Release of a liquidity regulation: What do we learn for credit and house prices?

This paper studies the effects of the release of a limit on banks’ maturity transformation – akin to the Net Stable Funding Ratio – for mortgage supply and house prices. After the regulatory easing, credit supply increased only for the banks that were previously constrained by the regulation and not for the others. We also show that the expansion in mortgages triggered by the deregulation accelerated house prices. The effect was channeled through higher demand for housing and the relaxation of borrowers’ financial constraints. Even though the impact of the credit supply shock persisted, the interaction between credit and house prices was not conducive to a housing market overheating.     

Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007–2009: Lessons for the future

An unsustainable weakening of credit standards induced a US mortgage lending and housing bubble, whose consumption impact was amplified by innovations altering the collateral role of housing. In countries with more stable credit standards, any overshooting of construction and house prices owed more to traditional housing supply and demand factors. Housing collateral effects on consumption also varied, depending on the liquidity of housing wealth. Lessons for the future include recognizing the importance of financial innovation, regulation, housing policies, and global financial imbalances for fueling credit, construction, house price and consumption cycles that vary across countries.     

The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies

We analyse the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Norway, Sweden and the UK, using structural VARs. A solution is proposed to the endogeneity problem of identifying shocks to interest rates and house prices by using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) restrictions. By allowing the interest rate and house prices to react simultaneously to news, we find the role of house prices in the monetary transmission mechanism to increase considerably. In particular, house prices react immediately and strongly to a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, the fall in house prices enhances the negative response in output and consumer price inflation that has traditionally been found in the conventional literature. Moreover, we find that the interest rate responds systematically to a change in house prices. However, the strength and timing of response varies between the countries, suggesting that housing may play a different role in the monetary policy setting.     

Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies

This paper investigates the effectiveness of nine non-interest rate policies on house prices and housing credit using data from 57 economies and periods of up to three decades. We find that introductions or reductions in the maximum debt-service-to-income ratio, and increases in housing-related taxes, have significant negative effects on housing credit, with a typical tightening action lowering the real credit growth rate by 4–6 percentage points and by 3–4 percentage points, respectively, over the subsequent four quarters. Increases in housing-related taxes moderate house price growth, with a typical increase slowing real house price appreciation by 3–4 percentage points over the same horizon.     

货币政策、房价波动对居民消费影响的路径研究

本文研究货币政策、房价波动对消费的直接与间接影响,并确定货币政策与房价对消费影响的两条具体路径。研究表明,我国存在货币政策对消费影响的直接路径,也存在房价通过货币政策影响消费的间接路径。而且,这两种路径对消费的影响具有非线性的时变特征。但是,房价对消费影响的直接效应不存在,货币政策通过房价影响消费的间接效应也不存在。     

信贷配给对货币政策有效性的影响

商业银行在货币政策传导机制中处于枢纽地位,其信贷配给行为的发生,一方面形成了巨额的超额准备金,另一方面造成了信贷市场的分割,其结果降低了货币政策的有效性.这在我国表现为:一方面,商业银行的信贷配给所形成的"惜贷现象"阻断了货币政策向融资企业的传导;另一方面,民营企业难以成为提高货币政策有效性的主体.从而造成了我国货币政策效果较差的后果.解决此问题的根本方法在于降低商业银行贷款风险,缓解信贷配给.具体措施:一是建立商业银行进行信息搜寻的激励机制,二是建立融资企业的融资担保体系,使商业银行的贷款风险得以转嫁.     

What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices.