共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
This paper analyzes the determinants of inflation in Italy over the period 1970–1992. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of central bank independence in influencing monetary growth, and on the role of monetary growth and of the Exchange rate Mechanism (ERM) in affecting inflation. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Bank of Italy lacked independence and the ERM was still not credible, monetary growth was highly unstable and was the main determinant of Italian inflation, although oil price and tax shocks also played a role. After the March 1983 general exchange rate realignment and the French U-turn, the ERM became more credible and monetary growth stopped being a significant determinant of inflation; instead, the German inflation became the main variable influencing Italian inflation. 相似文献
2.
3.
Donato Masciandaro 《Open Economies Review》1995,6(4):399-410
This paper reviews recent advances on the role of the central bank in the money supply process and its effects on inflation. The literature is presented according to a three-stage process, with the central bank acting first as social player, then as monetary agent, and finally as a combined monetary and banking agent. 相似文献
4.
Low Inflation,Pass-through,and a Discrete Inflation-targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China
Chengsi Zhang 《中国与世界经济(英文版)》2007,15(2):59-73
The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation pass-through accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions? We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy,which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed. 相似文献
5.
We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country
model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral
peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic
or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively
sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the
best monetary arrangement for the pegger.
JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42 相似文献
6.
In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation. To this end, we empirically evaluate the success of inflation targeting in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and investigate to what extent the joint dynamic processes of inflation and nominal interest rates in these three countries have experienced a structural break at the time of the regime switch to inflation targeting. The experience of Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom is matched with the United States, Australia and Germany. We find that the effectiveness of the direct inflation targeting approach to quickly increase low-inflation credibility so far is ambiguous and that this strategy is not clearly superior to intermediate monetary strategies. 相似文献
7.
中国人民银行海口中心支行课题组 《亚太经济》2008,(6):14-18
面对2007年下半年以来不断恶化的通货膨胀形势,东南亚主要经济体积极运用市场干预政策、财政政策、货币政策等多种政策协调配合应对通货膨胀。短期内,东南亚的通货膨胀取决于国际大宗商品价格能否企稳和其国内政策能否稳定通货膨胀预期;长期内,则取决于社会生产技术发展水平和其企业对上游产品价格上涨的消化吸收能力。东南亚应对通货膨胀的经验与教训值得我们关注。 相似文献
8.
经济开放度在汇率传导过程中起着重要作用,考虑经济开放度后,汇率调整对国内通货膨胀的影响显著增强。研究表明,进口依存度与汇率传导效应正相关,金融开放度与汇率传导效应负相关。通过构建模型,进行实证分析,结果显示,我国的原材料购进价格指数、生产者价格指数和居民消费价格指数与进口依存度、金融开放度和人民币汇率波动关系密切。在现阶段的宏观经济形势下,人民币合理适度的升值有助于缓解国内的通货膨胀压力,促进我国经济内外部均衡发展。 相似文献
9.
Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia,Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Outwardly, the central banks of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. follow somewhat different approaches to controlling inflation. The U.S. does not explicitly target inflation while the other countries do. Canada and New Zealand have target bands for inflation while Australia has a point target. Results in this paper nevertheless find broad similarities in the monetary policies of these countries. Each can be described as having pursued optimal inflation targeting (explicit or implicit), with heavy interest rate smoothing, but perhaps placing little weight on output variability. We argue that interest rate smoothing is used to introduce gradualism into the response of monetary policy to inflation. We show that given heavy interest rate smoothing, a concern for output variability is redundant. 相似文献
10.
Although the existence of differences in economic structure across European countries is well known, their implications for the conduct of the single monetary policy in Stage Three of EMU have not yet been analyzed. This paper explores the issue on the basis of a two-country, rational-expectations, stochastic model characterized by asymmetric structural equations and a general formulation for monetary policy. Only if financial shocks are the main source of instability can heterogeneity in structures be neglected. When real shocks to aggregate demand prevail, their geographical distribution and the difference in the elasticity of aggregate supply are the key factors governing the response to structural differences. When supply shocks predominate, irrespective of their geographical distribution monetary policy should lean against the wind with more determination than if countries were identical. Differences in the transmission lag of monetary policy or some concern for growth when pursuing price stabilization reduce the size of the correction in monetary policy called for by structural asymmetries. 相似文献
11.
央行利率政策的门限转换特征及国际证据 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文利用亚太地区15个国家1992~2007年的面板数据研究了央行利率政策的门限转换特征。结论认为,通货膨胀对经济增长的影响存在显著的门限特征,各国央行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征。在低通胀阶段,利率没有对经济增长与通货膨胀做出显著响应;但在高通胀阶段,央行首先致力于维护金融稳定,然后促进经济增长。文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较,发现二者的利率政策表现出相似的特征,但发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值;文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议。 相似文献
12.
