基于系统动力学的石油价格分析

在世界政治经济格局经历新变动的国际形势下,石油价格变动影响着世界经济的发展,成为人们倍受关注的焦点。本文从系统动力学的角度,简要的分析了影响石油价格的因素,并通过建模仿真得出石油价格与各影响因素之间的关系。     

马尔柯夫法在石油价格预测中的应用

21世纪世界对能源的争夺将越来越激烈。各国为保障本国的经济稳定持续发展,都不遗余力地加入到对能源,特别是石油的争夺中来。本文通过对近四年世界石油价格的分析,利用马尔柯夫预测法,对未来油价的高低可能性进行预测,对马尔柯夫预测法的适用性进行总结。     

房价变动规律性及调控对策研究

房价的变动既是经济问题,更是政治和社会问题的体现.我国房地产业已经成为拉动国民经济发展的重要支柱产业.金融危机爆发后,房价的大幅波动引起了世界各主要国家的高度关注.本丈结合我国房地产业发展的实际,对房价的变动情况、变动规律性及调控对策问题进行了初步探讨.本文提出影响房价变动的十大要素,对各要素与房价这一变量变动的相关性进行了分析研究,以实现前瞻性的指导房地产业健康发展的目的.     

Price volatility and the political economy of resource-rich nations

This paper attempts to understand how price volatility affects the political transition of a resource-rich nation. Two states reflect price volatility: ‘high prices’ and ‘low prices’. We argue that whether or not political transition (i.e., a switch from one regime to another) will take place in a particular state depends critically on the kind of goods a country produces. If the main economic activity in a country is the extraction of “point-source” resources such as oil that demands capital-intensive production, the opportunity cost of switching the existing regime does not alter if the price of the resource changes but the benefit becomes more lucrative. Therefore, the incumbent group is most vulnerable during ‘high prices’. If the main economic activity of the nations is the production of “diffused resources” such as coffee that requires labor, prices do affect the opportunity cost. Nations concentrating in these commodities face acute political crisis during downturns.     

从专利信息分析探讨广西生物质能源行业发展策略

人类工业特别是汽车工业的迅猛发展，导致石油、天然气、煤炭等不可再生能源被过度开发使用，世界面临严重的能源危机，因此，寻找新型、可替代能源，成为未来能源战略的关键。随着油价攀升和资源紧缺，作为生物能源发展重点的生物燃料乙醇正越来越成为缓解能源困局的重要手段。广西盛产生物质能源原材料的甘蔗、木薯等农作物，为生物质能源行业的发展提供了得天独厚的条件。文章通过对相关生物质能源中国专利文献进行分析，探讨广西生物质能源行业发展的方向与对策。     

民营快递企业提价动因及可持续发展研究

快递业的涨价风潮一次又一次地引起了消费者的热议,特别是对快递业有重要贡献的电子商务造成了一定的冲击。本文从人力成本上涨、油价上涨、自动化和信息化需要等因素分析了快递提价的共同原因,并从实现差异化服务、向自营模式转型及提高自动化和信息化三个方面思考了提价之后如何进行可持续发展。     

基于动态规划的原油进口采购价格研究

随着我国经济的快速发展,国内生产的石油已不能满足经济发展的需要,进口原油量逐年增加,国际油价也一路高升,且我国原油进口方式不合理,存在一定的"买涨不买跌"现象。本文利用动态规划模型,根据实时价格数据确定采购价格,通过对采购价格选择的优化,节约进口采购成本。实证研究结果表明,本文方法具有一定优越性。     

关于海上油气开发工程项目费用控制的研究

质量控制、进度控制、费用控制是海上油气开发工程项目建设的三大目标。而费用控制的成败关系到总承包项目是否能给企业带来盈利,是否能使项目的投资额控制在总投资目标内,文章结合海上油气工程建设实践特点,介绍适合业主方在工程项目中采用的费用控制方法和过程,以求在工程建设中能合理使用人力、物力、财力,取得较好的投资效益。     

The Laws of Economic Rent and Property:

