湖南金融生态环境的现状与优化路径

和谐的金融生态环境对于区域经济和金融的发展具有重要的现实意义。近年来,湖南金融生态环境得到了一定改善,但还存在经济基础欠佳、地方金融发展滞后、信用中介市场发育缓慢、地方政府公共服务缺失等问题,因此,优化产业结构、加快地方金融发展、培育信用中介市场、完善地方政府公共服务等,对优化湖南金融生态环境,实现湖南经济与金融发展的良性互动至关重要。     

Fund Mobilization and Investment Behavior in Thai Manufacturing Firms in the Early 1990s*

This paper investigates capital structure and investment behavior in Thailand in the early 1990s. Various features of financial markets are considered, and the possibility of applying the ‘pecking order hypothesis’ to developing countries is discussed. By estimating the determinants of the capital structure and the investment functions, three major results are obtained. First, the lower debt ratio of listed firms is realized by an increase in the capital surplus gained by initial public offering. Second, firms’ participation in the securities market accommodates agency costs both in the equity and bank‐loan markets. Third, ‘financial conglomerate’ firms are inactive investors and are dependent upon informal financial transactions, whereas foreign firms borrow less and invest more.     

安徽省金融结构与产业结构关系的实证分析

从安徽产业结构和金融结构关系的分析入手,针对二者之间的互动关系,建立向量自回归（VAR）模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术得出：在产业发展过程中,直接金融和间接金融共同成为产业结构转换的实现机制,二者在促进产业结构优化升级方面发挥着重要作用;而产业结构的优化进程的加快是安徽资本市场不断完善的较大推动力。这为安徽省产业结构调整和金融体制改革提供了一些可以借鉴的依据。     

中国互联网金融现状及风险研究

互联网金融在中国发展的如火如荼,扩大了金融服务的边界和市场。但是互联网金融业有相应的信用风险、市场选择风险、技术风险和法律风险,这些风险都加大了金融市场不稳定的可能性。故互联网金融企业应加强安全体系、风险控制体系建设,政府加大立法力度,共同防范互联网金融风险。     

大湄公河区域国家经济金融一体化实证研究

大湄公河区域是东亚经济一体化速度最快的次区域之一。区域内国家经济增长的谐动性呈现出总体上升的态势;次区域经济一体化的贸易创造效应显著;各国经济金融开放度不断提高,多数国家金融一体化进程加快;各国金融市场波动联系显著。中国应为取得合作中的主导地位制定行动计划,并重视沿边省份作用的发挥。     

Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

信贷紧缩环境下我国农村金融市场的潜在风险及防范对策——以美国、法国为例

本文以市场经济条件下深化我国农村金融体制改革为导向,在深入探讨当前信贷紧缩政策对我国农村金融市场重要影响的基础上,分析了其可能产生的潜在风险及形成机理,进而结合美法两国调控本国农村金融市场的经验,提出了相应的防范对策。     

Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

对金融深化理论与实践的探讨

自从20世纪70年代初美国经济学家麦金农(RonaldMckin-non)和肖(EdwardShaw)提出金融深化以来,该理论逐渐发展成为发展经济学的重要组成部分,并对广大发展中国家的经济实践产生了巨大的影响。本文在对金融深化理论进行综述和评价的基础上,结合发展中国家特别是中国的金融改革实践,对金融深化理论和实现路径提出了一些看法。     

Legal frameworks and credit information systems in China,Korea, and Singapore

We analyse the relationship between Public Credit Registries and Credit Bureaus in East Asia by observing credit information markets, in particular, in China, Singapore, and Korea. Singapore's credit information system consists of only a Credit Bureau. China and Korea have gone in different directions. Public Credit Registries play the role of credit information sharing in China, while Public Credit Registries and Credit Bureaus coexist in Korea. The results suggest an important relationship between the development of financial markets and credit information systems. The lower the income level and the heavier the government's hand in financial markets, the greater the need for Public Credit Registries; whereas, financial liberalisation and rising incomes encourage Credit Bureaus.     

