数字经济、异质性技术创新与二氧化碳排放

依托技术创新发挥数字经济的碳减排效应，对中国实现“双碳”目标至关重要。基于2011—2020年中国省级面板数据，实证检验数字经济对二氧化碳排放的影响，并将技术创新分为技术引进、模仿创新与自主创新3种模式，考察异质性技术创新的传导路径。结果表明，数字经济能够显著降低碳排放，但在发展初期会带来碳排放增加，二者呈倒U型门槛特征。机制检验表明，数字经济通过推动自主创新与模仿创新降低碳排放，但技术引进并非有效路径，而且，随着自主创新与模仿创新能力的提升，数字经济的减碳效应愈发显著。进一步研究发现，在综合创新水平、人力资本水平、知识产权保护程度较高的地区，数字经济的减碳作用更强。数字经济时代，应依托技术创新的碳减排优势，加强低碳技术自主创新与模仿改造，充分发挥数字经济的减碳效应。     

交通基础设施建设是否影响了区域创新

基于2000-2018年中国内地省级面板数据，以自主创新和模仿创新两种模式为切入点，构建中介效应模型，实证检验交通基础设施建设对区域创新的影响效应。研究表明：交通基础设施建设显著促进了自主创新，抑制了模仿创新。交通基础设施建设主要通过扩大人力资本积累、促进经济增长、带动产业升级和减轻环境治理负担等路径间接影响区域创新。此外，公路建设对区域创新的影响力远小于铁路建设，西部地区交通基础设施建设对区域创新的影响力远大于东、中部地区。     

企业家技术进步路径选择与经济增长

发达国家的知识和技术进步速度越快,发展中国家越是能收到技术模仿的好处,从而带来较高的经济增长率。越是接近技术前沿的发达国家,创新型企业家的作用越大,离技术前沿越远的发展中国家,模仿型企业家的作用往往更明显。发展中国家的企业家通过知识过滤、吸收、模仿、"干中学",不断积累人力资本和物质资本,为自主创新积蓄力量,最终能实现模仿式创新和自主创新的良性互动。     

论股市与经济增长互动机理

增长是一种复杂的经济现象，新古典增长理论识别了在制度约束下经济体内要素作用的经济增长问题，考察了资本(物质资本与人力资本)积累和技术对经济增长的作用，指出经济增长的核心要素是资本、劳动(人力资本)和技术。但经济增长要素贡献分析表明，在我国，资本贡献率约为60％，远超过劳动等其他要素的经济贡献，并已成为我国近20年来经济快速增长的主要源泉。     

外商直接投资的技术溢出效应、影响因素与我国的政策选择

FDI对东道国的技术溢出存在多种途径，东道国自身吸收能力、当地人力资本存量、当地产品市场竞争环境、东道国企业研发水平、东道国金融市场效率等因素都将对FDI技术溢出效应产生明显影响。因此，提高我国引进FDI的技术溢出效应需要调整我国利用FDI的战略和政策；提升我国人力资本存量水平；改善国内市场竞争环境，优化我国企业自主创新的制度基础；强化知识产权保护制度。     

技术生态演化视角下人力资本推动自主创新机制研究

运用技术生态演化理论构建了人力资本对自主创新的作用机制,从理论上解释了人力资本必须达到一定门槛才能推动自主创新的原因,同时证明了人力资本积累门槛并不是推动自主创新的唯一因素,自主创新的实现是人力资本和技术、政治、经济、社会文化等环境共同作用的结果。最后,通过对中国面板数据的实证分析验证了这一理论,并对中国人力资本推动自主创新中存在的问题提出了相关对策建议。     

技术生态演化视角下人力资本推动自主创新机制研究——基于中国面板数据的实证分析

运用技术生态演化理论构建了人力资本对自主创新的作用机制,从理论上解释了人力资本必须达到一定门槛才能推动自主创新的原因,同时证明了人力资本积累门槛并不是推动自主创新的唯一因素,自主创新的实现是人力资本和技术、政治、经济、社会文化等环境共同作用的结果。最后,通过对中国面板数据的实证分析验证了这一理论,并对中国人力资本推动自主创新中存在的问题提出了相关对策建议。     

国际技术扩散、自主创新与我国高科技企业的技术进步——以国有及国有控股的高科技企业为例的实证研究

本文利用我国国有及国有控股高科技企业行业层面的面板数据,比较分析了国际技术扩散和自主创新对我国国有及国有控股高科技企业技术进步的影响。通过比较研究技术引进、技术模仿和自主创新对我国国有及国有控股高科技企业劳动生产率和经济增长的影响。实证结果表明：自主创新对于我国国有及国有控股高科技企业的劳动生产率和经济增长都有着显著的正面效应;技术引进对我国国有及国有控股高科技企业劳动生产率的提高和企业的经济增长都有着显著的促进作用;技术模仿导致了高科技企业科技开发人员劳动生产率的下降。     

套利行为、技术溢出介质与我国地方产业集群的升级困境与突破

我国地方产业集群内微观企业创新动力的集体缺失与升级动力不足,是与转型背景下集群内模仿--套利行为的普遍盛行至为相关.而这种模仿--套利机制得以实现的关键在于我国地方产业集群内基于人力资本介质流动和产品介质反向工程的特有技术溢出渠道.从实践来看,以人力资本为介质的流转渠道是其主要方式.本文通过构建一个先入企业与跟随企业的两方动态博弈模型,解析了这种模仿--套利机制与人力资本介质流动技术溢出效应的交互作用,以及其对双方企业自主创新动力产生抑制作用的内在机理,指明这种状况下集群微观企业创新动力集体缺失困境形成的必然性.并针对我国地方产业集群内模仿--套利机制的成因进行分解,据此提出扭转这种困境的相应对策.     

技术积累提高了区域创新数量还是创新质量

在创新型国家建设背景下，提高创新质量至关重要。以高技术产业为例，综合采用联立方程模型、面板门槛模型、贝叶斯向量自回归模型，研究技术积累与创新数量、创新质量的关系。研究结果表明：技术积累对创新数量的贡献大于创新质量；创新数量与创新质量间的协调性不高；技术积累对创新数量的贡献中其自身、研发人员、创新质量的门槛效应呈递减趋势；随着创新数量增大，技术积累对创新数量的作用弹性逐步提高；当研发经费处于中等水平时技术积累对创新数量的弹性影响最大，对创新质量具有较强的规模经济效应。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.