美国经济下滑和美元贬值对中国出口和通货膨胀的影响

一、次级债危机造成美国经济下滑 次级债危机在美国国内有愈演愈烈之势.美林和花旗最近分别爆出79亿美元和65亿美元的巨亏,两家机构的CEO相继离职.     

美元贬值与东亚货币合作

当前国际金融体系的显著特征是美元在国际金融体系中的支配地位,在金融交易、衍生品交易、贸易计价、官方储备和作为锚货币方面,美元仍然是世界上最主要的货币。但是,随着全球经济的发展,欧盟、东亚等地区经济实力不断提升、美国＂双赤字＂的巨额累积、美元的长期贬值,美元本位的国际货币安排暴露出越来越多的问题,美元本位下美元汇率的变动给国际金融体系带来了巨大的风险。本文针对美元贬值不可避免的事实,指出了美元贬值将导致全球金融动荡,提出了东亚经济体的应对策略。     

关于美国次级债危机问题的理论综述

2007年8月爆发的美国次级债危机不仅给美国经济带来巨大的影响，而且产生了波及全球的蝴蝶效应，对处于经济金融高位运行的中国敲响了警钟。本文从美国次级债危机的酿成过程、形成原因以及本次危机的新特点等几个方面进行了综述，最后提出现有研究的不足和有待改进之处。有利于我们从美国次贷危机中吸取经验，加强警示，从而促进我国经济的持续、健康、平稳运行。     

2009年招标代理机构面临的经济形势分析

近期,一些招标机构发现部分行业如钢铁、化工、纺织类的招标项目明显减少,甚至在招标过程中的个别项目已出现暂停现象,这不得不让人联想到美国爆发的次级债危机。目前,这场危机愈演愈烈,其影响已波及全球,中国经济也受到了一定程度的影响。美国次级债危机究竟是怎样产生的,对我国经济主要有哪些影响？2009年中国的经济形势又会是怎样的局势？这些都是主营业务与经济基本面和国家宏观政策密切相关的招标代理机构目前最为关注的问题。     

金融结构变迁中的金融风险演化

鉴于美国次级债危机造成的损失正在金融市场上扩散,本文对金融结构变迁中金融风险的演化机制进行了分析,指出这次美国次级债危机是缺乏有效风险管理的必然结果。并提出了应该在世界范围内建立统一有效的风险管理机制的建议。     

美国次级债危机及其对我国经济的影响

近期发生的美国次级债危机，对我国目前经济的影响还很小，但危机仍在发展，有可能从金融领域蔓延到实体经济，导致美国乃至全球经济减速。因此，需要高度关注其对我国香港和内地的股市、汇市、出口和投资可能产生的负面影响。     

宏观经济环境促进经济健康发展

众所周知，经济全球化的发展促使世界经济持续多年稳步增长。尽管2008 年世界经济运行进入了阶段性调整周期，但世界经济在受到美国经济因房地产次级债拖累和石油期货突破每桶110 美元的影响，造成短期经济衰退预期的同时，经济向好的情况依旧，稳中有升的增长格局将成为全年世界经济发展的基本格局。     

美国次级债危机的根源与启示

始于2007年初的美国次级抵押贷款危机事件，发生已经一年多了，截至目前，美国的次级抵押贷款事件已经从次级抵押贷款危机演变为美国的次级债危机，进而又有数家国际知名的贷款机构、投资银行和商业银行因为资金链条受到巨大损伤，面临危机甚至倒闭。而这一事件的发展对美国乃至全球经济的影响也越来越深，不仅导致股市的剧烈波动，甚至损伤到整个经济层面。同时，相关国家的中央银行也不得不伸出援手，评估并对冲由于美国次级贷款危机产生的影响。     

浅析美国次贷危机对中国经济的影响

从2006年下半年发端的美国次级债危机至今,美国经济危机四起,并且正在影响着全球的经济发展。尽管美国政府多次降息,并且采取了一系列的应急措施,终无法改变美国经济不断衰退的趋势。本文从中美经济的基本面出发,提出美国经济的衰退将在一定程度上影响中国经济的发展,但是由于中国金融等领域尚没有完全放开,次级债对中国经济的影响有限;文章同时认为美国经济的衰退给中国经济“走出去”提供了机遇,为中国经济的赶超发展提供了条件。     

虚拟经济视野下的次贷危机与美元危机解析

本文首先分析了美元全球环流过程导致世界流动性膨胀以及美国经济虚拟化的机制,指出美国虚拟经济和实体经济的背离是次贷危机和美元危机的深层次根源.其次阐述了美国次贷金融危机与美元危机的区别,进而从美国次贷危机的救助措施、境外投资者力量以及欧元竞争币种的出现,分析美元危机扩大的必然性.     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

文化传播中电视暴力对青少年侵犯行为的影响

伴随当代传媒产业的蓬勃发展,暴力也成为影视艺术基本的叙事类型及消费主义文化日趋盛行的现实语境。＂电视暴力＂是作为＂媒介暴力＂的一个子概念存在的;从文化传播看电视暴力,其覆盖面大,且易于接触;电视暴力对受众特别是青少年的影响巨大而深刻。要从制作者、传播者和观众三个方面的自律出发,建立适应我国国情的影视分级制。