Toward a new macrohistory: An extension to Sardar's ‘postnormal times’

How should futurists evaluate Sardar's announcement of ‘postnormal’ times? In contrast to existing images, what light does the postnormal metaphor shed on our global age? This paper views Sardar's postnormal times as embryonic, and extends it using ecosystems theory. To develop Sardar's concept as a macrohistory, Holling's adaptive cycle and panarchical systems are proposed as mechanisms of change that create postnormal times.     

Frameworks for coping with post-normal times: A response to Ziauddin Sardar

This paper is a response to Ziauddin Sardar's “Welcome to postnormal times”. It agrees that times are indeed post normal, and discusses the reasons why this will continue. The paper then suggests three frameworks for helping people (and managers) recognise and deal with these times: a four level complexity hierarchy, scenarios, and the purposeful self-renewing organisation architecture.     

Postformal priorities for postnormal times: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

This essay is a postformal rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's Welcome to Postnormal Times. I have no quarrel with Sardar's conclusion that these times are postnormal, nor do I disagree with many of his observations, but our standpoints regarding implications are somewhat contradictory. Paradoxically, rather than jump into an old paradigm form of debate with Sardar's interpretations of postnormalcy, this rejoinder is a playful postformal response. I celebrate our complementary views as expressions of the complex truths of multiperspectivality. First I question the meaning of normal and postnormal in the context of such notions as “the pathology of normalcy.” Secondly I begin to explore the postnormal circumstances from a postformal perspective. This involves discussion of notions of progress, development, evolution and co-evolution from different points of view as an opener to coming to terms with complexity. I then explore how concepts such as complexity and paradox can be understood as paths to wisdom; how active imagination can be engaged in the service of life; and how engaged imagination can unfold new normative narratives of alternative futures. Such imaginaries of hope are vital for the wellbeing of young people. The essay closes with a call to embrace the richness of complexity and play with—rather than fear—the paradox of planetary pluralism.     

Postnormal network futures: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

Sardar's “Welcome to Postnormal Times” describes the chaotic, contradictory and uncertain climate today, and analyses the failure of progress, modernisation or efficiency to provide ethical, political or even trustworthy economic solutions to the instability of the present. Missing in his analysis is the role of knowledge, especially as it is migrating from individuals to technical networks. This paper argues that recent developments in the networking of knowledge point towards a new constellation in which networks are emerging as major powers alongside the nation and the market, the two pillars of global political economy in the 20th and early 21st century. It responds to Sardar's challenge to imagine the future by imagining the political consequences of recognising non-human agencies as political actors.     

The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?

The term we used to describe the study of alternative futures is important. Disciplines and discourses do not emerge from a vacuum but have a history and a cultural context; and their names can hide as much as they reveal. This paper examines such terms as ‘futurology’ and ‘foresight’, and argues that to emphasise plurality and diversity the study of the future is best served by the moniker ‘futures studies’. It suggests that remembering the history of futures discourse is necessary to resolve the crisis of identity and meaning, and frequent fruitless reinvention, of the field. Finally, it presents Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).     

Is there a postnormal time? From the illusion of normality to the design for a new normality

Ziauddin Sardar's characterization of ‘postnormal times’ elegantly captures the mood of despair, uncertainty and insecurity in the West due to the multiple shocks of terrorism, economic recession and climate change. However, the prevailing mood in India, most of Asia and developing countries in general is confidence and optimism for the future. The label ‘postnormal times’ is inappropriate for resurgent Asia and other ‘emerging markets’. Similarly, these countries - as illustrated by examples from India - need more modernization and efficiency to save and improve the lives of their citizens. This paper argues that the seeming normality of twentieth century in the West was an illusion arising out of the ignorance and neglect of environmental and health consequences of unbridled industrial growth. The distorted assumptions of neoclassical economics are largely to blame for this. It is now time to pay back for those excesses. A new normality will emerge only by addressing these distortions and by creating democratic global institutions that can reflect the changed global balance of power of the 21st century. The intellectuals, opinion-makers and leaders of the world have to exercise their ethical responsibility and creative imagination to enable this new normality to emerge.     

Cost And Management Accounting Practices

In a discussion of some strange results in two surveys of cost accounting practices, it is suggested that the results were probably due to a lack of knowledge on the part of the managers who completed the questionnaires.     

