保险政策与财政政策的关系探讨

财政政策与保险政策的关系是宏观经济政策与微观经济政策的关系,二相互影响,互相作用,保险政策对财政政策的影响主要体现为通过制定实施一系列保险政策措施,改变社会储蓄、消费投资的关系,进而影响财政政策的作用效果。而财政政策中的税收政策,转移支付政策又对保险政策产生直接的影响。     

积极财政政策的回顾与评价

积极财政政策已实施5年有余,是我国50余年来第一次真正以财政政策调控宏观经济运行的稳定政策,必将成为我国宏观经济调控史中的重要一页。因此,现在我们有必要对积极财政政策进行回顾与评价,目的不仅在于肯定积极财政政策在过去5年里对经济复苏作出的贡献,还在于总结积极财政政策的成功经验,以史为鉴。     

逐步推进个税税制改革

个人所得税法修正案(草案)2005年8月23日提交十届全国人大常委会第十七次会议进行首次审议。这将是对个税法的第三次修订,是在由积极财政政策向稳健财政政策转变的新形势下进行的。个人所得税法的修订,一方面要与经济形势,     

试从国际收支角度诠释积极的财政政策

国际收支是一国在一定时期内 (通常一年 )对外经济交往的全部纪录 ,一国国际收支状况通过国际收支平衡表来反映 ,借助国际收支平衡表 ,我们除可发现过去一段时间对外经济交往的结果外 ,也为制定未来对外经济政策提供理论依据。财政政策是一国政府通过调整税率、预算开支来调节经济的政策。按税率、预算开支的水平和变动情况 ,西方经济学中分为扩张的财政政策、适度的财政政策和紧缩的财政政策。财政政策的选择与国际收支状况有密切联系。通常一国国际收支发生持续逆差时采用紧缩的财政政策 ,国际收支发生持续顺差时选择的财政政策 ,国际收支…     

IS-LM模型与我国财政政策的绩效和取向分析

1998年以来，我国连续6年实施积极的财政政策，有力地拉动了经济增长，抑制了通货紧缩趋势；同时又实施了稳健的货币政策，有力地支持了积极财政政策的实施，促进了经济的发展。但是自1998年以来实行的积极财政政策，其内容主要局限于支出方面，即通过举债来扩大公共支出，投资于基础设施等方面，从而扩大内需以带动经济增长。应该说，这种以扩大需求为导向的积极财政政策，其正面效应是主要的，但也不容否认，这种正面效应已出现递减，其作用的空间越来越小。本人认为如果从当前的宏观经济态势和长远的经济增长来考虑问题，这种积极财政政策正面临着需要适时从“积极介入”向“中性调节”的平稳过渡。因此，坚持科学的发展观，实现税制改革与稳健财政政策的相互交融与互动，应该成为未来一定时期内我国财政政策的核心议题。，     

论稳健财政政策的实施与公共财政改革的统一

稳健财政政策是我国在投资过快和通货膨胀压力加大的特定背景下采取的一种中性财政政策,其主要特征是规模适度、规避风险和分配的公平性。而建立与市场经济相适应的公共财政体制,既是转变政府和财政职能的客观需要,又符合现代市场经济的基本特点和内在要求。因此,要增强稳健财政政策的宏观调控功能,必须将其置于公共财政的基本框架下,遵循公共支出的基本原则,合理安排国债资金的投向,努力提高财政支出效率,协调稳健财政政策的实施与公共财政改革的统一。     

财政政策调整对私人部门投资的影响——基于政策需求和供给管理更迭的思考

本文梳理了中国近20余年来财政政策调整及其与私人部门投资之间的内在联系。在应对两次金融危机时,中国实施的积极财政政策以需求管理为主,通过扩大财政赤字、增加政府投资等总量刺激政策改善市场需求拉动企业投资。2011年经济进入增速放缓期后,财政政策逐渐侧重供给管理,但在一定时期仍采用供需两端双管齐下的模式进行调控。除受市场整体需求收缩影响外,中国金融机构存款余额与社会融资规模存量之间差距扩大,以及企业二元产权结构内生出的融资成本分化现象逐步成为制约总量性财政政策效应发挥的关键。2016年后因结构性问题凸显,财政政策偏向以供给管理为主,如实施税收改革、减税降费等政策。在"十四五"这一重要战略机遇期,财税体制改革的发力点仍在于稳定总量与结构调整并行,采取加强政府债务融资管理、进一步调整减税方向、平衡不同所有制企业的投资结构等措施,激发微观主体投资活力。     

