Prospects for hydrogen use in decentralized power and heat supply systems

Possible uses of hydrogen produced from natural gas in fuel cells in decentralized power and heat supply systems are considered. Conditions for the competitiveness of the new technology compared to centralized and decentralized systems based on heat-and-power miniplants with gas-turbine and gas-piston engines are defined. Fuel cell-based systems that use natural gas as fuel are shown to be not energy-saving technologies, although they help reduce the discharges of carbon dioxide and other contaminants to the environment. Large-scale application of fuel cells in decentralized energy-saving systems is only possible if their cost is reduced below $100 per kilowatt.     

Substitutions among energy imputs in U.S. manufacturing

Summary and Conclusion With cross-section data on the purchases of four energy inputs by 11 U.S. manufacturing industries, Allen partial cross elasticities of input substitution and own price elasticities of demand were computed. The sample set represents 85 percent of total manufacturing energy demand in 1962. The substitution elasticities between fuel oil and natural gas, fuel oil and purchased electricity, and between natural gas and electricity, were statistically significant for about half of the 11 two-digit SIC industries studied. These elasticities ranged between 12.9 and 1.7 with half of them less than 4.0.Importantly, the elasticity of substitution between coal and the above three energy inputs was significantly different from zero in only three manufacturing industries (comprising some 35 percent of total manufacturing energy demand). Thus it would appear that only three U.S. manufacturing sectors will contribute towards the substitution of domestic for international energy sources. Indirect substitution between energy sources, with the consequent implications for the balance of payments, will primarily have to come from the substitution of electricity (from coal-fired plants) for natural gas (from Canada) and fuel oil (indirectly from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America).Similar substitution results were found when all 11 industries were aggregated together or divided into large and small energy demand groups. As well, there appear to be no significant differences in overall substitution response between the two categories of large and small energy users. Supporting the substitution results, we found that the own price elasticity of demand for coal to be about –.5 and not different from zero while the price elasticities for natural gas, fuel oil, and purchased electricity were between –.7 and –2.67 (and statistically different from zero).As a general conclsuion, the substitution of domestic coal for other energy inputs will primarily have to come indirectly through greater use of coal to produce electricity which is purchased by the manufacturing sector. The scope for direct substitution of coal for other energy inputs in U.S. manufacturing is limited to only three sectors and cannot be expected to have an exceptionally large impact on mitigating the inflation and blanace of payments implications of the recent increases in the price of imported energy inputs.This work was undertaken at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Discussions with George Green, A. Ray Grimes, Jr., Michael Mohr, John R. Moroney, Gorti Narasimham, and Benjamin Wolkowitz are acknowledged. These individuals, as well as the B.E.A. and the author's present employer, remain independent from the views expressed in this study.     

燃料乙醇产业的经济学分析

中国经济发展凸显能源问题,作为一种新型可替代能源,燃料乙醇产业的发展令人瞩目,国内燃料乙醇产能扩大已经成为无法阻挡的趋势。中国燃料乙醇的生产技术、原料、供应、产业开发、政府扶持政策等方面都有了初步起色,具有乐观的经济前景。     

美国天然气消费与经济增长之间的关系研究对中国的启示

本文分析了从1949～2010年以来美国实际GDP和美国天然气消费之间的关系,主要运用到了计量经济学中的协整理论和Granger因果关系检验理论。从分析的结果得出,美国天然气消费量和美国经济增长之间是有协整关系的。美国天然气消费量的增长是美国实际GDP增长的原因。美国近年来对天然气的发展做了很大推动,特别是在页岩气方面的技术取得了长足的发展,有效地改善了能源结构。中国也应吸取美国的好经验,大力发展天然气,来应对煤炭的日益减少。     

日本天然气市场开发及其对我国的启示

天然气行业是典型的垄断行业，其价格受政府管制由来已久．20世纪90年代以来。日本逐步放松对天然气市场的管制，采取了更加灵活的市场开发政策，促进了天然气的利用。我国天然气生产和消费所占的比重较低，应当通过放松管制加快天然气市场开发的步伐。     

The regional effects of Indonesia's oil and gas policy: options for reform

This paper analyses the effects on the regions of Indonesia's fuel policy. It discusses how the sharing of oil and gas revenue and taxes between the centre and the regions affects the sub-national fiscal position, and examines the distribution of fuel subsidies across regions. The paper also examines the recent proposals to discontinue subsidising gasoline for private vehicles or to eliminate fuel subsidies altogether, and shows how the regions would be affected if these suggestions were adopted. We argue that the proposals would increase efficiency and equity and should therefore be implemented.     

