国债收益率曲线与经济增长和货币政策的关系

基准利率是货币政策有效传导的核心要素和金融资产定价及金融产品创新的基础,以国债收益率作为基准利率可以更好地反映基准利率属性.国债收益率曲线的长期收益率与短期收益率相差较大时,经济处于快速扩张周期,当其相差较小甚至曲线出现倒挂时,经济正在走向衰退.     

我国经济开放度与经济增长关系实证研究

在开放经济体系下,一国经济增长不仅取决于国内需求和国内投资的拉动,进出口贸易、国际投资等外部因素对经济增长的作用也日益重要。通过协整分析技术、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验对我国经济开放度与经济增长的长期均衡和短期波动进行实证分析。结论表明,我国经济开放度各项指标与经济增长均存在正向的协整关系,贸易开放度的提高促进了我国的经济增长,同时,经济增长又反向提高了我国投资开放度与生产开放度,各项开放度指标具有较小的波动幅度,短期波动对长期均衡的回调速度较小。     

汇率、贸易开放度与经济增长:短期波动与长期均衡——基于自回归分布滞后模型的经验研究

文章通过构建自回归分布滞后模型研究了汇率波动情况下贸易开放度与经济增长的长期关系,然后建立误差修正模型对两者之间的短期关系进行了刻画,重点考察了1978-2008年我国贸易开放度与经济增长在不同阶段的影响机制。经验分析结果表明,外商直接投资和贸易开放度对经济增长的短期效应大于长期效应;而人民币实际汇率对于经济增长的效应,则是长期效应大于短期效应。当外商直接投资、贸易开放度和人民币实际汇率造成的短期波动偏离长期的均衡时,经济增长能够通过自动调整趋于稳定。     

国际黄金价格波动特征及风险防范研究——基于GARCH族模型的实证分析

本文利用CARCH族模型对近年国际黄金价格的波动特征进行实证分析。研究结果显示,外部冲击对国际黄金价格的影响较为持续,而衰退过程缓慢。"后危机时代"国际黄金市场更多地呈现高风险,负向信息冲击对国际黄金价格的影响较大。长期来看,黄金价格主要呈现出上涨为主的杠杆效应,短期来看,下降杠杆趋势明显。     

基于 TCP/IP 的远程数字监控系统

根据美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的最新宣布,美国经济自2001年3月已经进入衰退。本文认为,美国此次衰退是难以避免的,这是经济周期的必然规律,由于此前虚拟经济与实体经济的发展脱离,形成泡沫,那些过剩的资本终究会退出,于是造成人们心理预期的过度反应,消费和投资需求出现大幅萎缩,而恐怖袭击事件则加速了衰退的进程。对中国而言,美国衰退的影响是利弊兼有,主要表现在出口、引资、经济格局等方面。     

次贷危机后港币与人民币一体化收益思考

2007年,美国次贷危机引发了新一轮全球金融危机。考虑美国经济由于金融危机爆发陷入衰退这一后果,通过外汇储备对中国可能造成的影响以及通过联系汇率制度对香港可能造成的影响,对港币人民币一体化的经济效益进行了再次分析,得出结论为:港币与人民币实行货币一体化的收益十分明显,人民币与港币的一体化是一种长期发展的必然趋势。     

广东省经济开放度与经济增长关系的实证研究

运用协整分析技术、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正模型,对广东省经济开放度与经济增长的长期均衡和短期波动进行实证分析,结果表明经济开放度各项指标与经济增长均存在正向的协整关系,GDP增长是其外资依存度和实际关税率提高的原因,而外贸依存度的提高促进了GDP的增长;经济增长与粤港贸易依存度互为因果关系,相互之间存在较强的协整关系;同时,各项指标具有较大的波动幅度,短期波动对长期均衡的回调速度也较大.因此,大力提高引进外资的质量和水平,转变对外贸易增长方式,推进区域经济合作的全面发展,是广东省外向型经济实现持续稳定增长的主要途径.     

