Dynamic adaptive transport policies for handling deep uncertainty

Many long-term transport policy decisions are made by assuming that (1) the range of possible futures is known well enough to predict future changes to the transport system, (2) there is enough knowledge regarding the correct transport system model to estimate policy outcomes, and (3) there is enough knowledge regarding the importance stakeholders currently assign to the various outcomes or will assign in the future. However, for long-term transport policy decisions these assumptions can often not be made, since decision makers, analysts, and experts do not know or cannot agree on (1) how the future will develop, (2) the system models, and/or (3) the value system(s) to be used to rank alternative policies. This paper presents a ‘dynamic adaptive’ approach to policymaking for long-term transport policies that aims at overcoming the shortcomings of traditional approaches for handling deep uncertainty. It allows adaptations in time as knowledge is gathered. The approach is illustrated with dynamic adaptive policies for solving various long-term problems in the fields of road, rail, and air transport.     

Countries, regions and trade: On the welfare impacts of economic integration

We study the impact of falling international trade costs and falling national transport costs on the economic geography of countries involved in an integration process. Each country is formed by two regions between which labor is mobile, whereas there is no international mobility. Goods can be traded both nationally and internationally at positive, but different, costs. A decrease in trade costs and/or in transport costs has a direct impact on prices and wages, which allows us to account for the impact of changes in these parameters on the economic geography and welfare of each country. We show that, as trade barriers fall, the benefits of integration come after its costs. We also show that national transport policies are of the beggar-thy-neighbor type. On both counts, policy coordination is required in the process of economic integration.     

Whatever Inconsistencies and Effects? Explaining the Resilience of the Policy Reforms Applied to Developing Countries

Why is ‘neoliberalism’ still a predominant framework within economics and policy-making? This paper considers the mix of theoretical assumptions, causalities and policies known as the ‘Washington consensus’, focusing on developing countries. First, it analyses their main elements, resilience and effects (the ‘lost decades in spite of policy reform’). Second, it examines the reasons of this resilience and argues that a reason is their adaptive capacity via constant exchanges between facts and conceptual assumptions, because this mix is constituted of heterogeneous elements (from neoclassical theory, ad hoc models or empirics-based policy-making): inconsistency is a core feature and as such its correction is irrelevant. These ‘adaptive inconsistencies’ are consolidated by the simultaneous theoretical/policy dimension of the mix. Its cognitive resilience is reinforced by the irrefutability of causations and the cause/effect time lag (‘after current costs, there will be gains’, e.g. growth), and is not challenged by the social costs of policies.     

我国经济型汽车企业的自主品牌发展

我国自主品牌汽车企业的持续快速发展对振兴我国民族汽车工业具有重要的意义,但是,在企业发展过程中存在国家对于重大项目研究投入相对分散、政府采购对自主品牌支持不足、零部件企业发展滞后、研发资金投入不足、人才支撑体系能力弱等问题。政府应加大政策扶植力度、汽车整车厂与零部件企业应形成战略同盟关系,充分发挥企业家的创新核心作用,充分发挥人才作用等。     

The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance

This paper examines how the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance depends on two key channels: the expectations formation process and the monetary policy regime. The results show that rational expectations relative to an adaptive learning rule amplifies the positive benefits a price-level targeting central bank creates for forward guidance. Specifically, forward guidance generates greater amounts of output and inflation under a price-level than inflation targeting monetary policy regime, but rational expectations overstates these positive benefits compared to adaptive learning. The different responses of expectations between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance are driving this performance gap. Thus, policymakers should consider how expectations are modeled if forward guidance and price-level targeting are implemented in an economy.     

The Question of Access to the Japanese Market*

It is now widely accepted that Japan has relatively low official barriers to merchandise, particularly manufactured goods, trade relative to other industrial countries. Yet, Japan's current account and trade surpluses have encouraged the view that there must be special ‘hidden barriers’ to accessing the Japanese market, and a literature has developed on the premise that Japanese business organizations (keiretsu) limit foreign penetration of markets of manufactured goods. This paper surveys the main elements of this literature and questions some of the assumptions upon which recent American policy in this area seems to have been developed.     

