New challenges for futures studies

Challenges coming from futures studies to other disciplines because of the rapidity and inter-relatedness of changes for which no discipline on its own can face the different correlated and global challenges, will be examined mainly in relation to social sciences. social sciences on the other hand reflect the need to overcome fragmentation within each discipline and between the various social sciences, in an effort at least of interdisciplinarity to face the growing uncertainty in decision making at every level: local, national and international. Social sciences are also slowly realising that a future oriented perspective is needed to empower analysis and actually reflect society in its continuous dynamicity. Citizens need the possibility to live within the rapidity of changes in the Information Society through the availability of futures studies in different forms as well as social analysis that is dynamic and interdisciplinary. The special link between society and ecological issues in a future oriented perspective will be the specific area to express the relevancy of the correlation between futures studies and social sciences.     

A new method for early detection of mass concern about public health issues

During a public health crisis, risk communication professionals and other risk managers need timely and reliable information about the public reaction as soon as possible in order to effectively carry out their responsibilities. Based on a data-set of microblog news posts, this article presents a method that can forecast to what extent news about a public health issue will be disseminated. The study makes advances in rapidly tracking citizens’ reaction towards public health issues by monitoring news media on microblog sites. The findings show that the proposed method can detect early on the intensity of social reaction on a public health issue as well as provide alert signals. The method can also complement existing risk detection systems and help in the design of other powerful risk analytics tools.     

Aquaculture: an emerging issue for public concern

The present paper reviews the literature on the risks and benefits of aquaculture. By bringing together sources from both natural sciences and social sciences, we provide a synthesis of perspectives on the relatively novel activity of modern aquaculture. This review consists of three parts: first, a background to aquaculture; second, an overview of the scientific risks and benefits; and third, an introduction to the related public perception issues. We establish five main risk‐related areas: human health, environment, organizational, fish welfare, and social issues and utilize these to highlight potential divergences in expert and lay perceptions. Drawing on findings from the risk perception literature, particularly those related to previous food‐related controversies, it is argued that aquaculture incorporates a range of issues, which have already been shown to be a catalyst for public concern. As such, we conclude that, in addition to natural science studies, aquaculture requires a social science approach in order to be able to anticipate and address future controversies in a timely and efficient manner. However, to date, only few articles address aquaculture from a social science perspective, and the present paper is offered as a step in this direction.     

Communicating with the public during health crises: experts' experiences and opinions

Governments and health agencies worldwide are planning for a potential influenza pandemic. Their plans acknowledge the importance of public communication during an outbreak and include related guidelines and strategies. Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication is a new addition to the literature, drawing on health promotion communication, crisis communication and environmental/technological risk communication. This paper adds to the literature, exploring the notion of ‘effective communication during health crises' by reporting on interviews with 22 public health officials, scientists and communications professionals responsible for communicating with the public. When analyzed in the context of the risk communication literature, the interviews reveal several considerations for health risk communicators. First, given the important role that mass media will play in an EID outbreak, there is an urgent need for public health to build partnerships with journalists based on an understanding of the two parties' unique societal roles. Second, seemingly practical communications considerations – such as how certain to be about information before sharing it and whether to engage in two‐way communication with the public – have ethical dimensions that deserve attention. Third, there are unique challenges associated with communicating uncertainty, which would benefit from an exploration of the role of trust in health crisis communication.     

New development: COVID-19 as an accelerator of digital transformation in public service delivery

ABSTRACT

In an unexpected circumstance, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, public service delivery cannot be suspended, but must be delivered online, relying on the available digital technology. Social media, specifically, have been widely used to reach a broader portion of the population. This article discusses the digital acceleration that governments and organizations are now facing. The focus is on Italian state museums, which have been pushed for years to adopt digital tools to increase participation. This article highlights three main dilemmas in service delivery: user engagement; planning and control; and costs. The three dilemmas show the social and organizational challenges connected to digital transformation, underlining the issues that organizations will have to face in the future and not just in an emergency such as COVID-19.     

Innovation, public choice and public control in the market for health insurance.

