Regional integration,international liberalisation and the dynamics of industrial agglomeration

This paper presents a 3-region footloose-entrepreneur new economic geography model. Two symmetric regions are part of an economically integrated area (the Union), while the third region represents an outside trade partner. We explore how the spatial allocation of industrial production and employment within the Union is affected by changes in two aspects of trade liberalisation, regional integration and globalisation, conditional to the skill endowment and the market size of the outside region. Our main contribution pertains to the analysis of the local and global dynamics of the specified factor mobility process. We show that significant parameter ranges exist for which an asymmetric distribution of economic activities is one of the possible long-run outcomes which may allow a smooth transition to agglomeration (in contrast to the NEG typical catastrophic scenario). In addition, we show that multistability is pervasive and that some attractors are Milnor attractors. Both results reinforce the NEG narrative on the importance of initial conditions for the long-run location of industrial activity.     

Raising the bar (4)

This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in issue 11(4) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper deals with common factors and spatial dependence in the error term specification of a production function model. The second paper sets forth a New Economic Geography (NEG) model with production activities that vary in their complexity, so as to analyse the impact on specialization patterns across different regions. The third paper measures the efficiency of local public investments using a relatively unknown econometric technique in which the time span over which the variables in the regression equation are measured is increased by one time period every run. The fourth paper adopts a conditional quantile regression approach to determine the impact of people employed in informal jobs on the wage distribution in Colombia and five of its regions. Finally, the last paper proposes and tests two new Bayesian variable selection approaches for spatial econometric models.     

New Economic Geography and Reunified Germany at Twenty: A Fruitful Match?

Abstract

We qualitatively match new economic geography (NEG) to stylized facts on German economic integration after 1989. We find that NEG may explain German integration reasonably well. Germany may currently be close to the peak of the bell curve, which describes the long-run relationship between integration and agglomeration in Germany. As a consequence, further economic integration between the two parts of Germany may eventually foster redispersion of economic activity toward East Germany. We also identify limitations of NEG for explaining German integration, most notably the analytical complexity of multi-region models and its neglect of knowledge spillovers and labour pooling.

RÉSUMÉ Nous établissons une correspondance qualitative entre la nouvelle géographie économique (NEG) et des faits stylisés sur l'intégration économique allemande après 1989. Nous découvrons que la NEG permet d'expliquer raisonnablement bien l'intégration allemande. En fait, l'Allemagne est sans doute proche du sommet de la courbe en cloche, décrivant les rapports de longue durée entre l'intégration et l'agglomération en Allemagne. Donc, la poursuite de l'intégration économique entre les deux parties de l'Allemagne pourra favoriser une re-dispersion de l'activité économique envers l'Allemagne de l'Est. Néantmoins, nous identifions des limitations de la MEG pour expliquer l'intégration allemande, notamment la complexité analytique des modèles multirégionaux et la négligeance des retombées des connaissances (knowledge spillovers) et le groupement de la main-d'?uvre.

Extracto Emparejamos cualitativamente la Nueva Geografía Económica (NEG) con hechos estilizados de la integración económica alemana después de 1989. Descubrimos que la NEG puede explicar la integración alemana razonablemente bien. Actualmente, Alemania podría estar cerca de la cumbre de la curva de campana que describe la asociación a largo plazo entre integración y aglomeración en Alemania. En consecuencia, una mayor integración económica entre las dos partes de Alemania podría fomentar últimamente la re-dispersión de actividad económica hacia la Alemania del Este. Además identificamos limitaciones de la NEG para explicar la integración alemana, consistiendo principalmente en la complejidad analítica de los modelos multirregionales y en su preterición de los desbordamientos de conocimiento (knowledge spillovers) y de la concentración de mano de obra cualificada (labour pooling).

摘要:我们将新经济地理(NEG)和1989年德国经济统一后的典型事实进行定性比较。我们发现NEG可以很好地解释德国统一。德国现在非常接近钟形曲线的峰值, 意味着德国经济会长期呈现融合和聚集并存。因此, 东西德之间进一步的经济融合将最终促进经济活动流向东德。我们还找出了用NEG解释德国统一的局限性,尤其是多区域模型分析的复杂性以及对人才流失和劳动力储备的忽略。     

Relaxing Hukou: Increased labor mobility and China’s economic geography

China’s Hukou system poses severe restrictions on labor mobility. This paper assesses the possible consequences of relaxing these restrictions for China’s internal economic geography. We base our analysis on a new economic geography (NEG) model. First, we estimate the important model parameters using data on 264 of China’s prefecture cities. Second, we use these estimates as inputs in a simulation of the full NEG model under different labor mobility regimes. We find that increased labor mobility leads to more pronounced core–periphery outcomes. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chongqing in particular will further strengthen their dominant place in China’s urban hierarchy. In addition, two other groups of cities can be distinguished: those in China’s populous heartland offering preferential access to China’s enormous internal market, and more peripheral cities that are better shielded from competition with China’s economic heartland by virtue of their relative remoteness.     

