实际经济周期理论与动态一般均衡模型

实际经济周期理论使用一般均衡的框架分析经济波动现象 ,认为经济周期是理性个体对实际冲击调整的结果 ,从而波动本身是Pareto最优的 ,任何的政府干预只能改变一部分人的福利水平。实际经济周期理论对宏观经济学的贡献不仅仅在于其倡导的理论本身 ,也在于其为宏观经济学提供的建模方法———动态一般均衡模型。     

近年人民币汇率机制与货币政策的冲突

文章建立在开放条件下宏观经济学的分析框架上,从人民币内外均衡的角度,运用相关理论模型,结合近年中国宏观经济数据,对2001年以来人民币汇率机制与货币政策之间的冲突、形成这些冲突的原因、协调冲突的对策等问题进行了解析。     

近年人民币汇率机制与货币政策的冲突

文章建立在开放条件下宏观经济学的分析框架上,从人民币内外均衡的角度,运用相关理论模型,结合近年中国宏观经济数据,对2001年以来人民币汇率机制与货币政策之间的冲突、形成这些冲突的原因、协调冲突的对策等问题进行了解析.     

基于NOEM-DSGE模型的中国宏观经济环境研究浅析

近十几年来,国际宏观经济学领域兴起了一种新的研究方法,即新开放经济宏观经济学一动态随机一般均衡模型(简称NOEM-DSGE模型).该方法由于具有明确的微观基础,并引入了动态随机分析,在解释诸多经济问题时显示了其优越性.本文首先介绍了NOEM-DSGE模型的基本结构和应用领域,然后利用该模型来分析2010年中国的宏观经济环境.     

分析、借鉴和拓展——关于当代西方宏观经济学在中国的应用

作为探讨国民经济总体运行规律的一门学科——当代宏观经济学,在西方国家已经有了50多年的历史。在我国,由于经济体制改革和对外开放,极大地开阔了人们的视野,西方宏观经济学也愈来愈引起我国经济学界和宏观经济决策者的重视。可以说,从凯恩斯主义、后凯恩斯主义到货币主义、理性预期学派直至80年代风靡美国的供应学派理论,西方宏观经济理论在我国形成了一道又一道冲击波,极大地影响着我国宏观经济理论的研究和实际宏观决策。那么,在中国能否应用和怎样应用西方宏观经济学。     

探究宏观经济理论微观基础的新视角

主流宏观经济学的微观基础是旨在通过对个体行为的分析来阐释宏观经济总量之间的关系。在过去几十年里，整个宏观经济理论最为主要的研究课题是为宏观经济学寻找微观基础，宏观经济学应当建立在一定的微观基础之上似乎已是不争的事实，但是现有经济理论对建立微观基础必要性的解释尚缺乏说服力，并且在微观基础的构筑上也存在着一定的缺陷，本文试图对这一方面的争论和最新进展作一剖析。     

实际经济周期理论述评

实际经济周期理论是西方宏观经济学在80年代里的重要展发成果之一,它与卢卡斯等人为代表的不完全信息理性预期理论同属新古典流派,是凯恩斯主义在80年代发展形成的新凯恩斯主义的最新或许也是最强有力的竞争对手。实际经济周期理论在西方经济学发展进程中具有重要地位。一实际经济周期理论是新古典流派在80年代里的发展、延伸和代表,它具有新古典流派的一般特征:理论分析的基本前提是存在着完全竞争的一般均衡经济。     

新开放经济宏观经济学:研究文献综述

1995年Obstfeld和Rogoff提出了Redux模型，将名义粘性和不完全竞争纳入到建立在坚实微观基础上的动态一般均衡模型中，从而开辟了“新开放经济宏观经济学”的研究方法。此后，沿着这一方向，出现了大量的文献，将研究进一步推向深入。“新开放经济宏观经济学”将开放经济下宏观经济学的发展带入了一个全新的时代，成为当前研究的一个主导方向，本文将对这一方向的产生和发展作一较为系统全面的综述。     

新结构主义利率理论述评

在西方经济理论的发展史中,利率理论一直居于重要地位,尤其在凯恩斯创立宏观经济学以后,利率作为一个宏观经济变量的地位显著提高。但理论界在利率对宏观经济的调节以及在经济增长中的作用等问题上却存在着很大的分歧。凯恩斯本人及其追随者大都强调低利率对投资的刺激作用。他们认为当流动陷阱有效时,实际利率已超过充分就业的均衡利率水平,从而使充分就业水平的计划储蓄超过计划投资,这一不平衡状态只有通过实际收入水平下降引起计划储蓄减少才得以重新实现平衡。     

美元本位与中美贸易顺差之谜

在传统理论中,本币升值会导致净出口减少。但是,自2005年以来,伴随着人民币持续升值,中美贸易顺差不但没有减少反而大幅上升,由此产生了所谓的"中美贸易顺差之谜"。本文借鉴新开放经济宏观经济学Redux模型,在动态一般均衡的分析框架下分析美元本位对中美贸易顺差的影响,通过数值模拟和经验检验发现,美元本位是导致"中美贸易顺差之谜"的重要原因。美元本位的作用越强,汇率的传递效应越弱,汇率变动对经常项目的影响越小。在汇率传递的不对称影响下,美元本位可能导致汇率对经常项目影响的逆转。     

古典货币中性理论的逻辑

古典经济学家把经济体系分离成实体经济与货币经济两个体系,一部分是利用瓦尔拉斯的一般均衡理论解释的实体经济体系,另一部分是利用货币数量论解释的货币经济体系,两个体系受各自规律支配,独立运行,货币是中性的,这就构成了古典货币中性理论的基本逻辑。     

Mining improbable postulates and the theory of diverting toys(Advances in General Equilibrium Theory) Donald A. Walker Edward Elgar, 1997, 165 pp.

