Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion

The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.     

Estimating the impact of airport privatization on airline demand: A regression-based event study

This paper develops an empirical model of passenger demand for routes of airports subject to either imminent or recent privatization. We investigate whether the privatization process produces a sequential impact over traffic. By employing a regression-based event methodology and controlling for fixed effects, price endogeneity and sample selection, we perform an econometric analysis of pre-privatization and post-privatization dynamic patterns of demand to infer the demand consequences of the major change in airport governance. We examine recent Brazilian airport privatization experience as a case. The main results suggest that privatization produced an overall increase in airline demand and that the airport notably recognized with the greatest demand potential and with the largest market penetration of a fast-growing low cost newcomer had the highest estimated ceteris paribus effect of privatization on demand.     

Monopoly and optimal nonlinear pricing: the case of route monopolies and heteregeneous demand in the air transport market

This paper explores the robustness of the one-dimensional screening model with respect to increasing the number of instruments and the number of characteristics. We study a case of nonlinear pricing (2 instruments (2 routes on which the airline provides customers with services), 2 characteristics (demand of services on these routes) and two values per characteristic (a low or a high demand of services on these routes)) and we show that none of the conclusions of the one-dimensional analysis remain valid. In particular, upward incentive compatibility constraint may be binding at the optimum. As a consequence, they may be distortion at the top of the distribution. In addition to this, we show that the optimal solution often requires bundling, while it is sometimes optimal for the monopolist to produce only one good or to exclude some buyers from the market. This means that the monopolist cannot fully apply his monopoly power and is better off selling two goods independently. We define all possible solutions in the case of a quadratic cost function for a uniform distribution of agent types and demonstrate that the range of services proposed by an airline is often larger than the corresponding range in demand.     

Searching for the sweet spot: The determinants of direct services from Canadian airports

In markets for scheduled passenger travel services, demand may be not independent of supply. On airline routes the speed, convenience and frequency of services affect demand along with price and other economic factors. This generates the possibility of multiple equilibria. For 185 domestic Canada and trans-border city-pair routes, of which 101 currently lack non-stop service, we find that twelve of the latter (all trans-border routes) have a “sweet spot” – although current passenger numbers do not justify non-stop service, were this to be introduced, it would turn out to be economically justified by the boost in the attractiveness of the route.     

Entry effect of low-cost carriers on airport-pairs demand model using market concentration approach

The trend of open sky policies and growth of low-cost airlines, the topic of airport-pairs demand is gradually being addressed in the golden aviation circle of Northeast Asia. The variety of flight services among the four major metropolises with dual-airport systems leads to a competition-cooperation relationship existing between various airports and airlines. Therefore, this study investigates the causal relationship between the route-level passenger demand and influential factors using aggregate data collected through website observations. The empirical study focuses on direct flights of airport-pair routes among Taipei, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo. Results of the passenger regression model indicate that frequency, code-share, and morning flights have positive impacts on increasing passenger numbers for airlines. Further, the market concentration degree of Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and entry effect of low-cost carriers are important for the route-level passenger demand. In addition, routes with departures and arrivals in hub airports have a considerable attraction relative to other airport-pair routes. Finally, the proposed passenger model performs well in predicting market share, especially for routes with high demand.     

A novel model to manage air cargo disruptions caused by global catastrophes such as Covid-19

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has drastically disrupted the air cargo industry. This disruption has taken many directions, one of which is the demand imbalance which occurs due to the sudden change in the cargo capacity, as well as demand. Therefore, the random change leads to excessive demand in some routes (hot-selling routes), while some other routes suffer from a big shortage of demand (underutilized routes). Routes are substitutable when there are several adjacent airports in the Origin & Destination (O&D) market. In this market, demand imbalance between substitutable routes occurs because of the above reasons. To tackle the demand imbalance problem, a novel model is introduced to estimate the quantity combinations which maintains the balance between underutilized and hot-selling routes. This model is a variant of the classic Cournot model which captures different quantity scenarios in the form of the best response for each route compared to the other. We then cultivate the model by integrating the Puppet Cournot game with the quantity discount policy. The quantity discount policy is an incentive which motivates the freight forwarders to increase their orders in the underutilized routes. After conducting numerical experiments, the results reveal that the profit can increase up to 25% by using the quantity discount. However, the quantity discount model is only applicable when the profit increase in the hot-selling route is greater than the profit decrease in the underutilized route.     

