Infrequent Rebalancing,Return Autocorrelation,and Seasonality

A model of infrequent rebalancing can explain specific predictability patterns in the time series and cross‐section of stock returns. First, infrequent rebalancing produces return autocorrelations that are consistent with empirical evidence from intraday returns and new evidence from daily returns. Autocorrelations can switch sign and become positive at the rebalancing horizon. Second, the cross‐sectional variance in expected returns is larger when more traders rebalance. This effect generates seasonality in the cross‐section of stock returns, which can help explain available empirical evidence.     

On the Origins of Risk‐Taking in Financial Markets

Financial investment behavior is highly correlated between parents and their children. Using Swedish data, we find that the decision of adoptees to hold equities is associated with the behavior of both biological and adoptive parents, implying a role for both genetic and environmental influences. However, we find that nurture has a stronger influence on the share of financial assets invested in equities and on portfolio volatility, suggesting that financial risk‐taking is substantially environmentally determined. The parental investment variables substantially increase the explanatory power of cross‐sectional regressions and so may play an important role in understanding cross‐sectional heterogeneity in investment behavior.     

Short‐Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets

This study measures the degree of short‐horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple‐horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross‐sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita gross domestic product, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short‐selling restrictions are correlated with cross‐market variations in return predictability.     

Investment and the Cross‐Section of Equity Returns

The data show that, upon being hit by adverse profitability shocks, large public firms have ample latitude to divest their least productive assets, reducing the risk faced by shareholders and the returns that they are likely to demand. In the one‐factor production‐based asset pricing model, when the frictions to capital adjustment are shaped to respect the evidence on investment, the model‐generated cross‐sectional dispersion of returns is only a small fraction of that documented in the data. Our conclusions hold even when operating or labor leverage is modeled in ways shown to be promising in the extant literature.     

Estimating Portfolio and Consumption Choice: A Conditional Euler Equations Approach

This paper develops a nonparametric approach to examine how portfolio and consumption choice depends on variables that forecast time-varying investment opportunities. I estimate single-period and multiperiod portfolio and consumption rules of an investor with constant relative risk aversion and a one-month to 20-year horizon. The investor allocates wealth to the NYSE index and a 30-day Treasury bill. I find that the portfolio choice varies significantly with the dividend yield, default premium, term premium, and lagged excess return. Furthermore, the optimal decisions depend on the investor's horizon and rebalancing frequency.     

Investment Horizon Effects

Abstract:   Boudry and Gray (2003) have documented that the optimal buy‐and‐hold demand for Australian stocks is not necessarily increasing in the investment horizon when returns are predictable. Such finding is in contrast with Barberis (2000) who shows that positive monotonic horizon effects predominate for US stocks. Using a closed‐form approximation to the asset allocation problem, this paper relates the return dynamics to the investor's portfolio choice for different investment horizons. In the special case of a single risky asset, it is shown that return predictability under stationarity may induce both positive and negative horizon effects in the optimal allocation to the risky asset. The paper extends previous empirical results by solving for the optimal portfolio when two risky assets with predictable returns are available for investment.     

Asset Pricing with Dynamic Margin Constraints

This paper provides a novel theoretical analysis of how endogenous time‐varying margin requirements affect capital market equilibrium. I find that margin requirements, when there are no other market frictions, reduce the volatility and correlation of returns as well as the risk‐free rate, but increase the market price of risk, the risk premium, and the price of risky assets. Furthermore, margin requirements generate a strong cross‐sectional dispersion of stock return volatilities. The results emphasize that a general equilibrium analysis may reverse the conclusions of a partial equilibrium analysis often employed in the literature.     

新常态下的居民投资理财研究——基于均值-方差模型下的大类资产配置

随着《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》的落地,我国资产管理行业的发展进入了新常态。我国居民的投资期限及投资工具将发生明显变化,包括:产品投资期限可能大幅延长;投资工具的主要形态将由传统的预期收益型理财产品转化为净值型产品。本文重点探讨在行业管理新规的新常态下,居民如何通过合理的大类资产配置实现有效投资。本文在均值-方差模型(Mean-Variance Model)的基础上,结合过去12年我国股票、债券、货币、黄金和国债五大类资产的投资数据,构建有效边界(Efficient Frontier),并在此基础上寻得夏普比率(Sharpe Ratio)最高的风险资产组合,进而绘制资本市场线(Capital Market Line)。通过对资本市场线及有效边界上若干组合的实证检验,本文发现:通过对大类资产的合理组合,可以为投资者带来长期稳定的投资回报;因流动性需求,投资者进行中短期投资时,低预期收益目标的投资组合表现更优。     

