acquisitions in the united states: Evidence from returns to foreign bidders

This paper provides evidence on the minimally explored topic of abnormal returns earned by stockholders of foreign bidders seeking to acquire a target firm in the USA. Four sources of influence on abnormal returns are identified: changes in net wealth of the bidder associated with changes in exchange rates; possible value-destroying managerial discretionary behavior by bidders with excess cash flows, as suggested by Jensen; comparative advantages for foreign bidders domiciled in relatively favorable tax jurisdictions; ownership status of the target, i.e. whether the target is an entire firm and whether it involves divested assets. The study includes 77 firms from 10 countries. The results show that stockholders of foreign bidders earn significant, negative abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of an acquisition in the USA. These abnormal returns become increasingly negative over the 15 days after the announcement of the acquisition, indicating that more information about the acquisition is revealed to investors subsequent to the initial announcement. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that relative exchange rates and cash positions explain variation in abnormal returns. A decline in the value of the dollar increases abnormal returns for the foreign bidder, thus supporting the net wealth hypothesis. The results also show that cash-rich foreign firms tend to enjoy higher abnormal returns when making acquisitions in the USA. The result provides support for the Froot and Stein cash-constrained hypothesis rather than for Jensen's free-cash-flow theory.     

The relationship between information technology capability,inventory efficiency,and shareholder wealth: A firm-level empirical analysis

Inventories represent an important strategic resource for firms, with implications for shareholder wealth. As such, firms expend considerable effort in managing their inventories efficiently. Among other factors, information technology (IT) capability can play an important role in enabling inventory efficiency and financial performance. However, insight into the chain-of-effects linking IT capability, inventory efficiency, and stock market returns and risk remains limited. In this paper, we provide a conceptual model outlining the relationships between these constructs. Next, we evaluate the model using secondary information on firms from multiple industries across the 10-year time period of 2000–2009. Our analysis confirms that firms’ IT capability plays a significant role in enhancing their inventory efficiency, which, in turn, is observed to increase stock market returns. Our results also reveal that firms’ IT capability directly reduces their stock market risk and enhances their stock market returns. Taken together, these findings, along with the conceptual model that we advance, have important research and managerial implications.     

Asset sales and takeover threats

This research addresses the question of whether the existence of a recent takeover threat affects the market reaction to a subsequent sale of assets. The effect of a prior takeover threat on the stock price reaction to an asset sale is examined from the perspective of both the buying firm and the selling firm. The total gains to the transaction are estimated as a market weighted average of the abnormal returns to the two firms. The results show that when there has not been a recent takeover threat on the selling firm, abnormal returns are significantly positive for the seller, the buyer and in total. However, if the selling firm has faced a takeover threat within the previous year, the abnormal returns upon announcement of an asset sale are insignificant for the seller, negative for the buyer, and negative for a portfolio of the two. Hence, the market has a lower estimate of the overall gains in transactions that follow takeover threats on the selling firm; in fact, these transactions result in a net wealth reduction.     

The role of the seller’s stock performance in the market reaction to divestiture announcements

Divestitures have the potential to create shareholder value. However, the extent of the market reaction should depend on the likelihood of finding more valuable uses for the divested assets or the ability on the part of the seller to eliminate negative synergies. We hypothesize that strong performers have less scope to achieve substantial improvements compared to poorly performing firms. Using the seller’s stock return in excess of the market return in the 1-year and 2-year periods preceding the divestiture announcement to expose the divesting firm’s inefficient use of its assets, we show that the market reaction to divestiture announcements is significantly higher for underperforming firms. The difference in abnormal returns can be as high as 4 %. In contrast, none of the accounting-based variables that have been used in previous studies are found to be significantly related to the announcement returns. These results suggest that the firm’s stock performance is a more useful indicator of the wealth effect associated with divestitures.     

Do cryptocurrencies provide better hedging? Evidence from major equity markets during COVID-19 pandemic

Using the five-minute interval price data of two cryptocurrencies and eight stock market indices, we examine the risk spillover and hedging effectiveness between these two assets. Our approach provides a comparative assessment encompassing the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 sample periods. We employ copula models to assess the dependence and risk spillover from Bitcoin and Ethereum to stock market returns during both the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk spillover from Bitcoin and Ethereum to stock market returns. The findings vis-à-vis portfolio weights and hedge effectiveness highlight hedging gains; however, optimal investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum have reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, while the cost of hedging has increased during this period. The findings also confirm that cryptocurrencies cannot provide incremental gains by hedging stock market risk during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

HOW DO RATING AGENCIES’ DECISIONS IMPACT STOCK MARKETS? A META‐ANALYSIS

The purpose of this study is to examine how credit rating agencies’ decisions impact the stock market using a systematic and quantitative review of existing empirical studies. Specifically, we employ a meta‐regression analysis (MRA) to investigate the extent and nature of the effect of rating agencies’ decisions on the stock market. We survey 62 studies published between 1978 and 2015. Our first finding is that the cumulative average abnormal returns calculated from this empirical literature are affected by publication bias. After controlling for publication bias, the main findings of our meta‐analysis indicate that negative rating decisions cause statistically significant negative abnormal returns. This evidence suggests an informational effect. Our results also indicate that positive rating decisions do not have a significant effect. Finally, the MRA results reveal the importance of several factors related to primary study design, as well as to the nature of the data.     

