审计风险成因--基于信息经济学的分析

文章从信息经济学的角度,通过对自然存在的不确定性以及股东和审计人员、管理层与审计人员之间的信息不对称等对审计风险的影响的分析表明,建立和完善审计风险的管理体制,完善审计市场结构、公司与事务所的治理结构,引入必要的激励和约束机制,可以减少交易各方的信息不对称,从而改善审计业务市场的交易效率和效益,降低社会性的审计风险水平。     

Buyer–Supplier and Supplier–Supplier Alliances: Do They Reinforce or Undermine One Another?

abstract    Previous research has portrayed buyer–supplier and supplier–supplier alliances as important mechanisms to foster learning and exchange efficiencies. Controversy remains, however, as to how these alliances interact. While some propose they reinforce one another (e.g. learning in horizontal ties generates positive spillovers to vertical ties), others propose a negative interplay (e.g. when increasing vertical-tie intensity, suppliers may weaken horizontal ties to avoid retaliation from buyers who wish to preserve bargaining power). We empirically test these competing views using survey data from the Brazilian auto-parts industry. In an attempt at reconciliation, we propose that the positive or negative interaction between vertical and horizontal alliances depends on the level of technological uncertainty of goods exchanged. Vertical ties seem to inhibit horizontal ties when technological uncertainty is low; when technological uncertainty is higher, vertical and horizontal ties do not seem to have any meaningful form of interaction. We discuss implications for theory and practice.     

Uncertainty,supply risk management and their impact on performance

The purpose of this research is to identify the antecedents of supply risk management performance. Speed consortium benchmarking is used to explore the concepts of supply risk monitoring and mitigation. In addition, a survey yielding 207 responses is used to test our hypothesized antecedents of supply risk management performance. Findings indicate that the transaction cost constructs environmental- and behavioral uncertainty have a negative effect on supply risk management performance. In addition, supply risk mitigation and supply risk management process maturity positively influence supply risk management performance, the latter having the strongest influence. Furthermore, supply risk monitoring, supply risk mitigation and supply risk management process maturity all moderate the effect of environmental uncertainty, whereas only risk monitoring has an influence on the relationship between behavioral uncertainty and supply risk management performance. This research identified not only the antecedents of supply risk management performance, but also the moderating effect of different supply risk management principles on the relation between uncertainty and supply risk management performance. Most importantly, our study shows the relevance of developing general supply risk management structures and capabilities (i.e. supply risk management process maturity) in order to manage supply risks successfully. Our findings indicate that even more important than the proper selection of individual risk monitoring and mitigation strategies is the implementation of a risk management process.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: A world with higher inflation

• Our world GDP growth forecasts are unchanged this month, at 2.6% for 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. But we expect a sizeable increase in inflation, to 3.3% in 2017 from an estimated 2.8% in 2016, as the effect of higher oil prices feeds through.
• Global indicators continue to point to a pick‐up in activity towards the end of last year, driven by stronger manufacturing activity. The global manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in almost three years in December, while the composite index – which includes services – was at a 13‐month high.
• World trade should be underpinned by stronger growth in the US (2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018), bolstered by the anticipated effects of President Trump's expansive fiscal policies. That said, uncertainties around our central forecast are unusually high given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration. Encouragingly, there are increasing signs that the tighter labour market is leading to a pick‐up in wage inflation in the US, which will support consumers.
• Given these reflationary trends, we expect two increases in the Federal funds rate this year and US bond yields are likely to continue to rise. The widening of interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone will drive the euro down to parity with the US dollar by end‐2017 for the first time since 2002.
• We have revised our Brexit assumptions this month. We now assume that the two‐year period of exit negotiations is followed by a transitional arrangement lasting 2–3 years. This would provide breathing space to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU.
• Emerging market growth on the whole will improve in 2017 but performance will differ across countries: Russia and Brazil will exit recession, but countries with weak balance of payments positions, high dollar debt and exposure to possible US protectionist actions will be at risk. In China, policymakers are moving to greater emphasis on reducing financial risks and less focus on the 6.5% GDP growth target for 2017. Continued action is also likely to dampen further depreciation of the CNY.

