The Financial Stability of Notional Account Pensions

A number of European countries are reforming their pension benefit formulas by adopting 'notional' accounts. These accounts are used to determine individual benefits, but pay-as-you-go financing is retained. This paper addresses the belief that by choosing adjustment rules cleverly, notional accounts can provide automatic financial equilibrium in the short run. If this were true, it would be a valuable advantage in terms of insulating the government budget from demographic pressures, while insulating the pension budget from fiscal pressures. It is shown that notional account benefit formulas cannot provide automatic financial equilibrium in the short run. The paper also suggests that if indexing rules are chosen in a particular way, and shocks revert rapidly to a mean, the pension institution may achieve financial stability in the long run. However, long-run stability is unlikely to be valuable because political interference occurs in the short run.     

Education and the State

In the ethics-economy debate, money and credit have acquired growing significance. Moral judgements on some aspects of money and credit emerged particularly in the late medieval period when their development led the economic system towards capitalism. Scholarly Islamic and Christian analyses show that the evolution of money and credit may have triggered prejudices about the ethically-based rules underpinning the economy and society. Thought on the late medieval monetary and credit institutions highlight points of contact between Christian and Islamic ethical codes which are still of great interest, especially for the identification of a shared ethics going beyond business.     

The Economics of Pensions: A non-conventional approach

This paper examines two alternative pension systems, pay-as-you-go (PAYGS) and the capitalisation system (CS) in the light of alternative economic theories. It starts from a critical discussion of the insurance-fiction model of PAYGS proposed by Samuelson in 1958. The pros and cons of that model are illustrated by taking into consideration the non-orthodox views of Keynes, Lerner, Pechman, de Finetti and Eisner. Next, the paper investigates the relationship between CS and the marginalist capital theory. It is shown that, interpreted in a neoclassical framework, CS presents endogenous mechanisms of adjustment to demographic shocks. The problems of the transition between PAYGS and CS are then examined. The paper then discusses some main features of the current US policy debates on the Social Security system. Finally, the alleged advantages of a wider adoption of CS are criticised in the light of the Keynesian theory of effective demand reinforced by the Sraffian criticism of neoclassical capital theory.     

Pensions with endogenous and stochastic fertility

This paper studies the design of a pay-as-you-go social security system in an overlapping generations model where fertility is in part stochastic and in part determined through capital investment. If investments are publicly observable, pension benefits must be linked positively to the level of investment, and payroll taxes negatively to the number of children. The outcome is characterized by full insurance with all parents, regardless of their number of children, enjoying identical consumption levels. Without observability, benefits must increase, and payroll taxes decrease, with the number of children. The second-best level of investment, and the resulting average fertility rate, are less than their corresponding first-best levels.     

The Pensions Green Paper: A Generational Accounting Perspective

In this note we show how the policy proposals contained in the government's Green Paper on pensions (DSS, 1998) affect the long term sustainability of the UK's public finances and redistribution between current and future generations. Using the methodology of generational accounting we show that the proposals in the Green Paper will marginally increase the tax rise needed to ensure intertemporal solvency, and slightly worsen generational imbalances. The effect of implied changes in National Insurance Contributions, and the fiscal and generational implications of fully funding the proposed State Second Pension, are also discussed.     

代际旅游的内涵界定及表现形式

基于代际关系考虑的代际旅游是在我国家庭代际关系变迁和消费观念转变的背景下产生的,其存在具有绝对性,范围有其针对性,表现形式有亲子游、孝敬父母游、隔代游和大家庭旅游。     

养老基金和责任积累:中国面临的选择

文章分析了中国为老年人提供养老金的现实需要,深入探索了其他国家提供养老金的经验。文章认为,中国已经建立了股票交易,引进了外资,并且市场机制发挥作用的范围也越来越大,各种养老基金的供给方法已经与中国老龄化社会问题较大地关联在一起。     

The Evolutionary Theory of Time Preferences and Intergenerational Transfers

At each age an organism produces energy by foraging and allocates this energy among reproduction, survival, growth, and intergenerational transfers. We characterize the optimal set of allocation decisions that maximizes fitness. Time preference (the discount rate) is derived from the marginal rate of substitution between energy obtained at two different times or ages, holding fitness constant. Time preference varies with age in different ways depending on whether an individual is immature or mature, and during the transition between these stages. We conclude that time preference and discount rates are likely to be U-shaped across age.     

