Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle

This paper studies investment in intellectual capital and corresponding value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle. We assume that the innovation cycle consists of three phases, R&D, trial, and market introduction phases. We use a real option investment model to characterize firm value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle and find that firm value is the sum of the value of assets in place and non-linear option values related to breakthrough, exit, and market introduction options. Firm risk over the innovation cycle is highly non-linear and quite distinct in different phases. During the R&D phase risk is high as the firm faces high operating leverage originating from R&D fixed costs together with technological uncertainty. During the trial phase risk is significantly lower and dominated by option risk to launch the product in the market while after the introduction of the product in the market risk is equivalent to the asset risk of the company. Our model is consistent with the view that positive excess returns of R&D intensive firms are a compensation for risk. Based on this insight we derive several testable predictions.     

Measurement of innovation efficiency in logistic enterprises: Evidence from China based on the three-stage DEA-Malmquist index model approach

Continuous improvement of technological innovation ability, adjustment of the development strategy, and enhancement of operational performance are of great theoretical and practical significance for logistics enterprises. This paper aims to analyze and evaluate the innovation efficiency of the logistics industry. The study utilizes the static three-stage DEA model and the dynamic Malmquist index model, considering a total of 12 indicators related to innovation input, output, and environmental variables. A dataset of 2940 entries from 49 listed logistics enterprises from 2017 to 2021 was calculated. The analysis provides insights into the innovation efficiency of logistics enterprises from a static perspective and the innovation total factor productivity from a dynamic perspective and decomposition terms. Based on the analysis of environmental variables by the SFA model, it was found that DEA inefficiency is the combined result of environmental factors and management inefficiency. Environmental variables have both positive and negative effects on innovation. The improvement of the economic development level will lead to excess R&D investment. Increased government simple fund subsidies are not conducive to the efficient allocation of innovation resources within enterprises. The expansion of enterprise scale will increase R&D personnel and investment in fixed assets. A thriving technology market can encourage enterprises to improve their own conversion rate of scientific and technological output and give full play to their innovation ability. The dynamic Malmquist model analysis reveals a recution in the overall innovation efficiency of listed logistics enterprises over 5 years. The changes in total factor productivity and technological progress efficiency of all listed logistics enterprises are synchronized, with most enterprises exhibiting higher technological progress efficiency compared to comprehensive technical efficiency. The total factor productivity of logistics enterprise innovation is mainly affected by comprehensive technical efficiency.     

Efficiency evaluation of China's high-tech industry with a multi-activity network data envelopment analysis approach

This paper employs a Russell multi-activity network DEA model and divides the overall innovation process into the upstream Research and Development (R&D) process and the downstream commercialization process to appraise the innovation performance of China's high-tech industries from 2009 to 2013. This model can deal with the problems of intermediates, shared inputs and slack-based measure in a unified framework, and the result can provide policy makers with process-specific information on how to improve the innovation performance of China's high-tech industries. The main findings are presented as follows. First, the overall efficiency of China's high-tech industries still remains at a low level, which has its roots mainly in commercialization inefficiencies other than R&D inefficiencies. Second, for most provinces, their R&D efficiencies do not match up with their commercialization efficiencies. Finally, the innovative activities of China's high-tech industries should be driven by the market demand -oriented for the improvement of innovation efficiency.     

Do environmental regulations hamper small enterprises' market entry? Evidence from China

Due to the serious increase of environmental pollution in China, environmental regulations have become significantly stringent. Such regulations are playing an increasingly important role in the development of small enterprises (SEs) in China, especially in SEs' market entry. However, existing studies pay little attention to this issue. This paper investigates for the first time the effect of environmental regulations on SEs' market entry and the mechanism of environmental regulation effects in China. We consider two sets of panel data for the periods 2003–2010 and 2012–2015 in China. We also use the fixed effect model and the instrumental variable method to explore the role of environmental regulations in SEs' market entry. The results show that, overall, environmental regulations play a significantly positive and robust role in SEs' market entry. However, the mechanisms associated with the effect of environmental regulations on different innovative types of SEs differ. Environmental regulations promote the market entry of SEs with product innovation, but this impact is not significant for SEs with research and development (R&D) activities and R&D institutions. Our findings indicate that China's SEs prefer product innovation, which is a lower level innovative type, over R&D innovation, as a means to avoid the negative impact of stringent environmental regulations.     