     

The R&D Investment–Uncertainty Relationship: Do Strategic Rivalry and Firm Size Matter?

This paper uses a real options perspective to augment a standard research and development (R&D) investment model and implement a firm‐level empirical analysis to assess the practical significance of market uncertainty and its interactions with strategic rivalry and firm size. We use a measure of firm‐relevant market uncertainty along with panel data and find that firms invest less in current R&D as uncertainty about market returns increases. The effect of firm‐specific uncertainty on R&D investment is smaller in markets where strategic rivalry is likely to be more intense. Furthermore, holding access to financing constant, the effect of uncertainty on R&D investment is attenuated for large firms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Antecedents of New Director Social Capital

Prior research shows that firms benefit from the social capital of their boards of directors but has not explored the antecedents of new director social capital. We argue that firms can attract directors with social capital by offering more compensation. We also argue that more complex firms (firms with a greater scale and scope of operations) are more attractive to such directors because of the greater experience and exposure that such directorships provide. Similarly, we argue that firms with high‐status directors on their current boards will be more attractive to directors with social capital. We analyse the social capital of new outside directors added to boards of semiconductor firms between 1993 and 2007. Surprisingly, we find no support for the hypothesis that higher compensation is associated with adding directors with high status or board ties. However, firm complexity is associated with the ability to add new directors who have social capital, and the status of current board members is associated with the ability to add new directors who also have high status.     

Evidence of irreversibility in the UK property market

The real options approach to valuation of property investment suggests that various sources of uncertainty about future returns on investment have important effects on irreversible property investment decisions. Our aim in this study has been to examine how investment decisions at three main stages of the property development/investment processes respond to different sources of uncertainty. Based on the methodology developed by Episcopos (1995), the neo-classical proposition of Hartman-Abel that predicts a positive investment-uncertainty relationship is tested against that proposed by the real option theory. It is interesting to note that our empirical findings are generally consistent with the prediction of the real option theory that uncertainty increases the option value to wait for the arrival of new information thus decreasing the current investment activities. In periods of high volatility, we would expect investors in the property market to be more prudent and scale down their investment exposure to market volatility compared with periods of a relatively stable market environment.     

Political Tie Heterogeneity and the Impact of Adverse Shocks on Firm Value

Past research has recognized the contingent value of corporate political ties but largely neglects their heterogeneity. Drawing on the political embeddedness perspective and literature on emerging economy political institutions, we develop hypotheses regarding how political networks comprising managerial and government ownership ties may have different valuation effects in the face of adverse political shocks. Examining stock market responses to an unanticipated, high‐profile political event in China, we find a negative valuation effect of managerial ties to municipal government, but an insignificant effect of government ownership ties. Further, companies combining managerial and ownership ties experienced less post‐shock reduction in market value than those holding only managerial political ties. These findings shed light on the values of different configurations of corporate political ties and inform firms of potential ways to manage ubiquitous political hazards in emerging economies.     

Optimal Two‐Part Pricing under Demand Uncertainty

This paper examines the pricing behavior of a risk‐averse monopolistic firm under demand uncertainty. The firm produces a single good at a constant marginal cost. To facilitate sales, the firm uses a two‐part pricing contract that includes a membership fee and a selling price per unit. The good is sold to a continuum of heterogeneous consumers who are subject to a common demand shock. We show that the global and marginal effects of risk aversion are to push the unit price closer to the constant marginal cost and to shrink the market coverage so as to limit the firm’s risk exposure to the demand uncertainty. The more risk‐averse firm as such charges a higher membership fee to consumers. We further show that an increase in the fixed cost of production induces the firm to lower (raise) the unit price, to raise (lower) the membership fee, and to shrink (enlarge) the market coverage under decreasing (increasing) absolute risk aversion. The firm’s optimal two‐part pricing contract, however, is unaffected by changes in the fixed cost under constant absolute risk aversion. Finally, we show that a mean‐preserving‐spread increase in the demand uncertainty induces the firm to lower the unit price, to raise the membership fee, and to shrink the market coverage under either decreasing or constant absolute risk aversion. The firm’s risk preferences as such play a pivotal role in determining the optimal two‐part pricing under demand uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental and Firm Level Influences on Inter‐Organizational Trust and SME Performance

