AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF AN EX-ANTE MODEL OF THE DETERMINATION OF STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY

The assumption that changing expected cash flows and discount factors affect a security's return is at the foundation of many financial models. This study examines empirically the hypothesis that expected stock return variability is a function of cash flow and discount rate uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimation techniques and expectational data are employed. Strong, positive relationships are found, verifying the foundations of the ex-ante models with ex-ante data and providing a better understanding of security markets by explaining, in part, the causes of expected stock price variability.     

Cost stickiness and bank loan contracting

This study examines whether and, if so, how borrowers' asymmetric cost behavior (i.e., cost stickiness) is factored into the price and non-price terms of bank loan contracts. We provide strong and reliable evidence that ex-ante, the loan spread increases with cost stickiness after controlling for other known determinants of loan contract terms. Moreover, we find that the effect is more pronounced for borrowers with higher default risk and higher information risk. This is consistent with borrowers' asymmetric cost behavior increasing lenders' uncertainty about the liquidation value of assets, and hence, lenders need to be compensated ex-ante. Additionally, we conjecture that higher cost stickiness may increase the need for ex-post monitoring. Consistent with this conjecture, we find some evidence that lenders impose tighter non-price terms on firms with stickier costs. This study integrates cost stickiness research with the banking literature by showing that banks incorporate borrowers' asymmetric cost behavior into loan contracting terms.     

A MODEL OF HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS AS A DETERMINANT OF SHORT SALES

This study examines the role of heterogeneous expectations as a determinant of short selling of common stock. A theoretical model demonstrates that the degree of heterogeneity of opinion and the number of investors in a market both positively influence short selling. This theory is substantiated empirically using ex-ante data. Short selling is related directly to merger activity and the presence of options.     

Correlation structure forecasting & ex ante portfolio selection strategies in the Japan market

Using monthly data for 160 stocks covering January 1977 to December 1991, we find that both the Historical Mean and the Industry Mean Models dominate the Global Mean and the Single Index Models. In theex-ante portfolio selection, the Historical Model dominates all other models when evaluated against the benchmark of the Global Minimum Variance Portfolio but a combination of historical correlation structure and Bayes-Stein Shrinkage expected returns dominates other models when the Optimal Tangency Portfolio is used as a benchmark for evaluation.     

International portfolio diversification: a synthesis and an update

This paper provides a synthesis of the existing literature on international portfolio diversification and presents some new results on the subject. We address the question of whether international portfolio diversification is always a reasonable method of reducing the risk of an investment portfolio without negatively affecting its return expectations. Unfortunately, there is still not a simple answer to this question. When ex-post data is examined, potential benefits of international diversification can certainly be detected. However, we also argue that it might be difficult for investors to select an optimal investment strategy ex-ante, when the correlation structure among the international equity is unstable over time. While such findings do not completely rule out the potential benefits of international diversification, they certainly make them more difficult to realize in practice.     

Powerful CEOs,cash bonus contracts and firm performance

We investigate whether powerful chief executive officers (CEOs) influence the conditions of their cash bonus contracts. Specifically, we examine (i) the association between CEO power and the proportion of ex-ante cash bonus to base salary (bonus ratio), (ii) the association between CEO power and the relative use of non-financial to financial performance targets in cash bonus contracts, and (iii) the performance consequences of incorporating non-financial targets in cash bonus contracts. Results show that powerful CEOs are associated with greater ex-ante bonus ratios and higher proportions of non-financial performance targets compared to less powerful CEOs. Furthermore, the use of quantitative and corporate social responsibility (CSR)-related non-financial performance targets is positively associated with subsequent firm performance, and the use of undefined non-financial performance targets is negatively associated with subsequent firm performance. These results are robust to alternative econometric specifications and variable definitions.     