企业技术中心创新管理：基于流程视角的研究框架

创新是企业获取竞争优势的最主要来源，创新管理也是近年来学界广泛研究的议题之一。本文以企业技术中心的创新管理为研究对象，提出流程视角的研究框架，探索从创意到市场的最佳创新管理模式。着重指出创意来源应包括外部大环境视角，行业视角，客户视角和公司视角，并概述创意筛选、转化的原则和模型以及创新项目管理等概念，为企业技术中心提高创新产出提供新视角。     

对政策激励、企业创新与消费增长关系的探讨

提高消费对中国经济增长的贡献度具有突出的现实意义。需求决定论强调通过宏观经济政策刺激消费,消费需求的扩张会使实际产出增长,熨平经济的波动。而长期增长论则强调通过市场的内在作用创造消费,扩张消费又可以通过规模效应、经验效应和价格稳定效应激励创新,实现潜在产出的增长。当前,"政策激励"与"企业创新"两个方面的结合,对"保增长、调结构"目标的实现都具有现实意义。在强调政府政策激励作用的同时,也应关注企业创新对于消费增长的根本意义,努力实现企业创新和需求的良性互动。     

Determinants of industrial innovation in China: Evidence from its recent economic census

This study examines the sources of technological innovation in Chinese industries using the 2004 economic census data. On the one hand, it analyzes the relationships between patent grants and new product sales. On the other hand, it analyzes the relationships among in-house R&D, technology transfer from foreign and Chinese domestic technology markets, spillover effects of foreign investment, as well as export. The study reveals that in-house R&D has become the most important source for industrial innovation in China. In-house technological efforts are critical for developing original innovations as well as for absorbing the technologies transferred from external agencies. However, neither technologies transferred from foreign countries nor those from the domestic technology market are playing significant roles in China’s industrial innovation. The spillover effect of foreign investment on patent grants is strong and significant, though its impact on new product sales is insignificant. Export shows negative, though insignificant, impact on patent grants, but positive, strong, and significant effects on new product development. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate the critical role of in-house R&D in China’s industrial innovation.     

Patents, Research Exemption, and the Incentive for Sequential Innovation

We develop a quality ladder model to study the R&D incentive impacts of intellectual property rights with a "research exemption" or "experimental use" provision. The innovation process is sequential and cumulative and takes place alongside production in an infinite-horizon setting. We solve the model under two distinct intellectual property regimes, characterize the properties of the relevant Markov perfect equilibria, and investigate the profit and welfare effects of the research exemption. We find that firms, ex ante , always prefer full patent protection. The welfare ranking of the two intellectual property regimes, on the other hand, depends on the relative magnitudes of the costs of initial innovation and improvements.     

市场机制下孵化器创新创业服务体系研究

为进一步助推“双创”升级,创孵机构一直不断地探索着新的商业模式、探索优质资源,进一步改善运作效率。在目前的市场经济环境中,要实现创新创业服务资源的最优配置,就需要结合市场机制研究孵化器的服务模式。文章分析了市场机制下孵化器创新创业服务的定价模型,根据该模型得到孵化器市场化运作效率的影响因素。基于该定价模型进行实证研究,可以分析得到孵化器在实际市场运行过程中存在的问题,并以创业黑马为例进行了创新创业服务运营的实例分析。根据该定价模型与实证分析结果,提出了从服务内容优化、服务效率优化、孵化器品牌战略、入孵筛选机制优化等方面优化孵化器运营模式,探寻适合孵化器长期可持续发展的创新创业服务体系,从而进一步助推创新创业。     

“金砖国家”创新体系的技术效率与单因素效率评价

基于国家创新体系效率评价的两阶段模型,运用数据包络分析及其改进方法,对“金砖国家”创新体系的技术效率与单因素效率进行全面测度,并与美国等发达国家进行比较分析。研究发现,“金砖国家”研发效率远远低于发达国家水平,科技向经济的转化效率则正在赶超发达国家;两阶段的单因素效率都普遍偏低,尤其是政府研发投入效率与专利产出效率。     

