中国经济的两大转型:货币国际化与收入分配

2011年很可能是中国故事的一个新起点.这一故事由两部分组成:一是对外的货币国际化必将进入加速通道,当然,其负面作用是贸易顺差对中国经济增长的拉动力仍将持续萎缩;二是收入分配体制改革进入不得不操作的时间点,其中的政策疑虑在于是否会系统性地提高中国的通货膨胀中枢水平.本文据此提出四个预测性结论:第一,中国面临人民币国际化的关键时期,这将推动中国由外贸顺差主导型增长结构向内需主导型增长模式转型:第二,中国的收入分配改革是一个被动但必须进行的改革,原因在于中国的全要素生产率已经持续下降,且这一改革不会造成通货膨胀快速上行:第三,留给我们的转型时间很短--2011到2013年的两年资本流入期将是实现上述两大转型取得实质性进展的重要时间框架,否则很可能出现断裂--修复式经济增长格局;第四,2011年是上述两大转型元年,由此可以对短期经济运行和政策趋势作出相应判断--货币政策收缩和财政政策扩张组合.     

Testing limits to policy reversal: Evidence from Indian privatizations

We examine the effect of regime change on privatization. In the 2004 Indian election, the pro-reform BJP was unexpectedly defeated by a less reformist coalition. Stock prices of government-controlled companies that had been slated for privatization by the BJP dropped 3.5% relative to private firms. Government-controlled companies that were under study for possible privatization fell 7.5% relative to private firms. This is consistent with investor belief of a “point of no return,” where advanced reforms are more difficult to reverse. Further analysis suggests that layoffs, combined with the privatization announcement, served as a credible commitment to privatize.     

The theory of optimal taxation: what is the policy relevance?

The paper discusses the implications of optimal tax theory for the debates on uniform commodity taxation and neutral capital income taxation. While strong administrative and political economy arguments in favor of uniform and neutral taxation remain, recent advances in optimal tax theory suggest that the information needed to implement the differentiated taxation prescribed by optimal tax theory may be easier to obtain than previously believed. The paper also points to the strong similarity between optimal commodity tax rules and the rules for optimal source-based capital income taxation.      

Transitions: Taking complexity seriously

The aim of this paper is to make the case for a systematic engagement of transition studies with complexity theory and research. We argue that transition research is important for the understanding and development of possible sustainable future pathways. However, there are several controversies in transition research, including, the role of agency in transitions; the relationships between levels (niche, regime and landscapes); the origin of transitions; the identification of a transition, including starting and ending point of transition processes; and the paradox of replicability and scaling up of independent experiments. We argue that transition research, and future studies can benefit from taking complexity theory seriously. In the paper, we elaborate four insights from complexity studies that can move the research agenda of transition studies forward: empirically investigating the degree of complexity of a system; investigating complexity at the level of the policy-making system; longitudinal and retrospective research designs for the identification of transitions; methodological tools which accommodate complexity, such as agent-based modeling and ARIMA modeling. Further, we suggest how these can improve our knowledge of transitions towards sustainable future.     

The expectations theory works for monetary policy shocks

In practice, the expectations theory of the term structure is employed extensively in monetary policy analysis despite its empirical failure. This paper performs a conditional test of the theory that is directly relevant to monetary theory and policy. It finds that the theory holds quite well conditional on identified monetary policy shocks, but fails conditional on aggregate supply shocks that prompt an immediate jump in prices. It also finds that policy responses to movements in the term structure play an important role in uncovering evidence for the theory as predicted by McCallum [1994. Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates. NBER Working Paper Series, no. 4938].     

中企海外拓展新舞步

热情奔放的国标舞曲响起,曾经羞涩内敛的中国企业纷纷滑入国际市场的大舞池,寻找舞伴,翩翩起舞。战略、技术、价值,都成为新舞步的标志音符。     

Target zones in theory and history: Credibility, efficiency, and policy autonomy

An experiment with an exchange-rate band in Austria-Hungary in the early 20th century provides a rare opportunity to discuss critical aspects of the theory of target zones. Providing a new derivation of the target zone model as a set of nested hypotheses, the inference is drawn that policy credibility and market efficiency were paramount in the success of the Austro-Hungarian experience.     