TRADE AND FACTOR FLOWS IN A DIVERSE EU: WHAT LESSONS FOR THE EASTERN ENLARGEMENT(S)?

Abstract.  This paper reviews the neoclassical and new economic geography (NEG) theoretical frameworks used to analyse the effects of integration on trade and factor flows, and the empirical work carried out within those theoretical frameworks for the European case. The European Union (EU) is of particular interest because it is illustrative of the tensions between deepening of the integration process and widening membership: whereas deepening requires homogeneity, widening has made the EU increasingly diverse. The orthodox framework saw trade and factor flows as substitutes, thus separating their analysis, and was mainly concerned with efficiency issues of trade integration. The NEG framework saw trade and factor flows as complements, and analysed them jointly, looking mainly at distribution issues such as disparities in industry location and wages arising from a single market for goods and factors. The main lesson for the Eastern enlargement(s) is that integration in its various forms leads to an uneven distribution of gains across member countries when these have very diverse economic structures.     

The Role of Human Capital,Market Potential and Natural Amenities in Understanding Spatial Wage Disparities in Chile

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical framework for analysing spatial wage inequality in Chile. Chile is primarily characterized by two stylized facts: the high spatial concentration around the metropolitan area and the key role of natural resources in the country. The paper considers both elements in a competition between NEG (new economic geography) and a theory based on natural resource endowment, with both theories incorporating human capital via a multilevel analysis. The results show the poor performance of NEG for Chile and indicate that natural resources are the principal cause of spatial wage variability in Chile.

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication illustre un cadre d'analyse empirique de l'inégalité spatiale entre les salaires, au Chili. Le Chili est caractérisé principalement par les deux faits stylisés suivants : une concentration spatiale élevée autour de la zone métropolitaine, et le rôle essentiel que jouent les ressources naturelles dans ce pays. Cette communication se penche sur ces deux éléments dans le cadre d'une compétition entre deux théories : d'une part la nouvelle géographie économique (« NEG »), de l'autre une théorie fondée sur la dotation en ressources naturelles, ces deux théories incorporant le capital humain par le biais d'une analyse à multiples niveaux. Les résultats démontrent les mauvais résultats de NEG pour le Chili, et indiquent que les ressources naturelles sont la principale cause de la variabilité spatiale des salaires au Chili.

EXTRACTO Este estudio presenta un marco empírico para analizar la desigualdad espacial de los salarios en Chile. Chile se caracteriza principalmente por dos hechos estilizados: la alta concentración espacial alrededor del área metropolitana y la función clave de los recursos naturales del país. El estudio considera ambos elementos en una competición entre la NEG (Nueva Geografía Económica) y una teoría basada en el legado de recursos naturales, donde ambas teorías incorporan el capital humano a través de un análisis de múltiples niveles. Los resultados muestran un bajo rendimiento de la NEG en relación con Chile e indican que los recursos naturales son la causa principal de la variabilidad espacial de los salarios en Chile.

摘要: 本文提出了一种分析智利区域工资不均的经验框架。智利主要有两大特点: 大城市地区高度空间聚集和农村地区自然资源作用巨大。本文在对NEG (新经济地理学) 和基于自然资源储藏量的理论进行比较时, 考虑了这两个因素, 同时还通过多层次分析纳入了人力资源因素。结果显示智利NEG性能很差, 表明智利区域工资差异的主要原因是自然资源。     

Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation

The increase in the price of gold between 2002 and 2011 appears to be a candidate for a potential asset price ‘bubble’, suggesting that chartists (feedback traders) were highly active in the gold market during this period. Hence, this paper develops and tests empirically several models incorporating heterogeneous expectations of agents, specifically fundamentalists and chartists, for the gold market. The empirical results show that both agent types are important in explaining historical gold prices but that the 10-year bull run of gold in the early 2000s is consistent with the presence of agents extrapolating long-term trends. Technically this paper is a further step toward providing an empirical foundation for certain assumptions used in the heterogeneous agents literature. For example, the empirical results presented in this paper compare the economical and statistical significance of numerous switching variable specifications that are generally only introduced ad hoc.     