The use of Delphi methodology in agrifood policy development: Some lessons learned

Developing policy in the agrifood area is an inexact process, usually relying upon effective integration of opinions from multiple experts from different disciplines, organisational types, and regions/countries. Delphi would appear to have the potential to overcome some of the typical limitations related to soliciting expert opinion and identifying consensus on future activities or options, particularly where relevant experts are dispersed geographically, and international consensus is required, as is the case in this domain. Three case studies, focused on the application of Delphi to emerging policy needs in international or European agrifood policy, are presented here to exemplify the utility of the technique. A number of practical recommendations are drawn from these case studies that may be applicable to other major policy making arenas. Among these recommendations are; that an exploratory workshop to refine round one Delphi questions is essential; that the implementation of “cascade” methodology (utilizing the personal contacts of researchers or members of existing policy networks) appears to increase response rates in subsequent Delphi rounds; and that the policy issue under discussion should be particularly relevant to stakeholders in order to increase participation rates. Further research might usefully focus on developing ways to incorporate measurements of uncertainty associated with stakeholder judgement into quantitative responses, and on establishing how best to utilise such information in feedback in subsequent Delphi rounds. Ensuring how best to inform policy uptake of the outputs of Delphi merits further research in particular.     

Governance–Based Analysis Of Regulation

This article surveys current literature on the developing nature of regulatory systems and regulatory reforms, attempts to place such arrangements in the pervasive context provided by public policy processes and institutions, and argues that an explanation of the 'governance of regulation' is crucial to an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of regulatory practice. The article begins by defining the range of meanings of regulation, then goes on to emphasize the importance of the framework of governance within which regulatory policy and practice proceed. The location of regulatory reform in contemporary debates on state–market relations and related managerial reforms is examined. Reference to this framework highlights the significance of the public policy process through which regulatory policies must be delivered, and the key role within that framework of political categories of analysis. The article ends by considering the issue of 'policy transfer' between developed and developing economies, and the need for policy–relevant research into regulatory systems and policies in developing countries.     

政策脱轨效应:评估环境政策的新框架

目前我国尚未形成统一的环境政策评估规范体系,而对具体环境政策进行评估时,可能会因不同领域、不同视角、不同评估方法而带来不同的评估结果。针对现有环境政策评估体系存在的局限性,提出可以客观评估环境政策实施效果的框架:政策脱轨效应。从政策脱轨效应的定义、产生原因、分类及评估思路四个方面构建理论体系,同时根据脱轨效应理论框架分析我国不同时期的环境政策。该框架体系的基本特点是:将不同环境政策的评估统一到同一体系之下,以特定的模型和方法,评估环境政策实施是否存在"脱轨效应"。研究表明,环境政策实施后存在发生政策脱轨效应的可能性;消费品之间的替代(或互补)关系、单位环境效益和单位产量排污因子均会影响政策脱轨效应的产生;从脱轨效应角度分析,环境政策制定时的决策目标会影响政策实施效果,只有当环境政策以社会净福利为决策目标时,政策实施才可能避免出现政策脱轨效应,实现环境保护和经济增长的双重红利。     

Seven tools for creating adaptive policies

Experience demonstrates that policies crafted to operate within a certain range of conditions are often faced with unexpected challenges outside of that range. The result is that many policies have unintended impacts and do not accomplish their goals. Adaptive policies are designed to function more effectively in complex, dynamic, and uncertain conditions. Based on over a dozen case studies on public policies relating to agriculture and water resources management in Canada and India, we conclude that there are seven tools policymakers should follow to create adaptive policies. Adaptive policies anticipate and plan for the array of conditions that lie ahead: (#1) using integrated and forward-looking analysis; (#2) monitoring key performance indicators to trigger built-in policy adjustments; (#3) undertaking formal policy review and continuous learning; and (#4) using multi-stakeholder deliberation. But not all situations can be anticipated. Unknown unknowns and deep uncertainty will always be part of policymaking. Adaptive policies are able to navigate toward successful outcomes in settings that cannot be anticipated in advance. This can be done by working in concert with certain characteristics of complex adaptive systems and thereby facilitating autonomous actions among stakeholders on the ground. To a degree, adaptive policy tools #3 and #4 can be used toward this purpose, but most directly, such autonomous tools include: (#5) enabling self-organization and social networking; (#6) decentralizing decisionmaking to the lowest and most effective jurisdictional level; and (#7) promoting variation in policy responses. This paper elaborates on these seven tools as a pragmatic guide for policymakers who find themselves working in highly complex, dynamic, and uncertain settings.     