We investigate the effects of focal firm knowledge intensity and uncertainty on inter‐organizational trust and subsequent performance of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs). We integrate the trust literature with transaction cost literature as both of these offer partial explanations of the dynamics of inter‐organizational trust in the context of an SME. We propose that knowledge intensity of the focal firm will have a positive relationship while uncertainty will have a negative relationship with inter‐organizational trust in an exchange relationship. Further, we propose a positive relationship between trust and SME performance, which will be contingent on the level of external and internal uncertainty faced by the focal firm. Empirical evidence, based on the survey data of 565 German SMEs, mostly supports our arguments.     

Environmental Policies and Firm Value

Many organizations are currently becoming more environmentally friendly. Eco‐efficiency maximizes the effectiveness of a business operation while reducing its impact on the environment; with the necessary skills, organizations can create more value while using less input. Prior empirical studies have suggested that firms engaging in eco‐efficient activities are better valued than those without such activities. Therefore, this will enhance business efficiency and excellence. This study investigates the link between eco‐efficiency, as environmental policy, and firm value in the United Kingdom (UK) for the period 1999 to 2008. We generate new insights into environmental–financial performance by using different definitions of the term ‘eco‐efficiency’. In the UK context our results support that eco‐efficient firms have higher market values than those lacking environmental strategies. Hence, we recommend that firms become involved in environmental polices since the adoption of these polices will have a positive impact on firm value. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

An institutional perspective of public policy and network effects in the renewable energy industry: enablers or disablers of entrepreneurial behaviour and innovation?

This study extends theory on the effects of public policies stimulating technology demand and of industry network ties on firm-level entrepreneurial behaviour. We take an institutional perspective to develop a theoretical model examining the mechanisms through which public policies, regulatory uncertainty, and industry network ties affect firm-level entrepreneurial decision-making processes and the ability to introduce highly innovative products and to sustain superior performance. We focus on firm-level effects, which enables the study of the tension between institutional pressures of homogeneity and competitive pressures of heterogeneity for entrepreneurial decision-making processes in environments characterized by policy-induced market demands. To test our hypotheses, we draw on data from a large-scale survey among German renewable energy firms. Our results show that public policies can constrain firm innovativeness and risk-taking behaviour because they steer firms towards a more conservative attitude and discourage the pursuit of high-risk innovation projects. However, firms can counteract these influences and enhance their innovativeness by maintaining close network ties with research associations as we find that innovativeness and a highly innovative product portfolio are key success factors. In summary, these findings provide important implications for the study of public policy effects, industry network ties and entrepreneurial behaviour.     

Uncertainty-driven labor market fluctuations

This paper explores uncertainty shocks as a driving force in a search and matching model of the labor market. Uncertainty takes the form of a noisy component in a firm׳s initial signal about job productivity. Greater uncertainty dampens job creation by increasing the risk of making the costly mistake of investing in jobs that will turn out to be unprofitable. Thus, uncertainty shocks can cause labor market downturns: lower vacancy rates, lower job-finding rates, and higher unemployment. Numerical simulations examine the level of volatility and the cross-correlations and autocorrelations of key U.S. labor market indicators that result from fluctuations driven by changes in uncertainty.     

Second‐Mover Advantages with Asymmetric Costs and Information Updates: A Product Life Cycle Perspective

Two firms with asymmetric costs engage in a Stackelberg game under multiple levels of uncertainty with information updating. A product life cycle perspective is employed to reveal when and why a second‐mover may have an advantage. At early stages in the product life cycle, when uncertainty is the dominating factor, the impact of uncertainty may be either positive or negative. As a result, the Stackelberg leader faces the possibility of either overshooting or losing its market leadership position to the second‐mover. In later market stages, when cost is more important, a process‐innovating second‐mover may accrue higher profits. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Market falls overstate loss of momentum