对中国宏观经济调控政策的反思与展望

从1998年至今，中国连续六年来积极财政政策的实施，对促进我国的经济发展、政治稳定和社会进步发挥了重要作用。我们在肯定积极财政政策的积极正面效应的同时，又不能不看到，中国近六年来积极财政政策效应的偏差同样是显而易见的。由于单向片面地强调需求调控一方，而忽视了供给调控另一方，仅仅在“市场需求——宏观需求管理”这个圈子内寻找对策，未能将需求刺激与供给推动结合起来对市场进行调控；故宏观经济调控政策效应与预期结果至今相距甚远。积极财政政策与中国实践的悖论运行，迫使人们不得不对政策本身进行反思。     

我国财政货币政策运行的困境

一、积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策启动内需乏力。 1998年积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策在实施中主要以财政政策为主,货币政策为辅,其意在通过财政政策刺激并带动需求,以克服总需求不足,减缓经济增速的下滑。为此,中央政府在近五年里共发行了6600亿元国债,增加基础设施的投资,并带动银行信贷和社会投资,合计投资总规模达26000亿元。据国家统计局测算,四年     

扩张性财政政策:一个好汉三个帮

为了确保我国经济持续快速健康发展,当前和今后一个时期,我国必须实施适度扩张的财政政策。然而,任何经济政策都有其自身的局限性,因此,实施适度扩张的财政政策,确保其目标的最终实现,必须密切与其他各项经济政策尤其是货币政策、外资利用政策和结构调整政策的协调配合。 财政政策与货币政策的协调配合 由于财政政策在实践中存在效率不高、“内部时滞”较长的严重缺陷,加上当前财政政策又面临着财力不足和     

我国财政政策作用机制与经济周期波动的相关性研究

我国积极财政政策在总需求管理过程中起到了重要作用.通过判断我国财政政策工具和财政政策规模与经济周期波动之间的关联,描述结构VAR模型中财政政策的作用和反馈过程,我们发现我国积极财政政策操作过程中体现出了一定程度的相机选择性和对经济周期阶段的依赖性,这意味着在我国经济增长已经出现"软扩张"的经济周期态势下,应当适当调整财政政策的期限结构和政策工具,加强货币政策的组合作用,继续保持积极财政政策对国内产出的作用方向.     

开放条件下我国财政政策转型研究

一段时间以来,我国政府主要是运用相机抉择的财政政策来调控宏观经济的周期性波动.实施这种相机抉择功能的财政政策在带来繁荣的同时,也蕴含着越来越多难以克服的危机,尤其是在中国这样的发展中国家里,过度频繁地利用经济政策来拉动经济增长的效果并不理想,反而会造成投资浪费以及经济的更大波动.因此,应尽早实现财政政策的转型,实行具有自动稳定功能的财政政策.     

Institutional constraints,double imbalances and policy option—global financial crisis and China’s fiscal policy

With the enormous development of China’s economy, we re-implement the proactive fiscal policy not only to response to the global financial crisis, but also to take advantage of the opportunity to resolve the institutional constraints, transform China’s economic growth pattern, keep stability and promote the sustainable growth of the economy. So the goal of fiscal policy should weigh easing the economic crisis against long-term stability and the development of economy. The past experiences of fiscal policy practices in China indicate that the traditional simple counter-cyclical fiscal policy may be able to pull the economy out of recession, but it has little effect on automatic recovery of the economy. Therefore, the fiscal policies need to hang on the entire reform process and the whole economic structure adjustment. This paper firstly reveals the root of “double imbalances” and institutional constraints, then analyzes the paradox between such constraints, and discusses the space of positive fiscal policy.     

Policy mix and debt sustainability: evidence from fiscal policy rules

This paper characterizes rules-based fiscal policy setting for G-3 and large EMS countries. We set up a simple fiscal policy rule and then infer on the policymakers’ reaction coefficients by testing with GMM. Our results qualify existing evidence on systematic fiscal policy in two respects. First, fiscal policy usually stabilizes public debt; and there is indeed substantial interaction between fiscal and monetary policies via the policy mix or the debt channel. Second, sustainability is achieved with a “stop–go” cycle of consolidation. Unless debt ratios are high, consolidation does not come at the cost of less cyclical stabilization.     