Conditions for Myopic Valuation and Serial Independence of the Market Excess Return in Discrete Time Models

In a multiperiod pure exchange world with investors displaying HARA-preferences, conditions for period-by-period application of one-period asset pricing models are derived first. The future investment opportunity set may be uncertain, provided that in every period a specific market portfolio variable depending on preferences is known as of the preceding date. This variable need not be completely deterministic. Second, conditions for a serially independent market excess return are derived. These conditions render serial independence very unlikely. Hence estimation methods assuming serial independence are likely to yield biased results.     

Tests of the multiperiod two-parameter model

Although investors face multiperiod decision problems, there are conditions under which the results of the one-period two-parameter model apply period by period. In addition to the assumptions made in the development of the two-parameter model itself (a perfect capital market, investor risk aversion, and normal distributions of one-period portfolio returns), the critical assumption in a multiperiod context is that, for any t, returns on portfolio assets from t?1 to t are independent of stochastic elements of the state-of-the-world at time t that affect investor tastes for given levels of wealth to be obtained at t.One such element of the state-of-the-world is the nature of investment opportunities to be available at t. For example, if the level of expected returns on investment portfolios to be available at time t is uncertain at time t?1, and if the returns from t?1 to t on some investment assets are more strongly related to the level of expected returns at t than returns on other assets, then the former assets are better vehicles for hedging against the level of expected returns at t. This can affect the demands for assets and their prices in such a way that the simple results of the one-period two-parameter model do not hold.The empirical tests of this paper reveal no evidence of measurable relationships between the returns on portfolio assets from t?1 to t and the level of expected returns to be available at t. Indeed, in our opinion there is no reliable evidence that the level of expected returns changed during the 1953–1972 period.     

Foreign competition and the durability of US firm investments

How does the exposure to product market competition affect the investment horizon of firms? We study if firms have an incentive to shift investments toward more short‐term assets when exposed to tougher competition. Based on a stylized firm investment model, we derive a within‐firm estimator using variation across investments with different durabilities. Exploiting the Chinese World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we estimate the effects of product market competition on the composition of US firm investments. Firms that experienced tougher competition shifted their expenditures toward investments with a shorter durability. This effect is larger for firms with lower total factor productivity.     

Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for SEO Event Studies and Long-Run Performance

We present a rational theory of SEOs that explains a pre‐issuance price run‐up, a negative announcement effect, and long‐run post‐issuance underperformance. When SEOs finance investment in a real options framework, expected returns decrease endogenously because growth options are converted into assets in place. Regardless of their risk, the new assets are less risky than the options they replace. Although both size and book‐to‐market effects are present, standard matching procedures fail to fully capture the dynamics of risk and expected return. We calibrate the model and show that it closely matches the primary features of SEO return dynamics.     

我国投资银行业市场结构、规模与绩效实证研究

本文的实证研究表明,市场结构、行业规模以及市场整体收益率对我国投资银行业的利润率有着很强的解释能力,三个因素对于净资产收益率的解释能力超过98%。从影响的相对水平来看,集中度的影响要大于市场收益的影响,规模的影响与集中度、市场收益的影响相反。进一步研究还表明,尽管行业资产规模与净资产收益率的时间序列显示随着行业资产规模的增加,我国证券公司的净资产收益率呈现出不断下降的特征,但这并不意味着我国投资银行业是规模不经济的。有关规模经济的横截面分析数据表明,现阶段我国证券公司的规模与其绩效之间并不存在着明显的关系,既没有显示出规模不经济,也没有显示出规模经济。     

Accounting of the German Statutory Pension Scheme: Balance Sheet,Cross‐Sectional Internal Rate of Return and Implicit Tax Rate

We present a framework for accounting of the German statutory pension scheme and calculate a balance sheet for the period 2005–14. Estimating a funding ratio of about 90 per cent, we present some policy recommendations in order to restore balancing of assets and liabilities. Extending and applying the methodology proposed by Settergren and Mikula (2005), we additionally estimate the aggregate cross‐sectional internal rate of return of the German pension scheme over this period. We are able to show that these internal rates of return are mainly financed by increasing contributions and by increasing unfunded liabilities. Additionally, our analysis reveals that from an expenditure perspective, the major part of the internal rate of return results from changing longevity rather than other changes. We also estimate the implicit tax rates from a cross‐sectional perspective and find that they can mainly be interpreted as an ‘implicit wealth tax’ on pension wealth. Finally, we analyse the impact of demographic change on the balance sheet employing a population projection. While the pure demographic effect leads to a decreasing funding ratio during population ageing, the automatic balancing mechanisms of the German pension scheme lead to a significant overfunding in the long run from the accounting perspective adopted in the Swedish pension system.     

