Testing for Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets

This article reviews and evaluates the empirical literature on adverse selection in insurance markets. We focus on empirical work that seeks to test the basic coverage–risk prediction of adverse selection theory—that is, that policyholders who purchase more insurance coverage tend to be riskier. The analysis of this body of work, we argue, indicates that whether such a correlation exists varies across insurance markets and pools of insurance policies. We discuss various reasons why a coverage–risk correlation may not be found in some pools of insurance policies. The presence of a coverage–risk correlation can be explained either by moral hazard or adverse selection, and we discuss methods for distinguishing between them. Finally, we review the evidence on learning by policyholders and insurers.     

Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets

Inferences drawn from tests of market efficiency are rendered imprecise in the presence of infrequent trading. As the observed index in thinly traded markets may not represent the true underlying index value, there is a systematic bias toward rejecting the efficient market hypothesis. For the three emerging Gulf markets examined in this paper, correction for infrequent trading significantly alters the results of market efficiency and random walk tests. The Beveridge–Nelson (1981) decomposition of index returns is done to estimate the underlying index.     

Adverse selection and the market for annuities

Adverse selection is often blamed for the malfunctioning of the annuities market. We simulate the impact of adverse selection on the consumption allocation of annuitants under alternative parameter values, and explore the resulting welfare implications. We show that, for most parameter values, the welfare losses associated with equilibriums that are subject to adverse selection correspond to a loss of wealth of around one percent in a first-best equilibrium. These losses are smaller than the corresponding losses associated with equilibriums with no access to an annuity market by an order of magnitude of ten. The existence of substitutes for annuities such as a bequest motive or a social security system intensifies the adverse selection but reduces its welfare impact.

Drivers and impact of food inflation in India

Average food inflation in India during 2006–2013 was one of the highest among emerging market economies, and nearly double the inflation witnessed in India during the previous decade. In this paper, we analyse the behaviour and determinants of food inflation over the recent past. Our main findings include that recent surge in food inflation in India is a result of various factors. On the cost side, agricultural wage inflation is found to be a universal driver of food commodities inflation, as well as the aggregate food inflation. The contribution of agricultural wages has increased significantly in the post Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Act era. Fuel inflation has a moderate impact on food inflation and the effects vary across commodities. Our analysis indicates limited role of fuel and international prices, except for in tradeables. Finally, results suggest significant pass-through effects from food to non-food and to the headline inflation.     

Interest Rates and the Market for New Light Vehicles

We study the impact of interest rate changes on the demand and supply of new light vehicles in an environment where consumers and manufacturers face their own interest rates. Interest rate changes impact the auto market through both households and manufacturers. For the impact of rate changes on price and output growth, the household channel is quantitatively more important. A 100 basis‐point increase in both interest rates causes annual growth rates of production to fall from 1.0% to ?11.0% and sales to fall from 1.0% to ?2.9% in the short run.     

Adverse selection costs for NASDAQ and NYSE after decimalization

NYSE and NASDAQ completed their decimalization on January 29, 2001 and on April 9, 2001 respectively. In this paper, we compare adverse selection component of the bid–ask spread for NASDAQ and NYSE stocks after decimalization using the data from May 2001 and July 2001. We find that the adverse selection component of the bid–ask spread is significantly lower on NASDAQ than on NYSE, and these differences cannot be attributed to the differences in the characteristics of the stocks traded in the two markets. In addition, we find that the adverse selection costs increase with trade size on NYSE, however there is no monotonic pattern observed for NASDAQ stocks. Lastly, we report that although the order flows arrived in the two markets are significantly different, they can at best explain a small portion of the observed differences in adverse selection costs.     

Drivers for the voluntary adoption of consolidated financial statements in local governments

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates consolidated financial statements (CFS), which have been implemented by several countries. In Italy, CFS implementation was preceded by a testing period in which local governments could participate on a voluntary basis. This paper explains why this was a useful preliminary step to implementing CFS: the local governments that took part in the testing period were able to enhance their knowledge of the topic while improving their employees’ skills.     

