Finally: A withering away of cities?

Forecasters and science fiction writers have long predicted the demise of the city. It is argued that, with the cost of telecommunication likely to fall to near zero, one of the main reasons for agglomeration in cities will disappear and that the result will be a withering away of cities. This essay considers the likelihood of revolutionary change in the urban landscape and the implications for research by urban scholars.     

Creating narrative scenarios: Science fiction prototyping at Emerge

Scenarios are stories. In the diverse field of scenario planning, this is perhaps the single point of universal agreement. Yet if scenarios are stories, their literary qualities are often underdeveloped. Scenarios used in business and government frequently do not contain a relatable protagonist, move a plot toward resolution, or compellingly use metaphor, imagery, or other emotionally persuasive techniques of literature. In these cases, narrative is relegated to an adjunct role of summarizing the final results of the workshop. While this neglect of narrative may be reasonable in some contexts, the power of narrative should not be underestimated. Scenario planning methodologies can benefit from using diverse narrative techniques to craft compelling and infectious visions of the future. This article explores the relationship between science fiction and scenarios as story genres and investigates a creative story-telling technique, “Science Fiction Prototyping” (Johnson, 2011). While the method is promising, it is an ultimately problematic means to incorporating narrative into scenario planning.     

High-speed railway opening and urban green productivity in the post-COVID-19: Evidence from green finance

In an era during which the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread, high-speed railway (HSR), as one of the key influencers of urban green development, has a significant impact on urban green finance and green productivity. This paper uses HSR as a quasi-natural experiment to study the effect of HSR openings on green productivity in Chinese cities. The empirical results show that, first, the opening of HSR is conducive to the sustained improvement of green productivity in Chinese cities. Second, the opening of HSR makes a significant contribution to the improvement of green productivity in large-scale cities as well as cities in the east and central regions. Third, the opening of HSR can positively impact urban green productivity through the mechanism of green finance development. However, this positive impact tends to first increase and then decrease over time. As the relationship between “finance” and “environment,” green finance has an important impact on the green development of cities. These findings will provide positive and useful references for cities to formulate reasonable green development plans in the post-COVID-19 era.     

Airport futures: Towards a critique of the aerotropolis model

It is predicted that the twenty-first century will be dominated by air transport, both for domestic and international carriage of passengers and cargo. Thus the airport, as a driver of regional growth, is expected to become more than merely a regional gateway. Rather, it will function as city in itself, with living spaces for workers and their families, factories relying on airborne inputs and service industries located around the airport, with major road and rail infrastructure connected to it. However, the ‘aerotropolis’, as this hub for industry and driver of economic development has been called, has not yet been critiqued adequately, especially from a long-term public policy and planning perspective. This article raises concerns about three different dimensions to the aerotropolis regarding its long-term sustainability, viz., energy provision, the security of critical infrastructure and export pathways. In particular, this article argues that air transport will not replace existing components of international economic development. The authors contend that the three dimensions need to be explored in order to arrive at a more balanced view of the aerotropolis and its place in an increasingly complex global future.     

Imagineering city futures: The use of prospective through scenarios in urban planning

This article, based on empirical work by the authors over the past decade, argues that city planners and policy-makers lack an effective future-oriented approach enabling them to comprehend current complexity, anticipate impending change and shape a preferred future condition.Reflecting on more than a dozen recent city futures exercises, three overriding themes emerge: changing values systems will be the single biggest driver over the next thirty years; the forging of shared visions is a prerequisite to strategic city planning; and the nature, force and direction of the various vectors of collaborative leadership by constituent stakeholders will determine the future success or otherwise of city stewardship.The article concludes by calling for the formulation of a Unified Theory for Sustainable Cities by reference to Gaia and the application of a futures oriented approach such as Prospective Through Scenarios.     

