Sovereign Credit Risk,Banks' Government Support,and Bank Stock Returns around the World

We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.     

Bank Consolidation and Soft Information Acquisition in Small Business Lending

We empirically examine the impact of bank consolidation on bank acquisition of soft information about borrowers. Using a dataset of small business financing, we find that mergers of small banks have a negative impact on soft information acquisition, whereas mergers of large banks have no impact. We also find some evidence that an increase in organizational complexity upon a merger, rather than a post-merger cost-cut, is likely to cause a negative and significant impact on soft information acquisition by small banks. These findings are consistent with the organizational theory that predicts a comparative advantage of simple and flat organizations in acquiring and processing soft information.     

Competition versus efficiency: What drives franchise values in European banking?

This paper investigates how stock market investors perceive the impact of market structure and efficiency on the long-run performance potential of European banks. To that end, a modified Tobin’s Q ratio is introduced as a measure of bank franchise value. This measure is applied to discriminate between the market structure and efficient-structure hypotheses in a coherent forward-looking framework, in which differences in banks’ horizontal and vertical differentiation strategies are controlled for. The results show that banks with better management or production technologies possess a long-run competitive advantage. In addition, bank market concentration does not affect all banks equally. Only the banks with a large market share in a concentrated market are able to generate non-competitive rents. The paper further documents that the forward-looking, long-run perspective and the noise-adjustment of the performance measure overcome most of the drawbacks associated with testing these hypotheses in a multi-country set-up. Finally, notwithstanding the international expansion of bank activities, the harmonization of regulation and the macroeconomic convergence in the European Union (EU15), we still find that country-specific macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on bank performance. The findings indicate that there is a trade-off between competition and stability that should be taken into account when assessing mergers or acquisitions.     

Bank risk and monetary policy

We find evidence of a bank lending channel operating in the euro area via bank risk. Financial innovation and the wider use of new ways of transferring credit risk have tended to diminish the informational content of standard bank balance sheet indicators. We show that bank risk conditions, as perceived by financial market investors, need to be considered, together with the other indicators (i.e., size, liquidity and capitalization), traditionally used in the bank lending channel literature to assess banks’ ability and willingness to supply new loans. Using a large sample of European banks, we find that banks characterized by lower expected default frequency are able to offer a larger amount of credit and to better insulate their loan supply from monetary policy changes.     

Firm valuations and board compensation: Evidence from alternative banking models

This study examines whether the board of directors' compensation schemes affect stock market valuations for banks in a dual banking system (Islamic and conventional banks). We employ an international sample of 11 countries for the period 2010–2015. Our results show that for the full sample (i.e. irrespective of the bank type), board of directors' compensation has a significant and positive impact on stock market valuations. For different bank types, we find that the positive effect of the board of directors' compensation on market valuations holds only for conventional banks, with insignificant evidence for their Islamic counterparts. We, also, examine the impact of Shari'ah supervisory board's compensation on Islamic banks value. Our results show that investors positively perceived and priced information related to this boards' compensation.     

Market discipline and bank efficiency

This paper investigates whether depositors and market investors exert disciplinary pressure on bank management in terms of efficiency improvement. We find that banks with more outstanding deposits are more cost-efficient, although little effect is found with respect to profit efficiency. This implies that depositors, the primary providers of funds to banks, likely play an important role in disciplining bank management, at least in terms of enforcing efficient use of inputs. Market discipline has garnered increasing attention as a mechanism to ensure bank soundness. Our results imply that depositors, the largest creditors to banks, may be of primary importance in this mechanism.     

Aggressive CEOs and bank mergers and acquisitions

The U.S. banking industry has seen waves of mergers since the 1980s. Despite a significant body of research on the determinants of these waves, there are few studies of how CEOs influence banks’ mergers and acquisitions (M&As). This paper studies the effect of CEO aggressiveness on bank M&As. We construct a new measure of bank CEO aggressiveness based on CEOs’ ancestral countries of origin and data on inter-country wars. We find that aggressive CEOs are more likely to acquire other banks. Moreover, the impact of CEO aggressiveness on bank M&A decisions is more pronounced when the CEOs are from larger and more profitable banks, when CEOs have a longer tenure, and when CEOs’ ancestral country of origin has a more masculine culture. Moreover, we show that aggressive CEOs are more likely to make acquisitions when CEOs possess more cultural maintenance, which captures the extent to which CEOs retain their original cultural values and beliefs. Finally, we document positive short-term stock market reactions to bank M&As initiated by aggressive CEOs.     