金融改革应坚守基本原则 最优选择是封闭资本流动

短期看，资本流动放开会造成金融体系的波动，甚至有造成金融危机的可能，这一剂药可能太猛。长期看，由于美国是最大的国际硬通货提供者，如果中国盲目放开资本流动，受美国的货币政策影响的美元供应量会直接影响中国的金融系统和中国经济的稳定。因此，我们的最优选择是封闭资本流动。国际投资银行反复游说中国放开资本流动，是为了保证他们能在中国境内外进行资本的自由调度，以利于他们的资产组合投资的业务，其利益倾向显而易见。 同时，为了提高中国金融体系的效率，最重要的一步是要全面开放金融服务，欢迎国外金融机构以中国经济为大本营投资经营，而不是在中国境内进行资本调度从事短期套利。     

人民币实际有效汇率调整及其波动率与中美贸易收支

基于1995年1月至2007年9月的月度数据,分析了人民币实际有效汇率与中美贸易收支的关系。结果显示,人民币汇率波动率增加有助于缩小中美贸易收支顺差,人民币汇率升值无论长期或是短期,都不能解决中美双边贸易收支失衡问题。美国经济增长引致的进口需求是中美贸易顺差和我国收入增长的重要原因,在当前经济形势下,要警惕美国经济下滑导致我国的出口下降,进而使我国经济出现"硬着陆"的风险。     

如何应对即将全面爆发的欧债危机？

种种迹象表明,欧债危机可能在年底前全面爆发,由此引发的德法等国增发主权债务自救的行动,将导致金融市场大幅震荡,未来一年欧洲经济可能有较大衰退,但由此触发的改革有助于3年之后一个更加稳固的欧洲出现。与欧洲情况不同,美国的经济问题是长痛,势必长期困扰世界经济。     

The Economic Recovery Five Years after the Financial Crisis

The slow recovery from the recession that ended in 2009 has been the subject of much analysis and comment. However, has the recovery really been slower than expected given the magnitude of the recession, historical patterns, and long-term changes in the U.S. economy and labor force? It is contended here that when these factors are taken into account, the recovery is fairly typical of the post-1960 experience. This paper lays out this case, after providing an overview of the economy as of September 2013. It then turns to the factors underlying the long-term trend of declining labor force participation and concludes by offering implications for policy.     

企业核心能力生命周期的特性

核心能力在企业发展的过程中是动态发展的,并且存在一个从培育、形成、提高到再生或者衰退的生命周期过程。核心能力是企业取得长期竞争优势的源泉。因此,企业决策者在企业发展过程中必须对核心能力生命周期的各个阶段的特性予以清楚地了解,以便企业根据特性通过具体的运作来实现核心能力的维护和提升,从而达到核心能力持续成长的目的。     

The role of innovation in driving the economy: Lessons from the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis hit nearly every country in the world, devastating their economies, decimating the financial resources of their companies and citizens, and nearly collapsing the banking systems in their countries. While risky financial instruments and bad home lending practices receive much of the blame for this downturn, too few innovations introduced in the years leading up to the crisis also contribute to this collapse or, at a minimum, deepening the resulting recession. This paper draws on theoretical literature and contemporary media accounts, building the argument for a significant impact of innovations on the economy and its potential role in pulling the US economy out of the financial crisis. The paper develops propositions based on this review and discusses implications for staving off future economic difficulties.     

经济危机和信贷扩张背景下的通货膨胀风险测度研究

基于货币长期中性的假设,建立通货膨胀风险测度模型,并将全球经济危机和中国信贷扩张作为冲击因素引入模型,研究发现在经济危机造成的破坏不再恶化的情况下,中国将可能从2010年下半年开始出现明显的通货膨胀压力;如果经济危机造成的破坏超出预期,则从2010年开始,CPI指数将重新回到大于零的区间,但考虑到货币供应量冲击对通货膨胀的影响具有相当的滞后性,因此中国2009年信贷扩张的效应可能在2～3年后才会完全显现出来。     

The impact of economic downturns on marketing

The Great Recession of 2008–2010 affected the global and U.S. economies and its companies more universally than any economic downturn since the Great Depression. This study explores how the Great Recession influenced the marketing decisions of firms and the resulting long-term effects on marketing within business-to-business companies. Empirical evidence from previous recessions suggests that companies should focus on their customers and increase their marketing efforts during a recession. However, many companies typically slash their marketing budgets during economic downturns. Authors found that during the Great Recession, companies reacted differently than in previous recessions with their marketing responses. Authors conclude their analysis by proposing that the Great Recession will have three long-term effects on marketing in business-to-business companies.     

