Japanese fiscal reform: fiscal reconstruction and fiscal policy

This paper evaluates the recent movement of Japanese fiscal reform. We first summarize fiscal policy in 1990s. Then, we investigate several relevant topics of fiscal policy such as the macroeconomic impact of government debt and the sustainability problem. We then consider dynamic properties of fiscal reconstruction process by analyzing the dynamic game among various interest groups. This paper points out that the long-run structural reform is more important than the short-run Keynesian policy in Japan.     

Great recession,exports crunch,and China's fiscal stimulus in a global zero lower bound environment

This paper develops an open economy model and replicates the exports crunch occurred in China during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. We show that in a global zero lower bond (ZLB) environment, fiscal stimulus significantly mitigates the negative effects of exports crunch during the Great Recession. In a global ZLB environment, fiscal stimulus produces more or less the same multiplier as during normal times, which are both greater than one. The state-owned enterprises’ production channel produces a spill-over effect on the private-owned enterprises’ production and amplifies the multiplier effects of fiscal stimulus. Implementation delay enhances the multiplier effects of fiscal stimulus. Compared to normal times, the welfare gain associated with fiscal stimulus in a global ZLB environment increases significantly, whereby implementation delay slightly weakens this welfare enhancement.     

What causes changes in the effects of fiscal policy? A case study of Japan

In the past two decades, the Japanese government has spent a considerable amount of money to counteract the severe recessions that have recurred since the early 1990s. Numerous studies have pointed out that the effects of these expenditures have diminished since around the 1990s. However, none of these studies has statistically explored the reasons for this diminution, which they implicitly or explicitly mention. The purpose of this study is to statistically investigate these reasons, using a threshold vector autoregression (VAR) in which the causes pointed out in the literature are adopted as the threshold. If the null hypothesis that the estimated parameters are equal under each regime is rejected, we can conclude that a given cause does affect the macroeconomic structure and, in turn, the fiscal policy effects. We then estimate the impulse response functions in both sample periods, as constructed on the basis of threshold estimates, and compare the effects of fiscal policy in each period.The following are the main results of the study. First, we found that the diffusion index of the attitudes of financial institutions toward lending and the yearly change in the annual average of the quarterly ratios of the structural primary budget balance to potential GDP significantly reject the null hypothesis; therefore, we concluded that these variables have a definite impact on fiscal expansion effects. Second, the resulting impulse response functions show that the effects are traditional, although there are some notable differences. In particular, when banks’ attitude toward lending is tight and the financial condition of the government is bad, the demand-enhancing effects of government expenditure should be considered weak. In this regard, the traditional accelerator effects of private investment, the existence of liquidity-constrained households, and non-Keynesian effects are key operative concepts.     

Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan

Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier into the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on the expenditure components. Our estimates suggest that there are crowding-in effects of government spending on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 and that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.     

Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan

This study examines how the effectiveness of fiscal policy depends on population aging. To this end, this study estimates the local fiscal multipliers in Japan. Results suggest that the estimated local fiscal multiplier on output is larger in non-aged areas than aged areas, and that the effects on the number of workers are not statistically significant in either area type. Additionally, the multipliers on private investment are only higher than one in non-aged prefectures. Results also indicate that the multiplier generated by an increase in government investment is larger than that in government consumption. These results indicate fewer slack resources in aged areas that can be mobilized in response to increased government spending.     

Sustainability of the fiscal imbalance and public debt under fiscal policy asymmetries in Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the sustainability of Sri Lanka’s fiscal imbalance and public debt. To test for sustainability of the fiscal imbalance, the study applies a symmetric ARDL (autoregressive distributive lag) technique to estimate a government intertemporal budget constraint. And to test for sustainability of public debt, it applies an asymmetric ARDL technique to estimate a fiscal reaction function, which allows for differential responses in the primary budget balance depending on whether shocks to regressors are positive or negative. Annual data for the period 1961–2018 are used in the estimations. The results indicate that Sri Lanka’s fiscal management is inconsistent with strong form sustainability, which requires that expenditures not grow faster than revenues. However, estimation of the fiscal reaction function finds robust evidence for fiscal policy asymmetries. Evidence emerges that Sri Lanka’s fiscal policy stance is procyclical with strong stabilization tendencies in economic expansions that are not sustained in contractions. Against upsurges in the debt-to-GDP ratio, authorities are found to pursue fiscal consolidation, thus suggesting weak form sustainability.     