Latent class models of international air carrier choice

This paper uses a market segmentation approach to identify airline passengers’ potential segments and preferences toward international air carriers. The modeling approaches consist of the stated preference method and the latent class model. The stated choice experiments were designed based on service attributes in the international airline choice context. Empirical data was collected from airline passengers who have flown from Taipei to Tokyo or from Taipei to Hong Kong. The latent class model accommodating preference heterogeneity outperforms the multinomial logit model as indication of a better approach to analyze airline choice behavior. The latent class model with individual socioeconomic and trip characteristics in segment membership functions also improved model fit relative to the corresponding latent class model without individual characteristics. The values of willingness to pay for service attribute improvements vary across international air routes and segments. Passengers are willing to pay more for better service quality. In order to develop effective marketing and operational strategies for the international air travel market, this study highlights the importance of exploring airline choice behaviors by routes and segments.     

The impact of airport fees on fares for the leisure air travel market: The case of Spain

Panel data is used to determine the incidence of airport fees on fares in the Spanish leisure market airlines. We also study its structure through an empirical specification of a pricing and demand equation system. The results show the existence of market power, strategic behavior and density economics. We also demonstrate that airlines pass all the airport fees onto customers by increasing fares. Furthermore, we find that the behavior of airlines in routes with the presence of low cost carriers do not differ from other routes.     

Route churn: an analysis of low-cost carrier route continuity in Europe

Discontinuity of air routes is a subject that has been analysed in various ways. For example, the complex network approach focuses on network robustness and resilience due to route interruptions during a relatively short period. Also seasonal interruptions of air routes are a well-documented phenomenon in the context of demand variability. However, only recently discussions emerge on the more permanent cessation of air routes, the route churn. Today, European low-cost carriers frequently apply route churn in their networks. To enable early route churn detection in these networks, a regression model is developed in which route characteristics explain the churning likelihood of individual routes. The results of the econometric analysis show that churn rates are higher during an economic downturn, within the Eastern European market, between the Eastern and the Mediterranean market and between primary airports. In addition, we find that distance and the number of seats offered have a significant negative effect on the churn likelihood. The results also show significant effects of market share, seasonality and route age on the chance of cessation. To conclude, the paper demonstrates substantial differences in churn behaviour amongst specific low-cost carriers.     

Stated-preference analysis to estimate the domestic transport demand following the future entry of LCCs and the inauguration of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan

Using a stated-preference survey, we examine changes in air transport demand by the entry of low cost carriers into domestic service, and with the beginning of operation of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen. In order to construct a choice model, we estimate the Nested-Logit model parameters by the two kinds of travel purposes in order to consider the differences in the price-sensitivity between business and non-business travelers. Simulation results for the each targeted OD vary in the shares of each transportation mode, depending upon the travel times, the aviation network, travel purpose. Non-business travelers who are more price-sensitive are less likely to choose the Linear Chuo Shinkansen with higher fares. On the route between the metropolitan area and Kinki area, total aviation demand will increase by the entry of LCCs to/from Tokyo-Haneda airport even when the Linear Chuo Shinkansen begins operating, showing that the development of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen service will not prevent strong growth in aviation demand for the trunk domestic routes.     

The impact of flight delays on passenger demand and societal welfare

US airline passengers increasingly have access to flight delay information from online sources. As a result, air passenger travel decisions can be expected to be influenced by delay information. In addition, delays affect airline operations, resulting in increased block times on routes and, in general, higher carrier costs and airfares. This paper examines the impact of flight delays on both passenger demand and airfares. Delays are calculated against scheduled block times as well as against more idealized feasible flight times. Based on econometric estimations, welfare impacts of flight delays are calculated. We find that flight delays on a route reduce passenger demand and raise airfares, producing significant decreases in both consumer and producer welfare. Since producer welfare effects are estimated to be three times as large as consumer welfare effects, we conclude that from an economic efficiency rationale, airlines should be required to pay for the bulk of flight delay remediation efforts.     

