Postformal priorities for postnormal times: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

This essay is a postformal rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's Welcome to Postnormal Times. I have no quarrel with Sardar's conclusion that these times are postnormal, nor do I disagree with many of his observations, but our standpoints regarding implications are somewhat contradictory. Paradoxically, rather than jump into an old paradigm form of debate with Sardar's interpretations of postnormalcy, this rejoinder is a playful postformal response. I celebrate our complementary views as expressions of the complex truths of multiperspectivality. First I question the meaning of normal and postnormal in the context of such notions as “the pathology of normalcy.” Secondly I begin to explore the postnormal circumstances from a postformal perspective. This involves discussion of notions of progress, development, evolution and co-evolution from different points of view as an opener to coming to terms with complexity. I then explore how concepts such as complexity and paradox can be understood as paths to wisdom; how active imagination can be engaged in the service of life; and how engaged imagination can unfold new normative narratives of alternative futures. Such imaginaries of hope are vital for the wellbeing of young people. The essay closes with a call to embrace the richness of complexity and play with—rather than fear—the paradox of planetary pluralism.     

Welcome to postnormal times

All that was ‘normal’ has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks to individuals, society and the planet. Postnormal times demands, this paper argues, that we abandon the ideas of ‘control and management’, and rethink the cherished notions of progress, modernisation and efficiency. The way forward must be based on virtues of humility, modesty and accountability, the indispensible requirement of living with uncertainty, complexity and ignorance. We will have to imagine ourselves out of postnormal times and into a new age of normalcy—with an ethical compass and a broad spectrum of imaginations from the rich diversity of human cultures.     

Post-normal science in postnormal times

Post-normal science (PNS) was a herald of postnormal times. For Functowicz and Ravetz contemporary issues in which ‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’ necessitate PNS. PNS deals with the postnormal character of contemporary challenges by bringing the contextualised insights of non-scientific stakeholders to bear through the formulation of ‘extended facts’. However, while the contextual content of ‘extended facts’ caters to the indeterminate character of postnormal issues this remains in tension with an implicit assumption that outcomes reflect the quality of the ‘facts’ informing them. This paper takes the claim that postnormal times involves ‘that we abandon…ideas of ‘control and management” seriously by arguing that science should be the servant of outcomes framed in, primarily, societal terms, rather than the other way around. This argument is illustrated using the example of fashioning an effective response to climate change.     

Beyond postnormal times: The future of creativity and the creativity of the future

Creativity and imagination are the most important ingredients for coping with post-normal times, according to Sardar. This paper looks at the way creativity itself is being transformed in the West, from the individualistic/atomistic view of Modernity towards a more contextual, collaborative, complex approach. It explores the potential and possibilities for this more participatory creativity to help go beyond the “crisis of the future,” and argues that the centrality of creativity must go beyond the mythology of genius and inspiration to inform philosophy, ethics, and action. Philosophical reflection and the imagination of desirable futures can emerge from a creative ethic that stresses the value of generative interactions and contexts that support creativity.     

论审计理论的逻辑起点

审计理论逻辑起点应是审计理论体系中最基本、最概括、最简明的一个理论范畴；它必须能联系审计理论与审计实践，它能推导论证所有其他相关的审计理论范畴。审计理论的逻辑起点可以是多元的，审计环境与审计本质共同决定了审计目标，二者有“汇合点”，因而共同构成审计理论的逻辑起点。     

Toward a new macrohistory: An extension to Sardar's ‘postnormal times’

How should futurists evaluate Sardar's announcement of ‘postnormal’ times? In contrast to existing images, what light does the postnormal metaphor shed on our global age? This paper views Sardar's postnormal times as embryonic, and extends it using ecosystems theory. To develop Sardar's concept as a macrohistory, Holling's adaptive cycle and panarchical systems are proposed as mechanisms of change that create postnormal times.     

Integration managers: special leaders for special times

Although the integration of an acquired company with the parent organization is a delicate and complicated process, traditionally no one has ever been responsible for that process--for charting how the two companies will combine their operations, for seeing to it that the integration project meets its deadlines and performance targets, and for educating the new people about the parent company and vice versa. Some enlightened companies have recognized this gap and have appointed a guide--the integration manager--to shepherd everyone through the rocky territory that two organizations must cross before they can function effectively together. The authors have interviewed a number of these leaders in depth, as well as some of the people with whom they've worked. They've determined that integration managers help the merger process in four principal ways: they speed it up, create a structure for it, forge social connections between the two organizations, and help engineer short-term successes. In this article, the authors detail five acquisitions--at TI, General Cable, Meritor Automotive, Lucent, and Johnson & Johnson--and discuss the role that integration managers played in each. They describe exactly what sort of person should do this job. The integration manager must be able to jump into complex situations quickly, relate to many levels of authority smoothly, and bridge gaps in culture and perception. The ever-changing organizations of the Internet age will need leaders with similar skills. In fact, the authors contend, the integration manager should be considered a prototype for the leader of the future.     