房价、城市规模与工资性收入差距——基于中国32个大中城市面板数据的实证检验

基于中国32个大中城市面板数据,拓展Matlack和Vigdor的模型,考量房价、城市规模与工资性收入差距之间的关系。结果表明：房价上涨会引起以基尼系数衡量的工资性收入差距缩小,但当城市规模处于较大水平时,房价上涨又会拉大工资性收入差距;城市规模扩大会显著缩小工资性收入差距,但当城市房价已处于较高水平时,城市规模的继续扩张则会拉大工资性收入差距。     

The New Narrative: Applying narratology to the shaping of futures outputs

Both scenario development and design practices incorporate elements of storytelling, but this use remains undertheorised. This paper will draw upon literary theory, film theory and science fiction criticism to develop an analytical model of narrative structure and rhetorics which speaks to the concerns of scenario developers and designers when engaged in shaping the final outputs or deliverables of a futures project.After highlighting the differing role of telos in art and futures and defining the metacategory of “narratives of futurity”, this paper then defines the terms “story”, “narrative”, “narrator” and “world” in the literary context. It then shows how those concepts map onto futures practice, before going into detail regarding the variety of narrative strategies available across a range of different forms and media, and the qualitative effects that they can reproduce in audiences. There follows the construction of a 2 × 2 matrix based on the critical concepts of narrative mode and narrative logic, within which narratives of futurity might be usefully catalogued and compared, and from which certain broad conclusions may be reached as regards the relation between choice of medium and rhetorical effect. The implications of this analysis are explored in detail.     

Cities and environment in the twenty-first century: A future-oriented synthesis after Habitat II

A gigantic urban revolution is under way today: in 40 years, the equivalent of 1000 cities, each of three million inhabitants, will have to be built. In 2005, half of the world's population will live in cities. This growth will be concentrated in major cities, most of them in the South. This article reviews some fundamental trends, challenges and possible solutions in environment-related fields such as water, transports, energy. It argues for the emergence of a new urban culture based on the adoption of sustainable urban consumption patterns, new urban partnerships and the strengthening of urban solidarities. It gives examples of practical solutions within our reach for humanizing cities in the 21st century.     

Energy and habitat: Designing a sustainable urban ecosystem

As the world's cities grow so new ways of satisfying their demands for food and fuel resources will have to be found, especially in the third world where total fuel demands are expected to expand several fold in one generation. An ecological model for a future complex urban community is presented to illustrate the place of energy in a growing system and how habitat—the physical component—possesses life cycles interdependent with living species. Recycling, biomass fuels, telecommunications, marine living and the propagation of viable organizations are all elements that will enable the globe to sustain future expanding metropolises.     

1948 and not nineteen eighty-four

This article marks the return of I.F. Clarke to the pages of Futures. Those readers who have followed Futures since our first number in September 1968 will recall his long-running series on the development of futuristic fiction and the coming of modern forecasting techniques. He likes to be known as the oldest inhabitant of Futures so far. Professor Clarke was once described, with some accuracy, as ‘Mr Future’ by a Glasgow newspaper. The style recognized the work he has done in the investigation of the many ways in which our ideas about the future have evolved and have found expression in science fiction, imaginary wars, ideal states, Orwellian nightmares and in the proliferation of futurological studies that have swept the world since Ossip K. Flechtheim coined the term futurologist in 1943. This specially commissioned article on Orwell's true place in futures studies serves as an hors d'oeuvre to a new series in Futures by Professor Clarke: “An almanac of anticipations” will begin in the next issue.     

New technology and the urban environment

Technology has always had an influence on the form of settlements, but only since the coming of Information Technology has it aroused much interest from academics and planners. The impact that IT is likely to have on urban areas is debated, some foreseeing decentralisation and the end of place, while others see evidence of the centralisation of control in a global economy. Other new technologies may also affect cities as new materials provide the opportunity for different styles of building. As we enter the 21st century, however, we do so with the largest stock of urban capital ever, much of which is ageing and in need of maintenance. Technology is part of a complex interrelationship of influences on urban areas and much of it will have to be retrofitted on to the pre-existing environment.     

Robots,men and sex tourism

In 2050, Amsterdam's red light district will all be about android prostitutes who are clean of sexual transmitted infections (STIs), not smuggled in from Eastern Europe and forced into slavery, the city council will have direct control over android sex workers controlling prices, hours of operations and sexual services. This paper presents a futuristic scenario about sex tourism, discusses the drivers of change and the implications for the future. The paper pushes plausibility to the limit as boundaries of science fiction and fact become blurred in the ever increasing world of technology, consumption and humanity, a paradigm known as liminality.     