基于GM-DEA对天然气操作成本预测及投入产出优化研究

以气田的天然气操作成本预测与优化控制为研究对象,以HTB气田天然气成本为基础,采用GM(1,1)模型对天然气操作成本进行预测,并运用DEA(I-C2 R)技术对投入产出要素进行评价和优化,从而比较准确的为气田管理部门提供优化成本的措施,可帮助气田实现资源的优化配置,从而提高气田的整体经济效益。     

Restricted electricity use among poor urban households

For a variety of reasons, this article argues, electricity must be seen by policy‐makers in South Africa not as the sole provider of all future household energy needs, but rather as one component of an energy mix which includes such ‘transitional’ fuels as coal, gas and paraffin. The reasons for this are that electricity is expensive for poor households; it is subject to power failures and disconnections for non‐payment; the poor find it difficult to monitor and to control their consumption; appliances are expensive and several are required to make best use of electricity; people prefer other fuels because they are familiar and have strong personal and cultural associations, and because Eskom is not trusted owing to its past ties to illegitimate local authorities and misunderstanding of electricity and how its use is monitored and charged for. Further, it is mistaken to equate ‘development’ with total electrification: most developed countries have fuel mixes which include gas and coal, particularly for cooking and heating. Accepting an affordable fuel mix for the poor in particular would focus attention on the problems currently associated with paraffin, gas and coal, namely fires, poisoning and air pollution.     

Forecasting the Dynamics of the Depletion of Conventional Energy Resources

The paper presents the results of forecasting the dynamics of the depletion of conventional energy resources, including hydrocarbons (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural uranium, which currently form the mainstay of the energy supply of the economy. A balance model developed by the authors shows the dynamics of the growing shortage of exhaustible conventional energy resources after 2040 at various energy-consumption rates. For the time being, it is unclear which nonconventional primary energy sources are able to supply advanced commercially acceptable fast-growing energy systems (including capital investment) in order to equalize the rapidly growing primary energy shortages expected in the 1940s. The most advanced energy technology with almost unlimited resources that has reached the near-commercial stage of development can be nuclear fuel breeding.     

计及调峰因素的F级和H级燃气机组选型研究

发展天然气发电对于推动地区优化能源结构、促进节能减排、实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。天然气发电机组凭借环保、快速启停等优点,已越来越多地应用于电力系统调峰调频。对于峰谷差明显、长期存在调峰压力、即将大规模接入海上风电等间歇性可再生电源的某东部沿海省份电力系统而言,“十四五”期间及以后建设一批调峰气电意义重大。随着东部地区天然气供应能力的逐步增强,天然气发电已具备良好的建设基础。气电的合理规模与布局、电源与电网的协调发展,共同保障电力安全供应、增强电力系统稳定水平。天然气发电机组其清洁高效、启停迅速、运行灵活、调节性能好的优点,而不同类型的天然气发电机组在技术性能、碳排放、度电成本等方面具有不同的特点,因此为促进天然气发电高质量发展,结合天然气发电机组的发展趋势及电网调峰需求,本研究拟对某东部沿海省份未来天然气发电机组选型进行研究。     

Ancillary Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Transitional Economies

The paper presents the results of an ancillary benefits study in Russia, including the health benefits of reducing conventional pollutants as well as the economic benefits of saving fuel achieved by controlling greenhouse gas emissions. We present illustrative examples of the ancillary benefits in the forestry sector. Our findings show that the benefits from conventional pollution reduction and savings in fuel are significant and institutional reforms are needed to capture them. The “aggregated” approach, using a crosscountry macroeconomic model, contains some uncertainties, but the assumptions required for our analysis did not compromise this study, which is the first of its kind for Russia.     

Assessing the impact of environmental pollution damage on the competitiveness of hydrogen as a motor fuel

This paper examines conditions for the competitiveness of hydrogen versus conventional hydrocarbon motor fuels. The economic efficiency of different alternative fuels is analyzed on the basis of specially designed models that can incorporate a broad variety of technical and economic parameters of fuel production, distribution and use. Main attention is paid to consequences of air pollutant emission, which stimulate interest in the use of alternative, in particular, hydrogen, technologies. The total, energy and environmental costs of conventional and hydrogen technologies of motor transport are calculated and parameters of hydrogen technologies at which they can become commercially attractive to users are evaluation.     