东盟自由贸易协定的基本特征、推动因素与前景展望

近年来,东盟积极参与自由贸易协定签署,已经成为亚洲地区重要的自由贸易协定中心之一。推动东盟积极参与自由贸易协定的因素,既有内部的经济一体化要求、大国均衡战略以及国际地位提升需要,也有主要发达国家东南亚战略变化的原因。东盟自由贸易协定格局的形成,一方面会削弱中国-东盟自由贸易区的经济效应,另一方面会对中国形成战略制约,积极调整我国的自由贸易协定战略势在必行。     

Global Drivers of and Local Resistance to French Shareholder Activism

Shareholder activism in France has made significant advances during the past 25 years even as it continues to face formidable sources of local resistance. But if the list of corporate governance improvements since 1989 described by the authors might lead one to conclude that France now has minority shareholder protection and shareholder activism comparable to those of the U.S. or U.K., powerful local interests, including much of French management, labor, and government, continue to mount effective resistance to such forces for change. The French government still works closely with French business elites and unions to manage both individual companies and the general economy. And government officials continue to speak publicly of “protecting” French firms from “illegitimate” foreign shareholders. Accordingly, the authors characterize French corporate governance as a “hybrid” model of shareholder activism, one that incorporates the perspectives and interests of the classic French stakeholder model as well as an emerging shareholder value movement. Although foreign institutional investors have increased their shareholdings in French companies and promoted “best practice” governance rules, particularly with respect to voting rights, local forces will continue to resist aggressive shareholder activism. Such a hybrid model makes the outcomes of shareholder activism less predictable, a risk that foreign investors and companies often respond to by seeking alliances with local proxy advisers and investor associations to gain “legitimacy.”     

Experience-Rating Mechanisms in Auto Insurance: Implications for High-Risk,Low-Risk,and Novice Drivers

Using a unique data set that rates a cohort of drivers on two distinct experience-rating mechanisms, we examine the impact of these experience-rating mechanism on premiums charged to low-risk, high-risk, and novice drivers. The first mechanism is a pure no-claims discount that classifies drivers by 0 to 6 or more years of at-fault claims-free driving. The second is a bonus-malus system with 32 driving record (DR) classes. Using standard stochastic modeling techniques, we find that having a greater number of DR classes does not result in lower prices for the new drivers nor does it create significant savings to the lowest risk drivers. And, not surprisingly, with an increasing number of malus DR classes, the highest risk insureds pay a substantially higher premium that may not be sustainable over time. Due to its mandatory nature in most countries, monitoring the fairness of the classification mechanism and the affordability and availability of auto insurance are common regulatory goals. Charging novice drivers excessively high premiums may conflict with affordability and fairness objectives. Thus, we conclude with an examination of other pricing mechanisms that can be used for novice drivers.     

Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article.     

Adverse selection and moral hazard: Quantitative implications for unemployment insurance

A model of optimal unemployment insurance with adverse selection and moral hazard is constructed. The model generates both qualitative and quantitative implications for the optimal provision of unemployment insurance. Qualitatively, for some agents, incentives in the optimal contract imply consumption increases over the duration of non-employment. Calibrating the model to a stylized version of the U.S. economy quantitatively illustrates these theoretical predictions. The optimal contract achieves a welfare gain of 1.94% relative to the current U.S. system, an additional 0.87% of gains relative to a planner who ignores adverse selection and focuses only on moral hazard.     

Drivers of economic and financial integration: A machine learning approach

We propose a new approach to identifying drivers of economic and financial integration, separately, and across emerging and developed countries. Our advanced machine learning technique allows for nonlinear relationships, corrects for over-fitting, and is less prone to noise. It also can tackle a large number of highly correlated explanatory variables and controls for multicollinearity. Results suggest that general economic growth, increasing international trade, and contained population growth have helped emerging countries catch up to the level of the economic integration of developed countries. However, slow financial development and a high level of investment riskiness have hindered the speed of emerging countries’ financial integration. Furthermore, the results suggest that integration is a gradual process and is not driven by cyclical or transitory events.     

