后疫情时期新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济影响的量化模拟分析

本文着眼于后疫情时期新冠肺炎疫情爆发的不同阶段,运用全球贸易分析模型,从新冠大流行时疫情冲击我国经济的路径出发,评估后疫情时期新冠肺炎疫情与经济之间的权衡,分析后疫情时期疫情发展的不同规模对我国GDP、进出口贸易、贸易条件、福利以及部门产出的影响。研究发现:(1)在后疫情时期,疫情的长期持续小规模爆发对宏观经济的破坏效应更明显,若疫情长期内持续小规模流行,我国的GDP、进出口贸易、居民福利以及部门产出均受到明显冲击;(2)在后疫情时期,疫情的短期偶然性爆发并不会对我国的GDP、福利、贸易条件以及部门产出产生明显的负面冲击,这主要是经济发展韧性抵消了疫情的短期负向影响。     

新兴产业对经济发展的时变性影响——来自京津冀地区的经验分析

本文建立了带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-VAR）,以京津冀地区为研究对象,分析了不同时期新兴产业发展对地区生产总值、财政收入以及就业的影响。研究结果发现：（1）新常态时期新兴产业的发展对京津冀经济状况的影响程度大于在全球经济危机时期和经济高速发展时期的影响程度,但在大部分时期新兴产业的发展都只会对京津冀的经济状况产生负向效应;（2）如果经济增长是首要经济目标,天津应该加强新兴产业的发展,如果就业是首要经济目标,河北应该加强新兴产业的发展。     

Activating salesperson resilience during the COVID-19 crisis: The roles of employer event communication and customer demandingness

Business-to-business (B2B) sales sector is among the business sectors severely affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. It is critical to understand how to help the workforce in the B2B sales sector grow resilient through such a crisis. The main aim of this study is to examine the role of employer event communication in fostering B2B salesperson resilience. The data were collected from 447 sales employees from manufacturing firms in an Asian emerging market during the pandemic crisis. The results revealed the positive link between employer event communication and salesperson resilience. Deliberate rumination was detected as a mediator for the relationship between employer event communication and resilience. However, while the significant and negative association was observed between employer event communication and intrusive rumination, the non-significant relationship occurred between intrusive rumination and resilience. Customer demandingness moderated the effects of intrusive and deliberate rumination on salesperson resilience. Discussions on theoretical and practical implications are displayed.     

我国“一带一路”基础设施投资效率对经济增长方式转变的空间效应分析

基础设施投资效率是有效实施供给侧改革以及顺利进行“一带一路”战略工作的根基,是经济增长方式转型升级中重点关注和解决的问题。本文基于2003～2014年的面板数据,借助DEA方法和空间杜宾模型,对比分析全国与“一带一路”国内段沿线地区硬软性基础设施投资效率及其对转变经济增长方式的本地效应与空间溢出效应。研究结果表明：“一带”的硬性基础设施投资,“一路”的软性基础设施投资呈现较高的技术效率水平;区域经济增长方式转变呈鲜明的空间依赖性;与全国比较,硬软性基础设施投资效率对“一带一路”的经济增长方式转变具有显著的促进作用。硬性基础设施投资效率对“一带”沿线的效应较大,尤其是对西北地区产生的本地和溢出效应最大;软性基础设施投资效率最明显促进“一路”沿线的集约化水平及带来显著的积极外溢效应。     

What did unions do for union workers during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This research examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour market outcomes of union workers, based on nationally representative data. I employ the difference-in-difference estimation to identify the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment, labour earnings and other labour market outcomes of union workers, relative to non-union workers. I find that, compared to non-union workers, union workers experienced greater job security, and the pre-pandemic union wage premium remained largely unchanged during the pandemic. There exists a large heterogeneity in the union effect on employment and real wages by worker characteristic. I also find that union workers, compared to non-union workers, were less likely to work remotely but more likely to receive pay for hours not worked due to COVID-19. The results suggest that unions provided workers with employment stability and an economic buffer during the pandemic-led recession.     

承接东部产业转移对陕西技术溢出效应的实证分析

根据产业转移理论,承接产业转移、引进外省资金,能够促进承接地经济的增长、优化当地产业结构、带动技术的进步、增加劳动力就业等作用。本文根据C—D生产函数建立衡量技术溢出效应的数学模型,并进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,外省市直接投资对陕西技术进步存在正负效应,正效应在于促进经济的增长,而对陕西技术进步的促进存在负效应,没能引起技术进步的提高,原因可能在于注重引资的数量,忽视引资的层次和质量。     

Race to the top: Does competition in the DSL market matter for fibre penetration?