• ? Financial market moves in recent months suggest that there is increasing concern about a substantial global growth slowdown or even a recession. But we continue to see this as an over‐reaction to the weakening economic data; while the downside risks to the global GDP growth outlook have clearly risen, our baseline forecast for 2019 is little changed at 2.7%, down from 3% in 2018.
• ? Recent economic news confirms that the Q3 economic soft patch appears to have spilled over into Q4, particularly in the industrial sector which has seen a broad‐based loss of momentum in many economies coinciding with a further slowdown in global trade growth. But while surveys of service sector activity have also moderated, the falls have been rather less abrupt, suggesting that overall global GDP growth is slowing albeit not alarmingly so.
• ? On balance, we think that the weaker data do not provide compelling evidence that global growth is slowing more sharply than our December forecast. Although the financial market sell‐off and associated tightening in financial conditions will impinge on growth, this may at least be partly offset by weaker inflation in response to lower oil prices, now seen at US$61pb in 2019. This, combined with the continued strength of labour markets and the likelihood of further moderate wage growth, points to a further period of solid household spending growth.
• ? Nonetheless, the risk of a sharper slowdown has risen. Cyclical risks have increased over the past couple of years as spare capacity has diminished. And uncertainty over the economic and financial market impact of the unwinding of central balance sheets have added to the risk of policy mistakes.
• ? Although our central view is that the recent financial market correction will not morph into something rather nastier, further sustained weakness (particularly if accompanied by dollar strength) would have more significant implications for activity and could see world growth falling below the 2016 post‐crisis low of 2.4%.

     

Global Engagement and Returns Volatility

This paper finds that a greater reliance on foreign market sales increases the volatility of firms’ stock returns, using high‐frequency data for publicly listed Japanese manufacturing firms over the period 2000–10. The two margins of global engagement we consider, namely, exports and sales via foreign affiliates (horizontal foreign direct investment), have both a positive and economically significant effect on firm‐level volatility. We find, however, that increasing the intensity of sales through foreign affiliates has a stronger effect on volatility than a similar change in export intensity. We also uncover evidence consistent with the notion that firms’ need to use external finance to cover the substantial costs involved in reaching foreign consumers can be an important channel through which firms’ participation in international markets increases their exposure to economic uncertainty.     

A firm's external environment and the hiring of a non‐standard workforce: implications for organisations

This article empirically investigates organisations' strategic decision to hire non‐standard employees. Using US firm‐level data and a matched pair design, the study shows that firms operating in a more competitive environment and a less uncertain environment have a higher proportion of non‐standard workers. Further, firms with a greater proportion of non‐standard workers show higher financial growth. And finally, in a highly competitive environment, those firms that hire more non‐standard workers achieve significantly higher financial growth. Similar growth is experienced by those firms in the low uncertainty environment hiring more non‐standard workers. These results are all consistent with the research hypotheses.     

The risk spillover between China’s economic policy uncertainty and commodity markets: Evidence from frequency spillover and quantile connectedness approaches

Based on the frequency spillover method extended by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), we explore the risk spillover relationship between China’s economic policy uncertainty (CNEPU) and commodity futures in different frequency domains with daily settlement price data of 14 commodity futures in China. The results show that the risk spillover relationship between CNEPU and the commodity market mainly occurs in the short term. Quantile connectedness results show that economic policy uncertainty, which mainly plays the role of risk transmitter, is more closely related to the commodity market during the market boom and recession. Soybeans, soybean meal, and corn have shown high investment value in the process of market recovery, which is exposed to less risk spillover from policy uncertainty. Finally, the economic crisis with different characteristics will have specific impacts on asymmetric risk spillovers based on certain impact mechanisms.     

人力资本投资风险与企业激励制度创新

在知识经济时代,人力资本投资能够显著增强企业的竞争力;但当投资完成,由于违约造成的劳动力流失会严重影响企业的投资收益和市场力量。文章认为,违约风险的产生与企业激励机制不完善有关。通过对企业原有激励制度进行创新和改革,加强对精神激励的重视,能够降低违约风险。     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.