House Price Dynamics in Mumbai, 1989–1995

The objective of this paper is to study the importance of price index methodology to analyzing intra-metropolitan house price variations in Mumbai. Two hedonic regression-based approaches – cross section and explicit time variable – are compared. The results indicate conclusively that the former is better than the latter. This paper also contributes to the literature on intra-metropolitan house price variations by explaining them based on urban development, population and employment patterns in Mumbai.     

基于MCLP模型的个人住房抵押贷款违约风险研究

个人住房抵押贷款一旦出现大规模的违约便会对金融体系的稳定和宏观经济的平稳运行带来很大的负面影响。通过对我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款真实数据进行分析,分离出可能对贷款履约产生影响的个人基本情况、个人信用状况以及贷款合约等15项指标。在此基础上,使用MCLP模型构建了个人住房抵押贷款违约风险模型,并比较了MCLP模型与传统Logistic模型的预测结果,发现前者具有更高的准确度。最后,基于研究结论提出了相关建议。     

Daily House Price Indices: Construction,Modeling, and Longer‐run Predictions

We construct daily house price indices for 10 major US metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat‐sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case–Shiller house price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of longer‐run monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower‐frequency data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

安利创始人之一 温安洛:亲兄弟,明算账

2004年12月7日,80岁的杰·温安洛 (Jay Van Andel)在美国密歇根州的家中去世。“我们十分悲痛”。温安洛的老乡兼老友、美国前总统福特说:“他是一个了不起的顾家男人,又是一个全球化的商业领袖。”     

Issues in measuring a monthly house price index in New Zealand

The sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method, which takes the ratios of the current house prices and their previous assessed values to construct an index, has been applied in New Zealand since the 1960s. This paper uses housing market transaction data for 12 cities in New Zealand (1994–2004) to develop monthly SPAR house price indices. These indices were subjected to a variety of statistical tests and benchmarked against the comparable monthly quality controlled weighted repeat sales indices. Finally, the paper provides some useful suggestions for future research based on the SPAR index and other alternative house price indices, such as the assessed value (AV) method.     

Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?

This paper develops large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, based on 268 quarterly series, for forecasting annualized real house price growth rates for large-, medium- and small-middle-segment housing for the South African economy. Given the in-sample period of 1980:01–2000:04, the large-scale BVARs, estimated under alternative hyperparameter values specifying the priors, are used to forecast real house price growth rates over a 24-quarter out-of-sample horizon of 2001:01–2006:04. The forecast performance of the large-scale BVARs are then compared with classical and Bayesian versions of univariate and multivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, merely comprising of the real growth rates of the large-, medium- and small-middle-segment houses, and a large-scale Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), which comprises of the same 268 variables included in the large-scale BVARs. Based on the one- to four-quarters-ahead Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) over the out-of-sample horizon, we find the large-scale BVARs to not only outperform all the other alternative models, but to also predict the recent downturn in the real house price growth rates for the three categories of the middle-segment-housing over the period of 2003:01–2008:02.     

House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations

We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. First, a stylized asset-pricing model solved under rational expectations is used to derive a fundamental value for house prices and the price–rent ratio. Although the model can explain the sample average of the price–rent ratio, it does not generate the large and persistent fluctuations observed in the data. Then, we consider a rational bubble solution, an extrapolative expectations solution and a near rational bubble solution. In this last solution agents extrapolate the future from the latest realizations and the degree of extrapolation is stronger in good times than in bad times, generating waves of over-optimism. We show that under this solution the model not only is able to match key moments of the data but can also replicate the run up in the U.S. house prices observed over the 2000–2006 period and the subsequent sharp downturn.     

Capitalization of local fiscal differentials: Inferences from a disequilibrium market model

This study analyzes tax capitalization within the framework of a disequilibrium market model. In particular, this study examines whether local fiscal differentials influence the rate of change in neighborhood house prices over time. Local fiscal differentials existing in 1970 are found to have no influence on the rate of change in neighborhood house prices over the period 1970–1972; therefore, the study concludes that, other things being equal, these local fiscal differentials have been completely capitalized in price levels.     

The down-payment constraint and UK housing market: Does the theory fit the facts?

This paper considers empirical implications of the down-payment constraint for the UK housing market. It shows that, at the aggregate-level, models of the housing market with this constraint are consistent with a number of stylized facts. The paper then exploits variation across local housing markets and considers how leverage affects the response of house price inflation to shocks. The evidence, based on data for 147 district-level housing markets for the period 1993–2002, suggests that a large incidence of households with high leverage (loan-to-value ratios) raises the sensitivity of house prices to a shock. This is also consistent with the down-payment constraint model.     

基于“云仓”模式的供应链金融贷款定价研究

为解决中小企业融资难问题,网络供应链金融的实践和理论研究得到迅速发展。"云仓"是在融通仓概念基础上提出的一种新型供应链金融融资模式,是对当前网络供应链金融的一种理论总结。基于第三方电子商务平台的"云仓"融资模式建立在云计算、云物流、物联网等技术之上,具有融资成本低、效率高和信用评估全面的特点。利用RAROC方法建立"云仓"融资模式下的贷款定价模型,能够充分利用云仓强大的信息收集功能,为金融机构规避风险、提高收益率起到积极的指导作用。     

Is the housing market set to fall?

Some analysts have suggested that house prices are set to collapse, particularly in the London area. These conclusions are generally based on a rather simple analysis of house price to income ratios. We argue that this is misleading and there is little evidence to suggest a collapse in the market.     