Value-Enhancing Capital Budgeting and Firm-specific Stock Return Variation

We document a robust cross‐sectional positive association across industries between a measure of the economic efficiency of corporate investment and the magnitude of firm‐specific variation in stock returns. This finding is interesting for two reasons, neither of which is a priori obvious. First, it adds further support to the view that firm‐specific return variation gauges the extent to which information about the firm is quickly and accurately reflected in share prices. Second, it can be interpreted as evidence that more informative stock prices facilitate more efficient corporate investment.     

Long‐Run Stock Performance and Its Determinants for Asset Buyers

This paper examines the long‐term stock performance of asset purchasers and the determinants of cross‐sectional differences in performance. Our findings show that buyers’ stocks, on average, underperform following purchases. Buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns of buyers acquiring related assets are significantly higher than those acquiring unrelated assets, consistent with the focus hypothesis. Asset buyers with superior prior stock performance experience poorer long‐run performance than buyers with inferior prior stock performance, consistent with the prior performance hypothesis. Asset buyers that manage earnings upward, experience poorer long‐term abnormal stock performance than acquirers with downward earnings management, consistent with the earnings management hypothesis. The long‐term return evidence is to some degree consistent with the governance hypothesis but we find little support for the free cash flow hypothesis.     

Sensitivity of Systematic Risk Estimates to the Return Measurement Interval Under Serial Correlation

This paper analytically and empirically investigates the sensitivity of the return measurement interval to the market beta estimate and suggests a market beta estimation method incorporating the investment horizon through a vector autoregressive (VAR) model when there is serial correlation in returns. The analytical relation between the beta estimate and the return measurement interval is obtained. Based on the analytical relation, a decision function for the intervalling effect is provided. It is found that the intervalling effect is mostly caused by January returns.     

Multi‐period Asset Lifetimes and Accounting‐based Equity Valuation: Take Care with Constant‐growth Terminal Value Models!

The merits of accruals in forecasting cash flows or mitigating the volatility of financials shortly after the valuation date are indisputable. However, the usefulness of accounting in equity valuation is very limited if we step beyond a certain forecasting horizon. In this paper, this limitation is emphasized by shedding new light on the accounting‐based value driver model (VDM), a widely used constant‐growth terminal value tool that uses accounting variables as input. The paper shows that, if the lifetime of a firm's assets is, on average, longer than one period, the VDM works accurately only in an idealized academic environment with an even historical corporate investment activity, a single depreciation method for all assets, and no historical inflation volatility. Artificially adjusting real‐world figures to this steady state is possible in principle, but bloats the valuation model and requires exactly the same information that is used in our cash flow‐driven benchmark model (where no adjustment phase is necessary). Beyond these theoretical shortcomings, the VDM is also prone to being misused in valuation practice due to its reliance on book (rather than economic) rates of return, and to its shortcomings in dealing adequately with the assets with an ex ante indefinite lifetime.     

Idiosyncratic momentum and the cross‐section of stock returns: Further evidence

In this article, we evaluate the profitability and economic source of the predictive power of the idiosyncratic momentum effect, by using five popular asset pricing models to construct the idiosyncratic momentum. We show that all five idiosyncratic momentum strategies produce similar return predictability and consistently outperform the conventional momentum strategy in the cross‐sectional pricing of equity portfolios and individual stocks. This positive effect of idiosyncratic momentum on returns is consistent with the investment capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Further analysis reveals that the firm‐level idiosyncratic momentum effect cannot extend to the aggregate stock market.     

Multimarket Trading and Liquidity: Theory and Evidence

We develop a new model of multimarket trading to explain the differences in the foreign share of trading volume of internationally cross‐listed stocks. The model predicts that the trading volume of a cross‐listed stock is proportionally higher on the exchange in which the cross‐listed asset returns have greater correlation with returns of other assets traded on that market. We find robust empirical support for this prediction using stock return and volume data on 251 non‐U.S. stocks cross‐listed on major U.S. exchanges.