金融税制与货币政策效应

金融税制是一国管理金融活动的有关税收的法律法规的总和。金融税制影响金融市场效率和各类金融活动主体的行为，通过利率传导机制和信贷配给传导机制对货币政策效应产生影响。为保证货币政策能顺利传导，我国目前应进一步完善针对金融市场的流转税和所得税制度，对商业银行不宜取消现行的营业税或急剧降低营业税税率，应针对不同业务细化和完善相关的流转税制度。     

金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率：来自中国省域的证据

文章将金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率整合在一个统一的分析框架中,考察了开放经济下金融发展在促进贸易规模扩大、贸易结构优化,并进而促进全要素生产率增长中的内在机理。实证结果表明,金融发展不仅能够促进贸易规模的扩大,而且还能促使贸易结构优化。但是从具体的金融指标来看,只有中长期贷款余额的增加和以存贷比表示的金融发展效率的提升才能产生贸易规模和贸易结构效应,而贷款总量的增加并不能产生这种效应。并基于这一结论,用金融发展对贸易影响的回归拟和值来考察全要生产率增长的情况,证明了金融发展通过对外贸易对全要素生产率增长的促进作用的存在性,但这种效应只有东部地区才有,中西部地区有由于金融发展水平的滞后而不存在这种效应。另外这种效应的发挥主要也是通过技术进步渠道来实现的,其对技术效率的改善作用不明显。同时在实证检验中还发现,金融发展通过对外贸易影响全要素生产率增长要受到各个地区人力资本水平的影响,即存在“人力资本门槛”效应。     

基于金融周期视角下股票市场的联动效应研究

世界经济全球化已成为趋势,发达经济体的股市之间以及发达经济体与新兴经济体股市之间的联动性也在经济全球化的趋势中更加紧密。各国金融领域以及金融市场间的快速融合,不断形成统一规范的金融行为准则,也使得全球金融周期性特征越来越明显。文章选取世界五个主要股票市场指数为研究对象,按照已有研究对全球金融周期的划分,将该样本区间分成了繁荣期、衰退期和正常期三个阶段,然后基于这三个阶段分析了在不同金融周期五国股票市场指数收益率联动效应。基于实证研究结论,认为美国和欧洲股市联动性较强,与亚洲股市联动性相对较弱,且美国和中国股市之间联动性最弱,基本捕捉不到下尾相关。相关实证结论有利于国际投资者的投资组合管理,也有助于各国股票市场的风险规避。     

农户偏好农村非正规金融的动因:理论模型与经验证据

在广大发展中国家及欠发达地区,农户参与正规金融市场的程度很低,尤其是贫困农户的参与度更低。已有的研究认为正规金融部门实施的信贷配给导致了上述现象的发生。而本文提出一个新的命题:农户偏好从非正规金融市场借款是出于成本收益的算计,是既定约束条件下的理性选择,越贫困的农户越偏好农村非正规金融市场。此外,还运用数理模型论证了该命题在理论上成立的可能性,并通过对相关调研资料的梳理及实地调研为该命题的成立提供了充分的经验证据。     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.     

浅析金融海啸中的信用卡业务风险及防范预警对策

随着我国改革开放的深入和金融市场的发展,商业银行的信用卡发行量迅速增长,并且已经成为银行利润的重要来源之一。但是从2008年美国次贷危机引起的全球金融海啸可以看出,银行的信贷业务深刻影响着经济的健康发展,信用卡业务中的潜在风险威胁着国民经济的稳定。本文从对我国信用卡业务发展现状的分析出发,针对信用卡的风险特点和目前信用卡风险管理中存在的问题进行了重点研究,提出了信用卡的风险防范及预警措施。     

A Norwegian fixation: explaining cheap money in Norway, 1945–1986

In a number of European countries, credit markets were characterised by heavy regulations of quantities and prices, in terms of interest rates, in the post war years. In Norway, the regulations became more vigorous and lasted much longer, than most other countries. This article seeks to explain the extent and persistence of the policy by tracing the role of leading economists, of financial sector, and political considerations in relation to growths policies and the housing markets. Whereas a number of factors are highlighted in the emergence of the system, the role of political considerations in relation to cheap funding for the housing sector appears as a fundamental cause and condition in explaining the persistence of the cheap money policies into the mid-1980s.     

产业结构优化中金融支持措施的国际比较及对广东的启示

金融在产业结构调整中起着重要推动作用,文章对发达国家与发展中国家在产业结构优化升级中的金融支持措施从市场性金融支持、政策性金融支持和利用外资这三方面进行比较分析,探讨这些措施对广东产业结构优化升级中实施资金配置和金融支持战略的启示。     

How to Determine the Financial Structure of an Enterprise

The financial structure is the proportion of every part of the capital in an enterprise. Whether the financial structure is scientific or not has an important impact on the risk degree, development prospect and profit-making ability of the enterprise. In this thesis, the author will discuss how to determine the financial structure of an enterprise scientifically.