Sustainability concerns in luxury supply chains: European brand strategies and French consumer expectations

Sustainability in supply chain management has become a concern in both research and practice. Although consumption and purchasing have been significantly explored in the luxury sector, a gap in supply chain studies is still evident. Therefore, the aim of this article is to examine how industry bodies and supply chain partners address sustainability concerns in the European luxury sector and how they respond to consumer expectations. In an explanatory study, we have collected data about sustainable supply chain practices in 11 European luxury good companies, by interviewing and surveying 13 managers. In a first consumer study, we held interviews with French luxury consumers in Bordeaux about their sustainability expectations (N = 170). The results show that while the distribution of attention is dependent on the respective supply chain activities, luxury goods companies address sustainability concerns and aim to take responsibility for their activities. However, the emphasis is on the dimension of economic sustainability. A comparison with sustainability expectations of French luxury goods consumers suggests that business practices are not perfectly well aligned with these expectations. Consumers put more emphasis on social and environmental sustainability dimensions. On the other hand, business activities concerning waste reduction and raw material management rather well match consumer expectations.     

Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model

This paper proposes an extension to Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models to capture time-varying interdependence among financial variables. Government bond spreads in the euro area feature a time-varying pattern of co-movement that poses a serious challenge for econometric modelling and forecasting. This pattern of the data is not captured by the standard specification that model spreads as persistent processes reverting to a time-varying mean determined by two factors: a local factor, driven by fiscal fundamentals and growth, and a global world factor, driven by the market’s appetite for risk. This paper argues that a third factor, expectations of exchange rate devaluation, gained traction during the crises. This factor is well captured via a GVAR that models the interdependence among spreads by making each country’s spread function of global European spreads. Global spreads capture the exposure of each country’s spread to other spreads in the euro area in terms of the time-varying ‘distance’ between their fiscal fundamentals. This new specification dominates the standard one in modelling the time-varying pattern of co-movements among spreads and the response of euro area spreads to the Greek debt crisis.     

COMMON SEASONAL FEATURES: GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Seasonal patterns in economic time series are generally examined from a univariate point of view. Using extensions of the unit root literature, important classes of seasonal processes are deterministic, stationary stochastic or mean reverting, and unit root stochastic. Time series tests have been developed for each of these. This paper examines seasonality in a multivariate context. Systems of economic variables can have trends, cycles and unit roots as well as the various types of seasonality. Restrictions such as cointegration and common cycles are here applied also to examine multivariate seasonal behaviour of economic variables. If each of a collection of series has a certain type of seasonality but a linear combination of these series can be found without seasonality, then the seasonal is said to be ‘common’. New tests are developed to determine if seasonal characteristics are common to a set of time series. These tests can be employed in the presence of various other time series structures. The analysis is applied to OECD data on unemployment for the period 1975.1 to 1993.4, and it is found that four diverse countries (Australia, Canada, Japan and USA) not only have common trends in their unemployment, but also have common deterministic seasonal features and a common cycle/stochastic seasonal feature. Such a collection of characteristics were not found in other groups of OECD countries.     

The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011. Since then, however, they respond significantly to macroeconomic news. Our results obtained from multiple endogenous break point tests suggest that euro area inflation expectations have remained de-anchored ever since.     

The role of beliefs in inference for rational expectations models

This paper discusses inference for rational expectations models estimated via minimum distance methods by characterizing the probability beliefs regarding the data generating process (DGP) that are compatible with given moment conditions. The null hypothesis is taken to be rational expectations and the alternative hypothesis to be distorted beliefs. This distorted beliefs alternative is analyzed from the perspective of a hypothetical semiparametric Bayesian who believes the model and uses it to learn about the DGP. This interpretation provides a different perspective on estimates, test statistics, and confidence regions in large samples, particularly regarding the economic significance of rejections in rational expectations models. A suggestive application to the equity premium puzzle is examined.     

Beyond portfolio entrepreneurship: multiple income sources in small firms

The economic activities of entrepreneurs are not confined to the ownership of a single firm, but encompass income generation from a variety of sources including wage labour, non-earned income and profit from secondary business ventures. This paper investigates the multiple income sources of a sample of 18 561 business owners in the UK. A latent class analysis revealed seven different groups of entrepreneurs differentiated by their degree of engagement in enterprise ownership and income generation. The results demonstrate the importance of multiple income sources in smaller firms and challenge previous assumptions that portfolio activities are expedited solely as a profit maximization strategy by growth-seeking entrepreneurs. While some use portfolio activities for the purpose of wealth accumulation, others use them as a survival mechanism. The results also highlight time variations in the use of portfolio activities. For some business owners, they are a long-term and relatively stable strategy contributing towards either the economic survival of marginal ventures or the development of high growth enterprises. For others, they are a time-limited strategy facilitating business entry or exit.     