人民币国际化与国际收支失衡的“怪圈”：理论与实证

随着人民币国际化进程的加快,我国国际收支失衡呈加剧之势．且对人民币国际化形成了一定的阻碍,从而形成了“人民币国际化——国际收支失衡”怪圈。出现这个怪圈的影响因素有多种,包括我国经济内外部失衡严重及外部平衡与人民币国际化战略不协调,出口导向发展战略及利用外资发展战略．人民币国际化程度低也是造成这个怪圈的原因。对此,优化国际收支结构;增强人民币国际可接受性,提高人民币国际化程度：改变出口导向战略和利用外资发展战略,增加进口,并鼓励企业用人民币加大对海外的投资,让企业真正“走出去”;通过建立人民币离岸中心,解决人民币回流问题。     

当冰酒成为一种潮流和习惯

冰酒,对于中国人多少有些陌生,但是,冰酒以其独特的魅力还是在中国的时尚人群中流行起来,并逐渐成为一种潮流和习惯。     

The future sign and its three dimensions

The topic of weak signals has raised its interest especially in Finland in recent years. Weak signals are current oddities, strange issues that are thought to be in key position in anticipating future changes in organizational environments. Scanning for them and using them in scenario work is thought to be successful for looking to the future. However, defining weak signals is problematic, and various authors term the concept differently. The debate about the characteristics of weak signals has been active especially in Finland. The article aims to develop a deeper theoretical understanding of weak signals. For this purpose, a semiotic approach, Peirce's triadic model of sign in particular, is used. The article introduces a new starting point for defining weak signals (signs) by using the novel concept future sign, which consists of three dimensions: the signal, the issue and the interpretation.     

Progress, nature and technology in late-modern transition

New experiences and observations, strange enough to awaken our attention, are emerging and accumulating in our time. They range from societal tremors and spreading poverty to the formation of a global world economy, and from economic and political crises and changes of earthly conditions of life to the fast development of technology. Researchers and philosophers in almost every field of study are talking about the present time as a transition between two eras, or as a major shift of our worldviews and basic ideas.     

Self-reflexive challenges of integrative futures

Contrasts the approach to “futures” characteristic of Ken Wilber, and Integral Futures, with the approach taken by David Lorimer, and the Scientific and Medical Network. The differences between these approaches, for any integrative understanding of futures, are presented as arising from stylistic preferences and biases which are usefully highlighted with a range of metaphors. These however highlight the challenge of any more integrative understanding, especially in the light of hidden dynamics of exclusion in a questionable effort to demonstrate that one approach is “better” than another in a complex human endeavour—especially when the future is sensed strategically through other metaphors than “vision”. Consideration is given to the possible use of a pattern language to address such issues, especially given questions regarding the adequacy of text on a conventional surface to hold complex significance and interrelationships. It is concluded that integrative futures is then the strange quest for how cognitively to embody the extremes represented by Wilber and Lorimer in the present—to evoke the greater harmony through engaging creatively with the dissonant pattern of imperfections.     

Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming

I use one nationally representative sample from CBS News/New York Times Poll on Environment (2007), supplemented with monthly temperature and precipitation data from the United States Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center, to examine how different weather measures and individuals’ socio-demographic background, political predisposition, and beliefs about global warming affect the perception of local weather. Beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past. This finding conforms to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition. Among all the weather measures, the total number of extreme weather events in the past three years appears to be the only significant indicator of perceived weather. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. I further examine how actual weather and perceived weather together affect perceptions of global warming. The results illustrate that the perception of local weather has stronger explanatory power than actual weather. People who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming. Future studies are needed to investigate the dynamic relationship between perceptions of global warming and perceptions of weather and climate. In addition, more studies are needed to further examine how the public forms their opinions toward various specific types of the local weather and climate.     

Land, conflict, identity in India’s north-east: negotiating the future

Even a peripheral examination of major conflicts across the world reveals that these revolve around one critical natural resource: land. Whether in the Middle East, Ireland or closer home in Jammu and Kashmir, the battle is between those who believe in a boundary authorized by a particular political dispensation and those who believe that their ethnic and sub-nationalistic or nationalistic claims surpass such barriers. The North East of India, that little wedge of land protruding above Bangladesh, jutting into and flanked by Tibet/China, Myanmar and Bhutan, is a fascinating example of how mindsets and attitudes combined with intensely competitive and unbending views of history and geography make ethnic and demographic problems extremely difficult to resolve. Patronage by the Central Government, which is resented, and the physical and emotional distance from the mainland have combined to produce a strange psyche of dependence, bitterness and alienation in the region. Despite the seeming lack of answers for the future, it is evident that the region has to build on its natural advantage in terms of abundant natural resources. Greater degrees of autonomy with extensive powers to village “republics”, based on tradition, but with a definite change towards gender sensitivity and representation, can show the way forward.     

