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本文在对货币政策传导机制进行理论分析的基础上,利用线性和非线性格兰杰因果关系检验方法对货币政策传导机制中传统凯恩斯利率传导渠道、资产价格传导渠道以及信贷传导渠道进行了检验和识别。结果发现,传统凯恩斯利率传导渠道在整个样本区间内都是有效的。金融危机后资产价格传导渠道中股票价格传导渠道和房地产价格传导渠道有效性明显增强,表明现阶段对我国股票市场和房地产市场进行有效监管,规范股票市场和房地产市场的运行机制,对其进行科学合理的宏观调控,不仅关系到股票市场和房地产市场的自身发展,还关系到货币政策能否有效实施,因此需要高度关注。 相似文献
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我国货币政策面临的主要问题是传导不畅。不可否认,股票市场的发展在一定程度上分流了信贷渠道对货币政策传导的作用。本文应用现代计量分析方法,从股票价格对货币供给量的反馈程度,实证分析了我国股票市场的货币政策传导效率。结论表明我国的货币供给量和股票价格在长期中存在正相关关系,但相关性并不强。这是由于市场规模有限、金融一体化程度较低等因素的制约,使得我国股票市场的货币政策传导效率低下。因此,应通过扩大股票市场规模、调整和优化市场结构、疏通货币市场和资本市场的联系渠道等途径,提高股票市场的货币政策传导效率。 相似文献
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本文在对货币政策传导机制进行理论分析的基础上,利用线性和非线性格兰杰因果关系检验方法对货币政策传导机制中传统凯恩斯利率传导渠道、资产价格传导渠道以及信贷传导渠道进行了检验和识别。结果发现,传统凯恩斯利率传导渠道在整个样本区间内都是有效的。金融危机后资产价格传导渠道中股票价格传导渠道和房地产价格传导渠道有效性明显增强,表明现阶段对我国股票市场和房地产市场进行有效监管,规范股票市场和房地产市场的运行机制,对其进行科学合理的宏观调控,不仅关系到股票市场和房地产市场的自身发展,还关系到货币政策能否有效实施,因此需要高度关注。 相似文献
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信息不对称、信贷配给与我国货币政策传导 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
信贷渠道是我国货币政策传导的主要渠道。本文从信贷市场上信息不对称和信贷配给的角度分析了我国货币政策传导的障碍,信息不对称和信贷配给的存在影响货币政策效力的原因,并对货币政策传导机制的改进提出对策探讨。 相似文献
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股票市场对实体经济的影响日益重要,股市传导货币政策是其中的表现之一。文章从货币政策的中介目标和终结目标的两个角度入手,从理论上解析股票市场传导货币政策的机制,继而通过逐一分析我国股市对货币供应量、信贷传导、投资和消费的作用关系,全方位剖析我国股市传导货币政策的效果,得出当前股市传导货币政策效果较低的结论,并就此提出相关建议。 相似文献
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我国货币政策影响投资的渠道分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
货币政策对投资的影响有利率和信贷两渠道,本文拟通过实证分析来验证当前我国贷币政策是通过利率渠道还是银行信贷渠道对投资产生影响,并对其成因作了简要分析,同时还对我国货币政策制定及今后货币政策传导机制发展取向提出了建议。 相似文献
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货币政策的传导渠道一般分为货币和信贷两大渠道。本文采用相关系数、单位根检验、协整理论和格兰杰因果检验对我国转轨经济下2000~2007年季度数据进行实证分析,结果表明货币渠道或信贷渠道不能独立对货币政策的传导发挥作用而是需要共同作用影响经济总产出,且相比而言货币渠道更为重要。在转轨经济下,短期完善信贷渠道长期规划货币渠道成为提高货币政策传导有效性的关键。 相似文献
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对我国货币政策传导渠道低效的问题,许多学者进行了有益的探索。本文认为,随着我国经济改革的深入,支撑我国传统的以信贷渠道为主的货币政策传导机制的环境条件发生了改变,是我国货币政策传导低效的主要原因。加快金融领域的改革,特别是利率市场化的改革,在完善信贷传导渠道的同时,尽快建立以货币渠道为主的传导机制,才是提高我国货币政策传导效率的有效途径。 相似文献
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Danbee Park 《Global Economic Review》2017,46(1):33-46
This study empirically estimates credit channel of the monetary policy and corporate stock return using daily stock return data including the sample with non-financial firms listed in Korea stock exchange (KOSPI). Empirical results support that changes in the basis rate turn out to increase equity returns in case of the firms with higher credit rating compared to the previous year. The estimation results confirm the conjecture that monetary policy has a significant impact on stock market through the channel of changes in credit rating. 相似文献
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文章选取2005年5月到2011年6月的月度数据,运用VEC模型对外汇储备对股票市场价格的影响进行了实证分析。结果显示,外汇储备是通过宏观层面的流动性对股市产生影响,外汇储备和货币供应量对股票市场价格的影响均比较小,主要原因是其传导机制比较复杂,且我国对信贷资金流入股市采取十分严厉的限制。相应地,文章提出了加强对流入股市热钱的监管;加强非流通股股东解禁的管理;深化一级市场改革发行制度,积极发展债券、期货等资本市场;完善宏观调控手段以及坚持严格信贷资金流入股市等政策建议。 相似文献
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现有的研究表明,影响信用利差的因素是多方面的,既包括信用风险因素,也包括宏观因素、股票市场表现等非信用风险因素。文章对比分析了信用利差量化研究的典型方法,并从信用风险因素、宏观因素、股票市场影响等几个角度综述了对信用利差影响因素的主要文献。通过对比分析,文章发现上述因素对不同等级债券的影响程度存在一定程度的差异。 相似文献
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2007年由美国引发的次级贷款危机给美国经济带来不小的影响,使金融市场动荡,美元走低,股市大幅跌荡,经济下滑明显,同时也通过全球金融传导机制迅速扩散到其他国家,对全球经济的冲击不可小觑,其影响到现在还在持续,再次成为非传统安全威胁的典型事件。本文通过美国次贷危机对我国的影响进行分析,阐述我国必须健全防范非传统安全金融威胁机制,化解金融市场风险,维护金融稳定,同时加强与国际社会的对话和协调,共同应对非传统安全威胁带来的挑战。 相似文献
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This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state. 相似文献
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We consider the roles of monetary shocks and tightening credit market conditions in the transmission of South Korea's 1997 financial crisis to the real sector, and compare the relative impacts of these factors on production in light and heavy industries. Using structural regression equations, vector autoregressive models, and the accompanying dynamic forecasts, we find that the ratio of commercial bills dishonored to the total value of bills to be cleared can explain the decline in industrial production more fully than either the decline in the real stock of money or the spread between yields on corporate and government bonds. These results are most emphatic in light industry, for which small and medium-sized firms account for more than 70% of the total value added. Since fluctuations in the dishonored bills ratio may reflect components related to increases in the cost of credit intermediation and its effect on small and medium-sized firms more precisely than the corporate-government bond spread, we interpret the evidence as suggestive of a credit channel and “flight to quality” at work. 相似文献