Are Differences in Acquiring Bank Profit Efficiency Priced in Financial Markets?

We analyze 271 bank mergers for 1986–2001 to attempt to determine if differences among acquirers in profit efficiency are priced in financial markets. We find that the acquirer’s pre-merger profit efficiency (as well as its experience in handling other mergers) has positive effects on the wealth of the acquiring bank’s shareholders. We also find that more profit efficient acquiring banks produce lower abnormal returns for the target, suggesting that well managed (i.e., more profit-efficient) banks are less likely to overpay when they enter into a merger agreement. Financial market participants apparently take something akin to the econometric concept of profit efficiency into account when they make decisions about bank stock purchases and sales around merger announcement dates.      

Market price accounting and depositor discipline: The case of Japanese regional banks

We examine the determinants of Japanese regional bank pricing-to-market decisions and their impact on the intensity of depositor discipline, in the form of the sensitivity of deposit growth to bank financial conditions. To obtain consistent estimates, we first model and estimate the bank pricing-to-market decision and then estimate the intensity of depositor discipline after conditioning for that decision. We find that banks were less likely to adopt market price accounting the larger were their unrealized securities losses. We also find statistically significant evidence of depositor discipline among banks that elected to price to market. Our results indicate that depositor discipline was more intense for the subset of banks that adopted market price accounting.     

MARKET POWER,BANK MEGAMERGERS,AND THE WELFARE OF BANK BORROWERS

We assess the effects on the welfare of corporate borrowers of the recent wave of bank consolidations in the United States that has produced a small number of very large banks. Our evidence from a sample of more than 3,000 commercial borrowers from banks involved in large mergers indicates that the wealth effects on these borrowers are highly negative, statistically significant, and economically important. These negative investor perceptions seem to be driven largely by the expectation of changes in banks’ market power resulting from the mergers.     

The Effects of Banking Mergers on Loan Contracts

This paper studies the effects of banking mergers on individual business borrowers. Using information on individual loan contracts between banks and companies, I analyze the effect of banking consolidation on banks' credit policies. I find that in-market mergers benefit borrowers if these mergers involve the acquisition of banks with small market shares. Interest rates charged by the consolidated banks decrease, but as the local market share of the acquired bank increases, the efficiency effect is offset by market power. Mergers have different distributional effects across borrowers. When banks become larger, they reduce the supply of loans to small borrowers.     

The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness

Doubts about the accuracy with which outside investors can assess a banking firm’s value motivate many government interventions in the banking market. Although the available empirical evidence is somewhat mixed, the recent financial crisis has reinforced a common assessment that banks are unusually opaque. This paper examines bank equity’s trading characteristics during “normal” periods and two “crisis” periods between 1993 and 2009. We find only limited (mixed) evidence that banks are unusually opaque during normal periods. However, consistent with theory, crises raise the adverse selection costs of trading bank shares relative to those of nonbank control firms. A bank’s balance sheet composition significantly affects its equity opacity, but we cannot detect specific balance sheet categories that have robust effects.     

INTERSTATE BANK MERGERS: THE EARLY EVIDENCE

This study examines the wealth effects of interstate bank mergers to both the acquired and acquiring firms' shareholders. While the overall results are consistent with the findings of research on nonfinancial mergers — that acquired firms' shareholders gain and acquiring firms' shareholders break even — there is evidence that the acquiring banks cannot be considered a homogeneous group. Specifically, banks involved in relatively large acquisitions earn positive and statistically significant abnormal returns and significantly outperform those involved in relatively smaller mergers. The results suggest there are differential opportunities for gain from interstate mergers, dependent upon the relative size of the acquisition and the degree to which it expands the geographic market served by the bank.     

The networking function of investment banks: Evidence from private investments in public equity

We examine investment banks' networking function in capital markets, using a sample of Private Investments in Public Equity (PIPEs). We argue that investment banks develop relationships with investors through repeat dealings, and that investment banks' networks of relationship investors form the basis of their networking function. We find that investment banks, especially those with larger investor networks, help issuers attract investors. Correspondingly, an issuer that desires more investors is more likely to hire an investment bank than place the shares directly. We also find that issuers pay higher fees to hire investment banks with larger investor networks. Our empirical findings suggest that the networking function of investment banks is important in securities offerings.     