High speed broadband creates potential productivity gains and has a positive impact on economic growth. Achieving Europe's broadband access objectives will require large scale investment in next generation broadband networks, and it is imperative that an appropriate investment climate is created to encourage fibre network rollout. This study considers whether and how competition in the DSL market affects the incentives of operators to invest in the deployment of high-end fibre optic networks. Most earlier research on the drivers of investment in broadband technology has focused on the effect of mandatory access policies, such as local loop unbundling, or competing infrastructures. We posit that competition in the DSL sector may also influence fibre penetration, possibly to a considerable extent. We find that the relationship between service-based competition and fibre penetration is non-linear: a lack of or severe DSL competition is correlated with a negative effect on fibre penetration, but if a moderate degree of competition is already present in the market, more service-based competition may positively influence fibre penetration. The scale of these effects however varies with the openness of the DSL market: operators' incentives to invest in fibre appear to be more sensitive to changes in DSL competition if there is extensive local loop unbundling.     

Mehr Sozialprodukt mit weniger Energie: Es gibt nichts umsonst!

Economic growth guarantees prosperity and employment. In the interest of climate protection Germany is also aiming to significantly reduce its energy consumption. The Federal Government is committed to increase the real gross domestic product by 26 % between 2006 and 2020 and to reduce primary energy consumption in the same period by 17 %. Although long-term economic growth is possible with falling energy consumption, it does imply changes: structural changes and investments, which will initially require funding. In a simple model, it can be shown that the government’s ?hyper-decoupling“ of economic growth from energy demand will lead to an increase in the overall expenditure resulting from energy consumption between 2006 and 2020 of more than 60 % (the optimistic scenario) or 150 % (the less optimistic scenario). The accelerated use of modern energy technologies can help to set in motion the desired process to protect the environment and, at the same time, limit the resulting burden on the consumer. Here the intensified support of research and development of modern technologies will play an important role.     

Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures,economic growth and development in Africa: Panel vector autoregression (P-VAR) analysis

This study examines the causal-effect relationship between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in selected African countries. It further estimates the trivariate impacts of telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in the region. The analysis considers a panel of forty-six African countries from 2000 to 2015. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product serves as the proxy, while economic development is measured by the Human Development Index, and telecommunication infrastructures by a composite index of telecommunication computed from mobile line, fixed line and internet access penetration via principal component analysis (PCA). The empirical results suggest the existence of a bidirectional long-run relationship between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development. The causality tests reveal that there is feedback causality between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development. Telecommunication infrastructures promote economic growth and development in Africa and vice versa. Thus, there is need to promote inclusive and holistic policies that will enhance digital provide, economic growth and development simultaneously in Africa. An increase in telecommunication infrastructures will encourage aggregate output and standard of living to move in the same direction in Africa.     

基于时间序列单方向因果测度的多国电子信息产业经济发展分析

通过主体对比法研究中、美、日3国电子信息产业的发展历程,从中寻找对中国电子信息发展的启示。以专利产出对产业经济的影响为研究点,利用计量经济学方法探究了多个专利指标与经济指标在宏观动态经济系统中的内稳态关系。基于协整和误差修正概念建立向量自回归模型,将时间序列计量方法应用于产业经济状况分析,在Granger因果测度条件下,利用多变量时间序列的单方向因果测度,定量描述专利发展对电子信息产业经济的FMO,OMO值。得出以下结论:授权数与GDP在Granger理论意义上存在弱因果关系;发明占比与GDP存在双向的因果关系;专利数量和发明占比对GDP的OMO值为0.450,两者存在内生联系,对经济发展具有协同作用。     

碳排放规制对就业影响研究--基于省级面板数据的分析

为明确碳排放规制的就业效应,本文基于中国2000~2019年30个省级行政单位的面板数据,利用固定效应模型以及中介效应模型实证分析了碳排放规制对就业的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,碳排放规制能够促进就业,并且通过稳健性检验。进一步分析发现,碳排放规制对就业的影响机制中存在产业结构升级和技术创新效应。同时,在高收入和低收入地区碳排放规制能够促进就业,而在中等收入地区碳排放规制抑制就业。因此,为地方政府制定差异性碳排放规制政策,加快产业结构升级和技术创新,促进就业提供有益的政策启示。     

基于ESDA方法与空间计量模型的房价溢出效应分析

一个地区房价的波动可以通过时间滞后传递到其他地区,从而产生房价溢出效应。本文以我国31个省际区域2005～2014年的数据为样本,运用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）对31个省的房价空间分布格局及演变态势进行分析。然后运用空间计量模型分析我国省际房价变动的影响因素,并从地理因素和经济因素两个方面研究房价溢出效应。研究结果表明：中国31个省域间的房价存在明显的空间相关性;地区的城市化率、城镇就业人员平均货币工资、二、三产业产值占GDP比重对房价有显著的影响,房价存在显著的空间溢出效应,经济距离对地区房价影响比地理距离的影响更显著。     

Broadband adoption and availability: Impacts on rural employment during COVID-19

Amidst COVID-19-related stay-at-home orders, the economy moved largely online and broadband internet became more important than ever. This paper explores the relationship between broadband and employment rates during April and May 2020 in rural U.S. counties. We use two broadband dimensions: infrastructure availability rates and household adoption rates. We use a two-stage least squares approach to address endogeneity and control for socioeconomic, demographic, and pandemic-related factors. Results show broadband availability and wired broadband adoption both had significant, positive impacts on the employment rate. Our findings suggest both broadband adoption and availability may be associated with economic benefits in rural America.     