A bstract Economic rent in general, and oil rent in particular, is an historically-specific, social category, reflective of unique property relations , which goes beyond the conventional notion of physical scarcity prevailing in economics literature Neither the Ricardian theory nor the neoclassical general equilibrium theory suitably explain the nature of the capital-land relation and convey an understanding of the priority of their mutual interaction within the production process Being an effect of specific property relation, the phenomenon of rent merely assumes the status of a special category applicable to the concrete conditions of some industries Hence, political economy lacks a general theory of rent
The concept of oil rent is based on the potentially conflicting interaction of ownership of oil reserves , and that of the oil leases , within the global oil industry The oil rent is the result of the transformation of the existing differential productivities of oil-producing regions within the global oil industry The formation of global oil prices and differential oil rents rest on the global competition which has become a distinguishing feature of this industry since the early 1970s     

The Rising Costs of Fossil-Fuel Extraction: An Energy Crisis That Will Not Go Away

In biophysical terms, such as energy return on investment (EROI), energy sources for the global economy have grown more expensive over the last few decades. This trend is likely to be more pronounced in the near-term future as conventional oil and gas are depleted and difficult-to-extract unconventional oil and gas become a larger part of the fossil-fuel supply. On the one hand, this will lead to “energy sprawl”—the growth of the energy sector, as this sector consumes a much larger portion of the energy it extracts—leaving less energy surplus for other sectors. On the other hand, we will see an unsustainable imbalance between the fuel prices that fossil-fuel companies will need to meet their costs and the fuel prices that the larger economy can afford to pay. This article reviews the historical role of inexpensive energy in economic growth, discusses the declining availability of conventional oil resources, and examines the increasing reliance on expensive, unconventional petroleum resources such as shale oil in the United States.     

从专利信息分析探讨广西生物质能源行业发展策略

人类工业特别是汽车工业的迅猛发展,导致石油、天然气、煤炭等不可再生能源被过度开发使用,界面临严重的能源危机,因此,寻找新型、可替代能源,成为未来能源战略的关键。随着油价攀升和资源紧缺作为生物能源发展重点的生物燃料乙醇正越来越成为缓解能源困局的重要手段。广西盛产生物质能源原材料甘蔗、木薯等农作物,为生物质能源行业的发展提供了得天独厚的条件。文章通过对相关生物质能源中国专文献进行分析,探讨广西生物质能源行业发展的方向与对策。     

Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey

In this article, we survey the theory and evidence linking fluctuations in energy prices to those in aggregate economic activity. We then examine the implications of this research for both monetary policy and energy policy in response to oil price shocks. The currently available research seems to provide relatively reliable guidance for monetary policy. Because the precise channels through which oil price shocks affect economic activity are only partially known, however, research offers less guidance about how countries should design energy policy should cope with oil price shocks.     

Changing Trends in Regional Economic Development Policy Governance: The Case of Northern Ontario,Canada

This article analyses the changing trends in regional economic development policy delivery in multilevel governance systems. Although the imperatives of coordination of public policy interventions across multiple levels has generally been recognized, not enough attention has been given to how different political systems actually adapt their institutional and policy designs to effectively operate in the emergent complexity of multilevel governance systems. The article focuses on regional economic development policy governance in the province of Ontario, Canada over the past three decades, drawing insights from new regionalism, organization theory and governance literature to examine the prospects and challenges of policy delivery in politically complex multilevel systems. The case study illustrates how regional economic development policy is increasingly dictated by complex environmental and institutional forces of multilevel governance that are shaped by the particular character of a political system.     

国际工业高空绳索技术在海洋石油行业的应用

本文重点介绍国际工业高空绳索技术,从国际工业高空绳索的发展,安全原理到其在海洋石油工业领域的广泛应用,并着重对比了高空绳索技术和常规脚手架作业的安全记录,分析了国际工业高空绳索技术在海洋石油行业的安全性和经济性等方面的优缺点,从而可以在不同条件下选择一种更加合适的高空作业方法。     

油气田企业税收政策研究

随着石油工业的发展和勘探开发条件的变化,石油税收政策成为影响石油工业乃至整个国民经济发展的重要因素。如何通过制定合理的税收政策,鼓励和促进我国陆上石油资源的勘探与开发,增加油气资源供给,对于我国石油的安全供应和经济的稳定发展具有举足轻重的意义。本文针对我国陆上石油资源的特点,在总结我国石油税制历史沿革的基础上,通过分析我国油气田企业税制中存在的主要问题,提出我国税制改革的相关建议。     