Innovation, public choice and public control in the market for health insurance/benefits in the United States are largely dependent upon the ability of the various stakeholders to successfully argue their positions with legislators, regulators, providers, purchasers and third party beneficiaries. Given the public/private nature of health benefits, these relationships are examined in a Stigler/Posner/Peltzman public choice framework. Conflicts among various stakeholders and their ability to influence innovation in the market for health benefits are discussed.     

The theory and practice of performance measurement

This paper builds on principles and techniques developed in measurement science, as currently understood in physical sciences and engineering, to improve the theory and practice of performance measurement. To do so, it firstly discusses three fundamental positions on measurement, characterized as metaphysical, anti-metaphysical and relativistic. Subsequently, it lays the foundations of a pragmatic epistemology of measurement in both physical and social sciences. Finally, these insights are integrated through the examination of possible advances in both the theory and practice of performance measurement in organizations.     

Why is research on management accounting change not explicitly evolutionary? Taking the next step in the conceptualisation of management accounting change

In this article we discuss the evolutionary foundation of the OIE-guided management accounting change research building on the framework of [Scapens R.W. 1994. Never mind the gap: towards an institutional perspective on management accounting practice. Management Accounting Research, 5, 301–321.] and [Burns, J. and Scapens, R.W., 2000. Conceptualizing management accounting change: an institutional framework. Management Accounting Research, 11, 3–25.]. We argue that research on management accounting change should be based on evolutionary theory, but that the full potential of evolutionary theory has not yet been described or used in management accounting research. The conceptualisation and understanding of management accounting change can be improved and expanded if the evolutionary approach is developed beyond the general belief that it describes only small and gradual, often slow, changes. In this article we show that an evolutionary perspective on management accounting change implies that management accounting’s development is explained as the interaction between the evolutionary sub processes of retention (inheritance), variation and selection. Thus, both continuity and change are seen as evolutionary outcomes. These processes follow the cumulative causality that Charles Darwin proposed and Thorstein Veblen applied to the social sciences. Such a comprehensive theory, here labelled Universal Darwinism, must, however, be given substance with supporting details.     

论公共卫生最优支出策略

公共卫生支出具有极强的正外部性.如果由地方政府或私人选择公共卫生支出的水平,那么他们的最优选择是较低的公共卫生支出和较高的个人消费(内含个人医疗支出),整个社会的福利将会处于较低的水平状态.本文在一个动态的框架下分析了发生这种现象的经济学原因,说明中央政府而非地方政府或私人应该对公共卫生的建设承担更大的责任,应由中央政府负责全国公共卫生体系的建设.     

'New security' risks and public educating: the significance of recent evolutionary brain science

The response to 'new security' risks requires significant changes in public behaviour, and the legitimization of unpopular government policies. Public Educating (public information/public education) is one means to achieve this. The need is reflected in initiatives such as environmental education, development education, health promotion, and the Public Understanding of Science. Current strategies are often based on commercial advertising, but mass communications theory does not directly encompass influencing perception , which is necessary to create awareness of the new 'invisible' risks. Recent evolutionary brain science is providing fresh and relevant insights into our species perception deficits, which can inform a more effective approach to Public Educating. This paper first places risk within the context of the post-Cold War 'global security' agenda. It proposes a theoretical framework - 'brain lag' - to explain perceptual deficits in relation to this agenda, which draws on theories of information, adaptation and denial, and an understanding of the human senses including time-scale-latency. Fundamental areas of evolutionary perception are proposed which are relevant across the agenda: fear and disgust, number perception, and cheating. This leads to a core concept for Public Educating about new security risks, 'enhanced difference', and a set of hypotheses that can be applied to text or image.     

