Carbon sequestration and the optimal management of New Hampshire timber stands

This paper explores the tradeoff between resource extraction and net carbon sequestration in managing representative timber stands in the state of New Hampshire in the northeastern United States. In the absence of policies to promote forest carbon storage, land owners have incentives to employ clear-cut harvesting regimes with relatively short rotation periods. Under conservative assumptions regarding the social benefits of carbon storage, optimal rotation periods are extended by between 16 and 133 years depending on the forest type under consideration. If policy-makers pursued a cost-effective strategy to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at twice the pre-industrial norm, optimal rotation periods would be extended by a full 180–347 years. The analysis suggests that partial harvesting regimes (in which approximately 35% of timber volume is removed at 15-year intervals after the timber stand reaches an initial age of 45 years) provide relatively high net benefits under a variety of circumstances. This finding is relevant because partial harvesting is an accepted and relatively common practice that could be adopted more widely.     

Forest management for timber and carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change: The case of Pinus Sylvestris

Climatic changes will affect the dynamics of a forest ecosystem. Consequently, carbon sequestration costs can only be estimated correctly if changes in climatic conditions are considered. This article determines the changes in mitigation costs of an optimal forest management regime in the presence of climatic changes and varying prices, and takes account of substitution processes between timber production and carbon sequestration at the stand level. The study demonstrates that in the presence of climate change the sequestration costs per ton of carbon increase with higher amounts of carbon sequestered per hectare. This finding can be used to identify a threshold for the amount of sequestered carbon per hectare below which the costs of carbon sequestration are hardly influenced by climate change.     

Carbon Subsidies,Taxes and Optimal Forest Management

We consider the effect of carbon credit payment schemes on forest owners’ land use and harvest decisions. We study two possible credit allocation regimes: one where credits are allocated according to the actual amount of carbon sequestered by the trees on a piece of land and another where credits are allocated according to the long-run potential to sequester carbon on the land. Using a real options model with uncertain future timber prices, we examine the effect on the timing of harvests and the replanting-abandonment decision. We show that both schemes discourage deforestation. Compensating growers for actual carbon sequestration leads to longer rotation periods between harvests, while basing compensation only on the long-run potential level of sequestration induces shorter rotation periods. The former scheme leads to greater benefits of carbon sequestration at lower cost than the latter scheme. Although inducing moderate levels of sequestration is expensive under both schemes, the cost falls dramatically when the level of payments climbs above some threshold. Indeed, providing the payments are sufficiently generous, carbon credit payment schemes offer an effective means of increasing carbon sequestration. The views expressed in this paper are strictly those of the authors and do not represent the views of the New Zealand Commerce Commission. We thank Lewis Evans and two anonymous referees for many very helpful comments. Kevin Counsell, Steen Videbeck, and participants at an ISCR seminar also provided useful suggestions. Fletcher Forests Ltd and the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry generously provided data.     

论化解农村金融排斥的创新模式 ——林业碳汇交易引导资金回流农村的实证分析

目前,农村金融排斥已十分严重,极大地影响着农村经济发展,主要原因是政府出台的化解政策无法解决金融机构开展农村金融服务与实现利润最大化目标的矛盾。本文认为,发展林业碳汇交易是化解农村金融排斥的创新模式,能够引导资金回流农村,促进金融机构在支持林业碳汇交易的同时实现自身商业化可持续发展,并以广西珠江流域再造林林业碳汇项目为案例,对其化解农村金融排斥的成效进行了实证检验。开展林业碳汇交易顺应绿色环保潮流,具有持续化解农村金融排斥的作用。政府应大力促进林业碳汇交易发展。     

Co-optimization of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration

In this paper, we present an economic analysis of CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (EOR). This technique entails injection of CO₂ into mature oil fields in a manner that reduces the oil's viscosity, thereby enhancing the rate of extraction. As part of this process, significant quantities of CO₂ remain sequestered in the reservoir. If CO₂ emissions are regulated, oil producers using EOR should therefore be able to earn revenues from sequestration as well as from oil production. We develop a theoretical framework that analyzes the dynamic co-optimization of oil extraction and CO₂ sequestration, through the producer's choice of the fraction of CO₂ in the injection stream at each moment. We find that the optimal fraction of CO₂ is likely to decline monotonically over time, and reach zero before the optimal termination time. Numerical simulations, based on an ongoing EOR project in Wyoming, confirm this result. We also find that cumulative sequestration is less responsive to the carbon tax than to the oil price. Only at very high taxes does a tradeoff between revenues from oil output and sequestration arise.     

Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value

We develop a multiple forest use model to determine the optimal harvest date for a forest stand producing both timber and carbon benefits under a risk of fire. An empirical application is provided for a forest owner producing maritime pine in Southwest of France. Our results indicate that a higher risk of fire will decrease the optimal rotation period. On the contrary, higher carbon prices increase the optimal harvesting age. To investigate the contradictory effects of fire risk and carbon price on forest rotation, we identify the set of carbon prices and fire risks that lead to a given rotation age. We also show that forest owner's willingness to pay for a risk reduction can be substantial (37.33 euros by ha and by year to reduce the annual fire risk from 1.26% to 0.07%).     

Permanence discounting for land-based carbon sequestration

One major concern regarding land-based carbon sequestration involves the issue of permanence. Sequestration may not last forever and may either be released in the future or require expenditures to maintain the practices that keep it sequestered. In this paper, we investigate the differential value of offsets in the face of impermanent characteristics by forming a price discount that equalizes the effective price per ton between a “perfect offset” and one possessing some with impermanent characteristics. We find this discount to be a function of the future needs to replace offsets (in the face of lease expiration quantity or volatilization upon activities such as timber harvest) and the magnitude of any needed maintenance costs. We investigate the magnitude of the discounts under alternative agricultural tillage and forest management cases. In those studies, we find that permanence discounts in the range of 50% are not uncommon. This means that in the market place an impermanent sequestration offset may only receive payments amounting to 50% of the market carbon price. Furthermore, we find that in the face of escalating carbon prices that offsets may prove to be worthless.     

Radiative forcing and the optimal rotation age

Forests help mitigate climate change by sequestering atmospheric carbon. However, boreal and high-latitude temperate forests may also contribute to global warming due to the albedo effect. The relative effects of carbon sequestration and albedo can be quantified in terms of radiative forcing. We present a stylized, stand-level analysis to determine the optimal rotation age when considering a tax/subsidy scheme based on radiative forcing and the notion of equivalent carbon emissions. Additional management decision variables considered include species choice and regeneration effort, since these can impact the albedo effect. We demonstrate analytically that the optimal rotation length is likely shortened when albedo-related equivalent emissions are incorporated, relative to a policy based only on carbon. Empirical results indicate that rotation ages do decrease relative to a “carbon only” policy, and approach the traditional (timber only) Faustmann rotation age as equivalent emission rates increase. Our results suggest that forestation does not necessarily provide climatic benefits in all circumstances, and that, at the margin, other opportunities for carbon reduction (e.g. abatement), or pursuing forestation in other locations, become more attractive.     

Wood Fuel or Carbon Sink? Aspects of Forestry in the Climate Question

This paper discusses and contrasts two mainroles of forestry in light of the debate on theglobal climate. As the main problem is relatedto the increases of the CO₂-concentrationin the atmosphere, forests may be viewed aspart of the alleviation of the problem throughtheir function as (i) a source of biomass forenergy production, which may replace fossilfuels and thus indirectly reduceCO₂-emissions, and as (ii) carbon storage,since a growing forest extracts atmosphericCO₂ and fixes it as carbon in biomass. Inthe Scandinavian forestry, logging residues areincreasingly being used for energy production.In this paper the value of forests as a sourceof bioenergy is added to the traditional timbervalue. Formulated as a joint production modelwithin the Faustmann framework, the effect ofthis addition on the optimal rotation length isdiscussed. Based on data for spruce, thedominant species in the Scandinavian forestry,it is demonstrated that the rotation length isshortened compared to the standard Faustmannmodel. Shorter rotation length implies lesscarbon storage. Therefore, in this modelwithout explicit regard to the social carbonstorage value of the forest, the gains in termsof the climate problem from utilisation offorest biomass for energy production are beingdiminished by the value of reduced carbonstorage. The carbon value of the forest is thenadded to complete the model, with the effect ofincreasing the rotation length, a result thatis well known in the literature. Finally, theempirical effects of the interaction of thesetwo climate-related value elements of theforest are discussed.     