Predictability of stock markets with disequilibrium trading

This paper analyses the predictability of a hypothetical market with freely negotiated prices on which exists a censoring of one-period returns which are in excess of an arbitrary level (‘floor’ and ‘ceiling’). It is shown that the expected value of returns (adjusted for drift) conditional on last period information regarding the censoring are equal to zero (and therefore the market is not predictable in mean) if there is no intertemporal spillover on the market. A simple simulation model is proposed and applied for the analysis of the effects of intertemporal and cross-spillovers resulting from quantity constraints. Statistical predictability tests are proposed, based on the corrected Student-t statistic of a regression of returns of some information concerning the previous censoring. An illustrative empirical analysis of six main time series of returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange confirms their ex-ante, but not ex-post, predictability.     

Aberrant investor participation amid substantial price swings: high-frequency evidence of magnet-repellent effect from Malaysia

Price limits have skirted controversy since inception. Regulators claim limits curb volatility, allay stressed markets, and encourage reflection on information to trade rationally. Opponents contend saying limits delay the inevitable by postponing volatility, deferring equilibrium price discovery, and obtrude investors’ trading plans. While these undesired effects are all ex-post in nature, some argue that limits – by very existence – threaten to invite trading activities towards themselves and govern trade-flow such that the limit’s prophecy is fulfilled. This is known as magnet effect. Theoretical development of this ex-ante effect has been in hibernation since the 1990s. Thus, empirical attempts have been made to test its existence – mostly in East-Asian exchanges with tight limits. Bursa Malaysia, however, defends its ±30% limit for ~30 years based on internal (unpublished) studies. This paper employs a battery of tests to examine the existence and magnitude of magnet effect and – its counterpart – repellent effect in Malaysia. Our findings suggest a weak form of magnet effect and comparable degrees of repellent effect. Moreover, we report price acceleration beyond a threshold point unsupported by order aggression or volume support necessary to constitute a magnet effect. We discuss policy import of our findings and recommend future research avenues worthy of pursuit. Price limits’ opponents argue that limits can threaten to invite trading activities towards themselves such that the limit’s prophecy is fulfilled. Existence of this phenomenon—the magnet effect—has been tested mostly in exchanges with tight limits. This paper employs a battery of tests to examine the existence and magnitude of magnet effect in Bursa Malaysia, which employs a wide price limit. Our findings suggest a weak form of magnet effect and comparable degrees of repellent effect. Moreover, we report price acceleration beyond a threshold point unsupported by order aggression or volume support necessary to constitute magnet effect.     

Prioritising disclosures in the annual report

Drawing upon information economics, this paper presents a relative assessment of 24 of the most common disclosure items in the management commentary and notes sections of the annual report. We design and conduct an Internet survey using a large representative sample of users with an investment focus (n?=?288) and preparers of annual reports (n?=?89). Using cost-effectiveness analysis, an evaluation method widely used in healthcare economics, the balance between preparation costs and user satisfaction, relative to user demand is assessed. Our main findings show that corporate social responsibility and corporate governance, the least demanded disclosure items in the management commentary, are also costly items to prepare. Further, preparers do not consider indirect costs (i.e. competitive position costs and potential litigation costs) of information provided in the management commentary to be a major concern. With regard to the notes, we find that business combinations (IFRS 3), financial instruments (IFRS 7) and impairment tests (IAS 36) are highly demanded but are also among the items most costly to prepare, and users are less satisfied with these notes. The findings have important implications for practitioners and policy-makers and can be used for setting priorities.     

Changing from German GAAP to IFRS or US GAAP: A Survey of German Companies

Since 1993 an increasing number of listed German companies have been publishing their consolidated financial statements in accordance with either IFRS or US GAAP. In 1998 this was approved as a substitute for the consolidated German GAAP financial statements of listed companies (§292a HGB). Our study surveys the motives that led these companies to opt for international reporting systems (IFRS or US GAAP) rather than German GAAP and considers whether these objectives have been achieved. Rather surprisingly, we find that even though companies state that their overall expectations have been met to a satisfactory degree, a detailed analysis shows that several of the ex-ante objectives have not been achieved from an ex-post point of view. Additionally, we use logistic regression analysis to show that companies choosing IFRS rather than US GAAP and vice versa differ distinctly in the objectives they pursue with their choice of international GAAP.     