独立董事否定意见发表与换届未连任

在公司治理实践中,对董事会议案出具否定性意见是独立董事履行监督职能最具代表性的行为,而换届未连任是我国制度背景和文化特质下更为真实的独董离职方式。利用我国上市公司独立董事对议案发表意见的独特数据,本文从否定意见的具体类型、董事会议案事项、是否集体行动等三个方面实证考察了对董事会议案说“不”与独董未来是否在第一任期结束后实现连任之间的关系。研究发现,在我国公司治理实践中,出具否定意见的方式(委婉或直接、集体或单独)有时比否定意见本身更加重要;即使同样是否定性意见,但如果针对的董事会议案事项不同,独董未来连任的可能性也不同。一般而言,明确出具反对意见的,针对内部人的反对事项以及集体说不的独董未来连任的可能性更低,因而独董所预期的公司治理角色由于上述“逆淘汰”机制和“任人唯亲”的董事会文化的存在而大打折扣。本文的研究提示,应该为独董出具否定性意见的相关法律风险提供更加明确的指引,避免政策模糊地带,将有利于独董更好地履行监督职能。     

Adverse Selection and the Opaqueness of Insurers

While adverse selection problems between insureds and insurers are well known to insurance researchers, few explore adverse selection in the insurance industry from a capital markets perspective. This study examines adverse selection in the quoted prices of insurers' common stocks with a particular focus on the opacity of both asset portfolios and underwriting liabilities. We find that more opaque underwriting lines result in greater adverse selection costs for property-casualty (P-C) insurers. A similar effect is not apparent for life-health (L-H) insurers and we find no effect of asset opaqueness on adverse selection for either L-H or P-C insurers.     

Adverse selection and the presence of informed trading

We combine two concepts of informed trading – contrarian trades and stealth trading – to develop proxies for the probability of informed trading. These proxies are used to test the link between informed trading and adverse selection as measured by bid–ask spreads and stock illiquidity. The estimation results show that these proxies, which are based on the probability of contrarian trading (PC) and progressively refined thereon, are all highly significantly positive in various empirical specifications of the cross-sectional determinants of spreads and illiquidity across stocks, and after controlling for important firm characteristics and trading factors. The robustness of our PC-based proxies for informed trading in these analyses, especially for the further refined measures, suggests that they successfully capture the adverse selection component of bid–ask spreads and illiquidity due to information asymmetry.     

逆向选择与信用配给:中小企业融资难根源分析

文章通过中美中小企业融资的渠道和结构对比,分析中国中小企业融资困难的原因,并进一步通过两个模型解释资金借贷市场上的逆向选择问题和银行被迫采用的信用配给制度.文章最后提出了解决中小企业融资困难的一些建议.     

Upstairs Market for Principal and Agency Trades: Analysis of Adverse Information and Price Effects

This paper directly tests the hypothesis that upstairs intermediation lowers adverse selection cost. We find upstairs market makers effectively screen out information-motivated orders and execute large liquidity-motivated orders at a lower cost than the downstairs market. Upstairs markets do not cannibalize or free ride off the downstairs market. In one-quarter of the trades, the upstairs market offers price improvement over the limit orders available in the consolidated limit order book. Trades are more likely to be executed upstairs at times when liquidity is lower in the downstairs market.     

创业投资的退出方式：比较与选择

退出通道不畅很容易成为创业投资发展的瓶颈性障碍。创业资本有多种退出方式，不同退出方式各有其优缺点。创业投资主体对不同退出方式的偏好受自身条件和制度环境的制约。在实践中，可以通过完善退出机制来推动创业投资的良性发展。