An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy

Since the first application of technology roadmapping in the late 1970s to support integrated product-technology planning, roadmapping concepts and techniques have been widely adopted at product, technology, company, sector and policy levels. The roadmapping approach is flexible and scalable, and can be customized to suit many different strategic and innovation contexts. However, this demands careful planning and design, including consideration of roadmap structure, process and participation.This paper explores the issues of how to design and architect roadmaps and roadmapping processes, which is crucial if the approach is to provide a framework for supporting effective dialogue and communication within and between organizations. The structure of the roadmap, and the process for developing and maintaining the roadmap, should be designed to serve the purpose for which the activity is intended to satisfy, providing a ‘common language and structure' for both development and deployment of strategy.     

Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study: The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry

If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the International Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (IIMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process.     

Using a design structure matrix to support technology roadmapping for product–service systems

In light of the increasing trend of the use of the product–service system (PSS), tools that can help to analyse complex relationships among products, services and technologies and furthermore support decision-making during their planning are needed. To meet these needs, this study proposes a design structure matrix (DSM)-based technology roadmap (TRM) approach and a case study on mobile services is conducted. While PSS planning may involve a number of teams and organisations, the DSM-based TRM can help with such complex collaborative technology planning and hence lead to better performance. Methodologically, this is one of the first attempts to link DSM and TRM, both of which are widely used in planning stages, and thus is expected to contribute to the advances in TRM methodologies. In practice, this study describes an overall roadmapping process for the PSS, thus providing worthwhile guidelines available to organisations that are in charge of the TRM.     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place.     

Hidden innovators: the role of non-R&D activities

Although R&D has been highlighted as the main source of firm-level innovations, a significant group of firms develop innovations without performing R&D activities. The primary goal of this study is to understand the sources of innovation in such firms. To accomplish this goal, we explore the role played by other, non-R&D activities that can lead to innovation – activities such as technology forecasting, design, use of advanced manufacturing technologies and training. Our empirical analysis is based on a representative panel of Spanish manufacturing firms. The results strongly support the view that non-R&D activities are critical factors in explaining both product and process innovations attained by any firm, especially in the case of firms not performing R&D. Academic, managerial, and policy implications are derived from these results.     

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Application of technology roadmaps to governmental innovation policy for promoting technology convergence

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan has actively involved itself in technology roadmapping in recent years in order to build a broad discussion basis for researchers and business-oriented people in academia, industry and government. This unique attempt is not fully tested in the context whether the “public sector's roadmaps” are viable for promoting innovation and for building tight collaborative relationships between different sectors. However, the authors have been widening the application of roadmapping activities from classical R&D management to new ways of promoting technology convergence, in which the Japanese R&D community is said to be not so accustomed. This paper depicts the governmental agency's objectives, activity details and ways of applications of technology roadmaps and roadmapping. The authors' intention is not only to introduce this kind of governmental activity to the MOT world, but rather to ignite discussions on the usefulness and effectiveness of technology roadmaps and roadmapping in a wide range of knowledge sharing.     

Exploring potential R&D collaborators with complementary technologies: The case of biosensors

The study provides a framework for exploring potential R&D collaborators with technological complementarity in products consisting of multidisciplinary technologies. This framework is proper when firms have insufficient information on who may possess the desired complementary technologies. The proposed framework applies two exploratory methods to patent information. The first method, association analysis, mines the interaction between different technologies for the studied products, and produces results that are useful to understanding the complementarity of various technologies. The proposed framework then uses nonlinear principal components analysis to determine the relationship among integrated technologies, specific technology fields, and patentees. The proposed method allows firms to identify patentees with complementary technologies and locate potential R&D collaborators. This study uses an empirical case from the biosensor industry to illustrate how to identify potential R&D collaborators.     

An Empirical Evaluation of The Effects of R&D Subsidies

R&D subsidies are a common tool of technology policy, but little is known about the effects they have on the behavior of firms. This paper presents evidence on the effects that R&D subsidies have on the R&D effort of recipients, and on the probability that a firm will participate in a program granting R&D subsidies. The empirical model consists of a system of equations: a participation equation; and an R&D effort equation. Endogeneity of public funding is controlled for. Estimates are obtained with a cross-section sample of Spanish firms. The main findings are that: 1) small firms are more likely to obtain a subsidy than large firms, probably reflecting one of the public agency's goals; 2) overall, public funding induces more private effort, but for some firms (30% of participants) full crowding out effects cannot be ruled out, and 3) firm size remains related to effort, whether or not a firm gets public funding.     

Product differentiation, process R&D, and the nature of market competition

We investigate the relationship between process and product R&D and compare the incentives for both types of R&D under different modes of market competition (Bertrand versus Cournot). It is shown that: (i) process R&D investments increase with the degree of product differentiation and firms invest more in product R&D when they can do process R&D than when they cannot; (ii) Bertrand firms have a stronger incentive for product R&D whereas Cournot firms invest more in process R&D; and (iii) cooperation in product R&D promotes both types of R&D relative to competition whereas cooperation in both types of R&D discourages R&D relative to cooperation in just product R&D.     