森林碳汇制度对云南桥头堡建设的提升作用

从发展森林碳汇是应对气候变暖的重要措施以及市场化是森林碳汇发展的必然趋势的视角出发,分析森林碳汇制度与云南桥头堡建设的关系,提出森林碳汇制度的建立将对云南省桥头堡建设起到巨大的推动和提升作用。     

Barriers to Massachusetts forest landowner participation in carbon markets

U.S. forests, including family-owned forests, are important carbon sinks and sources for carbon sequestration. Family forest owners constitute a significant portion of the overall forestland in the U.S., but little is known about their preferences for participating in carbon sequestration programs. The goal of this research is to understand what motivates Massachusetts family forest owners to participate in carbon markets. The study estimates the probability these landowners would engage in carbon sequestration programs using data from a survey of 930 Massachusetts family forest owners. Results from a random effects ordered probit indicate that under a carbon scenario similar to the current voluntary scheme, very few of these landowners would be interested in participating. Supply analysis indicates these landowners are more influenced to participate by factors other than price. Regression analysis results suggest that survey respondents are concerned about early withdrawal penalties, additionality requirements, and contract length. Forest owner harvesting plans, opinions about forest usage, and beliefs about climate change all play a significant role in the decision to participate. The study suggests that policy makers should consider the reasons behind these low participation rates, because private forest owners could play a pivotal role in the carbon sequestration potential of forests.     

森林碳汇项目态势分析——以黑龙江省森工国有林区为例

运用态势分析法剖析黑龙江省森工国有林区开展森林碳汇项目的内部优势、劣势,所面对的外部机遇与威胁,结合黑龙江省省情和森工国有林区林情,提出了黑龙江省森工国有林区开展碳汇项目的应对策略,包括加强森林碳汇的研究及管理工作;优化树种结构;强化林地管理;切实做好森林防火工作。     

Forest carbon sequestration and China’s potential: the rise of a nature-based solution for climate change mitigation

ABSTRACT

A growing interest has recently been placed on the potential of nature-based solutions to help mitigate climate change, reflecting the importance of natural ecosystems as sources and sinks for greenhouse gases. Forests are of the hot debate – that sequester and also emit carbon dioxide (CO₂). In this paper, we estimate the forest carbon sequestration potential for China. We show that, as the government plans, by 2020, the size of China’s forest carbon stock will reach 12.87 billion tons, among which 5.73 billion tons will be from afforestation and reforestation (A/R). From the up-to-date data on AR activities (by 2018), we find that only 80% of the target sinks have been met. Scenario analysis shows that the carbon sequestered by the forests in 2020 is equivalent to 13%-17% of the industrial CO₂ emission that year, with 6%-8% by A/R, 4%-6% by forest-management, 3%-4% by reduced-deforestation-and-forest-degradation, and 1% by wood-product-sink.     

Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors

A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.     

Why do ICDPs fail?: The relationship between agriculture,hunting and ecotourism in wildlife conservation

We analyze why integrated conservation and development projects (ICDPs) fail to achieve their conservation goals. We develop a bio-economic model of open access habitat and wildlife exploitation, which is consistent with farming and hunting societies living in close proximity to forest reserves in developing countries. We show that the ICDP creates incentives to conserve habitat and wildlife, but socially optimal levels of conservation cannot be achieved, because of externalities among the local communities. We show how a social planner can achieve the socially optimal levels of habitat and wildlife by a more encompassing tax/subsidy regime.     

