中国对美出口与美在华投资关系探讨

国际商品贸易与外商直接投资都是商品和生产要素在国际间流动的结果,具有十分密切的联系.中国和美国分别是世界上最大的发展中国家和发达国家,两国之间的投资和贸易典型地体现了发达国家对发展中国家的直接投资与贸易的关系.     

母国措施及其国际模式构建探析

母国措施对海外直接投资的流向特别是从发达国家流入发展中国家有着重要的影响，本文对母国措施的种类以及对外直接投资流动的影响进行分析，并建议如何在将来的国际投资协议中规范母国措施，保证发达国家促进对外直接投资流向发展中国家的母国措施的政策主张落实为实际的行动，帮助发展中国家更好的吸引外来投资，促进全球经济的共同发展。     

基于产业升级的中国企业对外直接投资区位选择

在分析不同投资区位对外直接投资促进我国产业升级机理的基础上,选取46个样本国家(地区),运用灰色关联分析法和GM(1,1)模型进行实证研究。研究结果表明,对其他发展中国家的对外直接投资对我国产业升级的促进作用越来越明显,而对周边发展中国家的对外直接投资对我国产业升级的影响在逐步减弱;对发达国家的对外直接投资对我国产业升级的促进作用较小。因此,为了更好地促进产业升级,中国企业应逐步减少对周边发展中国家对外直接投资,增加对其他发展中国家对外直接投资,并加快发展对发达国家的对外直接投资。     

中国企业：“走出去”海阔天高

根据《世界投资报告》，截至去年底，全球国际直接投资的68.1%流入了发达国家，29.8%流入了发展中国家，2.1%流入了中东欧国家。发达国家既是对外直接投资大国。也是吸收直接投资大国。不仅如此，就发达国家而言，全球国际直接投资存量的38.4%流向了西欧，24.9%流向了美、加；就发展中国家而言，全球直接投资存量的17.5%流向了亚洲，10.2%流向了拉美与加勒比地区。     

国际贸易中企业产品消费减污与政府R&D投资政策:基于Bertrand竞争的分析

本文以产品消费排污为基础 ,借鉴国际贸易中垂直差异产品的标准模型 ,建立国际贸易中差异减污模型 ,分析发达国家及发展中国家企业的产品消费减污选择及政府针对消费减污R&D投资的政策博弈。国际贸易中垂直差异产品的文献显示 ,发达国家与发展中国家的政府在产品 R&D投资政策上呈现不对称性 :非合作 Nash补贴 /征税均衡的特征是发展中国家进行投资补贴 ,发达国家进行投资征税。由于消费者剩余和产品消费负外部性的引入 ,本研究的结果却显示两国政府在产品减污 R&D投资政策上呈现对称性 :两国政府都对本国企业的产品减污 R&D给予补贴     

对外直接投资对母国全球价值链地位影响的实证研究

全球价值链分工深化为发展中国家带来了新的发展机遇。文章基于1995～2017年39个国家的数据实证检验了对外直接投资对全球价值链地位的影响,得出对外直接投资能够影响母国全球价值链地位的结论;并将样本分为发达国家与发展中国家,检验结果发现发达国家与发展中国家对外直接投资对母国全球价值链地位的影响存在异质性,发达国家的对外直接投资更能够促进母国全球价值链地位的提升,发展中国家的对外直接投资对母国参与全球价值链活动的影响存在两面性;进一步用中国16个行业2004～2014年的数据实证分析发现,目前中国对外直接投资能够对中国全球价值链地位产生积极影响,但是国内研发投入与对外直接投资之间产生了挤出效应,对外依存度的提高也会不利于中国全球价值链地位提升;文章最后将中国对外直接投资分为五大类进行实证检验,发现中央企业及单位的OFDI最能够促进中国GVC增加值的提高,对发展中国家进行投资更能够提升中国GVC增加值能力,给中国对外直接投资结构优化提供了参考。     

日本的亚太投资战略分析

一、国际直接投资发展的特点据国际货币基金组织(IMF)和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)最新统计资料,自80年代后半期以来,全球范围的国际直接投资急剧增长,从1985年的470亿美元增至1989年的1320亿美元。1985～1989年间,尽管发展中国家的国际直接投资绝对量有所增加,但,其增长幅度却远远落后于发达国家;国际资本流动的有利格局是在发达国家特别是在美国、日本和西欧之间对向流动,流向发展中国家的投资十分有限,许多发展中国家仍面临资金匮乏的严峻局面。进入90年代,国际直接投资更加扩大。此外,对发展中国家的直接投资出现了地区高度集中的特点,     