浅述影子价格涵义及其在水运建设项目中的作用

项目评价的一项重要内容就是经济评价,经济评价和财务评价之间有着明显的差别,其中最重要的一个区别就是两者使用的价格不同,财务评价使用的是市场价格,而经济评价采用的则是影子价格。影子价格是指在项目经济评价中采用的部分货物经调整计算的价格,它是投资项目经济评价的通用参数,能够反映社会对这些货物真实价值的度量。本文论述了影子价格的概念和类型,提出了影子价格的理论以及确定方法,介绍影子价格应用于水运建设项目中的作用。     

AFRICAN TRANSITIONS AND THE RESOURCE CURSE: AN ALTERNATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Despite periodic rises in commodity prices, resource-rich African countries have been characterised by state failure and low long-term economic growth. Competing explanations for the resource curse are examined with a particular focus on political institutions. The effective privatisation of states is considered within an alternative theoretical framework of non-democratic governance and non-market economics. Given the nature of many African governments, international initiatives to encourage the development of effective markets and democracy may be inadequate to prevent increased resource rents from consolidating existing elites and their patronage regimes.     

OPEC and political considerations when deciding on oil extraction

Two oil price shocks changed the pattern of cheap oil. The first was the Arab embargo on oil exports in 1973. Oil prices rose five fold. In 1978, the second was the fall of Shah Iran. Prices soared to $80–$100 a barrel in today’s prices. In 1960, OPEC was established and since then it has been a considerable political and economic force in the oil market. Two thirds of the world’s oil reserves belong to OPEC members. OPEC is accused of being responsible for most of the price increases due to their production cuts and market power. This paper provides a general framework to examine the role of OPEC in affecting oil prices through the extracted quantities. A mathematical model is developed to explore the objective function of OPEC, which includes economic and political considerations. The idea is that OPEC members consider both the political support of their citizens and profits when determining oil extraction rates. This support is represented by a “harm function” which was added to the objective function of OPEC. The solution of the model lends some support for inclusion of this harm function, through which OPEC benefits from the cuts in production aimed at harming the western countries. For this harm function to be meaningful empirically, OPEC members should have a high harm indicator, α_t. With high harm indicator values, OPEC harms itself financially. The results suggest that OPEC appears to be accepting considerable monetary setbacks to appease its citizens’ taste for harming the West. At different discount rates, the monetary losses range from about 10–20%. Solving the mathematical model required estimation of the residual demand that OPEC faces plus the cost function that applies to OPEC production. This paper reports the results of these estimations.     

The influence of international oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of countries along the “Belt and Road”

In recent years, the international crude oil price has become increasingly volatile. It influences the exchange rate changes of relevant countries through economic growth, price level, international balance of payments, and other channels. Such exchange rate fluctuations have caused certain risks for the development of China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. This article analyzes the impact of oil price changes on the exchange rates of countries. Because the fluctuation of oil prices and exchange rates has shown the characteristics of multiple time scales, this study used the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the long-cycle and short-cycle sequences of oil prices and the exchange rates of various countries, then analyzed the impact of oil price changes on exchange rates under different time scales. The results showed that oil price fluctuations have an impact on the exchange rate changes of countries along the “Belt and Road” under different time scales. However, this effect is asymmetric between oil-producing countries and non-oil-producing countries, and the transmission path of oil prices to exchange rates varies from cycle to cycle.     

再议海洋油气资源的开发利用

二十一世纪是海洋全面开发的新世纪,越来越多的国家都把合理有序地开发利用海洋资源,保护海洋环境作为求生存、求发展的基本国策。我国海洋油气储量丰富,增长潜力巨大,大力开发海洋油气资源有利于缓解国内能源短缺状况,满足社会和经济发展需要。本文针对我国现有海洋油气资源开发利用现状,对如何加快开发利用海洋油气资源提出措施和建议,以便为制定海洋油气资源发展规划、研究国家能源战略和海洋经济的最优发展模式等提供参考。