It is by now common knowledge that there can be a significant divergence in the de facto versus de jure exchange rate regimes operated by economies. Although much of the recent published literature in Asia has focused on the crisis-hit economies, Korea and Thailand in particular, scant attention has been paid to Singapore, which officially targets its nominal effective exchange rate (around a band). The present paper examines the degree of exchange rate intervention for Singapore using various methods of assessing de facto exchange rate regimes. In the main, we show that although the Singapore dollar is primarily influenced by the US dollar, in keeping with its de jure classification of a basket pegged regime, other major currencies, such as the yen and the euro, also impact the Singapore dollar. There is also evidence to indicate that Singapore uses the nominal effective exchange rate strategically as a policy instrument to satisfy domestic inflation objectives. 相似文献
13.
由于人民币汇率问题,我国的货物和资产都显得相对廉价。外部世界不仅从我国大量进口可移动的贸易品,还通过直接投资等方式大量“进口”中国的土地和房地产商品,这在一定程度上拉动了房地产商品的价格上涨。所以,研究我国的房地产问题,必须从对外贸易角度来分析。实际上我国这几年来所有的经济问题都可以归纳到货币政策和汇率问题。房价上涨的部分原因在于外部输入的货币量过多,人民币汇率和利率偏低,大量资金涌入房地产市场保值升值,使这一稀缺资源充满了投机性。 相似文献
14.
Simon Broome 《Open Economies Review》2005,16(3):263-281
This paper analyses the stabilising properties of an exchange rate target zone when the stock of available reserves is limited. In these circumstances it is reasonable to suppose that the optimal bandwidth is affected by the expected lifetime of the zone. Our analysis uses Sutherland’s (1995) target zone model to assess the importance of the expected lifetime in determining the optimal width of the zone. We find that the expected lifetime tends to widen the optimal bandwidth considerably but unless the stock of initial reserves is small and/or the fundamentals drift large, the extra lifetime bought is small in percentage terms. 相似文献
15.
China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Since the Asian crisis, the merit of the Chinese government's de facto peg to the US Dollar has been the subject of widening debate. This paper reviews the issues surrounding China's currency regime choice and assesses the case for greater fiexibility. Reform era exchange rate policies are examined along with the performance of the economy during and since the Asian crisis. In the Chinese context, the arguments for and against fixed exchange rates are then explained and assessed. Finally, an elemental comparative static macroeconomic model is used to examine the implications of domestic and external shocks under different exchange rate regimes and with differing degrees of capital mobility. The results support the view that more fiexibility would be beneficial to China and that this benefit can be expected to increase as capital mobility increases. 相似文献
16.
Eelke de Jong 《De Economist》1997,145(4):547-572
A review of recent literature shows that the application of co-integration techniques and the use of larger data sets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both the Purchasing Power Parity and the monetary approach to exchange rate determination as long-run relationships. Forecasts based on variables suggested by the monetary approach outperform the random walk. It is questionable, however, whether the tests used validate the monetary approach of exchange rate determination or just show that macroeconomic variables have a role to play. Target zone arrangements appear to have only a small effect, if any, on exchange rates. A merger of the macroeconomic approach with microeconomic factors may be a fruitful direction to explain short-run behaviour. 相似文献
17.
The existing literature reports a positive relationship between sacrifice ratios and central bank independence. This paper discusses two critical points related to the usual procedures employed by this literature. One concerns the issue of non-stationarity of the inflation rate, the other the problem of correlation between the error terms for different disinflation episodes in the same country. The way in which the sacrifice ratio-central bank independence relationship is tested is reconsidered taking into account these points. Our results shed considerable doubts on the nature and robustness of such a relationship and on the usual interpretation given to it in the literature. 相似文献
18.
Henriette M. Prast 《De Economist》1996,144(3):445-472
Summary This paper surveys the literature on monetary policy in the context of asymmetric information game theory. It distinguishes between the earlier literature focusing on finding reputational equilibria, the literature analyzing the possibilities of using announcements to influence expectations, and the principal-agent approach to the institutional design of monetary policy. The focus is on the institutional implications of the various studies. The conclusion is that institutional reforms directed at independent central banks with a mandate for price stability are not in line with the recommendations from the theory.I would like to thank Willem Boeschoten and an anonymous referee for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. 相似文献
19.
In this paper we propose a generalisation of the noise trader transmission mechanism to examine the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rates. Within a heterogeneous expectation exchange rate model intervention operations are supposed to provide support for chartist or fundamentalist forecasts, which forces portfolio managers to adjust their foreign currency positions. The empirical examination of the hypothesis is done by applying a Markov regime-switching approach to daily DEM/US-dollar exchange rates and intervention data of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1992. It is shown that chartists profits rose whenever these central banks intervened on the foreign exchange market. This is not true for those who follow a fundamentalist approach.JEL Classification Numbers: F31, C32, E58, G15 相似文献
20.