发达省域战略性新兴产业竞争研究

战略性新兴产业可分为强环境驱动型与弱环境驱动型、准先导型与准支柱型。在对各新兴产业作全国性比较的基础上,发现发达省域可兼顾比较优势、竞争优势与不确定性的要求来优化产业定位。发达省域遭遇世界长波衰退、世界能源危机、中国亚军危机、房地产泡沫、冲动性投资、低劳动收入等环境因素对新兴产业形成的内外"双轮夹击"。构建"软硬双驱"竞争优势模型,并由此指出发达省域战略性新兴产业竞争优势升级的路径。     

Evaluating and Comparing Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators

This article evaluates which economic indicators are the most useful for signaling recessions. The article uses a modified Markov switching method to compare the timing of recession signals across many indicators. In its present form, it is difficult to use the Markov switching methods for comparing recession signals across indicators. First, the regimes in the Markov switching method do not necessarily align with recession periods. Second, the definitions of the two regimes are likely to be different across indicators. However, if some modifications are made to the Markov switching method, the method can be helpful for comparing recession signals across indicators. This article shows that by converting Markov switching probabilities into percentiles, the Markov switching method can be useful in comparing the quality of recession signals across indicators. Using the method, hundreds of indicators are ranked based on their leading ability during different sample periods. Finally, the performance of the indicators during the current recession is evaluated.     

Export Intensification by Firms During Domestic Economic Recession

The present paper investigates the influence of an economic recession in the domestic market on the export marketing behavior of firms. The thesis of the paper is that firms intesify their export marketing efforts in order to overcome domestic adversity, a notion for which there is, at present, very little conclusive evidence. The paper presents findings from an empirical study, involving United States exporters during the 1980-82 recession, that suggest that a domestic recession is a significant export stimulant. Firms which are adversely affected by a recession are more likely than unaffected firms to intensify their exports. The paper also concludes that firms which intensify their exports in response to a recession are likely to exhibit a pronounced emphasis on more tactical and short-term export marketing activities. Finally, contrary to our expectation, the perceived benefits of export intensification during the recession were found to be inversely related to firms' export involvement.     

The Deeper the Recession,the Stronger the Recovery: Is It Really That Simple?

Are deep recessions typically followed by strong recoveries? This paper investigates this question. There is not a single standard definition for a deep recession or a strong recovery. Therefore, our first step is to define what constitutes a deep recession and a strong recovery. Next we examine whether there is any causal relationship between deep recessions and strong recoveries. Our analysis shows there is no relationship between the depth of a recession and the subsequent pace of economic recovery when we use Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Income, and employment as measures of recession and recovery. A modestly significant relationship does exist, however, between the magnitude of increases in the unemployment rate during a recession and decreases in the unemployment rate during the ensuing recovery.     

全球贸易衰退、价值链重构及中国出口价值链升级研究

2008年国际金融危机爆发后,全球贸易和价值链分工位次发生了明显的变化。发达经济体国内价值链出现收缩,发展中经济体国内价值链出现延伸,全球贸易一改之前的长期增长态势,转而出现了衰退。与此同时,新兴经济力量的崛起、贸易增加值分布格局的改变、微笑曲线的变化及全球价值链的本地化区域化收缩,都推动着全球价值链的重构。虽然全球贸易衰退会严重影响中国出口贸易转型升级,但全球价值链重构有助于中国企业打破低端锁定局面。在此背景下,应积极引导中国企业从低端锁定转向锁定高端,加快构建自贸区网络以推动中国贸易向边境内深化,并借助"一带一路"平台加快构建中国主导的全球价值链网络,从而实现中国出口价值链升级。