中国资本账户开放及金融稳定

本文针对中国资本账户开放及金融现状进行分析.结论提示,目前,中国资本账户的开放步伐会渐进加速;中国的金融发展程度在逐渐提高的大背景下,这几年会出现一定程度的回调;中国金融体系中存在着大量的不稳定因素,从2002年开始,金融稳定状况开始出现一定程度的恶化,但目前发生系统性金融危机的可能性还较小.     

中部塌陷、金融弱化与中部崛起的金融支持

本文从分析中部地区经济与金融发展的现状入手,探究中部地区经济增长瓶颈以及金融弱化之间的关系,并运用中部六省的省级数据,通过面板数据单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对中部地区金融发展与经济增长总量、产业结构优化以及城镇化水平之间的长期关系和短期关系进行了研究。结果显示,中部金融发展与经济增长具有长期的均衡关系,金融发展能够为中部崛起提供有利的支持,但在短期则无明显关系。在此基础上,提出了实现中部崛起与金融发展的路径选择与政策建议。     

中国金融发展与外贸关系的面板协整检验和因果分析

基于跨省面板数据,运用面板协整理论和面板因果检验方法分析了中国金融发展与对外贸易之间的关系.多种协整检验方法一致表明,金融发展与出口贸易、金融发展与进口贸易之间都存在长期均衡稳定关系;而基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果检验则表明金融发展与对外贸易之间同时存在长、短期双向因果关系.这意味着在金融深化改革和贸易增长方式调整的特殊历史时期,保持金融和贸易政策的有效组合具有十分重要的意义.     

金融发展、科技创新与产业升级——基于VAR和中介效应模型的实证研究

通过构建VAR模型和中介效应模型,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、交叉相关图、脉冲响应图对中国金融发展、科技创新和产业升级的关系进行实证分析和检验。结果表明:金融发展、科技创新和产业升级三者间具有长期的协整关系,彼此间具有相互促进的作用和影响,并且三者间任一变量在其他两个变量的影响中都具有中介效应。金融发展和科技创新对产业升级以及彼此的积极影响在短期内可以体现,但产业升级对金融发展和科技创新的影响,长期比短期更为显著。此外,短期内促进产业升级对经济社会的影响并不明显,但从长远来看,促进产业升级对经济社会发展具有重要的战略意义。     

省域自主创新的金融支撑体系研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

本文运用面板协整分析、Granger因果检验与误差修正模型,对1998-2008年我国31个省域的金融支撑体系与自主创新能力之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：长期来看,我国省域金融支撑与自主创新之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,金融支持是自主创新的Granger原因,并且落后地区自主创新的发展对金融的依赖性要大于发达地区。从短期来看,金融体系的不同方面对自主创新的影响却大相径庭。其中金融规模对自主创新具有正的短期效应,但这种短期效应具有时滞性,一般在3年后才开始显现出来。而金融体系的金融效率和金融结构对自主创新起抑制作用。     

农村正规金融会抑制经济增长吗?——以陕西为例

基于陕西省1978年～2009年时间序列数据,分别运用Johansen协整检验,向量误差修正模型和方差分析方法对陕西农村正规金融与经济增长的长期和短期关系进行检验。结果表明:短时期内,农村正规金融对经济增长具有正向促进作用,按其贡献率的大小分别是农村正规金融发展水平、资本边际生产率、农村金融体系效率以及农村储蓄率,但各变量的长期关系反映出农村正规金融发展水平和效率会对农村经济增长产生抑制作用。     

金融发展、城市化与城乡收入差距的作用机制及协整分析

基于2000—2008年间省级面板数据设定面板协整模型,对我国金融发展、城市化与城乡收入差距的长期关系进行分析非常必要。在此期间,我国的金融发展水平、城市化水平与城乡收入差距之间存在长期稳定的面板协整关系,总体看来,金融市场的发展加快城市化进程的作用显著,城市化缩小城乡收入差距的作用亦显著,但这两种效应均具有显著的区域差异。     

农村非正规金融与农村经济增长——基于金融转移视角

基于金融转移视角,在探讨金融转移下农村非正规金融产生原因的基础上,通过协整分析和Granger因果检验,实证研究了我国1986—2009年期间农村非正规金融与农村经济增长的关系。研究表明,农村非正规金融与农村经济增长之间存在一种长期稳定的协整关系,非正规金融是农村经济增长的Granger原因,非正规金融明显促进了农村经济增长。这一实证研究对中国通过正确引导农村非正规金融进而促进农村经济增长具有重要的政策意义。     

泛珠三角地区金融集聚与经济增长——基于1982—2007年的数据分析

通过计算泛珠三角地区的赫芬达尔指数,发现泛珠三角地区的金融业存在集聚现象,而且金融发展很不平衡,广东一个省所拥有的金融资源几乎占到整个泛珠三角地区的1/2。通过协整分析发现,泛珠三角地区的金融集聚与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,金融集聚促进了经济增长。误差修正项系数为-0.305,符合反向修正机制,存在短期到长期的动态调整关系。     

农村金融发展影响农民收入的地区差异

基于1995—2009年中国29个省份的面板数据,从金融规模、金融结构和金融效率三个层面,运用面板协整方法和误差修正模型实证分析了东、中、西部地区农村金融发展水平影响农民收入的地区差异。结果发现,西部地区农村金融发展与居民收入之间不存在长期的均衡关系;而东部地区和中部地区的农村金融发展水平与农民收入之间具有显著的长期均衡关系,但在短期无明显的关系。在此基础上,从中西部农村地区金融机构发展、金融服务创新和金融生态环境治理等方面提出了相关的政策建议。     

资本账户开放与系统性金融危机

本研究以全球范围内具有代表性的55个国家的跨国数据为基础,通过实证分析系统考察了资本账户开放和系统性金融危机之间的相关关系.实证结果表明,在资本账户开放和系统性金融危机的联系机制方面,重要的是开放方式的选择,而不是开放程度的高低:长期中资本账户开放程度的提高不会诱发金融危机,但激进式的资本账户开放方式会显著增加金融危机的发生概率.     