我国财政货币政策作用关系实证研究--基于VAR模型的检验分析

文章通过构建一个真实GDP增长率、财政赤字占GDP比重、货币供给M2增长率、零售物价指数变化率等4个变量的VAR模型,对我国财政政策与货币政策相互作用的关系及其动态性进行了实证分析,通过模型设定、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和预测方差分解,发现在我国不存在简单的财政货币政策的互补或替代关系,而是存在一种非对称性的关系,即扩张的货币政策伴随着收缩或稳健的财政政策,而扩张的财政政策导致被动扩张的货币政策,表现形式取决于具体宏观经济环境和经济冲击形式。同时,文章也得到其他一些结论,并认为,要增强政策的效率,必须强化央行的独立性,在现阶段需要严格控制赤字财政政策,以减少其对经济增长和经济波动的影响。     

Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries

In this article, we take account of an evaluation of the short- and medium-term effects of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries and their dependence on the state of the economy and fiscal behaviour. Our findings indicate that (i) across EU member states the impact of government spending on economic performance is larger in the accession than in core member states, (ii) since the onset of the economic/financial crisis the government spending multipliers have become larger in both core and accession EU member states, and (iii) a comparison with fiscal responses in the OECD countries shows robustness of our estimates. The conclusion implies that the austerity measures present a substantial drag for economic activity in accession EU countries. Thus, we may state that not considering the fiscal behaviour and state of the economy gives misleading fiscal multiplier effects, which in turn lead to the adoption of inappropriate fiscal measures that even worsen a country's economic situation.     

Optimal monetary–fiscal policy in the euro area liquidity crisis

We build an euro-area level DSGE model featuring a liquidity shock in the sovereign bonds market to simulate the strong contraction in economic activity observed during the 2008–2009 crisis. In the model, a sudden deterioration of the liquidity property of sovereign bonds is associated with deep recession and deflation. Against this background we characterize optimal monetary and fiscal policy with full commitment. We find that the optimal policy contains three features: (i) the policy rate is lowered until hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) and then is kept at the ZLB for more periods; (ii) a prolonged central bank’s balance-sheet expansion aimed at restoring the liquidity deteriorated; (iii) a counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus which offsets, to a large extent, the fall in private spending caused by the liquidity shock. Policy regimes involving (i), but not (ii) and (iii), are quite weak in stabilizing output gap and inflation. Monetary policy regimes such as full inflation-targeting or nominal GDP targeting perform remarkably well insofar as they are complemented with an optimally-implemented counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Our results tend to favour the view that, in case of recession, an euro-wide coordinated fiscal policy should supplement the role of the ECB in achieving its primary objective.     

积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异——基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析

本文利用面板数据模型分别考察了积极财政政策对我国东、中、西部私人投资增长和差异的影响.分析表明,积极财政政策对东、中、西部的私人投资具有一定的正向影响,从而证实了积极财政政策的有效性.本文通过地方财政各项支出对私人投资产生的影响分析,表明东、中、西部要根据自身的经济发展水平来安排财政支出的结构.     

Fiscal policy under a minimum‐time objective

In an endogenous growth model, we characterize the fiscal policy driven by a minimum‐time objective of economic development. We find that in equilibrium government should levy the highest possible consumption taxes, reduce public expenditures to the lowest possible level, and keep labor income tax rate and capital income tax rate satisfy a substitution relationship at the balanced budget constraint. We also identify the condition under which income tax rate should be set to zero. We further find that the equilibrium fiscal policy is equivalent to the growth‐maximizing fiscal policy, whereas it generally deviates from the welfare‐maximizing fiscal policy. We hence identify a circumstance where setting the policy goal of reaching an economic‐performance target as soon as possible cannot be justified in the sense of maximizing the welfare of households.     

Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy

Stabilization policy involves joint monetary and fiscal rules. We develop a model enabling us to characterize systematic simple monetary and fiscal policy over the business cycle. We principally focus on the following question. What are the key properties of the joint simple rule governing the conduct of systematic stabilization policy? We find that conducting stabilization policy incorporates not only a set of monetary policy choices governed by the so-called ‘Taylor principle’ but also fiscal policy that gives considerable force to automatic stabilizers. Recent US and UK monetary and fiscal choices seem broadly consistent with this model. This result is found to be robust to a number of alternate modeling strategies.