Rates of Return on Art Objects, the Fisher Hypothesis, and Inflationary Expectations

After surveying the evolution of the major methodologies in inflation hedging, this study presents a unique methodology that uses principal component factor analysis to separate the effects of variability in the real rate of return from the nominal rate of return. This approach allows the effects of both anticipated and unanticipated inflation on rates of return to be estimated more precisely. This study finds that art objects perform well in terms of average real rates of return and that the market, though not perfect, integrates anticipated inflation into the rates of return. However, unanticipated inflation is very often negatively related to the rates of return.     

Financial Statement Analysis of Leverage and How It Informs About Profitability and Price-to-Book Ratios

This paper presents a financial statement analysis that distinguishes leverage that arises in financing activities from leverage that arises in operations. The analysis yields two leveraging equations, one for borrowing to finance operations and one for borrowing in the course of operations. These leveraging equations describe how the two types of leverage affect book rates of return on equity. An empirical analysis shows that the financial statement analysis explains cross-sectional differences in current and future rates of return as well as price-to-book ratios, which are based on expected rates of return on equity. The paper therefore concludes that balance sheet line items for operating liabilities are priced differently than those dealing with financing liabilities. Accordingly, financial statement analysis that distinguishes the two types of liabilities informs on future profitability and aids in the evaluation of appropriate price-to-book ratios.     

Portfolio analysis of asset and liability management in small-, medium- and large-sized banks

The paper presents an analysis of the commercial banking firm based on Markowitz portfolio analysis. A bank is treated as a portfolio of five banking assets and three banking liabilities. The average rate of return and risk of each asset and liability is estimated empirically for groups of banks categorized by size — small, medium and large. Banks' rates return on equity are defined as the weighted average of the assets' rates of return less the liabilities' rates of return. Quadratic programming is used to delineate the set of banking portfolios which have the maximum rate of return on equity at each level of risk.     

Factors affecting transfer pricing and income shifting (?) between Canadian and U.S. transnational corporations

An analysis of organizational, environmental, and financial factors indicates that income shifting may occur among TNCs in the United States and Canada. Some differences in rates of return are partially explained by the larger U.S. TNCs, which experience higher rates of return and prefer non-market methods. Smaller Canadian TNCs, with lower rates of return, prefer market methods.     

Hedge Fund Risk Dynamics: Implications for Performance Appraisal

Accurate appraisal of hedge fund performance must recognize the freedom with which managers shift asset classes, strategies, and leverage in response to changing market conditions and arbitrage opportunities. The standard measure of performance is the abnormal return defined by a hedge fund's exposure to risk factors. If exposures are assumed constant when, in fact, they vary through time, estimated abnormal returns may be incorrect. We employ an optimal changepoint regression that allows risk exposures to shift, and illustrate the impact on performance appraisal using a sample of live and dead funds during the period January 1994 through December 2005.     

Return behavior and pricing of American depositary receipts

This paper provides an empirical analysis of 123 American depositary receipts (ADRs) from 16 countries. The paper finds that the returns on ADRs have significant risk exposures to the returns on the world market portfolio and their respective home market portfolios. Further, ADRs do not have significant risk exposures to changes in their home currency’s exchange rates. In explaining variations in ADR returns, a multi-factor model with the world market return and the home market return as the risk factors performs better than models with just the world market return, the home market return or a set of global factors as the risk factors.     

Economic and Accounting (Book) Rates of Return: Application of a Statistical Model

Harcourt's (1965) classic paper has spawned a considerable literature dealing with the relationship between economic and accounting rates of return. Kay (1976), Ijiri (1979), Salamon (1982) and Kelly and Tippett (1991), for example, can be interpreted as extensions of Harcourt's seminal analysis, while Kay (1976), Salamon (1982, 1985) and Gordon and Hamer (1988) provide empirical evidence on the sustainability of basic propositions. The present paper's focus is on the latter area; we apply the statistical procedures laid down in Kelly and Tippett (1991) to about 200 British companies to assess the correspondence between the ex post accounting rate of return and the prospective economic return. The economic return is estimated using three cash flow definitions. For all three, the accounting rate of return is significantly lower than the economic return. Further tests show the economic return to be inversely related to the accounting rate of return, although the relationship is weak. In addition, ‘large’ firms tend to report lower accounting rates of return than ‘small’ firms, but again the relationship is weak.     

