生育指标和婚姻匹配*

本文通过研究中国计划生育政策改革来检验贝克尔（Becker）关于婚姻的经济学理论。中国从20世纪80年代起实行“一胎化”政策,但随后逐渐允许夫妻均为独生子女的家庭生育第二胎,即“双独二胎”政策。由于“双独二胎”实施前不同省份“一胎化”政策的执行力度不同,所以放开“双独二胎”在不同省份间的政策效果也不同。笔者利用政策实施时间前后和省份间政策力度的差异,采用二重差分的实证设计进行分析,发现“双独二胎”政策增加了独生子女之间的匹配,减少了独生子女和非独生子女的“混合匹配”。笔者建立搜寻—匹配模型对“双独二胎”政策如何影响婚姻市场均衡进行分析。二重差分的实证分析得到的证据与模型的推论相一致,实证结果在一系列检验中保持稳健。     

MARRIAGE,DIVORCE, AND ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION

We use data on people's valuations of options outside marriage and beliefs about spouses' options. The data demonstrate that, in some couples, one spouse would be happier and the other spouse unhappier outside of some marriages, suggesting that bargaining takes place and that spouses have private information. We estimate a bargaining model with interdependent utility that quantifies the resulting inefficiencies. Our results show that people forgo some utility in order to make their spouses better off and, in doing so, offset much of the inefficiency generated by their imperfect knowledge. Thus, we find evidence of asymmetric information and interdependent utility in marriage.     

MARRIAGE,MARKETS, AND MONEY: A COASIAN THEORY OF HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

This article integrates search‐based models of marriage and money. We think about households as organizations, the way Coase thinks about firms, as alternatives to markets that become more attractive when transactions costs increase. In the model, individuals consume market‐ and home‐produced goods, and home production is facilitated by marriage. Market frictions, including taxes, search, and bargaining problems, increase the marriage propensity. The inflation tax encourages marriage because being single is cash intensive. Microdata confirm singles use cash more than married people. We use macrodata over many countries to investigate how marriage responds to inflation, taxation, and other variables.     

SINGLE MOMS AND DEADBEAT DADS: THE ROLE OF EARNINGS,MARRIAGE MARKET CONDITIONS,AND PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY

Why do some men father children outside of marriage without providing support? Why do some women have children outside of marriage when they receive little support from fathers? Why is this behavior more common among Blacks than Whites? We estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of marriage, employment, fertility, and child support decisions. We consider the extent to which low earnings, marriage market conditions, and preference heterogeneity explain nonmarital childbearing, deadbeat fatherhood, and racial differences in these outcomes. We find the Black–White earnings gap and preference heterogeneity explain a substantial portion of racial differences, whereas marriage market conditions are less important.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE TIMING OF FIRST MARRIAGE*

Among first marriages in the United States, grooms are on average 1.7 years older than their brides. Traditionally, this fact is explained by sex differences in income. We use a general equilibrium, overlapping generations search model economy to show instead that sex differences in fecundity are essential to account for the age gap at first marriage, whereas sex differences in income play a secondary role. Our model economy also accounts for other facts on the timing of first marriages that the literature has overlooked.     

ON THE EMERGENCE OF TOYBOYS: THE TIMING OF MARRIAGE WITH AGING AND UNCERTAIN CAREERS*

We explore how gender bias in career opportunities affects matching in a marriage market with search frictions and where an individual’s fitness decays with age. We document a “being left on the shelf” effect where young singles, who find the marriage market rapidly thins with age, rush into early partnership. Singles with stronger career opportunities, however, have a greater option value to defer marriage. More equal career opportunities for women (captured by greater schooling and better occupations) potentially explain the recent emergence of toyboy unions, in which the woman is at least 5 years older than her partner.     

UNDERSTANDING MEASURES OF NONMARITAL FERTILITY: THE ROLES OF MARRIAGE AND ACCESS TO HUMAN CAPITAL

This paper proposes an explanation for several decades of rising U.S. nonmarital birth rates and shares, and for cross‐sectional differences in black‐white fertility. Significantly, the explanation does not rely on changes over time or differences across races in individual fertility behavior. It is consistent with the rising nonmarital fertility measures observed in the United States since the mid‐1970s, higher measured fertility for unmarried blacks than whites, and differences across races in the timing of childbearing, despite nearly constant total fertility rates and increasingly similar target family sizes for blacks and whites. The explanation relies on a selection effect associated with changes in the marriage rate and on racial differences in access to human capital investment opportunities. We find strong support for the explanation using U.S. data over the period 1957–2002. Our findings suggest caution in interpreting the results of empirical studies of childbearing that examine marital and nonmarital fertility rates separately, as these studies typically ignore the selection effect of marriage. (JEL J12, J13, I38)     

LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS AT SCHOOL‐LEAVING: LONG‐RUN EFFECTS ON MARRIAGE AND FERTILITY

In this study, we assess the long‐run impact of labor market conditions at the time of school‐leaving on marriage and fertility outcomes. We draw data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Our sample left school between 1976 and 1989, and we use variation in the state unemployment rate at the time of school‐leaving to identify persistent effects. We find that men who left school when the state unemployment rate was high are less likely to be married and have children at age 45, but are more likely to be divorced. Women, however, are more likely to have children. (JEL J1, J2)     

Investment Liberalization and Cross‐Border Acquisitions: The Effect of Partial Foreign Ownership

This paper investigates the optimal strategy for a multinational to conduct FDI. We find that the incentives to use acquisition rather than greenfield investment change significantly if the multinational is allowed to have already an ownership interest in the target local firm before the market is fully liberalized. Interestingly, when investment costs are sufficiently high, the multinational prefers not entering the market at all with partial ownership in place, whereas a cross‐border takeover would be the optimal entry mode otherwise. For intermediate levels of entry costs, holding a stake in the local producer reverses positively the profitability of a full acquisition compared to greenfield investment.     

Foreign Acquisitions in China and Multinationals’ Global Market Strategy

Using firm‐level data from 2000 to 2006, we find that foreign acquisitions in China change the target firms’ export extensive margins. We develop a three‐country model with cross‐border acquisitions to show that the acquirers can alter the targets’ export decision through three possible channels: fixed‐cost jumping, technology transfer and global market reorganization. We find evidence that foreign acquisitions change the Chinese target firms’ probability of exporting to a third market. Technology transfer is not observed. Evidence implies that fixed‐cost jumping is used to enable the targets to export, while global market reorganization is a key motive for the acquirers to withdraw the targets from the export market.     

Microeconomic determinants of acquisitions of Eastern European banks by Western European banks1

A considerable number of Western European banks acquired banks in Central and Eastern Europe from the mid‐1990s onwards. The question is whether or not this will improve the efficiency and profitability of the Central and Eastern European banking sectors. We test the relative strength of the efficiency versus the market power hypotheses by investigating the bank‐specific characteristics of the banks involved in the cross‐border acquisitions. We also examine the determinants of the post‐acquisition target banks’ performance. Our results indicate that large Western European banks have targeted relatively large and efficient Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) banks with an established presence in their local retail banking markets. We find no evidence that cross‐border bank acquisitions in the CEEC are driven by efficiency motivations. The evidence supports the market power hypothesis, raising concerns about the optimal balance between foreign ownership and competition.     

BEAUTY PREMIUM AND MARRIAGE PREMIUM IN SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL TEST

We propose a theoretical explanation for the so‐called beauty premium. Our approach relies entirely on search frictions and the fact that physical appearance plays an important role in attracting a marriage partner. We analyze the interaction between frictional labor and marriage markets, making use of what we label constrained job search. The optimal strategy entails different reservation wages for different men, and we establish the existence of a search equilibrium characterized by a beauty premium and/or marriage premium. Predicted profiles of premia allow for potential falsification tests and point to relevant empirical evidence in support of our theory.     

THE DYNAMIC RELATION BETWEEN RETURNS,TRADING VOLUME,AND VOLATILITY: LESSONS FROM SPILLOVERS BETWEEN ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between index returns, return volatility, and trading volume for eight Asian markets and the US. We find cross‐border spillovers in returns to be non‐existent, spillovers in absolute returns between Asia and the US to be strong in both directions, and spillovers in volatility to run from Asia to the US. Trading volume, especially on the Asian markets, depends on shocks in domestic and foreign returns as well as on volatility, especially those shocks originating in the US. However, only weak evidence is found for trading volume influencing other variables. In the light of the theoretical models, these results suggest sequential information arrivals, with investors being overconfident and applying positive feedback strategy. Furthermore, new information causes price volatility to rise due to differences in its interpretation among traders, but the subsequent market reaction takes the form of adjustment in price level, not volatility. Lastly, the intensity of cross‐border spillovers seems to have increased following the 1997 crisis, which we interpret as evidence of increased noisiness in prices and diversity in opinions about news originating abroad. Our findings might also help to understand the nature of financial crises, to predict their further developments and consequences.     