土地征收与房屋拆迁中的公共利益界定

作为土地征收与房屋拆迁法定原因之一的"公共利益",因其内涵模糊不清、界定主体异化,往往成为达到征收与拆迁目的的"法器"。界定公共利益,应首先设定界定标准,同时构建公共利益的评价机制。对于前者,国家须在立法上明确公共利益的内涵,同时在实践中注意多种要素的综合考量;对于后者,国家应强调立法机关与司法机关的作用,摒除行政机关的评价,并赋予被征收人、被拆迁人参与评价的权利。     

The slowdown in the timing of housing purchases in Japan in the 1990s

Housing prices are high in Japan, resulting in high mortgage payments. Since monthly mortgage payments cannot exceed 25% of current income, households tend to accumulate downpayments in the range of 30–45% of house value. This not only defers their entry into homeownership, but also has significant influence on the type of house eventually purchased. The objective of this study is to understand the changing access to ownership during the 1990s, with emphasis on wealth positions based on savings out of income, private transfers and bequests, and support from parents or other relatives. The source of data is the Ministry of Infrastructure, Land and Transportation survey on household home finance conducted from 1992 to 2000. The methodology employed is duration analysis, with special emphasis on the treatment of liquid asset covariates.     

House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership

Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in house prices. Additional results show that the idiosyncratic risk exceeds the hedging benefits of home ownership. These results imply that for many home owners, owning a house may well add more price risk than it hedges away. These findings are based on a detailed dataset of individual housing transactions in the Netherlands.     

Diverging trends in health care use between 2010 and 2016: Evidence from three groups of transition countries

This paper investigates changes in health care use in 28 transition countries using data on more than 60,000 households from the “Life in Transition” surveys II and III conducted in 2010 and 2016. Following the literature, the transition countries are divided into three groups – Eastern Europe, Southern Europe and the non-Baltic states of the former Soviet Union with Mongolia – based on the speed of their transformation. Regressions based on Andersen’s conceptual framework show no difference in public health care use between the three groups in 2010. By 2016, however, the share of households using the public health care system dropped by remarkable 17.1–22.2% points in Southern Europe and 13.5–27.1% points in the former Soviet Union with Mongolia compared to Eastern Europe. Moreover, by 2016, the probability of a household using the private health care system (with no use of public health care) in Southern Europe and the former Soviet Union was 7.5–18.7% points higher than in Eastern Europe, whereas it was 2.9–6.8% points lower than in Eastern Europe back in 2010. The analyses indicate that differences in household characteristics, as well as perceived corruption and quality of public health care, help to understand these diverging trends in health care use in the three groups of transition countries between 2010 and 2016.     

Privatisation is Not Enough

Mr Tom King, like Mr Heseltine before him, sets much store by moves to privatise by contract services now supplied by local government. John Blundell, a former Lambeth councillor, reveals the dangers of this half-way house, and explains the inability of privatisation to return to consumers control of the services they buy.     

What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis

We consider which factors determined the price–rent ratio for the housing market in 18 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and at the national level over the period of 1975–2014. Based on a present-value framework, our proposed empirical model separates the price–rent ratio for a given market into unobserved components related to the expected real rent growth and the expected housing return, but is modified from standard present-value analysis by also including a residual component that captures non-stationary deviations of the price–rent ratio from its present-value level. Estimates for the modified present-value model suggest that the present-value residual (PVR) component is always important and sometimes very large at the national and MSA levels, especially for MSAs that have experienced frequent booms and busts in the housing market. In further analysis, we find that house prices in MSAs that have larger PVR components are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes. These are also the MSAs with less elastic housing supply. Also, comparing our results with a recent statistical test for periodically-collapsing bubbles, we find that MSAs with large estimated PVR components are the same MSAs that test positively for explosive sub-periods in their price–rent ratios, especially during the 2005–2007 subsample. Our approach allows us to estimate the correlation between shocks to expected rent growth, the expected housing return, and the PVR component. We find that the expected housing return and movements in the PVR component are highly positively correlated implying an impact of the expected housing return on house prices that is amplified from what a standard present-value model would imply. Our results also show that most of the variation in the present-value component of the price–rent ratio arises due to the variation in the expected housing return.     

On nonparametric estimation of a hedonic price function

Recently, using mixed data on Canadian housing, Parmeter, Henderson, and Kumbhakar (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2007; 22 : 695–699) found that a nonparametric approach for estimating a hedonic house price function is superior to formerly suggested parametric and semiparametric specifications. We carefully reanalyze these specifications for this dataset by applying a recent nonparametric specification test and simulation‐based prediction comparisons. For the case at issue our results suggest that a previously proposed parametric specification does not have to be rejected and we illustrate how nonparametric methods provide valuable insights during all modeling steps. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend–discount model

We apply a dynamic dividend–discount model to analyse housing returns for eight euro area countries comprising over 90% of euro area GDP, both individually and as a panel. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is estimated for four variables – excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income – using quarterly data over the period 1978–2009. This empirical investigation – which allows for a decomposition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components – indicates that the bulk of the variability of euro area house price movements can be attributed to movements in fundamentals. There remains nonetheless an important but less sizeable influence of market-wide (or expected-return) variations in house prices. Country-specific estimation indicates considerable heterogeneity around the euro area result, both for what concerns long-term impacts and dynamics. Notably, changes in expected returns play a relatively strong role in the house prices of Ireland and Spain.     

Do house prices impact business starts?

At the national level, business starts and housing prices both fell dramatically over the 2007–2009 period. Using a proprietary database of business starts this paper quantitatively models the interaction between house price and business starts from 2005 to 2009. We identify the impact by exploiting the cross-sectional variation in house price changes during the period. Controlling for observable and unobservable city characteristics, we find the significance of a robust relationship between house prices and business starts depends on the size of the business starts; a robust link exists between house prices and very small business, whereas, no significant robust link is seen for large business starts.