Designs for smoothing spline ANOVA models

Smoothing spline estimation of a function of several variables based on an analysis of variance decomposition (SS-ANOVA) is one modern nonparametric technique. This paper considers the design problem for specific types of SS-ANOVA models. As criteria for choosing the design points, the integrated mean squared error (IMSE) for the SS-ANOVA estimate and its asymptotic approximation are derived based on the correspondence between the SS-ANOVA model and the random effects model with a partially improper prior. Three examples for additive and interaction spline models are provided for illustration. A comparison of the asymptotic designs, the 2^d factorial designs, and the glp designs is given by numerical computation. Received May 2000     

U-statistics for sequential change detection

Large sample approximations for sequential U-statistics using anti-symmetric kernels are considered both under no-change and change hypotheses. These new approximations make it easy to perform sequential tests. Received: November 1999     

Optimality and efficiency of incomplete split-block designs

In this paper, a balanced incomplete split-block design (BISBD) is shown to be universally optimum for the estimation of the interaction effects with respect to each of the intra-plot stratum estimation and the GLSE. Furthermore, the efficiency factor of an optimal design is investigated.     

On a property of orthogonal arrays and optimal blocking of fractional factorial plans

It is shown that fractional factorial plans represented by orthogonal arrays of strength three are universally optimal under a model that includes the mean, all main effects and all two-factor interactions between a specified factor and each of the other factors. Thus, such plans exhibit a kind of model robustness in being universally optimal under two different models. Procedures for obtaining universally optimal block designs for fractional factorial plans represented by orthogonal arrays are also discussed. Acknowledgements. The authors wish to thank the referees for making several useful comments on a previous version.     

On the choice of support of Re-descendingψ-Functions in linear models with asymmetric error distributions

InM-estimation of the regression parameter vector in the linear model, we discuss the choice of the support of certain re-descendingψ-functions for both cases when the distribution of the i.i.d. errors is partially known and when it is completely functionally unknown. Research supported in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.     

On multivariate higher order von Mises expansions

In this paper we review the von Mises calculations of higher order for statistical functionals of one variable. For the functionals of several variables, the higher order Gateaux differentials are defined leading to the corresponding multivariate higher order von Mises expansions. These expansions are used to analyze the bias of the corresponding statistical functionals. The second and third order derivatives are computed for M-estimates. Applications of these expansions to study the bias of M-estimates of location and to simultaneous M-estimates of location and scale are also given. Received: July 2000     

On universal admissibility of scale parameter estimators

A characterization result of Kushary (1998) regarding universal admissibility of equivariant estimators in the one parameter gamma distribution is generalized to a scale family of distributions with monotone likelihood ratio. New examples are given, among them the F-distribution with a scale parameter. In particular, universal admissibility is characterized within the class of location-scale equivariant estimators of the ratio of the variances of two normal distributions with unknown means. In this context the maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be universally inadmissible by virtue of a general sufficient condition for universal inadmissibility of a scale equivariant estimator. Received: January 2000     

D-optimal weighing designs for six objects

For all integers m≥6, we determine the maximum value of det X ^T X, where X is an m×6 (0, 1)-matrix, and exhibit (D-optimal) matrices X for which the maximum occurs. For D-optimal matrices X, the uniqueness of the Gram matrix X ^T X is discussed. Received: May 2000     

Two-level search design for main-effect plus two plan

One important class of screening designs is the search design first proposed by Srivastava (1975). A new class of two-level factorial search designs which are capable of estimating all main-effect plus two interactions is provided. We first give a necessary and sufficient condition for the main-effect plus two plan and then show that the proposed search design always satisfies such a condition. Received October 2000     

Analysis of a change-point regression problem in quality control by partial sums processes and Kolmogorov type tests

In practice, it is an important problem (especially in quality control) to secure that a known regression function occurs during a certain period in time. In the present paper, we consider the change-point problem that under the null hypothesis this known regression function occurs. As alternative, we consider a certain non-parametric class of functions that is of particular interest in quality control. We analyze this test problem by using partial sums of the data. Asymptotically, we get Brownian motion and Brownian motion with trend (≠0) under the hypothesis and under the alternative, respectively. We prove that tests based on partial sums have a larger power when the partial sums are taken from the time reversed data. This can be quantitatively determined in an asymptotic way by some new results on Kolmogorov type tests for Brownian motion with trend. We illustrate our results by a certain model that is interesting in quality control and by an example with real data.Supported in part by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Grant Bi655.Supported in part by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Grant Bi655 and by the Swiss National Science Foundation Grant 20-55586.98.     

Bartlett correction to the likelihood ratio test for MCAR with two‐step monotone sample

Assuming that two‐step monotone missing data is drawn from a multivariate normal population, this paper derives the Bartlett‐type correction to the likelihood ratio test for missing completely at random (MCAR), which plays an important role in the statistical analysis of incomplete datasets. The advantages of our approach are confirmed in Monte Carlo simulations. Our correction drastically improved the accuracy of the type I error in Little's (1988, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83 , 1198–1202) test for MCAR and performed well even on moderate sample sizes.     