Firm's objective function and product and process R&D

Firms undertake different kinds of R&D activities. They do product R&D (R&D aimed at improving the quality of existing products, and creating new products). They also do process R&D (R&D aimed at lowering the cost of making existing and new products). Moreover, firms often do both product and process R&D simultaneously. As far as the objective of firms is concerned, this need not be limited to profit-maximization only. Rather, firms may have a broader objective, where they care about profits as well as consumer surplus. This paper studies effects of a firm having a general objective function (that takes into consideration both profits and consumer surplus) on its product and process R&D choices, and corresponding implications.I consider product and process R&D choices of firms in an infinite horizon set-up with discrete time. Firms in my framework can simultaneously do both product and process R&D in every period, face a discrete-choice model of consumer demand with vertical product differentiation, and maximize a discounted, weighted sum of their profits and consumer surplus over the infinite time horizon.I show how process and product R&D differ from each other in my framework, and the role of a firm's objective function in this regard. I compare process and product R&D choices across firms that differ in their objective function, and illustrate effects of providing general R&D subsidies (subsidies given for any R&D, regardless of whether it is product or process R&D) to firms. I also characterize how in my framework, the choice of process R&D in total R&D — R&D composition — by an individual firm varies over time, and how process and product R&D choices, process and product R&D productivity, and the choice of R&D composition vary across firms that differ in size but are otherwise similar.     

Profit-maximizing R&D in response to a random carbon tax

This paper determines a firm’s profit-maximizing R&D response to an uncertain carbon tax, for two different R&D programs: cost reduction of low carbon energy technologies and emissions reductions of currently economic technologies. We find that optimal R&D does not increase monotonically in a carbon tax. R&D into alternative technologies increases only if the firm is flexible enough; R&D into conventional technologies first increases then decreases in a carbon tax. Firms that are very flexible may increase R&D into alternative technologies when the uncertainty surrounding a carbon tax is increased; otherwise firms will generally decrease R&D investment in uncertainty.     

Open innovation and intellectual property strategy: the catch-up processes of two Chinese pharmaceutical firms

We explore the interaction of open innovation and intellectual property (IP) in two Chinese latecomer pharmaceutical firms in their catch-up process. Studying archival data, documentation, and interviews, we found that the two firms exhibited five periods that were characterised by different open innovation activities and R&D capabilities. In their early stages, the two firms lacked R&D functions; thus, they imported technologies and pursued production-oriented strategies. As they gradually entered into collaborations and established their R&D departments, open innovation and IP protection played important and dynamic roles in this process. Thus, a catch-up process involves not only acquiring technological capabilities and innovative competencies but also transforming a firm's capacity to strategies.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Firm size and types of innovation

We propose a general theory of innovation that illustrates the relative benefits of performing process versus product R&D when firm size is endogenous. A firm's size, scope, and R&D portfolio are shown to reflect the same underlying characteristic of the firm, namely manufacturing efficiency. We demonstrate that efficient firms become larger, have greater scope, and perform more of both process and product R&D. In light of decreasing returns to R&D, this implies small firms obtain more product innovations per dollar of R&D than large firms, which is consistent with evidence we present that small firms are more innovative than large firms as they obtain more patent counts and citations per dollar of R&D.     

The impact of technology intermediaries on firm cognitive capacity additionality

Whereas the provision of R&D subsidies has been central to public policy for many years, governments have recently become increasingly involved in stimulating cooperation for innovation and R&D. In many countries, financial support for technology intermediaries has become one of the key measures of indirect public support. However, little research has assessed the impact of indirect policy measures. In this paper, we shed light on the conditions under which technology intermediaries contribute to knowledge and networking outcomes generated by the firms that call upon them. We hereby focus on firm network and competence additionality as measures for cognitive capacity additionality and study the impact of technology intermediaries on firms. In doing so, we distinguish between R&D and R&D related activity technology intermediaries engage in. The results indicate that absorptive capacity of the technology intermediary does not affect cognitive capacity additionality generated by firms in R&D activities, while the results for R&D related activities are mixed and depending on the type of cognitive capacity additionality studied. The absorptive capacity of firms does not directly affect cognitive capacity additionality, but the results of mediation analysis show that firms with higher levels of absorptive capacity use the services of the technology intermediary more intensively, and subsequently generate higher levels of cognitive capacity additionality.     

New technology adoption in a Cournot oligopoly with spillovers

In a two-stage Cournot oligopoly where a subset of firms first make a choice between two alternative production technologies independently and then all firms compete in quantity, the effect of information spillovers is analyzed when the outcome of R&D is uncertain. It is shown that the range of parameter values that support heterogeneous firms in equilibrium will diminish as information spillovers become larger. Particularly, when the spillover effect is so strong that the investment by one firm is beneficial to its R&D active rivals, all active firms will choose the same technology. A similar result can be derived from a socially desirable point of view except that the cut-off magnitude of spillovers is different. By introducing a positive success probability to characterize the uncertainty of the R&D outcome, it is found that when information spillovers are not too small, there will be underinvestment in equilibrium relative to the social optimum.     

R&D investment and internal finance: the cash flow effect

This paper investigates the cash flow effect on R&D investments for firms in Denmark. Evidence is found that internal funds are important in explaining R&D investments, indicating that R&D investment decisions are affected by credit market imperfections. Cash flow sensitivities are larger both for smaller firms and for firms with low debt relative to assets. Furthermore, this effect is also present after controlling for cash flow’s potential role as a predictor of future profitability.