矿业企业境外资源风险管理的“道”与“术”

勘查风险、储量风险、技术风险以及诚信风险,是中企并购海外矿产资源尤需重视的风险。对此,企业应规范境外并购流程,做实前期调查工作,并在交易机制设置中嵌入风险管理手段。     

跨国公司模式下外汇风险管理体系的策略建议

<正>随着中国企业国际化步伐的加快,特别是国家"一带一路"建设的推进,越来越多的中国企业通过投资、并购等方式在海外设立子公司及分支机构,布局海外实体产业,并逐步成长为跨国企业集团。近年来,全球经济金融环境变化不确定性增加,新兴市场国家汇率波动幅度扩大,中国企业集团如何构建适合自身特点的外汇风险管理体系,显得尤为迫切。外汇风险管理面临的主要问题中国跨国企业集团开展外汇风险管理     

政府规制视角下企业海外并购问题研究

鉴于目前在海外并购活动中发达国家政府的规制体系相对健全,本文基于对发达国家企业海外并购的政府规制行为进行系统梳理,探讨了新形势下我国企业海外并购面临的机遇与挑战及应采取的政府规制措施.本文的主要结论是：在海外并购东道国政府不断加大国家安全审查力度、国际市场波动加剧及企业海外并购整合控制难度加大的背景下,促进我国企业海外并购应不断完善海外并购的法律法规体系、强化规制部门对海外并购的引导与协调、加大海外并购政策支持力度、加强海外并购中介服务机构建设.     

浅析我国企业海外并购的风险和对策

我国企业海外并购的数量和金额逐年递增,但进程并不顺利,我国企业海外并购成功率仍然处于一个偏低的水平,失败的教训较多。我国企业海外并购面临市场、政治法律、管理经营、外汇和财务风险,因此,我国企业海外并购应牢记海外并购的经验教训,认真筛选海外并购的重点国家,鼓励企业用人民币进行海外并购等。     

浅析中国资源型企业海外并购风险

在世界经济一体化和全球化得进程中,在"走出去"政策的指引下,为了缓解我国日益扩大的矿产资源需求缺口,不少中国资源企业加入到跨国并购的热潮中去.本文重点从我国资源企业的技术水平和风险管理能力等角度阐述了我国海外企业并购中所存在的风险,并就在后金融危机条件下如何应对相关风险提出了个人的看法,以期能够给即将进行跨国并购的企业一些启迪.     

深度观察

中国企业海外并购渐入佳境 在2009年中国企业海外并购中,联合并购方式兴起、民营企业并购增加、品牌和知识产权并购升温等新动向很值得关注,显示出中国企业海外并购渐入佳境。     

浅析中国资源型企业海外并购风险

在世界经济一体化和全球化得进程中,在"走出去"政策的指引下,为了缓解我国日益扩大的矿产资源需求缺口,不少中国资源企业加入到跨国并购的热潮中去。本文重点从我国资源企业的技术水平和风险管理能力等角度阐述了我国海外企业并购中所存在的风险,并就在后金融危机条件下如何应对相关风险提出了个人的看法,以期能够给即将进行跨国并购的企业一些启迪。     

中国企业海外并购热潮下的“冷”思考——基于TCL集团并购法国汤姆逊公司彩电业务的分析

近年来中国企业海外并购呈现出持续活跃的趋势,然而海外并购的成功率却并不高。在海外并购出现热潮的情况下,以TCL集团并购汤姆逊公司的经典案例来剖析中国企业在海外并购过程中所存在的问题,在冷静分析的基础上提出相应的对策建议,以便为中国企业海外并购的对外直接投资行为提供有益的借鉴。     

国外并购实践中的风险管理

成功的企业并购可以创造价值,也有大量并购失败而损毁价值的案例,加强并购的风险管理日趋重要.国外成熟资本市场经过上百年的发展,探索出一系列行之有效的风险管理技巧.本文探讨国外并购实践中常见的并购风险分类与来源,以及在并购的不同阶段中的各种常用的具体风险管理措施和工具.有助我们对并购风险管理的认识,从中获得启示和借鉴其成功经验.     

我国海外并购融资现状分析及对策初探

企业海外并购成为我国跨国直接投资高速增长的重要支柱,而海外并购所需巨额融资对于并购成败有着至关重要的作用,进一步发展我国海外并购融资市场意义重大。本文着重对我国海外并购融资现状、存在的问题进行分析,并在此基础上,从政策及金融业的综合层面提出了进一步发展海外并购融资的建议。     

Multidimensional risk and risk dependence

Evaluating multiple sources of risk is an important problem with many applications in finance and economics. In practice this evaluation remains challenging. We propose a simple non-parametric framework with several economic and statistical applications. In an empirical study, we illustrate the flexibility of our technique by applying it to the evaluation of multidimensional density forecasts, multidimensional Value at Risk and dependence in risk.     

Model risk of risk models

This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk forecast models produce similar risk readings; hence, model risk is typically negligible. However, the disagreement between the various candidate models increases significantly during market distress, further frustrating the reliability of risk readings. Finally, particular conclusions on the underlying reasons for the high model risk and the implications for practitioners and policy makers are discussed.     