Environmental,social, and governance practices and perceived tail risk

Using the implied volatility smirk on individual equity securities to measure perceived tail risk, we find that better environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices significantly reduce ex-ante expectations of a left-tail event. Our findings are robust to using multiple model specifications and to adjusting for potential endogeneity concerns. We also show that, while practices in each ESG pillar are important in reducing perceived tail risk, the environmental pillar plays the most important role. Our results indicate that investors consider strong ESG practices to be insurance against left-tail events rather than wasteful investment borne out of managers’ own values or self-interest.     

The Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption: Estimates for 20 OECD Countries*

In social project appraisal, the policy profile of both distributional welfare weights and the social discount rate has risen considerably in recent years. This fact has important implications for the allocation of funds to social projects and policies in countries, and in unions of countries such as the EU. A key component in the formulae for both welfare weights and the social discount rate is the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption, e. A critical review of existing evidence on e suggests that the UK Treasury's preferred value of unity is too low. New evidence presented in this paper, based on the structure of personal income tax rates, suggests that, on average, for developed countries e is close to 1.4. This particular approach to the estimation of e has previously been under‐utilised by researchers.     

Information accuracy and social welfare under homogeneous beliefs

This paper examines the ‘accuracy’ of information and its effect on social welfare. Information is defined to be more accurate than the existing information if individuals are willing to revise their subjective, homogeneous beliefs based on the new information. In a pure exchange economy where individuals may differ in endowments and tastes, it is shown that, for all utility functions satisfying risk aversion and non-satiation, the receipt of more accurate information does not increase social welfare (in terms of ex-ante Pareto-optimality) even when such information production is costless. This represents a more rigorous analysis on several issues that are not clear in the Marshall (1974) paper. Using the HARA class of utility functions, this paper also addresses the relationship between information and borrowing and lending, and the effect of information on the risk-free rate of interest.     

The response of Australian firms to AASB 138 disallowing the recognition of internally generated identifiable intangibles

This paper responds to a call by the Australian Accounting Standards Board to investigate how Australian firms responded to a perceived loss of information pursuant to AASB 138 (IAS38) which mandated the de-recognition of previously recognised internally generated identifiable intangibles, from its effective date of 1 January 2005. We find that the sample firms did not choose to provide alternative or substitute disclosure elsewhere in their annual report or financial statements anytime during our sample period (2005–2010). Prima facie, this is surprising given prior evidence from the value relevance literature that disclosures relevant to the value of internally generated intangibles are correlated with firm value and presumably informative for investors. However, we caution against the drawing of simple conclusions that this finding implies alternative disclosure may not be valuable. Rather, it is important to understand the forces or frictions that contribute to this result. Schipper (The Accounting Review, 82, 2007, 301) and Skinner (Accounting and Business Research, 38, 2008, 191) offer valuable insights into the potential issues such as the costs of alternative disclosure including proprietary costs of disclosing competitive information and, the lower credibility of financial disclosures outside of audited financial statements. These are important considerations in the on-going standard-setting debate on recognition versus disclosure of value relevant information on intangible assets.     