1999-2001年欧洲央行的货币政策:理论依据与实际操作

本文分析了1999-2001年欧元疲软时期欧洲央行的货币政策.论文认为,以"一个目标,两根支柱"为主要内容的欧洲央行货币政策,其理论依据自相矛盾一方面是货币主义的单一规则(第一根支柱),一方面是凯恩斯主义的相机抉择规则(第二根支柱).因而,欧洲央行的货币政策导向很不明确、公众很难理解.由于欧元的疲软和美元的主导,欧洲央行实际执行了汇率导向的货币政策,而没有实现物价稳定目标.欧元区的实践证明,浮动汇率不能自动提高一国自主实行本国导向的货币政策的能力,加强货币政策的国际合作势在必行.     

Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data

The evidence suggests that monetary policy post 1988 became more forward-looking, invalidating the identifying assumptions in conventional methods of measuring monetary policy's effects, leading to spurious and unlikely results for this period. We propose a new identification scheme that uses factors extracted from Fed Funds futures to measure exogenous changes in policy. Using this shock series in a VAR, we recover the contractionary effect of monetary tightening on output. Moreover, we find that as much as half of the variability in output was driven by monetary policy shocks, and that there is a mild price puzzle.     

A bridge from ruin theory to credit risk

The structural model uses the firm-value process and the default threshold to obtain the implied credit spread. Merton’s (J Finance 29:449–470, 1974) credit spread is reported too small compared to the observed market spread. Zhou (J Bank Finance 25:2015–2040, 2001) proposes a jump-diffusion firm-value process and obtains a credit spread that is closer to the observed market spread. Going in a different direction, the reduced-form model uses the observed market credit spread to obtain the probability of default and the mean recovery rate. We use a jump-diffusion firm-value process and the observed credit spread to obtain the implied jump distribution. Therefore, the discrepancy in credit spreads between the structural model and the reduced-form model can be removed. From the market credit spread, we obtain the implied probability of default and the mean recovery rate. When the solvency-ratio process in credit risk and the surplus process in ruin theory both follow jump-diffusion processes, we show a bridge between ruin theory and credit risk so that results developed in ruin theory can be used to develop analogous results in credit risk. Specifically, when the jump is Logexponentially distributed, it results in a Beta distributed recovery rate that is close to market experience. For bonds of multiple seniorities, we obtain closed-form solutions of the mean and variance of the recovery rate. We prove that the defective renewal equation still holds, even if the jumps are possibly negative. Therefore, we can use ruin theory as a methodology for assessing credit ratings.      

The CBO's policy analysis: An unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory

The analyses of fiscal and monetary policies that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides Congress tend to be biased, encouraging the use of activist stabilization policies. The CBO's virtual neglect of economic uncertainties and its emphasis on very short time horizons make active policies appear much more attractive than its own model implies. Moreover, the CBO 's adoption of the macroeconometric approach fundamentally biases its analyses. Macroeconometric models do not remain invariant to changes in policy rules and are mute on the implications of alternative policies for efficiency and income distribution. The rational expectations equilibrium approach overcomes these difficulties and implies that less activist and less inflationary policies are desirable.     

股市牛转熊与货币政策调整

去年确定的货币政策从紧在当时无疑是正确的,而且也已经产生了积极的效果。但现在美联储大幅度连续降息,股市房市双双“熄火”,货币政策从紧的基调应该调整为“收而不紧”,也就是只收不紧,在公开市场积极回收以往过度发行的货币,但不再直接收紧银根。简言之就是“三不一升”：第一不提高利率,第二不提高准备金率,第三不限制消费信贷,第四要加速人民币升值。     

Executive incentives and payout policy: Empirical evidence from Europe

We investigate how corporate payout policy is influenced by executive incentives, i.e. stock and option holdings, stock option deltas and stock-based pay-performance sensitivity for 1,650 publicly listed firms from the UK, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, over the period from 2002 to 2009. Our results show that executive stock option holdings and stock option deltas are associated with lower dividend payments in our sample of European countries, where we do not observe any presence of dividend protection for executive stock options. We find that this relationship is mainly driven by exercisable stock options and by options that are in the money. Additionally, we observe that executive stock option holdings and stock option deltas have a negative impact on total payout, suggesting that executives do not substitute share repurchases for dividends. Furthermore, the fraction of share repurchases in total payout increases as executive stock option holdings and stock option deltas increase. Finally, our results show that executive share ownership and stock-based pay-performance sensitivity may mitigate agency conflicts by significantly increasing the level of total payout.     