战后日本的积极财政政策及其启示

战后日本积极的财政政策是长期性的、战略性的，我们从中可以汲取的经验有：增加投资要与技术进步相结合，要突出重点；在审慎使用金融工具的同时，加大使用财政工具的力度；另外，结合我国的实际，在积极培育大型企业集团的同时，应该充分重视小企业的发展。     

财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整的影响——基于CGE模拟分析

在人口红利即将消失之际,我国就业问题呈现较为复杂的趋势。全球性的经济危机促使我国产业结构急需转型。在创新驱动、科教兴国战略和人才强国战略背景下,观察财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整的影响具有重要意义。本文构建了一个在复杂现实背景下分析财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整影响的CGE模型,模拟在人口城镇化过程中财政科教投入分步骤达到发达国家水平时各产业就业和增加值的变化。结果显示:财政科教支出对就业尤其是第三产业就业具有显著正向促进作用,对于住宿和餐饮等劳动密集型产业的影响尤其明显。科教支出有利于解决在城镇化过程中、人口红利期即将结束等现实条件下的就业问题。同时财政科技和教育投入对于促进产业结构转型具有推动作用,加速了向第三产业转型,使得我国的产业结构和就业结构更加合理。     

日本国土综合开发财政政策对中国主体功能区建设的启示

中国国家十二五规划纲要提出要实施主体功能区战略。日本针对经济发展过程中产生区域问题所采取的6次全国国土综合开发规划的财政政策,值得借鉴。中国在推进主体功能区建设过程中,应当运用差别化税收政策引导重点开发区域承接优化开发区域的产业转移,加大对重点开发区域基础设施的投入,发挥财政转移支付制度对地方财力的平衡作用。     

The growth strategy of Abenomics and fiscal consolidation

Using a general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure, this study examines the impacts of a new Abenomics growth strategy on fiscal consolidation in Japan. Our simulation yielded the following results. (i) It is difficult to achieve the government target of fiscal consolidation by the year 2020 even when assuming that the growth strategy has the desired effects. (ii) Moreover, further economic and fiscal reforms are required from 2030 to 2070 because of accelerated population aging. (iii) However, population policy and an extended retirement age contribute to significant improvements in Japan’s fiscal condition after 2070. (iv) In contrast, the promotion of productivity and the labor force participation rate have a lesser impact on fiscal reconstruction.     

调整政府支出结构促进居民消费增长——基于政府支出与居民消费互补性关系的分析

本文主要从政府支出与居民消费的互补性关系出发,提出政府支出结构调整的三个主要方面,即加大农村基础设施的投资、加大教育和健康服务等优效品的支付以及加大社会保障和收入支持的支出,以此促进居民消费快速增长,推动经济增长由主要依靠投资和出口拉动向主要依靠内需特别是消费拉动转变。     

The effects of fiscal policy in the 1990s in Japan: A VAR analysis with event studies

This paper examines the effects of Japanese fiscal policy during the 1990s. A mixed vector autoregression (VAR)/event study approach is used for this purpose. The first empirical finding is that in the late 1990s, the negative effect of fiscal policy was larger and more persistent than the positive effect. This finding suggests that the large fiscal expansions in the late 1990s were inadequate for stimulating the macroeconomy in terms of the size and persistence of their policy effects. The second finding is that the permanent tax cuts implemented in the former part of the 1990s increased consumer durable spending significantly and persistently. This increase may reflect consumers’ incentive to spend before the increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997.     

Dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China: an analysis of productivity growth

This study investigates the dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China through influencing the productivity growth of human capital byapplying Markov switching estimates for the annual time series data of China over the period 1952–2014. Firstly, we found that the Chinese economy exists in two states including state one with low growth and state two with high growth. Secondly, the consumption spending has significantly positive effect both states, while the military spending has only positive effect in state two. Interestingly, the growth effect level of consumption spending in state two is smaller than that in state one, implying a reducing effect of total factor productivity in state two. Thirdly, the combined effects of consumption spending and military spending with human capital are state dependent. This combined effect is reduced in both states, suggesting that government spending does not improve the productivity growth effect of human capital.     