Walker'sAdvances in General Equilibrium Theory summarizes his position on the usefulness and appropriateness of much of modern general equilibrium modeling. He argues that much of modern general equilibrium modeling does not have the objective of explaining the real economy. His comments concerning general equilibrium theory are easily seen to be related to his study of Walras. In his text, Walker is critical of the general equilibrium theorizing of a number of well-known economists. He spends the majority of the book tearing down general equilibrium theory and models as they are presented in literature. He concludes his book by summarizing his opinion about how realistic models of the economy should be structured.     

Quantifying shifts in primary factor demand in the South African economy

This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified.     

汇率调整无效力问题的微观与宏观研究范式评析——关于20世纪80年代以来汇率理论研究的变迁原因与发展特征分析

由"购买力平价悖论"、"汇率不相关悖论"以及"汇率不完全转移"现象所代表的汇率调整无效力问题,是20世纪80年代以来国际经济学界最为关注的问题。经济学家应用静态局部均衡分析与动态一般均衡分析对这一问题的发生机制与实践影响进行了理论与经验的解释,这些研究重塑与发展了现代汇率理论。本文的目的在于评价这些汇率理论的变迁原因与发展特征,即在阐明传统汇率理论的现实挑战——西方经济在微观-产业层次与宏观-国际层次上遭遇的汇率调整无效力的典型事实的基础上,论述与评价经济学家运用静态局部均衡分析与动态一般均衡分析在解决汇率调整无效力问题的过程中取得的标志性的方法论贡献。     

The Impact of Increased School Enrollment on Economic Growth in Tanzania

Abstract: Two different positions prevail in the recent discussion on the impact of education on economic growth: those who support a positive correlation between schooling and economic growth rates and those who claim that the impact of schooling on growth has been overstated. What is intriguing about this discussion is that both positions are based on theory and the results from empirical studies. We examine the long‐term effects of increased school enrollment (and effective attendance) on economic growth in Tanzania using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. We find that an increase in human capital formation in the long run leads only to a moderate increase of economic growth rates but to a substantial improvement of factor incomes to low‐education households, while overall income effects are Pareto efficient.     

美国金融体系、大萧条和投机蔓延

相比于非主流的经济学家,2008年以来的美国经济大萧条对主流经济学家来说是一个巨大的震动,原因在于二者对于虚拟经济与实体经济间的互动关系一直存在争议。虽然政策的制定者依然依据的是主流经济理论,监管和透明度提升可以弥补市场失灵,但是有不少人对于监管在防范类似危机中的作用持怀疑态度。深层次的经济转型和对投机的限制对于经济的长期稳定来说是必要的。我们已经找到了一种衡量投机活动与生产活动的方法,被称之为"投机蔓延"模型,它提供了一个理解经济过度金融化的新视角。     

Rowing along the computable general equilibrium modelling mainstream

Theoretical, empirical, and technical principles of computable general equilibrium models (CGE models) development have been presented. It is commented how to model the economical processes using this approach. many economists develop the CGE mosels in order to solve the problems of economical forecast. But the resonable criticism of this method is ignored. By analyzing the approaches to CGE models development in the paper it is concluded that the majority of CGE models are not able to describe properly the operation of real economics losing to the method of interindustry forecast. In the recent time the CGE models have been widely used in economics. The presented paper explain why such attractive methods can lose its popularity.     

What do we know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell did not?

The answer to the question in the title is: A lot. In this essay, I argue that the history of macroeconomics during the 20th century can be divided into three epochs:Pre-1940. A period of exploration, where macroeconomics was not macroeconomics yet, but monetary theory on one side, business cycle theory on the other. A period during which all the right ingredients, and quite a few more, were developed. But also a period where confusion reigned, because of the lack of an integrated framework.From 1940 to 1980. A period of consolidation. A period during which an integrated framework was developed – starting with the IS-LM, all the way to dynamic general equilibrium models – and used to clarify the role of shocks and propagation mechanisms in fluctuations. But a construction with an Achille's heel, namely too casual a treatment of imperfections, leading to a crisis in the late 1970s.Since 1980. A new period of exploration, focused on the role of imperfections in macroeconomics, from the relevance of nominal price setting, to incompleteness of markets, to asymmetric information, to search and bargaining in decentralized markets. Exploration often feels like confusion. But behind it may be one of the most productive periods of research in macroeconomics.     

供求冲击与人民币汇率的波动：基于DSGE两国模型的模拟分析

为分析人民币汇率的波动,本文应用当前新开放经济学主流的动态随机一般均衡两国模型的研究方法,通过引入垄断竞争的市场结构和粘性的价格调整方式,模拟了在以技术冲击为代表的供给冲击和以货币冲击为代表的需求冲击下汇率的波动,进而用来拟合人民币汇率的波动。结果表明相对于需求冲击,供给冲击对人民币汇率波动的拟合比较好,这表明“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森”效应是解释和预测人民币汇率波动的合理途径,也给我国的人民币汇率稳定政策提供了明确的导向。