从信贷评审角度看新会计准则对企业财务分析的影响

财政部于2006年初发布的新<企业会计准则>已成为我国会计制度的一项重大改革.新准则的发布与实施对企业会计核算做了一系列新的规定;同时,对企业财务信息的使用者,尤其是对作为债权人的银行如何在新准则下解读企业财务信息提出了新的要求.本文从新<企业会计准则>制定的背景及主要特点出发,站在银行信贷评审的角度,重点阐述了新旧准则/制度的差异,解析了其对企业财务分析产生的主要影响,并对银行信贷审查时使用和理解新<企业会计准则>做了如下建议,包括对不同企业按不同标准进行财务分析、对企业不同时期数据要加以判别、对公允价值运用的合理性加以区别等.     

Using Expectations to Test Asset Pricing Models

Asset pricing models generate predictions relating assets' expected rates of return and their risk attributes. Most tests of these models have employed realized rates of return as a proxy for expected return. We use analysts' expected rates of return to examine the relation between these expectations and firm attributes. By assuming that analysts' expectations are unbiased estimates of market-wide expected rates of return, we can circumvent the use of realized rates of return and provide evidence on the predictions emanating from traditional asset pricing models. We find a positive, robust relation between expected return and market beta and a negative relation between expected return and firm size, consistent with the notion that these are risk factors. We do not find that high book-to-market firms are expected to earn higher returns than low book-to-market firms, inconsistent with the notion that book-to-market is a risk factor.     

Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements

This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected aggregate discount rates and, specifically, that good earnings news is associated with a positive shock to required returns. Consistent with this interpretation we find that Treasury bond rates and implied future inflation expectations respond directly to earnings news. We also find some evidence that the negative relation between earnings news and market return persists beyond the immediate announcement period, suggesting that market participants do not immediately fully impound these future market return implications of aggregate earnings news.     

Estimates of economic rates of return for the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, 1976–1987

Estimation procedures are designed to consider features of publicly-available financial accounting information which allegedly compromise its use to estimate economic internal rates of return. These procedures, which focus on cashflows rather than conventional accounting income measures, are used to investigate the relative profitability of the U.S. pharamaceutical industry. Results indicate that pharmceutical returns exceed returns for comparable U.S. industrial firms during the period encompassed by the study. Differences for these comparisons are substantially less than what is implied by an uniformed use of accounting information, however. In particular, differences in implied internal rates of return of 2.1% to 3.8%, whereas differences in accounting rates of return are 4.0% to 5.6%. Results are robust for a wide variety of assumptions about industry growth rates and investment payout profiles, characteristics which potentially cause accounting-based return measures to differ from underlying internal rates of return.     

Term structure determinants of time-varying risk of 1-year bond returns

Term structure drivers of 1-year bond premia and conditional bond return risk are distinct. Consequently, the Cochrane–Piazzesi factor captures aggregate price of risk and not the amount of risk in 1-year bond returns. One linear combination of forward rates captures most of the variation in bond return risk across maturities. Interest rate level captures substantial amount of variation in the conditional return risk, a finding consistent with rising inflation uncertainty with level of inflation and interest rates. The 4-5 yield spread, an important positive predictor of bond return premia, has an opposing but limited impact on the conditional volatility.     

Survival

Empirical analysis of rates of return in finance implicitly condition on the security surviving into the sample. We investigate the implications of such conditioning on the time series of rates of return. In general this conditioning induces a spurious relationship between observed return and total risk for those securities that survive to be included in the sample. This result has immediate implications for the equity premium puzzle. We show how these results apply to other outstanding problems of empirical finance. Long-term autocorrelation studies focus on the statistical relation between successive holding period returns, where the holding period is of possibly extensive duration. If the equity market survives, then we find that average return in the beginning is higher than average return near the end of the time period. For this reason, statistical measures of long-term dependence are typically biased towards the rejection of a random walk. The result also has implications for event studies. There is a strong association between the magnitude of an earnings announcement and the postannouncement performance of the equity. This might be explained in part as an artefact of the stock price performance of firms in financial distress that survive an earnings announcement. The final example considers stock split studies. In this analysis we implicitly exclude securities whose price on announcement is less than the prior average stock price. We apply our results to this case, and find that the condition that the security forms part of our positive stock split sample suffices to explain the upward trend in event-related cumulated excess return in the preannouncement period.     