Airline new route selection using compromise programming - The case of Taiwan-Europe

The decision to launch a new route has a huge effect on the outcomes of airlines in the market. In order to find potential destinations for airlines, this paper utilizes a compromise programming method for selecting direct flight routes. The selection framework comprises two objective functions, with one maximizing total revenue and the other minimizing total cost. A case studying Taiwan-European region destinations is interpreted in the analysis. The results indicate that four potential routes, including Madrid, Milan, Munich and Zurich should be added to the airlines’ service destinations. Therefore, this research suggested that the airport authority could apply incentives scheme to attract carriers to open new routes and add flight frequencies to strengthen its competitiveness.     

Mapping causalities of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets

The introduction of low-cost air transport services to short-haul routes has significantly shaped the structure of this market segment. Recent research investigates and discusses the transferability of the low-cost carrier business model to long-haul routes and identifies respective challenges such as lower cost advantages over the competing full-service network business model. Our paper complements the existing research with a review of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets and the subsequent development of a causal loop diagram of the transatlantic air transport market using systems thinking. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of specific characteristics regarding airline operations in the transatlantic air transport market to investigate the market potential of long-haul low-cost carriers competing with full-service network carriers in this market. We implement these characteristics in a causal loop diagram which comprises the most important elements of and causalities within the long-haul air transport market that affect the development of these elements. These include the generation of transatlantic air transport demand, passenger choice, and airline ticket price and fleet development. The causal loop diagram serves as a framework for qualitative investigation of the market potential of long-haul low-cost services. The paper proves systems thinking to be a feasible approach to map causalities based on knowledge from scientific literature.     

Representing pedestrian activity in travel demand models: Framework and application

There have long been calls for better pedestrian planning tools within travel demand models, as they have been slow to incorporate the large body of research connecting the built environment and walking behaviors. Most regional travel demand forecasting performed in practice in the US uses four-step travel demand models, despite advances in the development and implementation of activity-based travel demand models. This paper introduces a framework that facilitates the abilities of four-step regional travel models to better represent walking activity, allowing metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to implement these advances with minimal changes to existing modeling systems. Specifically, the framework first changes the spatial unit from transportation analysis zones (TAZs) to a finer-grained geography better suited to modeling pedestrian trips. The MPO's existing trip generation models are applied at this spatial unit for all trips. Then, a walk mode choice model is used to identify the subset of all trips made by walking. Trips by other modes are aggregated to the TAZ level and proceed through the remaining steps in the MPO's four-step model. The walk trips are distributed to destinations using a choice modeling approach, thus identifying pedestrian trip origins and destinations. In this paper, a proof-of-concept application is included to demonstrate the framework in successful operation using data from the Portland, Oregon, region. Opportunities for future work include more research on the potential routes between origins and destinations for walk trips, application of the framework in another region, and developing ways the research could be implemented in activity-based modeling systems.     

A matheuristic approach to the air-cargo recovery problem under demand disruption

Air cargo transport is subject to unpredictable changes in expected demand, necessitating adjustments to itinerary planning to recover from such disruptions. We study a flight rescheduling problem to react to cargo demand disruptions in the short run. To increase flexibility, we consider two different cargo assignment policies. We propose a matheuristic approach to solve the problem that provides high-quality solutions in a short computational time, based on column generation in which each subproblem is solved using an ad-hoc heuristic. The approach is tested on demand disruption instances containing up to 75 air cargo orders with different penalty levels. The results show that the proposed method improves profit by 54% over the solution generated by a commercial MIP solver within a 1-h time limit, and by 15% over the solution with the routes fixed as in the original flight planning that only allows cargo to be re-routed. We also show that there exist incremental benefits in the range of 3–5% by allowing cargo for a given order to be transported by various aircraft.     

Freight train scheduling with elastic demand

A train slot selection model based on multicommodity network flow concepts is developed for determining freight train timetables for scheduling rail services along multiple interconnected routes. The model seeks to minimize operating costs incurred by carriers and delays incurred by shippers while ensuring that the schedules and demand levels are mutually consistent. A column generation-based methodology is proposed for train slot selection to meet frequency requirements. This methodology is embedded in a simulation-based iterative framework, where demand for rail services is re-computed in accordance with the train schedule obtained by solving the freight train scheduling problem.     