Future cities in a warming world

More than half the global population are already urban, and the UN and other organisations expect this share to rise in future. However, some researchers argue that the future of cities is far from assured. Cities are not only responsible for 70% or more of the world's CO₂ emissions, but because of their dense concentration of physical assets and populations, are also more vulnerable than other areas to climate change. This paper attempts to resolve this controversy by first looking at how cities would fare in a world with average global surface temperatures 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. It then looks at possible responses, either by mitigation or adaptation, to the threat such increases would entail. Regardless of the mix of adaptation and mitigation cities adopt in response to climate change, the paper argues that peak urbanism will occur over the next few decades. This fall in the urban share of global population will be driven by the rise in biophysical hazards in cities if the response is mainly adaptation, and by the declining attraction of cities (and possibly the rising attraction of rural areas) if serious mitigation is implemented.     

Cities and environment in the twenty-first century: A future-oriented synthesis after Habitat II

A gigantic urban revolution is under way today: in 40 years, the equivalent of 1000 cities, each of three million inhabitants, will have to be built. In 2005, half of the world's population will live in cities. This growth will be concentrated in major cities, most of them in the South. This article reviews some fundamental trends, challenges and possible solutions in environment-related fields such as water, transports, energy. It argues for the emergence of a new urban culture based on the adoption of sustainable urban consumption patterns, new urban partnerships and the strengthening of urban solidarities. It gives examples of practical solutions within our reach for humanizing cities in the 21st century.     

Environmental flows: Telecommunications and the dematerialisation of cities?

This paper explores the relationship between telecommunications systems and urban environmental policy. It challenges the powerful, and often taken for granted, assumption that telecommunications improve the environmental performance of cities because the technologies are ‘inherently environmentally benign’ and that they simply ‘substitute’ for travel, inevitably leading towards the dematerialisation of the contemporary city. Instead the paper argues that telecommunications raise serious environmental problems and act as powerful materialisers, particularly as a generator of new demands for travel. It shows that the environmental implications of telecommunications are undoubtedly more complex and contradictory than is often assumed.     

Limited imagination: Depictions of computers in science fiction film

Are speculations about the future ever truly inventive, or are they overly limited by today's reality? Many scholars suggest the latter, and have so for millennia. If this is true, speculations about the future in science fiction film should be closely constrained by today's reality, and truly novel and accurate visions of the future in science fiction must be rare. This paper presents a comparison of how computer technologies have been depicted in popular science fiction films with actual computer technologies that existed when the films were made. The investigation included charting the occurrence of 11 trends in real-world computer technologies and types of computer interaction (e.g., mainframe computers, textual and vector graphic-based interfaces, keyboard and mice) in 10 popular science fiction films spanning four decades (e.g., 2001: A Space Odyssey, Blade Runner, and Minority Report). The investigation revealed that depictions of computers in science fiction films mirror, for the most part, real world trends in computer technology development. The article concludes with a brief discussion of some implications of this finding.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

Transport,energy, and community design

The world's urban areas have a higherper capita consumption of resources than rural areas—and soon they will contain most of the world's population. The planned development of rational cities, within an integrated transport strategy, holds the key to efficient resource use. Energy consumption can be reduced by designing cities with the accent on accessibility rather than mobility. The problems of urbanisation are worldwide, and require an international agency to coordinate the exchange of information and expertise.     

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also—potentially—to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/post-test experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants’ propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals’ perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants’ propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants’ views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.     

高铁时代“双城记”:新兴产业雇员流动的虹吸效应

中心城市引领城市群发展是当前中国区域协调发展战略的关键路径,如何实现城市群内部的产业分工完善和人才市场化配置是构建新发展格局的重要内容。本文以高铁开通为冲击,研究不同规模城市中新兴产业公司雇员流动的虹吸效应。研究发现:高铁开通之后,新兴产业公司的雇员流动因城市大小出现分化,新兴产业公司在大城市更容易获得雇员,而在小城市则更难,表明新兴产业的雇员流动在高铁开通后存在城市群内更为市场化配置的虹吸效应;进一步研究发现,小城市的雇员流出源自高铁开通后更容易获得大城市的就业机会和缓解其高房价压力,但并不受大城市高工资影响;虹吸效应存在空间限制,主要存在于距离大城市2小时高铁圈的小城市内。本文表明以高铁连通为典型的城市群一体化进程对不同规模城市的新兴产业成长具有差异化影响,这不仅对产业分工和劳动力流动的相关研究作出补充,也对因地制宜推进区域间协调发展提供了参考。