“二孩”政策下浙江省人口结构的预测研究

文章以1990—2015年浙江省人口普查数据为依据,结合浙江省的经济、文化等特点,对浙江省全面实施"二孩"政策后,育龄女性的总和生育率进行预测。在此基础上,建立人口年龄移算法与莱斯利矩阵方程相结合的预测模型,分析在不同生育意愿下,浙江省未来各年龄段的人口数量及人口结构,这对推行人口政策,实现合理的人口结构和规模具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

全面二孩政策对人口与就业的影响研究

基于云南省2010年第六次人口普查数据进行人口预测,通过对比2011-2015年期间的实际人口数据和预测数据得出一个修正系数,并以此为参照将2016年的人口预测结果进行适当地修正作为人口预测基础数据.结果表明:云南自全面二孩生育政策实施,将在5年后的时间达到人口出生高峰,此后人口增长趋于减缓,并在2045年左右进入人口负增长阶段.劳动力人口规模在2026年以前持续增长,此后开始下降,劳动力人口抚养负担增加.“全面二孩”生育政策虽然在一定程度上缓解了人口老龄化速度,但并不能从根本上扭转人口老龄化的发展趋势,还需从社会制度层面解决人口老龄化问题.全面二孩政策放开带来的短期出生人口高峰,刺激了新的消费需求、扩大了城市就业空间,但也不可避免地对个体职业生涯规划产生影响,尤其是女性职工在事业发展方面可能会受到明显的阻碍作用,育龄女性劳动者完成生育后再次集中进入劳动力市场重新择业,女性就业岗位开发、就业培训和就业服务等给人力资源和社会保障部门提出了严峻挑战.     

从人口老龄化探析调整徐州市城区生育政策的建议

徐州作为江苏省的人口大市,已经全面步入老龄化社会。人口老龄化对徐州的社会经济发展造成多方面的影响。从中国的情形看,计划生育带来的人口出生率下降是导致人口老化的最主要原因,适当改变生育政策的可以加速或延缓人口老龄化的过程。笔者主张,科学调整徐州主城区生育政策,把现行的追求低生育率政策平稳过渡为"低生育率水平与调控人口年龄结构质量并举"的政策,最大限度地发挥计划生育政策的积极作用,将计划生育政策所带来的消极作用限制在最小的范围内。     

新政策下中国人口结构变化与预测分析

文章以生育政策、城市化率、出生率、经济发展水平为解释变量,建立我国总和生育率的多元回归模型,将该模型导入到人口发展方程中组建联立方程模型。假设我国继续实行计划生育政策、"单独二孩"政策、"全面二胎"政策,分析三种情况下的人口变化,比较得出继续实行"全面二胎"政策,可以使人口结构会向平衡的自然更替水平发展。     

新时期人口发展面临的问题与应对策略

当前,我国人口发展面临着独生子女家庭养老负担过重、低收入家庭独生子女教育问题突出、"失独家庭"的物质与精神保障双重缺失、少数民族计划生育问题凸显等一系列问题,需要政府积极应对。未来的政策调整要着重提高养老保障水平和政策针对性,要适当向低收入独生子女家庭提供教育补贴,要出台综合保障措施保障"失独家庭",完善少数民族计划生育政策,认真贯彻落实"单独两孩"政策。     

二孩政策对我国人口结构的影响研究

文章通过建立基于灰色预测模型和Leslie模型的人口规模、人口结构预测模型,分析了二孩政策对我国人口规模、人口结构的影响,并从强化生育政策改革监督机制和完善养老保障体系角度给出了我国人口发展合理化的生育政策建议,对我国生育政策改革具有很强的现实意义。     

持续的低生育率对中国社会长期发展的影响

中国自1978年推行改革开放,35年来,随着中国经济社会持续发展,以及40年计划生育工作实践,妇女生育水平也降到历史低位。妇女生育率持续走低已有20年历史,其对人口变动的影响,将对中国经济社会长期发展产生深刻且持久的影响。生育率持续走低,对中国人口变动影响在于,每年净增人口逐步减少,中国正在向人口负增长迈进;人口老化的增长速度在加快,少子化     