基于伯川德推测变差的有限理性动态寡头博弈的复杂性

本文在具有伯川德推测变差的推测变差模型的基础上,引入参与人的基本有限理性的动态产量调整行为,构建出动态调整系统,论证了企业调整速度在稳定域内时,静态伯川德推测变差均衡仍可作为稳定的动态均衡而实现。并用数值仿真的方法说明了当企业的产量调整速度不在稳定域内时,经济系统将会出现倍周期分岔或混沌等复杂动态。     

Trend inflation,sticky prices,and expectational stability

Micro evidence indicates that each period a fraction of prices is kept unchanged under a positive trend inflation rate. In a sticky price model based on this evidence, recent research shows that high trend inflation is a serious cause for indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibrium under the Taylor rule. This paper examines implications of trend inflation for expectational stability of the equilibrium. An empirically plausible calibration of the model demonstrates that a fundamental rational expectations equilibrium is likely to be expectationally stable even in cases of indeterminacy induced by high trend inflation.     

Australia's regional innovation systems: inter-industry interaction in innovative activities in three Australian territories

Regional specifics reveal in differences in economic activity and structure, the institutional, socio-economic and cultural environment and not least in the capability of regions to create new knowledge and to generate innovations. Focusing on the regional level, this paper for three Australian territories (New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland) explores patterns of innovative activities in their private business sectors. Furthermore, these patterns are compared to specifics of each region's economic structure. We make use of input–output-based innovation flow networks, which are directed and weighted instead of binary. The value added of the proposed analysis is that we are able to trace a variety of different aspects related to the structure of innovative activities for each territory. It gets evident that mostly innovative activities in each territory are not strong in ‘niche’ branches but in fields of intense economic activity, signalising the high path-dependency of innovative activities in a specific geographical environment.     

A note on sufficient conditions for D-stability

In this note we shall present some sufficient conditions for D-stability on the basis of fundamental property of matrices with quasi-dominant diagonal blocks and, as an economic application, the ta?tonnement process with adaptive expectations [Arrow and Nerlove (1958)] is shown to be totally stable in the small.     

The EU and the Caspian Sea region: An energy partnership?

This paper explores the scope to foster European Union (EU) energy security through stable long-run economic relations with the Caspian Sea region. It is part of a longer-run research programme focusing on the following issues: what are the determinants of the EU long-term energy interests in the Caspian Sea region, and how far does genuine security depend not only on diversifying energy sources geographically but also on stable political and economic structures in the energy-exporting states? An important motivation of this paper is to identify factors relevant to internal and external stability in the Caspian region to assess the impact of current policies and to elucidate policy options that can help increase EU energy security.     

Which Corporate Sustainability Activities are Associated with Greater Financial Payoffs?

While many company managers and academic researchers have argued that businesses that develop a sustainability focus also may improve their financial performance, little information is known about whether firms' different types of sustainability activities are related to varying degrees of financial gain. This paper assesses the economic relationship between two types of sustainability activities – lower‐ and higher‐order – derived from the sustainability value framework of Hart and Milstein (2003). Our analysis reveals that both types of sustainability activities are similarly associated with firms' financial performance in terms of direction and trend. However, the average level of financial benefits related to firms' higher‐order sustainability activities (which develop new products and processes) is greater than the average level of financial benefits related to firms' lower‐order sustainability activities (which modify existing products and processes). These findings offer initial evidence that companies that reach further by developing higher‐order sustainability activities may reap greater financial benefits, while improving the natural environment to a greater degree. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

基于分岔理论的企业供应链管理系统再造

人类进入新世纪,经济全球化的趋势在不断发展,资源在全球范围内的流动和配置大大加强,作为市场竞争主体的企业,必须与时俱进,开拓创新,要在总结实践创新的基础上,坚持观念创新、管理创新和科技创新.本文将利用现在自然科学界最流行的分岔理论来研究现在社会科学界最流行的供应链管理,从分岔发生的三个必备条件出发,提出现有企业供应链管理系统中出现的问题,然后结合分岔现象发生的三个条件提出企业供应链管理系统再造方案.