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1.
The economic contribution of information technology: Towards comparative and user studies 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
By what process does technical change in information technology (IT) increase economic welfare? How does this process result
in increases in welfare at different rates in different countries and regions? This paper considers existing literature on
measuring the economic benefits from information technology, emphasizing comparative issues and user studies. Following Bresnahan
and Trajtenberg (1995), we call the invention associated with customizing the technological frontier to the unique needs of
users in particular regions “co-invention”, placing emphasis on understanding how its determinants vary across users in different
regions. We develop a framework for understanding the processes behind value-creation, demand-side heterogeneity and co-inventive
activity. Then we discuss why these processes make measuring the welfare benefits from advances in information technology
particularly difficult. We highlight the metrics currently available for measuring the economic pay-out of the IT revolution
and identify which of these vary meaningfully in a comparative regional context. Finally, we finish with observations about
further areas of research. 相似文献
2.
Should government subsidize R&D and does it matter how these subsidies are allocated? We examine these questions in a dynamic
model where R&D is described as sequential sampling from a distribution of new ideas. Successful discoveries affect future
available resources and incentives for further R&D. Consequently, there may be under-investment in R&D. We study the effect
of government interventions aimed at fostering growth through R&D. Calibrating the model with aggregate data from the Israeli
business sector allows us to quantitatively compare two forms of support resembling those actually used to encourage R&D in
the Israeli business sector: (i) an unrestricted subsidy that may be used at the recipients' discretion to finance R&D or
other investments, (ii) a subsidy earmarked by the government for R&D activities only. While there is no theoretical way to
determine which of the two subsidies will have a greater impact on search for new ideas and growth, we find that in the calibrated
economy both subsidies have a significant but similar impact on the economy's output and TFP growth rates. Accordingly, in
the case of the Israeli business sector, the incentives to conduct R&D were sufficiently strong, and no R&D-specific encouragement
was needed. However, a sensitivity analysis reveals that for economies characterized by other parameter values this result
may not be true.
Correspondence to: B. Bental 相似文献
3.
Maria T. Brouwer 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(1-2):83-105
This paper interprets the discussion on entrepreneurship and economic development that started off with Weber's papers on
the Protestant Ethic. Weber sought the reason for the relatively rapid growth of the Occident in the rational, Calvinist attitude
to life. Calvinism – in his view – exactly suited a society of free labourers, who were not tied to master and soil by extra-economic
considerations as in tribal and feudal societies. Schumpeter gave an alternative explanation, emphasizing the importance of
innovation and entrepreneurship. Knight, who stressed neither rationality nor innovation but uncertainty and perceptiveness
as the sole source of progress and profits, followed up German language writing on this subject. Only the investor who can
detect hitherto hidden qualities in people can gain. The paper demonstrates how these three authors influenced each other.
The debate between these three authors has raised many issues of governance and organization that feature contemporary thinking. 相似文献
4.
Elias L. Khalil 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(4):373-393
Adam Smith's invisible hand metaphor (IH) is examined in light of two different accounts of the origin of traits: Charles
Darwin's theory of evolutionary optimization and William Paley's theory of divine intervention. Smith's stand supersedes both
accounts. For Smith, intermediating drives, such as the sexual one, neither arise accidentally and favored according to their
fitness à la Darwin nor planted by the Deity à la Paley. For Smith, such drives are adopted in light of their ultimate end. Smith did not provide an account of how the drives
are connected to their far-reaching, invisible beneficial ends or why do agents become dimly aware of that causality. 相似文献
5.
Capitalism and democracy in the 21st Century: from the managed to the entrepreneurial economy* 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
This paper explains how and why the developed countries are undergoing a fundamental shift away from a managed economy and
towards an entrepreneurial economy. This shift is shaping the development of western capitalism and has triggered a shift
in government policies away from constraining the freedom of business to contract through regulation, public ownership and
antitrust towards a new set of enabling policies which foster the creation and commercialization of new knowledge. The empirical
evidence from a cross-section of countries over time suggests that those countries that have experienced a greater shift from
the managed to the entrepreneurial economy have had lower levels of unemployment. 相似文献
6.
Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
Previous research has shown that the distribution of profit outcomes from technological innovations is highly skew. This
paper builds upon those detailed findings to ask: what stochastic processes can plausibly be inferred to have generated the
observed distributions? After reviewing the evidence, this paper reports on several stochastic model simulations, including
a pure Gibrat random walk with monthly changes approximating those observed for high-technology startup company stocks and
a more richly specified model blending internal and external market uncertainties. The most highly specified simulations suggest
that the set of profit potentials tapped by innovators is itself skew-distributed and that the number of entrants into innovation
races is more likely to be independent of market size than stochastically dependent upon it. 相似文献
7.
Schumpeter and the revival of evolutionary economics: an appraisal of the literature 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
Jan Fagerberg 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2003,13(2):125-159
During the last two decades we have seen a revival of interest in the works of Joseph Schumpeter and “evolutionary” ideas
in economics more generally. A professional society honouring Schumpeter's name has been founded, and linked to it we have
had for more than fifteen years now a professional journal devoted to this stream of thought. However, it has been argued
that, despite these developments, the link between Schumpeter's own work and the more recent contributions to evolutionary
economics is in fact rather weak. This paper considers this claim. Based on an analysis of Schumpeter's contribution to economics
the paper presents an overview and assessment of the more recent literature in this area. It is argued that although there
are important differences between Schumpeter's work and some of the more recent contributions, there nevertheless remains
a strong common core that clearly distinguishes the evolutionary stream from other approaches (such as, for instance, so-called
“new growth theory”).
RID="*"
ID="*" Many people have contributed to this paper in various ways. Jon Hekland at the Norwegian Research Council started it
all by asking me to make an overview of the contribution from “evolutionary economics” to our understanding of contemporary
economies. Several people helped me on the way by supplying written material, comments and suggestions, and I am indebted
to all of them. Brian Arthur, Stan Metcalfe, Keith Pavitt, Erik Reinert, Paolo Saviotti and Bart Verspagen may be particularly
mentioned. A preliminary version was presented at the conference “Industrial R&D and Innovation Policy Learning – Evolutionary
Perspectives and New Methods for Impact Assessment” organised by the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) at Leangkollen, Asker,
April 18–19.2002. I wish to thank the discussant, Tor Jakob Klette, and the participants at the conference for useful feedback.
Moreover I have benefited from comments and suggestions from the editors and referees of this journal. The final responsibility
is mine, however. Economic support from the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
8.
Since the late 1970s, pharmaceutical R&D has grown at a rapid rate relative to sales and other variables. In this paper,
we examine the determinants of pharmaceutical R&D using a pooled data sample of 11 major drug firms over the period 1974 to
1994. We find that expected returns and cash flows are important explanatory variables of firm research intensities during
this period. This is consistent with our results for an earlier sample period characterized by very different growth patterns
on R&D. 相似文献
9.
This paper suggests a class of stochastic collective learning processes exhibiting very irregular behavior. In particular,
there are multimodal long run distributions. Some of these modes may vanish as the population size increases. This may be
thought of as “bubbles” persistent for a finite range of population sizes but disappearing in the limit. The limit distribution
proves to be a discontinuous function of parameters determining the learning process. This gives rise to another type of “bubbles”:
limit outcomes corresponding to small perturbations of parameters are different. Since an agent's decision rule involves imitation
of the majority choice in a random sample of other members of the population, the resulting collective dynamics exhibit “herding”
or “epidemic” features.
RID="*"
ID="*" We are grateful to two anonymous referees for the comments and suggestions.
Correspondence to: L. Gaio 相似文献
10.
Mark Tomlinson 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1999,9(4):431-451
This paper examines the `learning economy' from the perspective of occupational characteristics and changes in the British
labour market between 1980 and 1992. Following a discussion of the learning and knowledge economy, cross-sectional employment
data are analysed to ascertain which occupations can be classified as knowledge-based. Longitudinal career history data are
then used to trace the flows of these `knowledge workers' over time. Sectoral shifts are examined, with a particular focus
on the knowledge-intensive service sectors. The data come from the Employment in Britain survey: a large-scale employee survey from 1992. The approach used allows us to measure somewhat intangible aspects of economic
behaviour such as learning and tacit knowledge and attempt to trace their flows. Shifts in knowledge from the manufacturing
to the service sector are shown to be important and related to previous work which demonstrated the importance of knowledge
intensive business services for both output and productivity in manufacturing. 相似文献
11.