Financial and Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Development and Economic Development: A Review of Some Recent Contributions

Abstract

This article presents a review of some recent contributions on the relation between global finance and economic development in emerging economies. It first, stresses the growing consensus among economists on the financial instability that financial and capital account liberalization can possibly cause in emerging economies. It then outlines and compares two alternative strategies to tame such instability. The comparison is between the “good-institutions need-to-come-first” approach put forward by some mainstream economists, and the request for a deeper reform of the existing monetary system advocated by heterodox economists.     

Globalization,Financial Liberalization and the Behavior of the Long Run Money Demand in the Bangladesh Economy

ABSTRACT

The paper estimates the long run demand for money function in the Bangladesh economy using cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM) technique. The cointegration results suggest that although the process of globalization has shown no significant impact on money demand by the fact that the foreign interest rate is seen as statistically not significant, the financial liberalization has an important impact, reflected in the statistically significant role of domestic interest rate, in influencing both M1 and M2 money demand. An estimate of VECMs also reveals the fact that the short run speed of adjustment is moderately influenced by the financial reform measures to establish the long run relation between money balances, income and domestic interest rates. The phenomenon of credit constraint in the context of a developing country has shown no significant role in influencing money demand, which may imply that the stage of financial development is getting higher level in the Bangladesh economy. The existence of exchange rate depreciation in the cointegration relation with the expected sign suggests that currency substitution is now effective in the monetary sector and, therefore, its impact should be considered in the Bangladesh monetary policy matrix.     

Financial development,financial liberalization and social capital

The relationship between financial liberalization policies and financial development is controversial. The impact of these policies differs greatly across countries. In the literature, the quality of formal institutions has been identified as an important source of this heterogeneity, as countries with a weak institutional environment generally fail to benefit from financial liberalization. Using panel data covering 82 countries for the period 1973–2008, we find evidence that social capital may substitute for formal institutions as a prerequisite for effective financial liberalization policies. In particular, we find that during the post Washington-consensus period countries with a high prevailing level of social capital can ensure that financial liberalization positively influences financial development, despite the poor quality of their formal institutions.     

Financial Openness in Turkey

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of financial liberalization on the financial and real sectors of the Turkish economy. The process of liberalization began over 15 years ago simultaneously with a stabilization programme that had been designed according to neoclassical model. The implementation addressed first foreign trade, then the domestic financial market and finally foreign capital movements. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the opening of the capital account induced adverse effects on financial intermediation, savings, investment, growth and foreign debt.     

International Financial Liberalization, Corruption, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the effects of capital account liberalization on the long-run growth of a developing economy. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is constructed in which corruption forms an integral part of the governance system of the country. By undermining the profitability of innovations, corruption lowers the rate of return to capital and reduces the rate of technological change. The impact of international financial liberalization on long-run growth in this model can be either positive or negative. A drop in growth is obtained when the level of corruption is high enough to cause domestic rates of return to capital before liberalization to drop below those in the rest of the world. In this case, liberalization generates capital outflows, which act as a constraining force on innovation, reducing the rate of technological change and lowering output growth. On the other hand, if the level of corruption is sufficiently low, the capital account liberalization will serve as a boost to the country's technical change and growth.     

WTO框架下中国金融市场开放的最优安排

加入WTO标志着中国的金融改革要向自由化方向迈进.本文从金融自由化与金融全球化的推进逻辑出发,分析了当中国引入WTO变量后,如何通过修正金融改革路径实现金融市场开放的最优选择.其中引言部分综述了金融自由化理论的发展及中国面临的挑战;第二部分提出引入WTO变量后中国金融改革路径的修正;第三部分实证性地研究了中国推进金融市场开放的最优顺序安排;最后是结论及进一步改革建议.     

关于金融危机时期金融自由化的反思

美国金融危机在全世界范围引发了对金融领域发展尤其是20世纪下半叶以来的金融自由化的重新思考。在后危机时期,对金融自由化的反思仍显重要。采用研究金融自由化影响的标准化模型,加入主权债务风险等因素进行修正,进而获得启示,并对我国金融领域发展提出建议。     

Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization: the Case of Korea

The macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization in Korea are examined. Simple data analysis suggests that capital account liberalization substantially changed the nature and composition of capital flows. Based on the VAR model, the authors find the following stylized facts. First, after capital market liberalization, capital flows become less driven by current account imbalances and therefore become more autonomous. Second, capital account liberalization significantly changes the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables. Third, capital account liberalization is highly related to consumption and investment booms, and subsequent appreciation of nominal and real exchange rates, which leads to the current account worsening. Finally, there is strong evidence of sterilized foreign exchange market intervention in response to capital inflows.     

Financial reporting quality and price competition among nonprofit firms

The article examines some statistical evidence that supports the view that US labour and capital shares of income return to some long-run historical values. We estimate the long-run share values and the length of time it takes to converge to them. We account for the interdependence of the shares by using a vector error–correction model, and this specification is tested against a VAR alternative using Johansen's method to characterize the properties of the cointegrating vector. We find support for the idea that labour and capital shares have historically been mean reverting, in spite of the fairly restrictive assumptions implied when invoking the Cobb–Douglas production function as the rationale. The cumulative impulse response functions indicate that for capital and labour shares, the time required to revert back to long run levels is in the order of thirty quarters.