中国是否进入低生育率陷阱?——基于对低生育率陷阱理论的探讨

"低生育率陷阱"理论认为,低生育率具有人口学、社会学和经济学三个自我强化机制,生育水平一旦降到1.5以下将很难回升.近年来,世界范围内众多国家生育率回升的事实质疑了该理论,挑战了它本身的一些论证和证据."低生育率陷阱"说法可能只是对短期内生育率变动现象的总结,还不能归纳为规律.中国目前的生育水平在临界值1.5以上,尚未陷入"低生育率陷阱",伴随着生育政策的调整以及未来进度效应的减弱,生育率在未来一段时期内会出现回升而不是下降,所以断言中国已进入"低生育率陷阱"或面临"低生育率陷阱"的严重风险还为时过早.     

陕西育龄人群二孩生育意愿研究

"全面两孩"政策实施后,以调查问卷和实地走访的方式深入了解陕西育龄人群对"全面两孩"政策的态度和人们的生养意愿.在收回的1361份有效问卷中陕西育龄人群想要生养两个孩子的比例为54.81%,同时育龄人群的生养意愿主要受职业状况、现有孩子数、家庭年收入水平、受教育程度的影响,其中育龄人群的受教育程度的影响力较小.     

新时期人口发展面临的问题与应对策略

当前,我国人口发展面临着独生子女家庭养老负担过重、低收入家庭独生子女教育问题突出、“失独家庭”的物质与精神保障双重缺失、少数民族计划生育问题凸显等一系列问题,需要政府积极应对。未来的政策调整要着重提高养老保障水平和政策针对性,要适当向低收入独生子女家庭提供教育补贴,要出台综合保障措施保障“失独家庭”,完善少数民族计划生育政策,认真贯彻落实“单独两孩”政策。     

Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost 5%) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by 2%). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers' employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to 5%) in the absence of the change in child deductions.     

Simulating population development under new fertility policy in China based on system dynamics model

Fertility policy in China has been adjusted frequently in the past years by proposing innovative reformations because of various population crises. Aiming at relieving the population ageing, two-child fertility policy was implemented this year. The effect of new fertility policy is urgent to be checked. The system dynamics model is established on the basis of Song Jian population development equation, then simulation experiments are made for testing the new fertility policy. The results show that total population will peak at 1.448 billion in 2022 and reduce to 0.961 billion in 2050 under the regulation of the new fertility policy. However, population structure can only be moderate optimized, cannot be solved essentially. Furthermore, according to the comparative analyses among three different possible fertility policies, the two-child fertility policy enacted in china is verified to be reasonable. Finally, the sensitivity analysis on the willingness of having the second child of fertile women is made. Therefore, some specific measures are proposed as important suggestions for the fertility policy tracking.     

Joint estimation of sequential labor force participation and fertility decisions using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques

We analyze the effect of children on the labor supply of married women in a framework that accounts for the endogeneity of labor market and fertility decisions, for the heterogeneity of the effects of children and their correlation with the fertility decisions, and for the correlation of sequential labor market decisions. Women with stronger propensity for market work have fewer children, work more before the first birth, and face larger negative effects of children. The total effect of a child remains considerable long after birth; prior birth-related reductions in labor supply account for a significant share of the total effect.     

Dragon Children: Identifying the Causal Effect of the First Child on Female Labour Supply with the Chinese Lunar Calendar*

Instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the effect of fertility on female labour supply have only been able to identify the causal effect of second and higher parity children. This study uses exogenous variation in fertility caused by the Chinese lunar calendar to identify the effect of the first child. Additionally, weighting formulas are presented to interpret IV estimates as weighted average treatment effects in the case of multiple endogenous variables, which are useful when children vary in intensity by both number and age. The effect of the first child is found to be much greater than that of other children.     

Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts*

In recent years Statistics Netherlands has published several stochastic population forecasts. The degree of uncertainty of the future population is assessed on the basis of assumptions about the probability distribution of future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions on fertility are based on an analysis of historic forecasts of the total fertility rate (TFR), on time‐series models of observations of the TFR, and on expert knowledge. This latter argument‐based approach refers to the TFR distinguished by birth order. In the most recent Dutch forecast the 95% forecast interval of the total fertility rate in 2050 is assumed to range from 1.2 to 2.3 children per woman.     

Can child care policy encourage employment and fertility?: Evidence from a structural model

We develop a structural model of female employment and fertility which accounts for intertemporal feedback effects between these two outcomes. To identify the effect of financial incentives on employment and fertility we exploit variation in the tax and transfer system, which differs by employment state and number of children. Specifically, we simulate in detail the effects of the tax and transfer system, including child care costs. The model provides estimates of the structural preferences of women that can be used to study the effect of various policy reforms. Results show that increasing child care subsidies, conditional on employment, increases the labor supply of all women as well as the fertility rates of the childless and highly educated women.     

Enticing the Stork: Can we Evaluate Pro‐Natal Policies Before Having Children?

Aside from immigration, the only meaningful demographic lever available to policymakers attempting to moderate the rate of ageing is the birth rate. This article departs from previous analyses of pro‐natal policies by studying determinants of pro‐natal options ex ante, which represents an advantage for policymakers looking to craft policies with prior knowledge of whether or not a demographic policy will have a significant effect. Our multinomial regression model for a US sample involving college students shows that the preferred choice of pro‐natal incentive is dependent on gender, economic class, number of planned children and migrant status. We find that females are more likely than males to choose any pro‐natal incentive over no incentive. The highest odds for increasing planned number of children are for maternity leave and parental leave options. Respondents associating themselves with the poorest economic class are more likely to choose daycare or government grant as pro‐natal options.     

Gender‐Biased Breastfeeding in Egypt: Examining the Fertility Preference Hypotheses of Jayachandran and Kuziemko (2011)

Jayachandran and Kuziemko (Why do mothers breastfeed girls less than boys? Evidence and implications for child health in India. Quarterly Journal of Economics 2011; 126 (3): 1485–1538) develop and empirically validate a theory showing son preference in India generates ‘passive’ parental bias against girls in breastfeeding due to gender‐differentiated birth spacing and fertility stopping. I scientifically replicate their empirical exercises to test the validity of the theory in Egypt, where there is also high prevailing son preference, but little research on its implications for child health investments. I additionally examine whether using the exclusive breastfeeding rate as an alternative outcome yields supportive evidence for the theory. I find the theory is strongly supported by empirical results from Egyptian data, bolstering its policy relevance for developing countries besides India. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The dynamod model of student and teacher population growth

DYNAMOD II is a computerized Markov-type model which calculates data for 140 population groups over selected intervals of time. These population groups are crossclassified as to sex, race (2 categories), age (6 categories), educational status (3 levels of students and teachers respectively, as well as elementary and secondary school dropouts), and an “other” category. The model employs over 832 transition probabilities to cycle the population groups. Independent birth projections are added to the appropriate sex-race categories after each interaction.

The model is programmed for the RCA 3301 and GE time-sharing computer systems. On the GE system, a data file arrangement permits on-line access to any of the inputs or probabilities. In addition, user options regarding the desired amount of detailed output are available.

DYNAMOD II can provide the educational community with estimates of the impact on the educational population of proposed policy changes or of sudden shifts in the structure of the educational system. For example, if policymakers wish to know what effect will be produced by a policy designed to decrease the elementary-school teacher turnover by one percent, DYNAMOD II can supply not only information on the new levels of teacher projections, but also can provide estimates of the rate at which these adjustments will take place. Not only are these estimates possible for the various tiers of student and teacher structures in the model, but changes outside the educational system, such as in birth and death rates can be handled as well. It follows that the impact of policy changes on policy tools, such as the student-teacher ratio, can also be estimated with the use of DYNAMOD II.