垃圾气化处理新技术研究

垃圾是一种有价值的燃料来源，垃圾气化所产生的燃气，具有较高的热值，既能燃烧发电，又可用于采暖、供城市燃气。首先介绍了垃圾气化技术的国内外研究及应用现状，然后介绍了一种利用生物质粉体燃料为热能的外加热式垃圾气化炉的工艺流程。     

中俄天然气合作的曲折历史、原因及对策

中俄天然气合作历程艰辛, 原因复杂多样, 本文通过分析这些问题提出一些建议. 文章首先阐述中俄天然气合作谈判经过几番曲折, 从1994年到2014年十年的努力, 中俄终于在2014年签署东线合作协议; 其次, 文章对天然气谈判曲折的原因进行了分析; 最后, 通过分析提出相应对策和建议.     

Pricing Natural Gas in Mexico: An Application of the Little‐Mirrlees Rule—The Case of Quasi‐Rents

In 1997, the Comisión Reguladora de Energía of Mexico implemented a netback rule for linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Texas price. At that time, the Texas price reflected a reasonably competitive market. There have been dramatic increases in the demand for gas, and there are various bottlenecks in the supply of gas. As a result, the price of gas in Texas now reflects the quasi‐rents created by these bottlenecks. We show that it is optimal for the Mexican government to use the netback rule based on the Texas price of gas to set the price of gas in Mexico even though the Texas market cannot be considered a competitive market, and the Texas price for gas reflects quasi‐rents created by various bottlenecks.     

天然气市场下可中断负荷参与备用市场研究

可中断负荷作为一种有效的调峰措施,在市场环境下也可视为系统备用容量。首先阐述了可中断负荷的概念以及天然气市场下的可中断负荷设计与电力市场的区别;然后基于层次分析法,提出了天然气备用市场选择可中断负荷的决策模型。最后算例分析结果表明,该模型具有很好的实用性和合理性,为天然气备用市场选择可中断负荷提供了有益的思路。同时,本研究也对天然气终端消费市场推行需求侧管理具有很好的促进作用。     

安徽省天然气工业发展对策研究

本文分析了安徽省发展天然气工业的主要优势和存在的主要问题。在此基础上,提出了安徽省天然气工业的发展应从树立全新的发展意识和经营理念、主动获取更多的天然气资源、高效安全输送天然气、加强对外合作力度、多渠道开拓天然气市场、促进天然气发展政策措施六个方面着手。     

基于CFD的隧道内高压埋地天然气管道泄漏情景分析

天然气具有流动性好、密度低和可压缩性强的优点，使其更适合于管道运输。基于计算流体动力学（CFD）数值模拟方法，对长距离高压埋地天然气管道途经隧道中发生的特殊泄漏扩散工况进行研究。结果表明：埋地管道泄漏受土壤多孔介质阻力影响，由泄漏口向外压力和速度分布呈骤减趋势；埋地高压天然气管道泄漏后气体向隧道中的扩散速度较快，600 s后天然气分布基本达到平衡状态，且浓度已达到甲烷5%的爆炸下限；泄漏后，隧道内空气区域的天然气浓度变化可以分为零增长阶段、陡然增长阶段、缓慢增长阶段和稳定阶段4个时间段，天然气泄漏后在隧道内的扩散首先位于隧道顶部，为尽早发现泄漏事故可燃气体报警装置应安装在隧道顶端。     

Power to the people: working-class demand for household power in 1930s Britain

The 1930s witnessed an intense struggle between gas and electricity suppliers for the working class market, where the incumbent utility—gas—was also a reasonably efficient (and cheaper) General Purpose Technology for most domestic uses. Local monopolies for each supplier boosted substitution effects between fuel types—as alternative fuels constituted the only local competition. Using newly-rediscovered returns from a major national household expenditure survey, we employ geographically-determined instrumental variables, more commonly used in the industrial organization literature, to show that gas provided a significant competitor, tempering electricity prices, while electricity demand was also responsive to marketing initiatives.     

超高温高压含CO2天然气偏差因子预测模型

在超高温高压条件下,含CO2天然气相态实验开展困难,偏差因子的变化规律认识不清,导致现有天然气偏差因子预测模型适用性不明确.通过测定不同CO2含量的天然气偏差因子,分析超高温高压条件下CO2对天然气偏差因子的影响程度,发现CO2含量的增加显著加强了含CO2天然气的可压缩性.基于实验数据,分析传统偏差因子预测模型的适用性,并通过拟合建立针对海上乐东气藏新的偏差因子经验预测模型.该模型具有可解析、精度高的优点.