Toward a 21st Century Social Contract

This article makes the case for a new contract between business and government that will help us address the critical challenge of our time: the globalization of commerce, and its disruptive effects on labor, local communities, and the environment. The authors begin by showing how globalization has created a new playing field for government and business in which our current governance models and a social contract that proved remarkably effective during the 20th century can no longer ensure economic stability and social progress. While the private sector has for the most part demonstrated its ability to adapt and flourish in a global economy, governments have struggled, thanks in large part to complex decision‐making processes and centralized bureaucracies that were created in response to 20th‐century realities. The result has been ever more indebted nations and governments that have been unable to maintain the core foundation and social investments on which their economic competitiveness and the social well‐being of their citizens depend. Our challenge now is to create a new social contract between business and government that is equal to the challenges of a global economy. The authors identify a number of key issues that must be addressed in creating this new framework, and explore recent and emerging business leadership initiatives that are working to address them. These range from initiatives that encourage greater self‐regulation by business of its impact on society and the environment to those that explore ways for the private sector to help governments deliver services more cost effectively. As part of the fallout from the recent financial crisis, business, broadly speaking, no longer enjoys the level of public trust it once did, which has added significantly to the challenges it now faces in taking on greater social responsibility. To direct its considerable resources to the greater public good while continuing to produce a competitive return to shareholders will require a degree of innovation and leadership that many companies will find difficult. But without this increased participation of business and its leaders, it is hard to see how we will prosper in the increasingly uncertain future we now face.     

What determines debt structure in emerging markets: Transaction costs or public monitoring?

We examine the predilection for private bonds over bank financing (debt structure) for emerging markets within the frameworks of both transaction cost economics and a transparency explanation, emphasizing the distinction between public monitoring (bonds) and private monitoring (banks), as well as considering the influence of national culture on institutions. Employing several tests, including structural equation modeling, we find, among many results that in emerging markets bonds are preferred over bank loans when there is less corporate opacity and fewer foreign access restrictions, as well as in environment of greater political instability, transaction cost, and limits to legal protection. Bonds are also favored over banks in cultural environments of greater uncertainty avoidance, masculinity, long-term orientation, and indulgence and less individualism. Overall, we attribute our results to culture and institutional quality together influencing debt structure, particularly by impacting attitudes toward public monitoring. Our results will be of great interest to researchers interested in the legal, social, and cultural environments of emerging markets.     

Reconstructing “behavioural accounting”

This paper adopts a critical stance towards behavioural accounting research methodology. It is argued that most accountants have based their behavioural research on the natural scientific approach, a paradigm whose relevance and suitability for conducting social research has been increasingly questioned in recent years. The author discusses some alternatives to the positivistic research methodology of the natural sciences as a way of developing social science and the implications these have for providing a coherent theoretical and methodological perspective for future “behavioural accounting” research.It is the contention of this paper that the study of the behavioural aspects of accounting has largely failed to develop into a coherent theoretical or practical body of knowledge. In an attempt to overcome this state of affairs, there is an increasing trend to employ organizational and sociological theory as a basis for research, as opposed to psychology and social psychology which informed earlier conceptual thinking and research. While accountants may see this conceptual development as an advancement in that it locates accounting processes in their organizational and social contexts, the way in which it is being conducted is criticized in this paper because, like psychology, it is characterized by an essentially positivistic methodology.This article will first provide a broad overview of the relationship between accounting research and the behavioural sciences. From that overview it will be argued that accounting researchers are unlikely to make much progress by borrowing behavioural scientific concepts unless they develop a deeper understanding of the philosophical underpinnings of these concepts and the competing schools of methodological thought which exist within the behavioural sciences. In an attempt to fill this apparent gap in understanding, the paper will discuss the scientific approach of the natural sciences, why it is felt to be inappropriate for the behavioural sciences and what alternatives exist.     

Gender effects and labor supply in public accounting: An agenda of research issues

Considerations of gender effects on labor supply issues are significant because of the potential to provide information to employees, firms and society. This paper presents a research agenda regarding women as a source of labor in public accounting. The research agenda indentifies issues which have been either uninvestigated or underinvestigated. Studies suggested by the agenda have purposes varying from exploratory to confirmatory, and from social justice and equity to economic. Research design concerns and related theory are provided. The androcentric culture of public accounting, patriarchy, cultural expectations and the dynamics of change are key issues affecting the proposed research.     