Crisis risk and risk management

We assess the state of knowledge about crisis risk and its implications for risk management. Data that became available after the global financial crisis show that some types of crises are predictable when accounting for interactions between risks. However, other types of crises do not seem predictable. There is no evidence that the frequency of economic and financial crises is increasing. While data show that an economic crisis is more likely following a political crisis, there is no comparable evidence for climate events. Strategies that increase firm operational and financial flexibility reduce the adverse impact of crises on firms.     

Termination risk and managerial risk taking

We test the hypothesis that managers who face a high termination risk make less risky investments than the managers who face a low termination risk. A 10% increase in our measure of termination risk is associated with a 5%–23% decline in stock returns volatility for the median firm in our sample. We also find that for CEOs who are more likely to be fired in the event of investment failure, the inhibiting effect of termination risk appears to offset the positive effect of convexity of managerial compensation on managerial risk taking. These results are robust to alternative definitions of forced turnover and various measures of firm performances.     

Any regulation of risk increases risk

We show that any objective risk measurement algorithm mandated by central banks for regulated financial entities will result in more risk being taken by those financial entities than would otherwise be the case. Furthermore, the risks taken by the regulated financial entities are far more systemically concentrated than they would have been otherwise, making the entire financial system more fragile. This result leaves three options for the future of financial regulation: (1) continue regulating by enforcing risk measurement algorithms at the cost of occasional severe crises, (2) regulate more severely and subjectively by fully nationalizing all financial entities, or (3) abolish all central banking regulations, including deposit insurance, thus allowing risk to be determined by the entities themselves and, ultimately, by their depositors through voluntary market transactions, rather than by the taxpayers through enforced government participation.     

Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.     

From counting risk to making risk count: Boundary-work in risk management

For two decades, risk management has been gaining ground in banking. In light of the recent financial crisis, several commentators concluded that the continuing expansion of risk measurement is dysfunctional (Power, 2009, Taleb, 2007). This paper asks whether the expansion of measurement-based risk management in banking is as inevitable and as dangerous as Power and others speculate. Based on two detailed case studies and 53 additional interviews with risk-management staff at five other major banks over 2001–2010, this paper shows that relentless risk measurement is contingent on what I call the “calculative culture” (Mikes, 2009a). While the risk functions of some organizations have a culture of quantitative enthusiasm and are dedicated to risk measurement, others, with a culture of quantitative scepticism, take a different path, focusing instead on risk envisionment, aiming to provide top management with alternative future scenarios and with expert opinions on emerging risk issues. In order to explain the dynamics of these alternative plots, I show that risk experts engage in various kinds of boundary-work (Gieryn, 1983, 1999), sometimes to expand and sometimes to limit areas of activity, legitimacy, authority, and responsibility.     

Five caveats for risk–risk analysis

Risk analysis should be symmetrical in the sense that when evaluating an option for decision-making, we assess the risks that it may increase in the same way as those that it may decrease. However, implementing such symmetry is not always easy. In this contribution, five complications that have to be dealt with are introduced and briefly discussed: (1) We need to take all types of advantages and disadvantages into account, not only the risks. (2) There is more than one way to weigh risks against each other. (3) Decision-makers may legitimately put more weight on the direct effects of their decisions than on more indirect and uncertain effects, in particular, if the latter fall outside of their area of responsibility. (4) When a trade-off between risks is unsatisfactory, we should search for innovative solutions that make the trade-off unnecessary. (5) An exclusive focus on risks does not solve the incommensurability problem.     

Bond risk premia and realized jump risk

We find that augmenting a regression of excess bond returns on the term structure of forward rates with an estimate of the mean realized jump size almost doubles the R² of the forecasting regression. The return predictability from augmenting with the jump mean easily dominates that offered by augmenting with options-implied volatility and realized volatility from high-frequency data. In out-of-sample forecasting exercises, inclusion of the jump mean can reduce the root mean square prediction error by up to 40%. The incremental return predictability captured by the realized jump mean largely accounts for the countercyclical movements in bond risk premia. This result is consistent with the setting of an incomplete market in which the conditional distribution of excess bond returns is affected by a jump risk factor that does not lie in the span of the term structure of yields.     

Communication of risk assessment information to risk managers

This article describes the results of a two-phase study of risk communication between risk assessors and risk managers (including policy makers). The first phase consisted of telephone interviews with 30 air quality risk managers from all levels (18 from local, state, and regional offices, and 12 from national offices). The second phase involved a focus group with 11 senior EPA risk managers representing a broad range of EPA national offices and programmes. The two-hour focus group elicited responses from the risk managers to specific examples of videotaped risk information created by agency risk assessors. The risk managers indicated their interests in hearing both qualitative and quantitative information about risk and emphasized the importance of discussing other information about the decision context. Similar responses to the videotaped risk information were elicited from a class of students at the Harvard School of Public Health. This exploratory work suggests that to better inform risk managers, risk assessors must also appreciate and present the broader context of the decision, and they must convey how uncertainties and weaknesses in the assessment may influence stakeholder perceptions of risk and the effectiveness of different risk management options. Further research on how to communicate risk information to risk managers is recommended.