Determinants of biased subjective performance evaluations: evidence from a Taiwanese public sector organization

Drawing on the notion of guanxi, which is obligation-bound, in Confucian cultures, this study investigates whether rating leniency and rating compression in performance evaluation are based on supervisor–subordinate acquaintanceship, alma mater ties, and subordinates' physical proximity to their supervisor. After controlling for supervisor–subordinate gender similarity and age difference, this study first finds that public sector supervisors are willing to provide relatively lenient ratings and compressed ratings for their subordinates when their personal acquaintanceship with them is strong, and when there is close physical proximity between them. Second, an alma mater connection with a subordinate leads to rating leniency by the supervisor. Finally, it is worth noting where this study differs from Bol's research (from Western cultures). In particular, while Bol, J.C. [2011. The determinants and performance effects of managers’ performance evaluation biases. The Accounting Review, 86 (5), 1549–1575] demonstrates that age differences between supervisors and subordinates decrease rating leniency, this study documents insignificant results for similar demographic characteristics in age and gender. Bol, J.C. [2011. The determinants and performance effects of managers’ performance evaluation biases. The Accounting Review, 86 (5), 1549–1575] also demonstrates that if a private sector supervisor sharing a work location with subordinates faces relatively lower information-gathering costs, he or she will give less lenient and less compressed ratings. However, this study shows opposite findings for the guanxi norm in Confucian societies.     

The Changing Face of the Auditor's Report: Implications for Suppliers and Users of Financial Statements

The International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) recently finalised several significant and controversial reforms of the audit reporting model. The reforms are in response to long‐standing criticisms about the form and content of the existing audit report. This study critically examines the current audit report reforms and their implications. In particular, we investigate the perceptions of prominent stakeholders in respect of these reforms and then evaluate the implications of the reforms on the informational value of the audit report, audit quality and audit costs. The findings suggest that the changes to the audit report are of significant informational value to users, while the implications for audit quality are unclear. Indeed, the changes would increase audit costs and potentially the legal liability of auditors. This appraisal is timely given the efforts made by the IAASB in commissioning these reforms to enhance the relevance and informational value of the audit report.     

The Communicative Value of the Auditor's Report

Communicating the results of the audit is a crucial part of the audit process. This potentially enables the users of financial reports to assess the quality of the audit, which will in turn contribute to their assessments of financial reporting quality. This research reports the results of a verbal protocol study of 16 financial analysts to assess how they use an auditor's report as part of a company evaluation. Auditors’ reports perse are found to be important to analysts in that they signal a level of reliability in the financial statements. However, the content of the auditor's report, including the additional content of the recently issued longer form auditor's report (ISA 700, ASA 700), generally was not attended to by the analysts. This suggests the communicative value of the auditor's report is minimal beyond signalling the elevated reliability of the financial statements.     

Managing The Volatility Of Gaap Earnings

Abstract

The adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 97 (SFAS 97) eliminated the “lock-in” concept introduced in SFAS 60. Since many of the actuarial assumptions used in the calculation of the deferred acquisition cost (DAC) asset are difficult to predict over an extended period of time, “dynamic unlocking” was a sensible solution. Although this “dynamic unlocking” keeps the assumptions in line with recent experience, it comes at a cost—increased volatility of GAAP earnings. Some of the causes of this volatility are warranted since it accentuates the effects on earnings due to certain changes in the underlying experience. Other causes of this volatility may be unwarranted because of a misapplication of the principles underlying SFAS 97 and SFAS 120 or the manner in which changes in experience were reflected. In addition, most analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to increase when earnings are better than expected. Conversely, analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to decrease when earnings are worse than expected. Often the amortization of deferred acquisition costs behaves in a manner contrary to their expectations. This article analyzes what causes this volatility, explains why the amortization can behave contrary to expectations, and suggests several techniques for minimizing these unwarranted results.     

Does a Bank’s Loan Screening and Monitoring Matter?

We investigate the relationship between the borrower’s abnormal loan announcement return and the bank’s loan screening and monitoring using a new ex-ante proxy for loan screening and monitoring. While recent studies have suggested that bank loan relationships and related loan screening and monitoring services may no longer matter, we find significant loan announcement returns over the 1995–1999 period and, controlling for borrower and loan characteristics, a statistically significant positive relationship between the proxy and the borrower’s standardized CAR. While consistent with a bank’s loan screening and monitoring adding value to the borrower, the economic effect is relatively small.