Ownership structure and dividend policy: Evidence from Italian firms

Abstract

This paper reports on empirical investigations into the relationship between dividend policy and ownership structure of firms, using a sample of 139 listed Italian companies. Ownership structure in Italy is highly concentrated and hence the relevant agency problem to analyse seems to be the one that arises from the conflicting interests of large shareholders and minority shareholders. This paper therefore attempts to test the rent extraction hypothesis by relating the firm’s dividend payout ratio to various ownership variables, which measure the degree of concentration in terms of the voting rights of large shareholders. The hypothesis that other non-controlling large shareholders may have incentives to monitor the largest shareholder is also tested. The results of the empirical analysis reveal that firms make lower dividend payouts as the voting rights of the largest shareholder increase. Results also suggest that the presence of agreements among large shareholders might explain the limited monitoring power of other ‘strong’ non-controlling shareholders.     

Small business tax policy and informality: evidence from Georgia

Using a panel of administrative data and regression discontinuity analysis, this paper examines how the introduction of preferential tax regimes for Georgian micro- and small businesses in 2010 affected formal firm creation and tax compliance. The results show that the new tax regime for micro-businesses increased the number of newly registered firms by 27–41 % below the eligibility threshold during the first year of the reform, but not in subsequent years. We do not find an effect of the new tax regime for small businesses on formal firm creation in any year. Policy makers are often also concerned about abuse risks stemming from differentiated tax treatment of micro- and small businesses. The analysis in this paper reveals reduced tax compliance among small taxpayers for multiple years after the reform and among micro-business taxpayers only during the first year of the reform.     

The Squam Lake Report: Observations from two policy professionals

The Squam Lake Report (SLR) contains a host of recommendations to “fix the financial sector.” A credible fix must take on the excessive risk-taking of financial institutions created when uninsured creditors of important financial institutions expect government protection from loss (i.e., the too-big-to-fail problem). The vast majority of SLR’s recommendations constitute important contributions to addressing TBTF; the analysis offered in support of recommendations is sound and brings modern economics and finance to bear. The clarity and focus of SLR offers a model for academics writing for a policy audience.We differ in emphasis with SLR on a few issues, including capital and living wills, but support moving forward with the core of SLR’s recommendations even in these cases.Legislation (i.e., “Dodd-Frank”) seeking to fix the financial sector became law around the time SLR was published. The legislation includes in one form or another the predominance of credible recommendations made to address TBTF, including the majority of those in SLR. The ultimate success of the legislation, however, depends on implementation. We hope the government focuses on a macroprudential regime that reduces fallout from financial spillovers, considers new efforts to measure and tax expected TBTF subsidies, and reconsiders aspects of Dodd-Frank that expand the safety net. Given the stakes, another SLR-caliber effort, this time centered on Dodd-Frank implementation, promises high returns.     

Determinants of corporate cash policy: Insights from private firms

We provide one of the first large sample comparisons of cash policies in public and private U.S. firms. We first show that despite higher financing frictions, private firms hold, on average, about half as much cash as public firms do. By examining the drivers of cash policies for each group, we are able to attribute the difference to the much higher agency costs in public firms. By combining evidence from across public and private firms as well as within public firms across different qualities of governance, we are able to reconcile existing mixed evidence on the effects of agency problems on cash policies. Specifically, agency problems affect not only the target level of cash, but also how managers react to cash in excess of the target.     

How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal

This paper uses a model with a continuum of equilibrium steady state unemployment rates to explore the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The existence of multiple steady state equilibria is explained by the presence of search and recruiting costs. I use the model to explain the current financial crisis as a shift to a high unemployment equilibrium, induced by the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants about asset prices. I ask two questions. (1) Can fiscal policy help us out of the crisis? (2) Is there an alternative to fiscal policy that is less costly and more effective? The answer to both questions is yes.