Perspectives on changing times: implications for insurance medicine

Profound changes are occurring in medicine. These changes are in both medicine itself and also in the economic and social context. The driving forces for change include health care reform, sophisticated consumers, new technology, information explosion and ethics of controlling human biology.     

A sign of the times.

Pressure placed on employers to enhance the bottom line comes from a multitude of changes in the marketplace and has resulted in employers seeking to limit their liabilities and expenses for retiree medical care. To address retiree medical issues, employers have adapted a number of strategies that are presented in this article. These include eliminating or modifying benefits, using a defined contribution approach, capping subsidies and enrolling retirees in Medicare HMOs.     

Lookback options and diffusion hitting times: A spectral expansion approach

Lookback options have payoffs dependent on the maximum and/or minimum of the underlying price attained during the options lifetime. Based on the relationship between diffusion maximum and minimum and hitting times and the spectral decomposition of diffusion hitting times, this paper gives an analytical characterization of lookback option prices in terms of spectral expansions. In particular, analytical solutions for lookback options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) diffusion are obtained.Received: 1 October 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J35, 60J60, 60G70JEL Classification: G13The author thanks Phelim Boyle for bringing the problem of pricing lookback options under the CEV process to his attention and for useful discussions and Viatcheslav Gorovoi for computational assistance. This research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants DMI-0200429 and DMS-0223354.     

Finance theory: A house without windows

In this paper we aim to build on the existing critical finance literature by exploring how finance theory maintains both its momentum and hegemony. More specifically, by using an example at the core of finance theory (namely, portfolio asset allocation) we illustrate how finance keeps itself artificially alive by taking data from the outside world, often ignoring the rich complexities of the context which has given rise to the data, and using these ‘new facts’ to create puzzles which then lead onto more activity to see how the accepted core can or cannot be extended to incorporate the ‘new facts’. Against this process the paper then shows how the more obvious approach of engaging with the various participants can lead to greater insight and understanding. Given this approach, facts are not just anomalies which need to be explained away but part of the environment which help us to understand the various activities of individuals and organisations. The paper concludes by outlining a research agenda which develops a number of streams of research in critical finance and needs to be addressed in an open manner if traditional finance is to move from being closed and increasingly moribund to a subject which captures the vibrancy and dynamism of financial activities/markets across the globe.     

A credibility theory for automobile bonus systems

Summary

This paper deals with the problem of designing experience rating systems of the bonus type, commonly used in automobile insurance. On the basis of a simple model the mean squared deviation between a policy's expected claim amount and its premium in the nth insurance period as n→∞, is taken as a measure of the efficiency of a bonus system. It is shown that to any set of bonus rules (which determines the bonus class transitions of the policies), there is an optimal premium scale, which coincides with the one proposed by Pesonen in 1963. Thus the problem of choosing an efficient bonus system reduces to choosing efficient bonus rules. Examples are given of comparison between different bonus rules. In one example the present Norwegian bonus system is compared to alternative systems. Comments are made on earlier papers on bonus systems. The credibility theoretic foundation is laid in a separate section.     

Global issues and futures: A theory and pedagogy for heuristic modeling

Most futures methodologies might be termed “heuristic”, that is a way to promote learning, discovery, and problem solving through trial and error. This paper describes one such approach, used primarily in teaching a Masters planning program class Global Issues and Futures in a class designed to raise awareness of a variety of global concerns. After explaining the underlying framework and concepts, and their foundation in previous futures studies, the core equations, data, and a classroom application are described. The method serves primarily to raise questions rather than answer them; to broaden the perspective that students will bring to their later careers.¹     

A reading guide for last passage times with financial applications in view

In this survey on last passage times, we propose a new viewpoint which provides a unified approach to many different results which appear in the mathematical finance literature and in the theory of stochastic processes. In particular, we are able to improve the assumptions under which some well-known results are usually stated. Moreover we give some new and detailed calculations for the computation of the distribution of some large classes of last passage times. We have kept in this survey only the aspects of the theory which we expect potentially to be relevant for financial applications.     

黄金充当货币的历史逻辑

历史上先后出现过两种类型的货币,即商品货币和纸币。在商品货币发展的过程中,唯有黄金本位制演变为全球性的货币制度安排。本文分别从黄金优良的物质特性,以及工业革命后英国确立在全球经济和金融领域主导地位、黄金大发现等社会经济因素角度,分析了黄金充当货币的历史逻辑。文章指出,虽然黄金已逐渐淡出国际货币舞台,但其作为一些国家重要的国际储备选项,仍然发挥着国际货币体系价值支撑的作用。     

A theory of the corporate decision to resist FASB standards: An organization theory perspective

This paper develops a theoretical framework that specifies the conditions under which corporations are likely to resist financial reporting standards proposed by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Determinants of corporate resistance to FASB standards are identified at three levels of analysis: the standard, the corporation, and the corporation’s industry. Propositions are formulated summarizing the effects of the determinants at these three levels, and guidelines are suggested for testing the propositions. Implications for the theory and the practice of accounting regulation are also discussed. The overall goal of the paper is to enhance our understanding of the drivers of corporate resistance to FASB standards, so that accounting regulators can manage the implementation of accounting standards more effectively.