外商投资软环境浅析

一、对投资软环境的正确认识二次世界大战以后,西方主要资本主义国家的对外直接投资纷纷从原来的殖民地和半殖民地的发展中国家撤走,转而投向经济发展程度较高,收入水平与之相近的其它发达国家。而今,这样的趋势依然在发展之中,世界上三分之二的国际直接投资主要集中于发达国家和地区,而不是在工资水平低、地价便宜、税收从优、投资利润率高的发展中国家和地区。我国是一个较为典型的发展中国家,改革开放后的几年中,引进外资工作取得了可喜的成就,但其发展速度一直十分缓慢。日本的对华投资增长率足以说明这一点。     

亚太地区吸引外资政策的新动向

自1982年爆发国际债务危机以来,发达国家和国际商业银行对发展中国家的贷款明显减少,官方发展援助停滞不前。1987年上半年,发展中国家在国际资本市场的借款仅为144亿美元,净资本流入继续下降。发达国家提供的官方发展援助依然大大低于占其国民生产总值0.7％的指标。与此同时,由于发达国家经济的低速增长以及新技术革命的发展,发达国家直接投资在发展中国家总生产、就业与出口中所占比重,亦呈现减缓趋势。     

外向型FDI能促进母国的对外贸易吗?——基于69个国家和地区样本的GMM检验

对外直接投资对母国经济的诸多方面有正面的影响。文章选取41个发展中国家和地区以及28个发达国家和地区2002-2011年的观测样本,实证考察外向型FDI对母国对外贸易的影响。实证结果发现,不管是在发达国家样本还是在发展中国家样本,在控制了外向型FDI的内生性之后,外向国际直接投资存量对母国的进出口贸易总额没有显著影响。     

Do China＇s Outward Direct Investors Prefer Countries with High Political Risk？ An International and Empirical Comparison

This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, we investigate China ＇s political risk distribution and political risk index （PRI）. Our results indicate that China ＂s political risk index was ranked 48th among 153 economies in 2011, in the lower risk level of the PRI spectrum. In an international comparison of political risk distribution, the proportion of Chinese outward direct investment （ODI） among countries with high political risk is less than the world average. The Chinese ODI political risk index has significantly improved and remains lower than the world average. To improve Chinese ODI PRI, the Chinese Government should continue to implement differentiation strategies and to offer official development assistance to improve the investment environment in developing countries and reduce political risk.     

The link between entrepreneurship and informal investment: An international comparison

This study explores the link between entrepreneurship and informal investment. Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data, we examine what types of individuals invest in new businesses. The results reveal that individuals who engage in entrepreneurial activity are, on average, three times more likely to invest in new businesses than those who do not. We also find that individuals with entrepreneurial networks are more likely to invest in new businesses. Moreover, we present estimation results for the odds ratio of business ownership/management and informal investment, as well as of entrepreneurial networks and informal investment, in each country. We find that the link between entrepreneurship and informal investment differs across countries. Specifically, while the proportion of individuals who start businesses or engage in informal investment in Japan is lower than in other countries, the relationship between entrepreneurial propensity and informal investment in Japan is the greatest among 30 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, suggesting the presence of small-world phenomena in entrepreneurship in Japan.     

Are stricter investment rules contagious? Host country competition for foreign direct investment through international agreements

We argue that competitive diffusion is a driver of the trend toward international investment agreements with stricter investment rules, namely defensive moves of developing countries concerned about foreign direct investment (FDI) diversion in favor of competing host countries. Accounting for spatial dependence in the formation of bilateral investment treaties and preferential trade agreements that contain investment provisions, we find that the increase in agreements with stricter provisions on investor-to-state dispute settlement and pre-establishment national treatment is a contagious process. Specifically, a developing country is more likely to sign an agreement with weak investment provisions if other developing countries that compete for FDI from the same developed country have previously signed agreements with similarly weak provisions. Conversely, contagion in agreements with strong provisions exclusively derives from agreements with strong provisions that other FDI-competing developing countries have previously signed with a specific developed source country of FDI.     

The Determinants and Motivations of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Spatial Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

The study attempts to investigate the features and determinants of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) into 138 countries and Chinese firms' investment strategies over the 2003–2009 period using an augmented gravity model with spatial linkages. The respective evaluations of China's OFDI are indicative of the important role played by non-financial OFDI. At the same time, Chinese firms prefer to invest in high-tech industries in developed countries while also focusing on the extraction of natural resources around the world. The empirical findings show that the host country's economic size has a significantly positive effect in terms of promoting Chinese OFDI. Chinese firms favour a complex-vertical platform in the developed countries while they prefer a market potential foreign direct investment (FDI) surrounding the host developing countries and an export-platform FDI in the petroleum exporting countries based on the surrounding market potential effect and spatial effect. The fuel extraction motive plays a key role in China's OFDI in line with the realities of Chinese FDI strategies in recent years.     