Factor decomposition of sub-provincial fiscal disparities in China

With the help of fiscal statistics on sub-provincial public finances in the second half of the 1990s, this paper explores the hotly debated issues pertaining to fiscal disparities in China during this period, and the various factors driving the changes in fiscal disparities. Among them are economic factors (e.g., GDP per capita, economic structure), and institutional factors (e.g., urban–rural dichotomy, ethnic issues).We adopt Morduch and Sicular's general, regression-based approach to decompose fiscal disparity with respect to per capita fiscal expenditure (Morduch & Sicular, 2002). The empirical results indicate that among all the statistically significant factors, GDP per capita and urban–rural dichotomy are the two most important variables that affects fiscal disparities, with a total contribution of 60%. Other relatively important factors are economic structure and population density. Several features of fiscal expenditure in China identified by our empirical findings together with their corresponding policy implications are discussed.     

The recent deflationary gap in Japan: a quantitative measurement

Undoubtedly, the deflationary gap in the economy of recent Japan is very great. However, the White Paper series of EPAJ (Economic Planning Agency of Japanese Government) in recent years depends on a questionable interpretation of the concept of the gap, so that its analyses have been very misleading. In this paper, the author made up his mind to try to contrive an alternative way for measurement of the deflationary gap. The estimating procedure in the present study is as follows: 1. Computation of aggregate full employment and full utilization indexes of labor force and enterprises’ real fixed capital stock, by the use of original weights and adjusted weights, 2. Experimental-exogenous setting of the δ ratio, i.e., the ratio of the yearly rate of technological progress(%) to the yearly growth rate of real GNP(%) 3. Computation of the indexes of full-capacity GNP corresponding to each δ ratio, 4. Measurement of the deflationary gap. In the light of the computed results, we conclude that the deflationary gap in the recent (1997) Japan would amount to around 30–40% of the potential full-capacity GNP. The excessive breeding of deflationary gap in the Japanese economy was not a cyclical phenomenon but a long-term cumulative trend.     

An Exploration of Asset Returns in a Production Economy with Relative Habits

This paper explores asset returns in a production economy with habit forming households. We show that a model with capital adjustment costs and relative habits is consistent with salient financial facts, such as the equity premium, the market price of risk, and the riskfree interest rate. These predictions are not at odds with good business cycle predictions. In the model, economy investment is strongly procyclical and more volatile than output, which in turn is more volatile than consumption. Moreover, consumption growth is positively autocorrelated and negatively (positively) correlated with future (past) stock returns.

US fiscal policy in a (brief?) era of surpluses

This paper has several objectives. First, it reviews the recent improvement in the US fiscal picture and discusses the sources of this trend. It then considers the implications for the future, taking into account the past performance of budget forecasts as well as the changing composition of the federal budget. Next, it provides some estimates of the long-term fiscal imbalance still faced by the US. Finally, it briefly discusses the various policy options available to address this imbalance, and suggests how the budget measurement and forecasting procedures should be changed to accommodate the current budget situation, in which the long-term problems are not adequately conveyed by short-term measures.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

Fiscal policy and direct crowding-out in a small open economy

This paper analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the ‘pure waste’ case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. In any case, the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption is a key parameter in governing the welfare effects of fiscal policy.

The New Deal at war: alphabet agencies’ expenditure patterns, 1940-1945

While a multitude of New Deal “relief, recovery, and reform” agencies were created in response to the 1930s economic shock, many of these same agencies were subsumed by the Federal Works Agency and played key national defense roles during the 1940s. We examine the wartime expenditure patterns of these agencies, as well as spending on war supply contracts and war-related industrial facilities, to determine whether Depression-era economic goals were addressed during the Second World War. We find that some specific aspects of the New Deal economic agenda were carried out during the war. Furthermore, wartime spending by the alphabet agencies was significantly correlated with the expenditure patterns of those agencies during the 1930s, suggesting that the transition from economic to military objectives may not have been as pointed as the Roosevelt Administration often asserted.