Bondholders’ wealth effects in domestic and cross-border bank mergers

The recent credit crisis and the increased internationalization of the European banks have given the debate about the role of national regulators a renewed urgency. We therefore investigate the determinants of bondholders’ abnormal returns for both domestic and cross-border bank merger announcements that involve European acquirers for the period 1998–2002. We find that bondholders’ abnormal returns are higher for Domestic Mergers than cross-border mergers, in direct contrast to evidence from equity prices where no difference is found. Further investigations in which we control for the changes in market power for example suggest this result may be indicative of investors perceiving Domestic Mergers as increasing the probability of a government bailout in case of distress. Banks’ bondholders also experience higher abnormal returns when the country of the partner bank has stricter rules in relation to forbearance of prudential regulations than the own country, and when functional diversification between lending and fee/trading activities increases.     

Reducing the Risk at Small Community Banks: Is it Size or Geographic Diversification that Matters?*

Most community banks face relatively high levels of diversifiable credit risk because they have relatively few loan customers (idiosyncratic risk) and are not geographically diversified (local market risk). We simulate mergers among community banks to quantify the relative contributions of idiosyncratic risk and local market risk to the default risk assumed by community banks. We find that the greatest risk-reduction benefits are achieved by increasing a community bank’s size, regardless of where the expansion takes place. We interpret this result as evidence that idiosyncratic risk dominates local market risk, especially at rural banks. Community banks face enormous pressure to grow, yet the pressure to geographically diversify is limited. As a consequence, larger community banks are likely to replace smaller community banks, but their focus on relationship lending will not disappear.     

Foreign Ownership and Market Power in Banking: Evidence from a World Sample

The nexus between ownership and competition in the banking sector is a major concern to policymakers around the world but one that is rarely comprehensively examined. For 131 countries and 13 years we match bank ownership with over 50,000 bank‐year estimates of individual bank market power. We find that ownership does not explain market power at the individual bank level. However, at the country level, foreign bank ownership has a positive and significant impact on market power mainly because foreign banks enter through mergers or acquisitions and not through greenfield investments. The observed increases in market power primarily originate from decreases in the marginal cost.     

The Effect of Bank Relations on Investment Decisions: An Investigation of Japanese Takeover Bids

We study 154 domestic mergers in Japan during 1977 to 1993. In contrast to U.S. evidence, mergers are viewed favorably by investors of acquiring firms. We document a two-day acquirer abnormal return of 1.2 percent and a mean cumulative abnormal return of 5.4 percent for the duration of the takeover. Announcement returns display a strong positive association with the strength of acquirer's relationships with banks. The benefits of bank relations appear to be greater for firms with poor investment opportunities and when the banking sector is healthy. We conclude that close ties with informed creditors, such as banks, facilitate investment policies that enhance shareholder wealth.     

The Information Value of the Stress Test

We investigate whether the “stress test,” the extraordinary examination of the 19 largest U.S. bank holding companies conducted by federal bank supervisors in 2009, produced useful information for the market. Using standard event study techniques, we find that the market had largely deciphered on its own which banks would have capital gaps before the stress test results were revealed, but that the market was informed by the size of the gap; given our proxy for the expected gap, banks with larger capital gaps experienced more negative abnormal returns. Our findings are consistent with the view that the stress tests produced valuable information about banks.     

Do weak supervisory systems encourage bank risk-taking?

Weak bank supervision could give banks the ability to shift risk from themselves to supervisors. We use cross-border bank mergers as a natural experiment to test changes in risk and the impact of supervision. We examine cross-border bank mergers and find that the supervisory structures of the partners’ countries influence changes in post-merger total risk. An acquirer from a country with strong supervision lowers total risk after a cross-border merger. However, total risk increases when the target bank is located in a country with relatively strong supervision. This result is consistent with strong host regulators limiting the risky activities of their local banks. Foreign-owned competitors could then engage in the risky projects, especially if the foreign banks’ supervisors are not strong. An acquirer entering a country with strong supervision appears to shift risk back to its home country. The results suggest that bank supervisors can reduce total banking risk in their countries by being strong.