Distributions of exact tests in the exponential family

The aim of this paper is to give some results on the exact density of the I-divergence in the exponential family with gamma distributed observations. It is shown in particular that the I-divergence can be decomposed as a sum of two independent variables with known distributions. Since the considered I-divergence is related to the likelihood ratio statistics, we apply the method to compute the exact distribution of the likelihood ratio tests and discuss the optimality of such exact tests. One of these tests is the exact LR test of the model which is asymptotically optimal in the Bahadur sense. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the methods discussed. Received: January 2002 Acknowledgements. I am grateful to Prof. Andrej Pázman for helpful discussions during the setup and the preparation of the paper and to the referees for constructive comments on earlier versions of the paper. Research is supported by the VEGA grant (Slovak Grant Agency) No 1/7295/20     

Characterizations of the Pareto and related distributions

In this note, a class of Pareto distributions is characterized based on the Shannon entropy of k-record statistics. As a consequence of that characterizations of the uniform and exponential distributions are given. Received: October 1999     

Three‐period,two‐treatment crossover design under long‐term carryover effect

The paper describes non‐parametric approach for analysis of a three‐period, two‐treatment, four‐sequence crossover design in which test procedure for interchangeability of the treatment effects is obtained. The proposed procedure is based on a non‐parametric model, which incorporates, along with the direct treatment effects and the usual carryover effects, the long‐term carryover effects. Relevant competitors are obtained. Related asymptotic results are given. By performing simulation study, we compared the procedures with respect to type I error rate and power. Furthermore, confidence intervals for treatment differences are studied. The procedures are illustrated with a data study.     

Finite sample tail behavior of the multivariate trimmed mean based on Tukey-Donoho halfspace depth

Finite sample tail behavior of the Tukey-Donoho halfspace depth based multivariate trimmed mean is investigated with respect to a tail performance measure. It turns out that the tails of the sampling distribution of the α-depth-trimmed mean approach zero at least ⌊αn⌋ times as fast as the tails of the underlying population distribution and could be n−⌊αn⌋+ 1 times as fast. In addition, there is an intimate relationship among the tail behavior, the halfspace depth, and the finite sample breakdown point of the estimator. It is shown that the lower tail performance bound of the depth based trimmed mean is essentially the same as its halfspace depth and the breakdown point. This finding offers a new insight into the notion of the halfspace depth and extends the important role of the tail behavior as a quantitative assessment of robustness in the regression (He, Jurečková, Koenker and Portnoy (1990)) and the univariate location settings (Jurečková (1981)) to the multivariate location setting. Received: 1 July 1999     

Blockwise bootstrap wavelet in nonparametric regression model with weakly dependent processes

In this paper, we suggest a blockwise bootstrap wavelet to estimate the regression function in the nonparametric regression models with weakly dependent processes for both designs of fixed and random. We obtain the asymptotic orders of the biases and variances of the estimators and establish the asymptotic normality for a modified version of the estimators. We also introduce a principle to select the length of data block. These results show that the blockwise bootstrap wavelet is valid for general weakly dependent processes such as α-mixing, φ-mixing and ρ-mixing random variables.     

Application of one‐step method to parameter estimation in ODE models

In this paper, we study application of Le Cam's one‐step method to parameter estimation in ordinary differential equation models. This computationally simple technique can serve as an alternative to numerical evaluation of the popular non‐linear least squares estimator, which typically requires the use of a multistep iterative algorithm and repetitive numerical integration of the ordinary differential equation system. The one‐step method starts from a preliminary ‐consistent estimator of the parameter of interest and next turns it into an asymptotic (as the sample size n →∞ ) equivalent of the least squares estimator through a numerically straightforward procedure. We demonstrate performance of the one‐step estimator via extensive simulations and real data examples. The method enables the researcher to obtain both point and interval estimates. The preliminary ‐consistent estimator that we use depends on non‐parametric smoothing, and we provide a data‐driven methodology for choosing its tuning parameter and support it by theory. An easy implementation scheme of the one‐step method for practical use is pointed out.     

The number of banking relationships and the business cycle: New evidence from Colombia

We study the determinants of multiple bank–firm relationships using a uniquely rich data set comprised of information on individual loans of a large number of firms in Colombia. We control for firm-specific variables and find that the business cycle exerts important influence on the number of bank relationships sustained by firms. Our evidence suggests that the number of bank relationships is counter-cyclical, decreasing during macroeconomic expansions and increasing during contractions. However, this effect is stronger for large firms which have more access to alternative sources of funding.     

On the properties of the coefficient of determination in regression models with infinite variance variables

We examine the asymptotic properties of the coefficient of determination, R²$R^2$, in models with α-stable$\alpha \text{-stable}$   random variables. If the regressor and error term share the same index of stability α<2$\alpha <2$, we show that the R²$R^2$  statistic does not converge to a constant but has a nondegenerate distribution on the entire [0,1]$[0,1]$ interval. We provide closed-form expressions for the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of this limit random variable, and we show that the density function is unbounded at 0 and 1. If the indices of stability of the regressor and error term are unequal, we show that the coefficient of determination converges in probability to either 0 or 1, depending on which variable has the smaller index of stability, irrespective of the value of the slope coefficient. In an empirical application, we revisit the Fama and MacBeth (1973) two-stage regression and demonstrate that in the infinite-variance case the R²$R^2$  statistic of the second-stage regression converges to 0 in probability even if the slope coefficient is nonzero. We deduce that a small value of the R²$R^2$  statistic should not, in itself, be used to reject the usefulness of a regression model.