中国高技术产业技术创新三阶段特征及其演变

基于投入产出分析的逻辑思路建立技术创新三阶段模型,运用链式网络DEA方法测量我国高技术产业技术创新三阶段效率,通过技术创新效率的动态变化观察高技术产业技术创新演变规律。研究发现,1996~2011年我国高技术产业技术开发阶段经历了整体上类似“U”形的变化,源于技术开发阶段的投入增多、企业重视力度加大;技术转化阶段滞后于技术开发阶段近两年的变化时期,主要起因于纯技术无效率、技术开发阶段和产业化阶段的脱节;产业化阶段滞后于技术开发阶段近5年的变化时期和技术转化阶段近3年的变化时期,主要由于产业化阶段作为技术开发和技术转化的下游阶段,偏低的技术转化率必然导致最终的产业化率极低,但改进的空间很大。     

Endogenous Technological Spillovers: Causes and Consequences

We develop a new approach to endogenizing technological spillovers. We analyze a game in which firms can first invest in cost-reducing R&D, then compete on the human-capital market for their knowledge-bearing employees, and finally enter the product market. If R&D employees change firms, spillovers arise. We show that technological spillovers are most likely when they increase total industry profits. We use this result to show that innovation incentives are usually stronger for endogenous than for exogenous spillovers and that endogenous spillovers may reverse the result that innovation incentives are stronger under quantity competition than under price competition. Finally, we explore the robustness of our results with respect to contractual incompleteness and the number of R&D workers.     

经济发展水平与科普资源投入产出效率的关系研究——基于三阶段DEA模型

双循环新发展格局对我国创新提出了更高的要求。创新发展一方面需要科技创新,另一方面也少不了科学普及,中央强调科学普及与科技创新同等地位。基于三阶段DEA模型,对2008—2015年31个省市、自治区科普投入产出效率进行研究,按照经济发展情况把全国划分为三个区域。研究发现:我国科普投入产出技术效率的上升和规模效率的波动影响科普投入产出效率的升高;综合效率不断波动,经济发达地区总体效率最高,欠发达地区次之,较发达地区最差,且经济发展水平的差异造成了科普投入产出效率的差异。进一步分析了影响效率变化的原因,并给出提升科普投入产出效率的对策建议。     

Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

We model an incumbent’s decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market‐related uncertainties. It is also particularly attractive to the rival entrant: if the market for it pans out, such an innovation obsoletes the existing technology and any incremental improvements to it. Each firm has its own assessment of the market potential for the radical innovation, and the reliability of these market forecasts can differ. We show that when the entrant’s market‐assessment capability is weak, the incumbent will pursue incremental innovation and postpone its plans to develop radical innovation even when it thinks highly of the market potential for the radical innovation. The incumbent does so to avoid validating the high market potential to the entrant, who may otherwise be encouraged to invest aggressively. The incumbent thus prefers to look “soft” with respect to its innovation strategy in order to discourage entry. Even if its innovation strategy is not observable, we show that an incumbent that assesses the commercial potential for a radical innovation favorably may pursue an incremental path and communicate its plans publicly; this strategy serves to reduce entry by affecting the entrant’s beliefs about the market potential of the innovation. Finally, we extend the model to investigate the entrant’s decision to communicate its innovation intentions. We find that the entrant communicates its plans to aggressively pursue radical innovation only if the incumbent’s market‐assessment capabilities are strong. In doing so, the entrant acts preemptively to discourage the incumbent from pursuing the radical innovation, and is less concerned with validating market potential.     

International endogenous growth,macro anomalies,and asset prices

This paper develops a two-country production economy with complete and frictionless financial markets and international trade in which investments in research and development (R&D) by entrants lead to endogenous new firm creation and economic growth. Innovative entrants use both consumption goods in their innovation technologies to capture international technological spillovers. Households also consume both goods. Specifically, I compare the equilibrium implications from the model with technology spillovers to the ones from an equivalent model without technology spillovers, i.e. a model where entrants only use domestic final goods in their R&D expenditures. With these two models at hand, new insights on the interplay of endogenous growth and long-run risks, technology spillovers, complete financial markets, and international trade are obtained, particularly with respect to international macro and asset pricing anomalies. The novel technology spillover channel has the potential to help explaining a number of these anomalies.     

