The unreasonable ineffectiveness of mathematics in economics

In this paper, I attempt to show that mathematical economicsis unreasonably ineffective. Unreasonable, because the mathematicalassumptions are economically unwarranted; ineffective becausethe mathematical formalisations imply non-constructive and uncomputablestructures. A reasonable and effective mathematisation of economicsentails Diophantine formalisms. These come with natural undecidabilitiesand uncomputabilities. In the face of this, I conjecture thatan economics for the future will be freer to explore experimentalmethodologies underpinned by alternative mathematical structures.The whole discussion is framed within the context of the celebratedWignerian theme: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematicsin the Natural Sciences.     

Economic history and history of economics

Trust, along with other influential norms of cooperation, has been traditionally viewed as an important coordination mechanism stabilizing expectations of the participants in the informal economic exchanges. Drawing on the example of the informal value transfer system called hawala, this paper, however, shows that the role of safeguard against opportunism in the informal monetary settings is much more reliably performed by the instruments of social control. Norms of control embedded in community beliefs and common social practices among the hawala members entirely replace trusting attitudes, rendering them superfluous for the purpose of protecting financial interests of clients and intermediaries in this informal system of monetary exchanges.     

经济学运用数学的尺度

经济学是否“滥用”数学,不应以“量”来衡量,而应该采取卡尔多-希克斯效率的概念,即用了数学是不是比不用数学更好。经济学研究应该有三个层次:基础研究、应用研究、政策研究。不同层次的研究对数学的需求也是不同的,其中基础研究对数学的要求最高。不能因为经济现象的复杂性、部分经济学家不用数学同样取得成功来否定经济学数学化,经济学数学化会成为一种主流趋势,同时,经济学研究的方法也应该形成一个多元化的格局。     

A history of post-Keynesian economics

John King, in his A History of Post Keynesian Economics Since1936, raises the question of whether there exists a body ofwork which can be called, collectively, post Keynesian. Thispaper presents some criteria for addressing this question, beginningwith the vision and the origins of some of the post-Keynesianideas, leading to an examination of certain features of thevarious groups, including their methodology and their approachesto uncertainty, their pricing theories and their growth theories.It is concluded that, although there is much diversity in thevarious groups, they are reconcilable when seen as referringto different aspects of the economic process and at differinglevels of abstraction.     

Thermodynamics on Main Street: When entropy really counts in economics

The implications of thermodynamics for economic theory have been a source of debate for 40 years. Adopting the framing used in modern engineering rather than physics suggests that the market place has already recognised most of these thermodynamic truths as self-evident rather than challenging basic concepts. The exception is the relatively small market for heat where the idea of thermodynamic grade, conveniently represented by the exergy or available work content of a heat source, exposes inconsistencies especially in monopoly supply and economic instruments. Earlier commentators were not wrong in the thrust of their criticisms of economic theory but may have been overly elaborate in their attack.     

高职院校高等数学课程渗透数学史教育的探索

数学史是研究数学发展规律的科学,在职业院校数学课程教学中渗透数学史教育,对激发学生学习兴趣、培养学生创新能力,具有十分重要的意义。     

Evolutionary economics and the counterfactual threat: on the nature and role of counterfactual history as an empirical tool in economics

Counterfactual conditional statements are ubiquitous in any scientific endeavour. This paper contains an analysis of the nature of counterfactual conditionals and the conditions under which they are considered assertable by scientists. The paper then applies this analysis to the use of counterfactuals in evolutionary economics, arguing that because evolutionary economics is inherently concerned with historical processes it cannot avoid the use of counterfactual history as one of its tools of empirical analysis. We discuss the strengths and pitfalls of counterfactual history. We argue that because evolutionary economics starts from the foundation that randomness may be inherent in any economic system, the very aspects of evolutionary economics that make counterfactual history a desirable empirical tool also make that tool difficult to employ. RID="*" ID="*" We thank the participants of the International Seminar on Evolutionary Economics as a Research Programme in Stockholm, May 1997, for many helpful comments. We also thank Lorri Baier for many helpful substantive and textual comments. Correspondence to: R. Cowan     

Health care economics: An ethical analysis

This paper traces the origins of the rights approach in non-hierarchized, capitalist United States to the era of enlightenment. A third Ethical approach, equality for all and excellence as an ideal, is proposed and justified. Saint Mary's University     

Health care economics: An ethical analysis

This paper traces the origins of the rights approach in non-hierarchized, capitalist United States to the era of enlightenment. A third Ethical approach, equality for all and excellence as an ideal, is proposed and justified.     