Drivers of long-haul air transport route development

An analysis of long-haul routes identifies trends and patterns underlying their development. Five distinct perspectives: geography, regulation, manufacturers, passengers and airlines are taken to investigate the drivers of long-haul route development. From the insights gained it is inferred that the demand for long-haul aircraft is a complex function thereof, whereby long-haul routes are operated between cities with strong business and social connections as influenced by the dynamics of change and underlying geography.     

Patterns of maritime supply chains: slot capacity analysis

This paper offers a tool for analysing patterns of maritime supply chains. The study uses empirical data on slot capacity deployed by container shipping lines for analysing ports (as nodes) and routes and shipping lines (as links) that are embedded within the maritime supply chain. The ports of Singapore and Hong Kong are chosen to illustrate the respective transhipment and gateway perspectives. Findings reveal that geographical location and changes in the constitution of players can have reverberations on the maritime supply chain dynamics that traverse the port. Furthermore, evidence from trade route data also shows that maritime supply chain dynamics associated with transhipment and gateway ports could be governed by different levels of scope economies, demand complementarity and market power. The paper illustrates the abundant potential of slot capacity analysis for academic and industry/market research. Thus, future research can be pursued in various contexts and for different applications.     

Airport and route classification by modelling flight delay propagation

Flight delay can be divided into the root and propagated delays for identification and analysis of airports/routes that have a great influence on actual flight delay using flight operations raw data (tower logs) for South Korean domestic flights. In addition, the presented concept of “generated delay” classifies airports as affecting other airport delays or affected by other airport delays. The generated delay refers to the delay time at a particular airport/route, and this delay thereafter actually propagates to other airports/routes. In this study, the generated and propagated delays were displayed on a two-dimensional graph, and the airports/routes were grouped according to delay characteristics. Group A represented airports with high generated and propagated delays, and group B represented airports that are highly affected by delays of preceding airports/routes. Group C represents airports where newly formed delays affect other airport delays, but these airports mitigate delays from other airports. Airports in group D have relatively low delays and propagation. Thus, we targeted airports belonging to groups A and C because of their delay propagation impact on other routes/airports, which must be reduced by decreasing the root delay from targeted routes/airports. Among the airports, Jeju international airport (CJU) had the highest average delay time and propagated flight delay time with similar averaged generated delay times. Among the routes, departure flights from various airports to CJU had significant propagation effects on the subsequent flights. CJU and related routes have a very large impact on domestic flight delays because South Korean domestic airline routes are concentrated on CJU. However, there has been no quantitative analysis, and it is meaningful that the quantitative analysis results were presented in this study. In addition, we suggest that other airports such as GMP (Gimpo), CJJ (Cheongju), WJU (Wonju), and KUV (Gunsan) have a significant impact on domestic flight delays.     

Evaluating sustainability and land use integration of BRT stations via extended node place model,an application on BRT stations of Tehran

Modern transportation planners and urban designers are looking for a practical solution toward sustainable, accessible, and cost-effective development of public transportation. Achieving a well-balanced transit-oriented development (TOD) requires a clear illustration of the existing public transportation, land use, and correlations between them. Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a well-known strategy toward developing high-quality transit networks and would be a reasonable transportation choice if allied with a suitable walkable design in surrounding areas. In this paper, the node-place model is developed and applied on BRT stations in Tehran to be analyzed and clustered using three extended TOD indicators. The design index, representing the accessibility and walking potential, is further improved by measuring spatial specifications and walkway density parameters. Furthermore, the place index, representing demand and land use specifications of the area, is investigated through the calculation of possible destination points (PDPs) in the vicinity of stations. The model is reapplied after correlation analyses on input data to find stations' behavior by using more effective parameters. The results indicate that appropriate access to the stations requires a tight network of walkways that offers multiple routes to the stations. Meanwhile, a dense and sophisticated pedestrian area needs to offer short routes with minimum turns required to reach the station. Moreover, in each station, some factors are found to be more dominating. Changes in these factors have more profound effects than other factors. This paper aims to identify these factors and help planners develop TOD areas sustainably.