Evolutionary analogies and sustainability: Putting a human face on survival

In recent years, analogies taken from the natural world, and from evolutionary theory in particular, have been increasingly applied to problems outside the field of biology. The growing interest in issues of sustainability has not escaped this trend and the application of evolutionary analogies to issues of sustainability is discussed and its benefits outlined. Furthermore, a conceptual tool for addressing issues of sustainability within an evolutionary framework is presented and its main features investigated. There are, however, a number of reasons for caution when adopting any analogy for the purposes of theory development. These points of circumspection are investigated and a number of suggestions are made for enriching the framework to facilitate the application of evolutionary analogies to human-centred and other non-biological systems. This is achieved by recognizing the unique characteristics of human beings and interpreting the component factors of evolutionary theory so as to account for the fundamental differences between humans and other species.     

Capital markets research and real world complexity: The emerging challenge of chaos theory

The theories of chaos and complexity are presented as a wide-ranging new vision of the relationship between order and disorder, a new vision that is challenging many of the fundamental presuppositions of the older Newtonian world view of science. The implications of the new vision are explored in terms of their challenges to the methodological views widely espoused by capital market researchers in accounting, most notably with respect to the assumptions of linearity and predictability. Mandelbrot's early studies of economics and financial time series data, which provided many of the insights for his conception of fractals, are reviewed in terms of their challenges to the conceptual framework of the traditonal capital markets research paradigm and its extension to financial reporting issues. Contemporary studies which are reviving Mandelbrot's challenges are also reviewed, with the conclusion that they are weakening the intellectual hold of the tradtional capital markets paradigm and making it more susceptible to overthrow by a competing paradigm. Finally, an emerging new research program associated with the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) is reviewed. SFI researchers are studying financial markets as complex adaptive systems. Their preliminary findings are incompatible with the widely presumed theoretical linkage between financial reporting systems and economic efficiency, and they tend to undermine the traditonal rationale relating earnings to stock prices.     

Challenges to teaching evolution: What's a head?

This article draws upon the history of challenges to the teaching of evolutionary science in the United States to determine what the future may hold for American evolution education. Scenarios considered include: anti-evolution activists will continue to attempt legal maneuvers to leverage creationism into public science classrooms, creationists will concede to secular instruction in public schools and focus their attentions on informal mis-education, and that the teaching of evolution will improve despite challenges. Also, noting that tactics employed by American creationists are being exported to other countries, international challenges to the teaching of evolution are discussed with special attention paid to potential futures regarding evolutionary science within Islamic cultures.     

Strategy in the public sector

The public sector, including its non‐trading organisations, has to face complex demands and is subject to increasing competition in various forms. Nevertheless, the sector, particularly central government, finds strategy difficult. The findings of the Efficiency Unit's ‘Next Steps’ report provide an added impetus to the development of strategic thinking. The agencies proposed, as well as their sponsoring Departments, will require a strategic framework.     

Adding critical accounting voices to migration studies

The field of migration study is continually evolving and frequently controversial, as diverse people cross the globe and as social and economic transformations prevail. Although scholars in many disciplines have actively contributed to migration research, accounting scholars have been less actively engaged, despite migration's use of concepts so closely aligned with accounting: costs, benefits, risk, and control. This paper considers how accounting researchers may contribute to the study of migration, highlighting the potential for critical researchers to re-define terrains of discourse.Migration theories are introduced, illustrating the complexities and interconnectedness of the role of globalisation, poverty, state functioning, and the social sciences. We integrate previous research of accounting, revealing the discipline as part of the language and neoliberal agenda imbued in migration issues, and its participation in co-creating precarious boundaries and myopic concepts defining the debates. We provide a case analysis, specifically illustrating accounting's calculative practices and rhetoric as limiting and obscuring social issues in migration, providing yet another instance of accounting's participation in social controversies.The rhetoric of accounting as merely a technique and the prevailing view of its objectivity are disputed as we reveal accounting's role in creating a simplifying reality, ignoring the complex interdependencies and powerful forces at play in migration arenas. Although much work is to be done in the accounting field to illuminate its role regarding migration issues, we are optimistic that critical researchers can provide expanded ways of thinking and a contribution to the deliberations. The work's originality is contained in its unique framing of migration discourse, revealing the skewed and shadowy assumptions of its traditional discourse, and examining how critical research expands possibilities for promoting social justice in the migration landscape.