Deindustrialization in the UK: a comparison analysis with Japan

As a mature economy, the UK has experienced continuous decline in manufacturing competitiveness under the process of deindustrialization. On the other hand, the service sector has been developing a comparative advantage and creating new jobs. This article attempts to recognize the change in inter-dependence between industries, particularly the manufacturing and service sectors, in the process of deindustrialization. Using partitioned multiplier effects, I analyse the extent to which deindustrialization, particularly expansion in the service sector, has benefited the UK economy. I show that the contribution of the service sector to the UK economy has not been significant.     

The economics of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a US managed-care setting: a retrospective,claims-based analysis

Abstract

Objective: To assess 12-month healthcare resource utilization and costs associated with upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding events.

Methods: Patients hospitalized with a UGI bleeding event were identified in US national health-plan claims data (1999–2003) and propensity matched to control patients without UGI bleeding in the same health plan. Matching criteria included age, gender, index date, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, geographic region, and prior medical utilization.

Results: A total of 9,033 UGI-bleed patients and 579,018 control patients met the inclusion criteria, yielding 4,651 matched pairs. After matching, differences between the UGI bleed and general population cohorts remained for office visits, ER visits, and ER costs during the 6-month baseline period prior to the index date. During the 12 months following the index date, both UGI-related healthcare utilization and total healthcare, medical, and pharmacy costs incurred by the UGI-bleed cohort were significantly greater (p<?0.0001) than those incurred by the general population cohort (mean of $20,405 vs. 3,652), even after excluding the initial hospitalization costs (mean of $11,228 vs. 3,652). Costs were primarily due to inpatient hospitalizations (mean of $13,059 for the UGI-bleed cohort vs. $729 for the general population cohort) and ambulatory services (mean of $4,037 for the UGI-bleed cohort vs. $1,537 for the general population cohort). Sixteen percent of the UGI-bleed cohort had a GI-related hospitalization, and about 40% of total costs occurred after the initial hospitalization.

Conclusions: Patients with UGI bleeds experienced significantly higher (p<?0.0001) 12-month health-resource utilization and costs than patients without UGI bleeds. This study provides empirical evidence of the long-term economic burden associated with UGI bleeding. Interpretation of the results should take into account the lack of available information in claims data that could have an effect on study outcomes, such as particular clinical and disease-specific parameters that are not mitigated by propensity score and comorbidity index matching. In addition, this study is limited by the intensive demographic matching that was done between the two cohorts, which may have eliminated the sickest UGI patients and the healthiest general health-plan population patients.     

The economics of gateway technologies and network evolution: Lessons from electricity supply history

Contemporary economic issues concerning technological innovation and compatibility standardization in emergent ‘network’ industries are illuminated indirectly in this paper by the examination of the historical development of the technology of electric light and power systems in the United States and Europe during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. The discussion focuses on the rivalry between the initially incompatible technical formulations of a system supplying electric lighting and power. In the dynamics of competition between alternative technologies under such conditions, the details of the timing of small historical events could have important and lasting consequences.Special notice is given to the role which the induced invention of a compatibility-creating technical device-the rotary converter-played in the conduct and resolution of the so-called ‘Battle of the Systems’. The rotary converter is analyzed as a paradigmatic ‘gateway innovation’, one of a large class of ‘minor’ technological innovations whose actual importance in the context of network evolution warrants greater recognition from economists.     

模仿经济学:一种新的方法论

创建模仿经济学的重大意义在于它为观察、解释经济现象和预测经济趋势提供了一种新的方法论、一种新的视角。作为一门边缘学科，模仿经济学的生命力在于它能借助社会心理学的科研成果，重新对主流经济学所关注的问题进行解释，并提出正确的政策建议。从方法论角度看，模仿经济学所提供的方法论立足于人的互动关系。从个体出发，同时又归结到群体，在理性与非理性的双重属性中观察经济现实，因而其用途极其广泛。     

The stability and breakup of nations: a quantitative analysis

This paper quantitatively analyzes the stability and breakup of nations. The tradeoff between increasing returns in the provision of public goods and the costs of greater cultural heterogeneity mediates agents’ preferences over different geographical configurations, thus determining the likelihood of secessions and unions. After calibrating the model to Europe, we identify the regions prone to secession and the countries most likely to merge. We then estimate the implied monetary gains from EU membership. As a test of the theory, we show that the model can account for the breakup of Yugoslavia and the dynamics of its disintegration. We find that economic differences between the Yugoslav republics determined the order of disintegration, but cultural differences, though small, were key to the country’s instability. The paper also provides empirical support for the use of genetic distances as a proxy for cultural heterogeneity.