Strangers in a strange land: Knowing, learning and education for the global knowledge society

Profound changes to established patterns of life, root metaphors, necessary expertise and habits of mind are occurring as a consequence of globalization, information and communications technologies and the shift to a knowledge society. There is now a widening cultural mismatch between what members of the knowledge society need to succeed and what current systems of higher education are geared to offer. Increasingly, the result of this gap is that the products of today's Enlightenment-based socializing systems such as the colleges and universities are ill prepared for the actual challenges of contemporary life, often feeling bewildered and overwhelmed and like “strangers in a strange land.” A paradigmatic revolution in education is needed, but current discussion about reform is couched in the logic of market economics and draws inspiration largely from business strategies such as total quality management. It also remains firmly within the habits of mind and frames of reference of an Industrial Age. To adequately prepare people and communities to thrive in the global knowledge society, revolutionary changes are required in mission, curriculum content, pedagogy and modes of inquiry. The purpose must become explicitly aimed at producing a shift in the deep structures of consciousness and towards the development of transdisciplinary expertise—entirely new literacies and new approaches to learning that both fit the current economic realities and are more attuned to the socio-cultural, psychological and spiritual needs of an emerging global knowledge society.     

Theory and practice in transformation: The disowned futures of Integral extension

The strength of futures studies is its epistemological pluralism. Integral futures as defined by Slaughter and Riedy loses sight of this strength. Instead of an interpretive dialogue, the “Integral Extension” seeks to frame and define causal layered analysis (CLA) within its own terms. Its proponents do so by constructing their version of Integral as above—more evolved, higher, more… and CLA as lower. Integral, in Riedy and Slaughter's terms, appears to inhabit the totalizing linear modernist paradigm, not to mention the straightjacket of the masculinist discourse. Their strategy is the classic defining of the other within the terms of the person who seeks to define. Riedy's piece in particular makes a strange series of errors in that it: (1) confuses Vedanta with Tantra; (2) misreads subjectivity—arguing that subjectivity does not exist for the poststructural, instead of seeing how the self is contextualized with structure and genealogy (as in Foucault's work); (3) misses the entire work around inner CLA; (4) adopts the Orientalist discourse of constructing CLA as cultural (instead of recognizing that it seeks to move up and down layers of data, systems, worldviews and myths), and (5) is not grounded in the practice of conducting layered analysis with varied groups. This essay concludes by arguing that there is no need for this battle. We do not need to be either for or against Integral or CLA. We can live in multiple spaces, use different theories and methodologies, each having its purpose, each useful depending on the person, time and particular space we inhabit.     

Statistical signatures in times of panic: markets as a self-organizing system

We study properties of the cross-sectional distribution of returns. A significant anti-correlation between dispersion and cross-sectional kurtosis is found such that dispersion is high but kurtosis is low in panic times, and the opposite in normal times. The co-movement of stock returns also increases in panic times. We define a simple statistic s, the normalized sum of signs of returns on a given day, to capture the degree of correlation in the system. s can be seen as the order parameter of the system because if s?=?0 there is no correlation (a disordered state), whereas for s?≠?0 there is correlation among stocks (an ordered state). We make an analogy to non-equilibrium phase transitions and hypothesize that financial markets undergo self-organization when the external volatility perception rises above some critical value. Indeed, the distribution of s is unimodal in normal times, shifting to bimodal in times of panic. This is consistent with a second-order phase transition. Simulations of a joint stochastic process for stocks use a multi-timescale process in the temporal direction and an equation for the order parameter s for the dynamics of the cross-sectional correlation. Numerical results show good qualitative agreement with the stylized facts of real data, in both normal and panic times.     

CEO investment of deferred compensation plans and firm performance

We study how US chief executive officers (CEOs) invest their deferred compensation plans depending on the firm's profitability. By looking at the correlation between the CEO's return on these plans and the firm's stock return, we show that deferred compensation is to a large extent invested in the company equity in good times and divested from it in bad times. The divestment from company equity in bad times arguably reflects CEOs' incentive to abandon the firm and to invest in alternative instruments to preserve the value of their deferred compensation plans. This result suggests that the incentive alignment effects of deferred compensation crucially depend on the firm's health status.     

Rare event risk and emerging market debt with heterogeneous beliefs

In a setting where the lender and the borrower have heterogeneous beliefs about the likelihood of a disastrous shock to the borrower's economy, we study the debt contract that defaults at the occurrence of that shock, as proposed by Barro (2006). We find that a higher belief by the lender compared to the borrower can lead to countercyclical interest rates and credit spreads in non-default times, and to an increase in the borrower's indebtedness in default times, as often observed in emerging market economies. When calibrating the model to prices in the credit default swap market, we show that heterogeneous beliefs can account for more than 40% of the variation in CDS spreads associated with shocks to the borrower's economy in non-default times.     

Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected returns

Recent explanations of aggregate stock market fluctuations suggest that countercyclical stock market volatility is consistent with rational asset evaluations. In this paper, I develop a framework to study the causes of countercyclical stock market volatility. I find that countercyclical risk premia do not imply countercyclical return volatility. Instead, countercyclical stock volatility occurs if risk premia increase more in bad times than they decrease in good times, thereby inducing price–dividend ratios to fluctuate more in bad times than in good. The business cycle asymmetry in the investors’ attitude toward discounting future cash flows plays a novel and critical role in many rational explanations of asset price fluctuations.