Carbon Offset Provision with Guilt‐Ridden Consumers

Carbon offsets allow consumers to mitigate their guilt associated with their carbon footprint. On the one hand, when offsets are purchased in an industry unrelated to the consumption activity, offsets are complements to consumption and the introduction of an offset market causes consumption to rise. On the other hand, when offsets are purchased in a related industry, consumption and offsets are substitutes and consumption falls. In general, however, net emissions decline. We find two exceptions to this rule. First, when offsets are purchased in an unrelated market, if there is no latent demand for offsets in their absence, the introduction of offsets can potentially cause a rise in net emissions when producers of “dirty” consumption goods have market power. Second, when offsets are purchased to fund green energy, emissions can rise if “dirty” producers can engage in pre‐emptive strategic commitments and the price of offsets is chosen endogenously.     

基于企业层面的顾客创新管理的优化策略

无论是个体消费为主的市场,还是以企业或组织为主的市场,顾客创新已经构成企业创新的一部分,顾客创新的重要性也已经得到企业界与学术界的重视。本文从企业视角出发,通过梳理和归纳顾客创新对企业绩效的影响,进而剖析了现有顾客创新管理存在的问题。在此基础上,提出顾客创新管理的优化策略。     

Technology ladders and R&D in dynamic Cournot markets

Motivated by dramatic and unpredictable technological advances in energy production (for instance drilling and extraction of shale oil), we extend Cournot models of competition to incorporate research and development (R&D) that can lead to (stochastic) drops in production costs. Our model combines features of patent racing with dynamic market structure, capturing the interplay between the immediate competition in terms of production rates and the long-term competition in R&D. The resulting Markov Nash equilibrium is found from a sequence of one-step static games arising between R&D successes, and several numerical examples and extensive analysis of the emerging comparative statics are presented. Analyzing the relationship between current market dominance and the level of R&D investments, we find that market leaders tend to invest more, which in some sense makes oligopoly dynamically unstable. We show that anticipated market transitions have long-term impact; for example the potential of future monopoly can spur R&D investment now, even if the firm is presently uncompetitive and not actively producing. We also show that, surprisingly, random innovations have an ambiguous effect on R&D. This feature, which is driven by the Cournot framework, contrasts with the common situation whereby uncertainty lowers innovation and delays R&D investments. Finally, we demonstrate that increased competition may actually increase efforts to innovate through higher desire to achieve dominance. This would match the anecdotal evidence that the threat of market entrants forces incumbents to maintain high R&D.     

An analysis of firm-level innovation strategies in the US biotechnology industry

This study examines factors that may affect innovation strategies and performance of firms in the biotechnology industry. Specifically, differences between factors common to firms with high R&D intensity and those to firms with low R&D intensity are investigated. Biotechnology firms with relatively higher levels of R&D intensity attribute their innovation performance to research-based innovation factors and strategies such as strengthening their own research capabilities, entering into research collaborations with universities, industry leaders and other biotech firms, and licensing their technology. These strategies can be summarized as alignment within the industry. Firms with relatively lower R&D intensity have a hybrid focus—they invest in R&D but may also have products on the market. These firms attribute their innovation performance more so to production-based innovation factors and strategies such as gaining market access and maintaining connections with customers. Their strategy focuses on competitiveness, marketing, and distribution channels, while not ignoring the importance of a strong research base and the need to advance technologically. In a sense, strategies employed to achieve successful innovation reflect the stage of innovation in which a firm is operating for a particular product or process.     

Listen to the market: Do its complexity and signals make companies more innovative?

This paper analyzes four modes of innovation that differ in their scope of newness (innovation generation and adoption) and in their degree of change (radical and incremental). Building a theoretical model based on the market orientation (MO) and contingency theory literature and using a sample of innovative firms, we find that MO positively influences the numbers of incremental generation and adoption of innovations. We also find that environmental complexity moderates the relationship between MO and radical and incremental innovation generation and the number of incremental innovation adoption. That is, we have found that highly complex environments enhance the introduction of radical and incremental internally generated innovations and harm the adoption of incremental innovation for market-oriented firms. These findings add to the innovation and MO literatures. Our results also have important implications for both the commercial activities and R&D policies of firms.