M. Fuat Şener 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(5):557-583
This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of equilibrium unemployment by combining an endogenous growth model with
a variant of equilibrium search theory. The analysis offers two explanations for the causes of widening wage gap between skilled
and less-skilled labor, and rising unemployment rate among the less skilled: technological change in the form of an increase
in the size of innovations or skilled labor saving technological change in R&D activity.
In addition, the model identifies two distinct effects of faster technological progress on the aggregate unemployment rate.
First, it increases the rate of labor turnover and therefore increases the aggregate unemployment rate – the creative destruction
effect. Second, it creates R&D jobs, which offer workers complete job security, and consequently reduces the aggregate unemployment
rate – the resource reallocation effect. 相似文献
12.
Harry Bloch 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(3):343-353
This paper compares and contrasts the contributions of Joseph Alois Schumpeter and Josef Steindl to the competitive paradigm.
Both reject the static nature of traditional profit maximizing analysis and the analytical device of a representative firm.
Instead they both opt for a dynamic framework in which there is a key role for innovation. Differences emerge in terms of
the characteristics of individual firms that nurture the competitive struggle and are responsible for technical change.
The maturation process of a capitalist economy, whereby a natural progression will involve an increase in concentration, as
prescribed by Schumpeter and Steindl is also explored, as is criticism of their analyses. Finally the holistic approach to
competitive modelling, a legacy of these two economists, is expounded and challenges for the future identified. 相似文献
13.
J.S. Metcalfe 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(1-2):3-15
The central theme of this address is the complicated relationship between the growth of the economy and the growth of knowledge.
This theme is explored with the help of a single concept “restless capitalism” which is used to capture the idea that capitalism
in equilibrium is a contradiction in terms precisely because the growth of knowledge cannot be meaningfully formulated as
the outcome of a constellation of equilibrating forces. This theme is explored through a discussion of growth accounting,
the relationship between innovation, markets and institutions and, as an example, the development of innovation in the field
of ophthalmology. We also discuss some pioneering contributions made by Simon Kuznets and Arthur Burns to the discussion of
evolutionary growth. From this Schumpeterian perspective we see the economy as an ensemble not an aggregate entity and so
see more clearly the importance of microdiversity in the relationship between growth of knowledge and growth of the economy. 相似文献
14.
Peter Bernholz 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(1-2):3-16
Starting from a discussion of Schumpeter's analysis of the relationships of capitalism, socialism and democracy, it is shown
that, in a complex society, democracy is only compatible with a decentralized market economy with safe property rights. But
in time democracy shows a tendency to weaken the capitalist system by more and more regulations and an ever-increasing share
of government (including the social security system) in GDP. This tendency is a consequence of political competition because
of the development of interest groups and the presence of rationally uninformed voters. It leads to a weakening of efficiency,
investment, innovation and thus to lower growth rates of GDP. But in time forces opposing this development arise. First, because
of the negative consequences of growing government the welfare and regulatory state is bound to move into a crisis in the
long run. Thus innovative politicians have a chance to win the support of a majority of voters for reform projects, who perceive
finally the ever-increasing burden of higher taxes and regulations and realize that these burdens are not worth the benefits
bestowed on them. In doing so, they may face, however, the competition of ideologies. Second, there are other states with
lower taxes and less unnecessary regulations which show higher growth rates of GDP, and gain thus relative advantages in international
political and military competition since they can command greater resources with the passage of time. To maintain their relative
international power position, reforms are thus considered as necessary by rulers. This may be helped by pressure resulting
from comparisons of the standards of living done by their citizens. 相似文献
15.
Ben Cooper 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(4):395-413
One way of thinking about research and development is to recognise that firms are trying to solve particular design problems. We often build these design problems into our models, but are forced to oversimplify them in order to make the models solvable.
The approach taken in this paper is to acknowledge that design problems are often insoluble using standard techniques and
to model instead the process by which firms solve them. Two such processes are simulated in detail. The first, individual experimental search, is based
on a problem-solving technique known as simulated annealing. The second, partial imitation, involves learning at a social level and is based on a problem-solving technique known as
the genetic algorithm. Some economic implications of these processes are explored, including their application to stochastic learning curves, patent
design and the importance of `technodiversity' in the introduction of new technology to developing countries. 相似文献
16.