The Information Content of Concurrently Announced Earnings, Cash Dividends, and Stock Dividends: An Investigation of the Chinese Stock Market

The firms listed on China's stock market are less than ten years old and to date there has been relatively little research on the usefulness of their accounting disclosures for investors. This study focuses on the information content of annual earnings and dividend announcements made by listed Chinese companies. Earnings, cash dividends, and stock dividends are announced concurrently in China and so this allows for tests of their information usefulness and of the interactions between the three signals. Based on a data set of up to 1,232 announcements, we find that unexpected earnings, proxied by earnings changes, are positively related to abnormal returns. Thus, earnings are used by investors in setting market prices. Stock dividends corroborate or attenuate the earnings signal. If the sign of the unexpected stock dividend (increase, decrease) is the same as the sign of the unexpected earnings, then the earnings signal is stronger. If the signs are opposite, the earnings signal is weaker. Unexpected cash dividends have little impact on the earnings signal. Stock dividends per se have a small association with stock returns. In contrast, cash dividends have no discernible association with stock returns and this is consistent with dividend irrelevance arguments. Our results are robust across a number of sensitivity tests.     

中国上市公司送转行为动因研究——基于高送转样本的检验

关于中国上市公司大量进行股票送转的动机,学术界尚存争论。本文将不同送转理论纳入同一个计量模型,利用2006～2010年进行高送转公司的样本对不同送转理论进行了验证,为解决关于股票送转动机的争论提供了经验证据。实证结果支持了"最适价格假说"与"股本扩张假说",而拒绝"信号传递假说"、"价格幻觉假说"与"股利迎合假说"。此外,本文模型对高送转公司的预测准确度达90%,基于模型预测建立高送转公司的投资组合可以获取较稳定的超额收益。     

Information asymmetry and monitoring in equity private placements

This paper systematically examines the factors that determine price discounts and announcement effects of equity private placements conducted by firms in Taiwan from 2002 to 2008. Different with most studies of private placements using available observations as a whole sample, our study separates the whole sample into subsamples by exchange-listed firms and OTC firms. The results for OTC firms corroborate the information hypothesis; the discounts serve as compensation for investor's costs of assessing firms, while abnormal returns reflect the information about firm quality. On the other hand, the empirical results show that some of our findings support an information explanation and some support a monitoring explanation in the case of exchange-listed firms. It seems that there are different motives behind the exchange-listed firms placing equity privately.     

New evidence on shareholder wealth effects in bank mergers during 1980-2000

This paper employs two unique bank event study methodologies to calculate abnormal returns for bidder, target and combined firms. The first methodology is a modified market model that controls for shocks common to the banking industry. The second is an EGARCH (1, 1) model that adjusts for the violated regression assumptions of the traditional market model event study. The results of both methodologies reveal that target shareholders enjoy significantly positive abnormal returns, whereas the bidder shareholders experience significantly negative abnormal returns. Overall, announcements of bank mergers generate positive wealth effects for the combined shareholders. However, the evidence presented in this paper underscores the importance of the choice of models describing stock returns in examining the impact of bank mergers.     

Returns-to-scale and the equity premium puzzle

A model of heterogenous firms facing idiosyncratic risk is proposed which generates an equity premium of 6 per cent and a risk-free rate of 1.5 per cent even if aggregate returns are risk-free. The premium in this model reflects diminishing returns-to-scale and the fact that equity shares are equal claims to firm output. In the bond market, the risk-free rate reflects trade in assets at marginal rates of return with a linear technology and thus the equity premium in excess returns reflects a comparison of average returns with marginal returns. In the model, credit constraints lower the equity premium and, absent such constraints, the equity premium would roughly double. Since the model may be interpreted as a model of entrepreneurship, this paper also presents estimates from a structural model of entrepreneurship using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances and also finds only a modest level of risk aversion is sufficient to replicate entrepreneurial returns.     

Disclosure quality,price efficiency,and expected returns

Using a composite disclosure quality measure, we examine the effect of disclosure quality on price delay and the effect of price delay determined by disclosure quality on expected returns in the Taiwan stock market. We find that higher disclosure quality can reduce stock price delay through more investor attention and higher stock liquidity after we control for accounting quality variables and consider the endogeneity issue. Furthermore, we show that disclosure quality reduces expected stock returns through the price efficiency channel associated with both investor attention and stock liquidity. Our results indicate that increasing a firm’s standardized information rating by one standard deviation can reduce its expected stock return by 0.63% annually. Taken together, our evidence suggests that regulatory activities enforced to improve public firms’ disclosure quality in the Taiwan stock market can make the stock market more efficient and therefore lower investors’ required return for stocks.     

The impact of reshoring decisions on shareholder wealth

Interest in reshoring, defined as the return of manufacturing and service operations from previously offshored locations to the U.S., has gained momentum recently. Yet, there is no academic evidence on the shareholder value implications of reshoring decisions. This paper analyzes the shareholder wealth effects of 37 reshoring decisions announced by U.S. firms during 2006–2015. Our results indicate that reshoring announcements result in positive abnormal stock returns. Mean (median) abnormal stock returns on reshoring announcements are 0.45% (0.29%), corresponding with a mean (median) market value change of $322.57 million ($31.60 million). Our findings imply that the benefits associated with the reshoring tend to outweigh the costs. This finding is relevant for firms faced with the decision of whether to move business activities from offshore to domestic locations. It is also of interest to policy makers who may seek to further stimulate the reshoring phenomenon.     

Long-run underperformance following private equity placements: The role of growth opportunities

Our results show that the post-offering performance of private equity issuers is related to growth opportunities. We find significant long-run underperformance in stock returns following private placements only for firms with high Tobin's q. High-q firms experience not only poor stock price performance but also poor operating performance. Low-q firms, in contrast, do not display significant stock price or operating underperformance. We further examine three potential explanations for this relation: over-investment in assets by managers, investor skewness preference, and over-optimism about earnings prospects. Our results are consistent with the view that investors are overly optimistic about the prospects of high growth firms.