跨国公司制造业R&D投资国别选择的实证研究——以美国跨国公司为例

本文以美国跨国公司为例,对跨国公司制造业海外R&D投资国别选择的影响因子进行了实证研究。结果表明,从世界范围看,跨国公司在东道国的FDI和东道国市场规模是影响跨国公司R&D投资的主要因子;仅就发展中国家而言,东道国市场规模并不影响跨国公司R&D投资;跨国公司的产业类别不同,其R&D投资国别选择的影响因子亦有差异。     

Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows: The Role of Governance Infrastructure

It is widely argued that a country’s economic performance over time is determined to a great extent by its political, institutional and legal environment. We refer to these institutions and policies as the governance infrastructure of a country. We utilize newly developed indices to examine the effects of governance infrastructure on both foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and outflows for a broad sample of developed and developing countries over 1995–97. In addition, we examine the role of other forms of infrastructure including human capital and the environment. The results clearly indicate that governance infrastructure is an important determinant of both FDI inflows and outflows. Investments in governance infrastructure not only attract capital, but also create the conditions under which domestic multinational corporations emerge and invest abroad. It would appear that investments in governance infrastructure are subject to diminishing returns, so that the benefits, in terms of inflows, are most pronounced for smaller and developing economies.     

中国投资是东道国内部冲突的抑制剂还是催化剂

随着国家内部冲突取代了国家间战争成为集体政治暴力的主要形式,对内部冲突中国际维度的关注促使人们思考以国际投资为代表的全球化与跨国企业的影响。从理论上看,国际投资可能会引发冲突,也可能会降低冲突发生的可能性。中国虽然是全球第二大对外直接投资(OFDI)国,但研究中国OFDI对东道国内部冲突影响的实证文献几乎没有。作者基于2004—2016年中国对115个发展中国家的直接投资数据,实证研究了中国OFDI对东道国爆发内部冲突的影响及其作用机制。结果显示,中国对发展中国家的OFDI显著降低了当地爆发内部冲突的概率,而全球第一大OFDI国美国对发展中国家的OFDI对当地爆发内部冲突的抑制作用则不明显。在影响机制上,中国对发展中国家的OFDI显著降低了当地的失业率,有助于增加民众参与武装冲突的机会成本,降低叛乱行为的合法性与成功率,进而减少东道国内部冲突的爆发。以上发现体现出中国投资对东道国内部稳定性的贡献。但这并不意味着可以忽视中国企业“走出去”过程中出现的一些问题。     

发达国家跨国并购对发展中国家的借鉴意义

跨国并购是跨国企业参与竞争的重要方式。文章搜集大量数据,对发达国家和发展中国家的跨国并购规模、行业和地区分布进行研究,提出发展中国家跨国并购存在产业分布过于第二产业,地区主要分布在发达国家等特点。发展中国家应该根据自身的优势,注重第二产业的发展,逐渐向第三产业转变,根据各区位特点选择跨国并购的地区。政府应该完善法律法规,促进金融市场发展,创造良好的投资环境;为企业提供必要的咨询和指导。同时,企业也应该加强人才培养、技术研发以增强自身的竞争力。     

Is the relationship between foreign direct investment and trade different across developed and developing countries? Evidence from Korea

Empirical studies that pool data from developed and developing countries may conflate the separate roles played. The pooled coefficient estimates may significantly misrepresent the true relationships. This paper analyses the impact of outward and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between Korea and developed and developing countries on Korean exports in 12 manufacturing sectors over the 1988–2006 period. The evidence suggests that the outward FDI to developing countries is likely to increase Korean exports to those countries than FDI to developed countries likely to increase exports to developed countries. Thus, pooling investment flows can lead to incorrect inferences.     

腐败控制、私人部门参与基础设施提供与反贫困效应——来自发展中国家的经验证据(1996-2014)

惩治腐败和消除贫困始终是广大发展中国家面临的重要任务。文章基于1996年到2014年138个发展中国家的数据，探索了腐败控制降低一国贫困率的新机制，即促进私人部门参与基础设施提供。我们发现：第一，腐败控制显著促进了私人部门参与基础设施提供；第二，私人部门参与基础设施提供显著降低了发展中国家的贫困率；第三，"中介效应"分析显示，腐败控制是通过促进私人部门参与基础设施提供进而降低一国贫困率的。文章的发现是对发展中国家腐败与贫困关系研究的一个有益补充，不但有助于理解私人部门参与基础设施提供的制度基础，也有助于发展中国家设计反贫困的公共政策。