Labor Market Conditions and the Economic Status of Black Men: A Note

I study the effects of local employment to population ratios on the relative position of blacks to evaluate whether tight labor markets reduce the differences in economic status between young blacks and whites. I find evidence that blacks receive greater employment advantages than whites in tight labor markets, but the effect is small. Blacks with 12 or fewer years of education experience higher earnings in tight labor markets, but this effect is also small.     

Foreign direct investment,information technology and economic growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa

The research assesses how information and communication technology (ICT) modulates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth dynamics in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980–2014. The employed economic growth dynamics are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita while ICT is measured by mobile phone penetration and internet penetration. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The study finds that both internet penetration and mobile phone penetration overwhelmingly modulate FDI to induce overall positive net effects on all three economic growth dynamics. Moreover, the positive net effects are consistently more apparent in internet-centric regressions compared to “mobile phone”-oriented specifications. In the light of negative interactive effects, net effects are decomposed to provide thresholds at which ICT policy variables should be complemented with other policy initiatives in order to engender favourable outcomes on economic growth dynamics. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.     

Public private partnerships as a tool for stimulating investments in broadband

The paper is concerned with PPP in the telecommunications area and more specifically with the combination of public and private investments in upgrading broadband infrastructures. Following the liberalization of the telecommunications area, investments were primarily left to the private sector – though public investments have continued to take place in specific areas such as research and education networks and rural and otherwise underserved areas. Lately, however, governments have upgraded their public investment plans in broadband infrastructures. The question is whether we are witnessing a simple quantitative change or whether this quantitative change includes a qualitative evolvement in the view on the role of the public sector in expanding broadband infrastructures. At the present time, the most likely answer is that increasing public investments in broadband infrastructures signal a combination of concerns raised by the economic crisis and the growing awareness of the social and economic importance of efficient broadband infrastructures.     

外部性与产业增长——来自中国省级面板数据的研究

本文利用我国29个省、市、自治区25个产业的面板数据研究了外部性对于地区产业增长的影响,结果发现:在全国样本范围内,专业化水平与产业增长之间存在着负向关系;竞争程度与地区产业增长之间存在着正向关系;多样化程度与产业增长之间存在着一种非线性关系,当多样化程度较低时,多样化不利于产业增长,而当多样化水平较高时,多样化则会促进产业增长。在分地区分产业的分析中,产业多样化水平对经济增长的作用在很大程度上取决于产业的性质(高度规模经济产业或低度规模经济产业)及产业的地理区位(沿海地区或内陆地区)。     

International migration and nutritional outcomes in Tajikistan

Tajikistan is the country with the largest share of remittances to GDP in the world. At the same time it suffers from stubbornly high levels of child malnutrition against which only very slow progress has been made. This paper investigates the relationship between international migration and child malnutrition, using data from a recent nationally representative household survey. There are theoretical reasons to expect that migration may be exerting both positive and negative effects on nutrition and food security, so that understanding what the net effect may be is essentially an empirical question. Our results indicate that migration appears to be playing a positive role in enhancing child growth patterns (as measured by height-for-age z-scores) in the country. We explore some of the possible channels through which this effect might be operating and find that one such channel is by increasing households’ kilocalorie consumption.     

ICT investment and GDP growth: Causality analysis for the case of Korea

This study investigated how investment in the industry of Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) has been interlocked with the GDP growth of South Korea. Based on seasonally-adjusted quarterly time-series data for the period between 1999 and 2016 available from the Korea Statistical Information Service, a Vector Error Correction model was applied for the analysis. The results revealed that ICT investment and GDP growth affected bi-directionally except for the short-run case in which only ICT investment affected GDP growth. The results explain that ICT investment plays an important role in the economic growth of South Korea in the long term; at the same time, investment size in the ICT industry increases as the economy grows. Without controlling any other factors, we found GDP increases by 0.4% when ICT investment increases by 1%. However, in the short term, only ICT leads to GDP growth. Therefore, the recent stagnation in ICT investment experienced in South Korea could negatively affect the economic growth of Korea in the short run, and hence, in the long-run, if it should become prolonged. The ICT investment strategy revealed from this study is especially useful to policy-makers who plan the economic growth in South Korea and other ICT-advanced countries because promoting ICT utilization across all sectors requires putting legal and policy mechanisms in place.