Knowledge and markets 总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3
Jason Potts 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2001,11(4):413-431
An economy is a coordinated system of distributed knowledge. Economic evolution occurs as knowledge grows and the structure
of the system changes. This paper is about the role of markets in this process. Traditionally, the theory of markets has not
been a central feature of evolutionary economics. This seems to be due to the orthodox view of markets as information-processing
mechanisms for finding equilibria. But in economic evolution markets are actually knowledge-structuring mechanisms. What then
is the relation between knowledge, information, markets and mechanisms? I argue that an evolutionary theory of markets, in
the manner of Loasby (1999), requires a clear formulation of these relations. I suggest that a conception of knowledge and
markets in terms of a graphical theory of complex systems furnishes precisely this. 相似文献
17.
Derek Bosworth Silvia Massini Masako Nakayama 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(1-2):135-162
This paper explores the use of time series data to isolate quality change in the Japanese economy using a hedonic procedure.
We argue that the traditional approach to hedonic estimation based upon panel data sets of different brands in a given product
area is extremely resource intensive and, thus, unlikely to be adopted by official statistical bodies outside of key areas,
such as computers. This paper adopts a “top-down” approach to see whether more traditional measures of technical change, such
as patents, can be used to separate pure inflation from quality change. If this is possible, it offers a much simpler route
to estimate the role of quality change in economic growth and performance. In practice, we extend the analysis not only to
include patents, but other forms of intellectual property that might reflect technology and attribute changes, such as designs,
utility models and trademarks. We begin by taking a longer-term historical perspective, exploring the development of indigenous
inventive capacity in Japan during the early years when R&D data are not available. It is possible to show that the rise in
utility models pre-dates the main growth in patenting activity, suggesting the development in more low-level indigenous creative
work prior to higher level inventive activity. The principal aim of this paper, however, is to demonstrate that it is possible
to develop robust models to explain changes in the producer price index in Japan, which can then be used to re-examine Japanese
growth performance over the period from about 1960. If the official Japanese statistical body has fully accounted for quality
change in the price indices (i.e. produced fully quality-constant price deflators), then the official estimates of growth
will be correct. However, we provide strong evidence that this is not the case. Changes in quality, proxied by the IP variables,
are important determinants of prices in Japan over the period 1960 to 1995 as a whole. Indeed, we provide evidence that the
true rate of growth of the Japanese economy, taking into account the rate of quality change, is significantly higher than
that suggested in official statistics. 相似文献
18.
The power of ESS: An experimental study 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Abstract. Our experimental design mimics a traditional evolutionary game framework where players are matched pairwise to play a symmetric
33 bimatrix game that has two Nash equilibria. One equilibrium is an evolutionary stable state, or ESS; the other is an equilibrium
in dominated strategies. Our primary experimental result is the observation that the ESS becomes extremely attractive when
subjects have minimal information about the payoff functions, although the dominated equilibrium assures the highest equilibrium
payoff. The attractiveness of the ESS is only moderate when players are completely informed about the 33 payoff matrix.
Correspondence to: S.K. Berninghaus 相似文献
19.
An evolutionary model of the size distribution of firms 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Fariba Hashemi 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(5):507-521
An analytical study of the evolution of the distribution of firm size in an industry is presented. A drift-diffusion model
is proposed to express the time-evolution of density of firm size within the industry. The model blends the conventional,
more or less static, determinants with the kinds of dynamic considerations introduced by stochastic processes of evolutionary
dynamics. The steady-state distribution as well as the dynamic behavior of the model are derived. Parameters in the resulting
analytical expressions are then fit to a population of firms in the non-manufacturing service sector. The empirical portion
of the paper validates the proposed evolutionary model. 相似文献
20.
Paul J. Zak 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(3):343-365
Recent biomedical research shows that roughly three-quarters of cognitive abilities are attributable to genetics and family
environment. This paper presents a growth model that characterizes the role of the intergenerational transmission of genes
and the effect of family environment on growth trajectories. If the average human or physical capital stocks are sufficiently
low, the model shows that the economy will be caught in a poverty trap. Conversely, countries with more resources will converge
to a bala nced growth path where the average rate of genetic transmission of skills from parents to children determines the
long-run rate of output growth. Increased genetic diversity (or income inequality) is shown to raise the fertility rate and
reduce output growth in the transitional dynamics. Thus, nature and nurture are able to explain a variety of countries' growth
experiences. 相似文献