Turning Water into Carbon: Carbon Sequestration and Water Flow in the Murray–Darling Basin

Large scale forest plantations in the Murray–Darling Basin are a possible carbon sequestration mechanism which may be adopted in response to the introduction of a carbon price. However, increased tree plantation will be associated with reduced inflows to river systems because of increased transpiration, interception and evaporation. This could have significant implications for regions vulnerable to drought. This study examines the interaction between carbon pricing, water pricing, and agricultural land use in the Murray–Darling Basin and its impact on water flow under current and climate change settings.     

The new economy of nature：can carbon pay for nature conservation？ The case of the Hong Kong Country Parks

The Country Parks of Hong Kong occupy 40%of the total landmass of Hong Kong,and consists of vast areas of secondary woodlands,scrublands,grasslands,and reservoirs.That vegetation-and the soil underneathsubtract carbon from the atmosphere,which has a market value.The aim of this paper is to estimate the value of that carbon,to assess whether that value would be sufficient to pay for the upkeep of the Country Parks,and to compare that value to the costs of alternative ways to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide.To do this,we compare the land cover of 1978,1991,1997 and 2004 using remote sensing,and identify the three predominant land covers（woodlands,scrublands,grasslands） .We then estimate the amount and value of the carbon sequestered by the vegetation and soil of the Country Parks,and compare it to the budget available to the Agriculture,Fisheries and Conservation Department to run the Country Parks（HK$234 million in 2009/2010） .We extrapolate our results over 50 years,from 1978 to 2028.We conclude that by 2028 the carbon sequestered would be valued over HK$800 million,but the value of the additional carbon subtracted yearly would only cover approximately 7%of the total budget needed to run the Country Parks.We also conclude that because of the large budget allocated to the Country Parks,alternative methods of carbon sequestration-represented by the EU ETS price of carbon-are much cheaper.     

碳中和背景下城市碳汇功能及提升 策略——以沈阳核心区为例

城市是碳排放产生的主要地域空间，是进行“碳中 和”核算与政策制定的主体。除了减少固定能源与交通碳排放 外，增加城市碳汇也是实现“碳中和”的重要手段。通过分析 沈阳三环区域城市碳汇(植被、土壤、水系、建筑物)不同组 成部分的碳汇能力，估算出城市碳汇固碳量为430.93万t， 能够抵消沈阳市年能源消耗产生CO2的7.34%。在明晰城市 碳汇固碳机理、固碳潜力及其空间分布特征的基础上，提出增 加固碳面积与提升碳密度两方面的城市碳汇功能提升策略，旨 在为中国低碳规划与碳中和实现提供理论指导与技术支撑。     

全国森林碳汇监测和计量体系的初步研究

森林碳汇是全球气候变化和陆地生态系统碳循环中的重要组成部分,森林碳汇的变化直接影响着大气层中主要温室气体的浓度,进而影响气候变化和陆地生态平衡.该文从应用角度出发,通过分析自然环境和森林区划等区域特征,进行监测区和样地布设,进行了森林碳库分类.明确了森林碳汇监测区样地调查内容和森林碳汇计量方法,并构建了网络信息化平台,建立监测信息系统,实现数据网络化管理,同时结合地理信息系统进行综合应用,为我国应对全球气候变化制定相关政策提供基础数据和决策支持.     

Carbon Sequestration with Reforestations and Biodiversity-scenic Values

This paper presents an optimal control model to analyze reforestations with two different species, including commercial values, carbon sequestration and biodiversity or scenic values. We discuss the implications of partial or total internalization of environmental values, showing that internalizing only carbon sequestration may have negative impacts on biodiversity-scenic values. To evaluate the practical relevance, we compare reforestations in the South-west of Spain with cork-oaks (a slow-growing native species) and with eucalyptus (a fast-growing alien species). We do the analysis with two different carbon crediting methods: the Carbon Flow Method and the Ton Year Accounting Method. With the first method, the forest surface increases more, but using mainly eucalyptus. With the second, additional reforestations are done mainly using cork-oaks. We value the impact on visitors of these reforestations using stated preferences methods showing that, when these values are internalized, cork-oaks are favored.