当前妇女婚姻家庭地位评价方法浅析

本分析妇女婚姻家庭地位评价方法述评和妇女婚姻家庭地位评价体系构建的基本原则两个部分,前撷取现存在有关研究成果,按照妇女婚姻家庭地位的内涵和对其进行地位评价的目的,分别进行了简析;后面对在此研究中存在的现实问题,提出了构建科学、实用的妇女婚姻家庭地位评价指标体系的若干项基本原则。     

STRATEGIC TRADE AND DELEGATED COMPETITION WITH ENDOGENOUS QUALITY CHOICE: IS EXPORT POLICY NEEDED?

This paper introduces the relative‐performance contract into a vertically differentiated product market and examines how the optimal trade policy and quality choice respond to the incentive mechanism. We find that the high quality firm makes better use of the delegation than the low quality firm in a cross‐border decentralized model. The main difference between the present paper and the strategic trade theory literature is that in this paper the optimal policy is free trade, which does not depend on whether firms compete by prices or quantities, and on whether the goods are substitutes or full complements.     

Trade Openness and Cross‐country Income Differences

This paper asks how variations in trade openness contribute to cross‐country income differences. We approach this question using counterfactual experiments within a quantified general equilibrium model of trade. We find that trade costs gain their relevance only by amplifying the effects of existing differences in endowments, population sizes and technologies. If, for example, market entry costs were the same in all countries, inequality would be about 13% lower. Variable trade costs are found to have a similar effect. In contrast, if countries differed only by their degree of trade openness, the resulting variance of per capita income would be negligible.     

MALE AND FEMALE MARRIAGE RETURNS TO SCHOOLING

A collective marriage matching model is estimated and calibrated to quantify the share of returns to schooling that is realized through marriage. The predictions of the model are matched with detailed Danish household data on the relationship between schooling and wage rates, the division of time and goods within the household, and the extent to which men and women sort positively on several traits in marriage. Counterfactual analysis conducted with the model suggests that Danish men and women are earning on the order of half of their returns to schooling through improved marital outcomes.     

The Effects of Trade Liberalization between Heterogeneous Countries on Endogenous Mergers

This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization on merger behavior. We endogenize merger choice among owners in an oligopolistic industry in asymmetric countries to analyze the consequences of trade cost reductions on competitiveness and welfare. In this context, the non‐cooperative game supports asymmetric market structures. We also find that trade liberalization is not necessarily pro‐competitive in countries with the competitive advantage, even if trade costs are completely abolished. Moreover, the tariff‐jumping explanation of international mergers does not necessarily apply. The welfare analysis shows that merger behavior can significantly alter any gains from liberalization. Countries should consider enforcing competition in regional agreements. Specifically, to avoid a reduction in domestic welfare following trade‐liberalizing reductions in trade costs, a high‐cost country's optimal policy may be to ban international mergers.     

China's Regional Trade and Domestic Market Integrations

The global economic crisis in 2007 forced China to move from export‐led growth to promoting domestic demand. The move is significant, but the success of this new growth strategy depends critically on the level of domestic market integrations. In this paper, we use the methodology proposed by Anderson and Wincoop to examine China's domestic market integrations. We find evidence of border effects at both national and regional levels with significant regional differences, but they are smaller than some earlier studies suggest. Income growth, lower transportation costs, and higher intra‐industry trade all have positive effects on China's regional trade. Among the factors affecting regional trade, a better business environment has the largest positive impact on lifting China's domestic trade between regions, especially in intermediate goods, suggesting that improving business environment should be the priority of government at all levels in China.     

Pecking order and core‐periphery in international trade

This paper analyzes the impact of market size and trade costs on bilateral trade flows. A multi‐country trade model with firm‐level heterogeneity in productivities and countries’ market potential provides a simple micro foundation for the link between these variables. In the model, market size and trade costs jointly determine a country‐specific pecking order of exporters serving their destination countries. In a counterfactual setting where bilateral trade costs are homogeneous across country pairs, market size predicts a common ranking of exporters among destination countries. This leads to a unique core‐periphery structure of the world trade network. With heterogeneous trade costs, we illustrate the impact of market size and trade costs on bilateral trade flows and its margins in a simple gravity‐like setting. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that both market size and trade costs (measured through the network position of countries) have a significant impact on bilateral exports: countries in the core bilaterally trade more with other countries in the core than with peripheral countries, conditional on typical observables.