教育融资体制对代际流动性与不平等程度的动态影响：基于OL G模型的分析

传统的代际流动性研究并没有对代际流动性的短期值和长期值作有效区分,也未考虑人力资本形成中的不确定性,因而“代际流动性越高则不平等程度越低”这一分析结论并未在中国的现实中呈现。文章据此通过构建一个代际交叠模型比较分析了公共教育体制和市场教育体制下的代际流动性。模型动态分析发现：(1)公共教育体制下的不平等程度的长期值比市场教育体制下更低。(2)代际流动性短期值的升高并不总是伴随着不平等程度的下降,当社会受到某种剧烈冲击时可能发生两者同升同降的情况。(3)政府进行激进式的教育体制改革会使人力资本收敛速率发生跃升,并且使不平等程度的短期值和长期值都增大,而代际流动性则会在突降后在逐渐收敛到新的更低的稳态值。(4)人力资本积累不确定性参数值反映了个体不可观测的技能或先天禀赋,是影响代际流动性和不平等程度的重要因素。不确定性的突然上升会使不平等程度的短期值迅速上升,并且会使不平等程度的长期值达到新的高位,虽然代际流动性短期值也会迅速上升,但依旧会逐渐收敛到以前的稳态值不变。文章的研究有益于厘清代际流动性与不平等程度的复杂关系,也能为相关实证研究提供参考。     

Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links

Previous work has had difficulty generating household saving behaviour that makes the distribution of wealth much more concentrated than that of labour earnings, and that makes the richest households hold onto large amounts of wealth, even during very old age. I construct a quantitative, general equilibrium, overlapping-generations model in which parents and children are linked by accidental and voluntary bequests and by earnings ability. I show that voluntary bequests can explain the emergence of large estates, while accidental bequests alone cannot, and that adding earnings persistence within families increases wealth concentration even more. I also show that the introduction of a bequest motive generates lifetime savings profiles more consistent with the data.     

Intergenerational Altruism and the Environment

We construct an overlapping generations model of pollution externality in which individuals are altruistically linked to their offspring as in Barro (1974). It is shown that steady-state consumption may be a decreasing function of the intergenerational degree of altruism. Despite individuals' altruism, the competitive equilibrium is not optimal. We thus study the social optimum and show that it can be decentralized.
JEL classification: D 62; D 64; D 91     

International and Intergenerational Environmental Externalities

We examine a world in which policymakers' actions in a given country at a given time have long-lived effects on a common resource: the global environment. We consider the first best in which long-lived planners behave cooperatively, then examine the allocation of resources when there is non-cooperation across countries, across time, or both. Finally we analyze the dynamic behavior of the economy along balanced growth paths. It is found that while long-lived international institutions are necessary to internalize all externalities, cooperation at a point in time may be harmful to future generations.     

Intergenerational Redistribution and Fiscal Policy

This article argues that although the intergenerational stance of fiscal policy is hard to measure accurately, a goal of approximate generational balance is reasonable.     

Increasing Dependency Ratios, Pensions and Tax Smoothing

The implication of increasing dependency ratios for pay–as–you–go, defined–benefit pension programmes are examined. Modifications aimed at smoothing contributions while maintaining benefits intact are analysed for both open and closed economies.
(J.E.L.: H2, F3, J1).     

Intergenerational mobility and macroeconomic history dependence

A large literature on ‘endogenous inequality’ has argued that persistent differences in macroeconomic performance across countries can be explained by historical inequality, owing to indivisibilities in occupational choice and borrowing constraints. These models are characterized by homogenous agents, a continuum of steady states (SSs) and lack of mobility in every SS. We show that introducing (even a little) heterogeneity in order to generate SS mobility shrinks the SS set dramatically. Mobile SSs are generically locally unique and finite in number. Sufficient conditions for global uniqueness and convergence of competitive equilibrium dynamics are provided.     

Backward Intergenerational Goods and Endogenous Fertility

This paper characterizes the consequences of introducing the public provision of intergenerational goods to the elderly in a model with endogenous fertility. With exogenous fertility, it has been shown that the government can mandate the first‐best outcome by simply imposing the socially optimal transfer. By contrast, with endogenous fertility, the government can no longer enforce this outcome. This is due, in part, to the effects of mandatory provision on the birth rate. However, taxes may still have a salubrious effect on social welfare as they can eliminate particularly bad equilibria.     

地方环境规制中的代际公平问题研究

代际公平问题涉及当代人与后代人之间的福利和资源分配问题,是衡量可持续发展的标准之一。在地方层面,由于代际市场的缺失以及代内决策者的有限理性,环境规制很难避免代际外部性和代际利益冲突的产生。结合我国转轨时期的现实背景,对地方环境规制中的代际公平问题进行分析,并提出改革思路和政策建议。