Persistence characteristics of Latin American financial markets

The financial rates of return from Latin American stock and currency markets are found to be non-normal, non-stationary, non-ergodic, and long-term dependent, i.e., they have long memory. The degree of long-term dependence is measured by monofractal (global) Hurst exponents from wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA). Scalograms and scalegrams provide the respective visualizations of these wavelet coefficients and the power spectrum of the rates of return. The slope of the power spectrum identifies the Hurst exponent and thereby the degree of time-scaling dependence that cannot be determined by Box–Jenkins type, stationarity-based, time series analysis. Our long-term dependence and time–frequency scaling results are consistent with similar empirical findings from American, European, and Asian financial markets. They extend the domain of the empirical investigation of the dynamics and risk characteristics of the global financial markets and refute the hypothesis of perfectly efficient financial markets.     

Emerging market bond returns—An investor perspective

The novel features of this study consist in applying a conventional multifactor global market model to emerging market sovereign bond index rates of return that are denominated in US dollars and subsequently relating the unexplained residuals from the market model's estimates of each country's total bond index return to country-specific factors. They include political and financial risks as well as other presumed determinants of bond index rates of return. The results of our study confirm that sovereign countries’ bond index rates of return that include interest payments and capital gains/losses may be explained in terms of conventional bond pricing models by combining global market factors with local risk and other country-specific influences.     

Extreme spillovers across Asian-Pacific currencies: A quantile-based analysis

The Asia-Pacific region remains understudied regarding return connectedness among exchange rate markets. Furthermore, previous studies mostly use average-based estimators to measure return connectedness, even though they are not necessarily suitable to quantify connectedness measures during extreme events, i.e. in the tails of the conditional distribution. The aim of this paper is to study the dynamic connectedness among 11 Asia-Pacific exchange rates from September 1994 to August 2019, not only on average but also in the left and right tails. Using mean-based measures of connectedness, the level of return connectedness is on average 32%, indicating a moderate level of connectedness across the currencies under study. However, using a novel quantile-based connectedness framework, the level of connectedness is found to be much higher, reaching around 85% at both the left and right tails of the conditional distribution. This result shows that return connectedness across the 11 exchange rates is much stronger during extreme negative and extreme positive events, suggesting that the application of mean-based models of connectedness in the Asia-Pacific exchange rate markets is too restrictive and inadequate. Furthermore, return connectedness measures are time-varying in all cases, but are less volatile in the tails. A detailed analysis involving the relative tail dependence shows that an asymmetric behaviour is present, indicating that return spillovers differ between periods of extreme market depreciations and periods of extreme market appreciations.     

A text book treatment of calculating returns on non-traditional portfolios

This paper addresses a gap in traditional portfolio literature by providing techniques for identifying returns on non-traditional portfolios.Futures contracts require daily cash flows over the holding period; these cash flows determine the rate of return. The security deposit represents a tied investment since the funds are not available for other uses and do not earn a risk adjusted return. To initiate a short option or a short stock position also requires a cash outflow. The cash outflow or equity deposit effectively constitutes an investment since the trader postpones consumption in a risky medium that does not guarantee the return of the funds.By identifying the amount of the investment and rates of returns, it is possible to extend normative investment analysis to non-traditional portfolio holdings. This paper introduces four propositions to aid in this process.     

STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE AND TRUNCATED SAMPLE DATA

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the chance of making erroneous investment decisions can be reduced by applying stochastic dominance rules to truncated, rather than complete, sample data of rates of return. A simulation approach is used that assumes the rates of return follow the symmetric stable probability distribution. Using a variety of relationships between probability distributions of rates of return, it is demonstrated that sample truncation has the potential of significantly reducing sampling errors in the selection between alternative investments.     

Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates

This study examines return predictability of major foreign exchange rates by testing for martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) using daily and weekly nominal exchange rates from 1975 to 2009. We use three alternative tests for the MDH, which include the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test, generalized spectral test, and Dominguez–Lobato consistent tests. We evaluate time-varying return predictability by applying these tests with fixed-length moving sub-sample windows. While exchange rate returns are found to be unpredictable most of times, we do observe a number of episodes of statistically significant return predictability. They are mostly associated with the major events such as coordinated central bank interventions and financial crises. This finding suggests that return predictability of foreign exchange rates occurs from time to time depending on changing market conditions, consistent with the implications of the adaptive markets hypothesis.     

The Reversal of Large Stock-Price Decreases

Extremely large negative 10-day rates of return are followed on average by larger-than-expected positive rates of return over following days. This price adjustment lasts approximately 2 days and is observed in a sample of firms that is largely devoid of methodological problems that might explain the reversal phenomenon. While perhaps not representing abnormal profit opportunities, these reversals present a puzzle as to the length of the price adjustment period. Such a slow recovery is inconsistent with the notion that market prices quickly reflect relevant information.