Cyclicality of fiscal policy and the shadow economy

A survey of recent literature on cyclical properties of fiscal policy reveals that fiscal policy is procyclical in many developing countries whereas it is countercyclical in developed ones. However, there is no consensus on what drives the difference in this specific cyclical property of fiscal policy. Using cross-section and panel data sets for 78 countries we document that procyclicality of fiscal policy is more pronounced in countries with a larger size of the shadow economy. We also show that policies reducing the size of the shadow economy lead to a less (more) procyclical (countercyclical) fiscal response to shocks.     

India’s Green Revolution: Economic Gains and Political Costs

Research and development (R&;D) promotion policies are critical for economic development in the sense that they contribute to technical progress. Although it is true that policy space is restricted under the World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are still some R&;D promotion policy measures made available to developing countries. It is thus necessary for developing countries to utilize such available measures. In addition to explaining the R&;D promotion measures available under the current WTO regulations, I provide suggestions for modifying the Uruguay Round Subsidies Code with respect to the R&;D promotion policies of developing countries from the viewpoint of “distributional fairness” in international trade relations.     

Coexistence of GM and non-GM crops with endogenously determined separation

The possibility that genetically modified (GM) crops may contaminate non-GM crops through pollen-mediated gene flow presents a challenge to coexistence of GM agriculture with conventional and organic farming systems. In this paper an analytical model of coexistence is developed that allows for endogenous derivation of efficient widths and allocation of pollen barriers to limit contamination of non-GM crops. To reflect the uncertainty that surrounds pollen dispersal mechanisms the model contains a stochastic contamination function and safety rule decision mechanism, constraining the level of contamination to remain below a tolerated adventitious presence with a given probability. Two policies are considered and their performance is tested: the tolerance level of adventitious presence, and the allocation of responsibility for implementing coexistence measures to either GM or non-GM farmers. The relative size of GM rents (the value of productivity gains and the non-pecuniary benefits from GM crops), rents for identity preserved non-GM crops (price premiums realised over the GM crop price), characteristics of farms, and possible variation in agricultural landscapes are also taken into account. The findings indicate that conventional adventitious presence tolerances can be met without ex ante mandating large widths of pollen barriers. At the policy level, the findings of this paper are relevant for setting region-specific pollen barriers widths, and/or for establishing institutions that facilitate cooperative coexistence.     

Growth and poverty in developing countries

Despite the developing countries' impressive aggregate growth of the past 25 years, its benefits have only reached the poor to a very limited degree. Not only have the poorest countries grown relatively slowly, but growth processes are such that within most developing countries, the incomes of the poor increase much less than the average. Although many policies have been proposed to counter these trends, little has been done to estimate the possibilities for significantly reducing world poverty within a reasonable period. This paper develops a quantitative framework to project levels of poverty under different assumptions about GNP growth population growth and changes in income distribution. Although the interactions among development processes and policy instruments are not modelled in any detail, the results serve to clarify the nature of the problem. The policy simulations demonstrate that the elimination of absolute poverty by the end of this century is a highly unlikely prospect; even to achieve a substantial reduction will require a combination of policies designed to accelerate the growth of poor countries, to distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, and to reduce population increase.     

A Framework for Policy Oriented Innovation Studies in Industrialising Countries

This paper argues that there is increasing need for the integration of policy considerations in the formulation of research questions and in the development of analytical work in policy oriented innovation studies. Despite the fact that Evolutionary and Innovation Studies theories have offered new ways of incorporating policy, little explicitness in this regard has yet been achieved and there is a risk that academic research following the new perspectives will be of little relevance for policy. Rather than a ‘linear process’ starting with empirical research aimed at linking competitiveness and economic performance to technological capabilities (in a comparative perspective and aimed at identifying ‘best practice’) followed by very abstract and un-grounded ‘policy implications' - a new type of link between positive and normative economics in the field is required. Our approach suggests a new structure for policy-oriented and policy-relevant research, i.e. the integration of research on technological change and industrial transformation with research on policy and the development of a conceptual framework for the design and implementation of innovation policies.     

Elections and economic policy in developing countries

This paper explores the impact of elections on economic policies and governance in developing countries. We distinguish between a structural effect, which increases accountability, and a cyclical effect which may be disruptive. Since the effects are offsetting, neither can be analysed in isolation. We implement an econometric analysis on more than 80 developing countries using positive changes in the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment of the World Bank and the International Country Risk Guide as signalling improvements in economic policy and governance. We find that both structural and cyclical effects matter. The cyclical effect suggests that mid-term is the best moment for policy change. We investigate the structural effect by comparing different frequencies of elections. Except at the extremes, a higher frequency of elections improves both policy and governance net of any cyclical effect. The important exception to this benign net effect is if the electoral process is badly conducted. Badly conducted elections have no structural efficacy for policy improvement. A reasonable interpretation of our results is that honest elections increase accountability and thereby discipline governments to improve economic policy and governance, but that if candidates can win by fraud this chain is broken.
— Lisa Chauvet and Paul Collier     

浅析欧盟利用绿色壁垒限制我国企业的政策趋势

近年来,绿色壁垒成为欧盟限制我国企业的最新趋势。本文对欧盟及其成员国近年来的政策进行了文献调研,分析了这一趋势的表现、成因、影响与应对建议,主要内容如下:欧盟科技创新政策正不断提高绿色壁垒,主要表现为提升进口产品环保标准、支持当地企业环保转型以及推动国际经贸规则中环保标准的提高。我国企业或将受到较大影响。究其原因,绿色壁垒与传统限制手段相比具有更多优势。未来,原材料出口、机电产品等与欧盟环保差距较大的领域可能受到较大影响。建议我国政府密切关注欧盟情况,做好前瞻性应对预案,推动我国企业环保转型。     

Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Different and separate?

The paper discusses how monetary and macroprudential policies can be distinguished, how appropriate goals for the two policies can be determined, whether the policies are best conducted separately or coordinately and by the same or different authorities and how they can be coordinated when desired. The institutional frameworks in Canada, Sweden and the UK are briefly compared. The Swedish example of monetary policy strongly “leaning against the wind” and the subsequent policy turnaround is summarized, as well as what estimates have been found of the costs and benefits of leaning against the wind.     

REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES: AN EVALUATION OF POLICY MEASURES*

This paper analyses the efficacy of regional and federal government policies in reducing inter‐regional unemployment disparities. We use as our framework a two‐region general equilibrium model with a given freely‐mobile supply of labour. We assume inter‐regional migration to occur in response to inter‐regional utility differentials. Each region has households, firms and a regional government. In addition to regional governments, there is a federal government. The firms in a region use a single factor, labour, to produce a single good which we assume to be different to that produced in the other region. It is supplied to households and to the regional government in the form of payroll taxes. Households consume some, trade some with households in the other region and give some up to the federal government as income tax. Firms and households bargain over wages and firms then choose employment to maximise profits. The resulting equilibrium will generally not be a full‐employment one. We simulate a linearised numerical version of the model. We examine seven alternative policies, six carried out by a regional government and one by the federal government. In the first group there are traditional tax/expenditure polices as well as policies which might be seen as attacking the natural rate of unemployment: changes in unemployment benefits, changes in union power, changes in the labour force and changes in labour productivity. The federal government policy is a regionally‐differentiated fiscal policy. Contrary to expectations, many policies which have traditionally been recommended to alleviate unemployment are found, in fact, to exacerbate the unemployment problem.     

Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy

The standard framework in which economists evaluate environmental policies is cost–benefit analysis, so policy debates usually focus on the expected flows of costs and benefits, or on the choice of discount rate. But this can be misleading when there is uncertainty over future outcomes, when there are irreversibilities, and when policy adoption can be delayed. This paper shows how two kinds of uncertainty — over the future costs and benefits of reduced environmental degradation, and over the evolution of an ecosystem — interact with two kinds of irreversibilities — sunk costs associated with an environmental regulation, and sunk benefits of avoided environmental degradation — to affect optimal policy timing and design.